Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 3

[Hivemind]

I am not trying to say people shouldn't debate and express their own opinions. I'm just saying given the Capitals track record, I trust their Pro Scouting staff.

Care to at least elaborate as to why you trust them on this particular decision? Or else you're not really adding much to the conversation.

After all, this is the same pro scouting staff that (for better or worse) targeted Kovalchuk, Panik, Hagelin, Jensen, and Gudas since the Cup (essentially treading water), and had some notable misses before the Cup as well (Mike Weber, Curtis Glencross, Tim Gleason, Mike Richards etc). I think they're a good scouting/evaluation department that has correctly identified both some diamonds in the rough and some higher profile acquisitions, but I don't think they're above reproach.

 

[Hivemind]

The internet said Schultz did better without Jack Johnson

Jack Johnson isn't here

Schultz only spent 23% of his ice time with Jack Johnson. That excuse is pretty over played.

 

[txpd]

That's fine, but what's the point of having a discussion forum if all people are going to do is defer to the club's scouts?

I think its fair to suggest that the team has reasons for what they are doing and that we are not privy to them. Were we, we might understand a lot better. I recall the general joy in the trade for Kovalchuk with many defending him to the last. He was an epic bust. Why did the Caps do that? Sometimes you can make a good guess. Sometimes its hard to guess. I dont get this Schultz thing. I dont like him. What it does do for me is signal a change in how the Caps do things.

When Trotz showed up Carlson was skating shutdown duty with Alzner. Niskanen was supposed to be a second tier puck mover. Not a defensive stalwart. Nobody saw Carlson as an elite offensive player. Shortly into the Trotz tenure Carlson is loading up points on a 2nd pair and Niskanen is leading a legit shutdown pair and becoming a core member of the team.

Here, I am guessing Laviolette needed more offense than what Jensen could provide in the top 4. My read is that Schultz is not going to be playing the Jensen role and that Orlov and Carlson's roles are going to change.

But what do i know? MacLellan has a solid track record.

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

Schultz isn't some rookie. He's laced up his skates before. And plenty of us watch hockey beyond just the Capitals.

A couple brief samples from this past playoffs (Schultz on the ice for the GWG against @ 3:45, one of 4 Pens just milling around puck watching in the crease when they get beat)


Schultz fails to challenge Byron on entry, let's Kotkaniemi slip behind him leads to goal against (starting at 0:17), caught flat footed at the opposite blueline, three Canadiens beat him back to the zone - not great for a D who's strength used to be his skating (starting at 4:13), also on the ice for Petry's OT GWG

Should we pull up some of Carlson's awful defensive plays as well? We get it, you hate Schultz and hate the signing. I'm willing to see what he looks like under Lavi, who I'm 1000% sure had his say on who was brought in to retool this defense. Schultz isn't going anywhere now so might as well get used to it.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I think its fair to suggest that the team has reasons for what they are doing and that we are not privy to them. Were we, we might understand a lot better. I recall the general joy in the trade for Kovalchuk with many defending him to the last. He was an epic bust. Why did the Caps do that? Sometimes you can make a good guess. Sometimes its hard to guess. I dont get this Schultz thing. I dont like him. What it does do for me is signal a change in how the Caps do things.

When Trotz showed up Carlson was skating shutdown duty with Alzner. Niskanen was supposed to be a second tier puck mover. Not a defensive stalwart. Nobody saw Carlson as an elite offensive player. Shortly into the Trotz tenure Carlson is loading up points on a 2nd pair and Niskanen is leading a legit shutdown pair and becoming a core member of the team.

Here, I am guessing Laviolette needed more offense than what Jensen could provide in the top 4. My read is that Schultz is not going to be playing the Jensen role and that Orlov and Carlson's roles are going to change.

But what do i know? MacLellan has a solid track record.

that is putting it mildly

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Care to at least elaborate as to why you trust them on this particular decision? Or else you're not really adding much to the conversation.

After all, this is the same pro scouting staff that (for better or worse) targeted Kovalchuk, Panik, Hagelin, Jensen, and Gudas since the Cup (essentially treading water), and had some notable misses before the Cup as well (Mike Weber, Curtis Glencross, Tim Gleason, Mike Richards etc). I think they're a good scouting/evaluation department that has correctly identified both some diamonds in the rough and some higher profile acquisitions, but I don't think they're above reproach.

I'll bite. I think Schultz fits how they're going to play under Laviolette. Schultz doesn't have great gap control and I don't think he's going to be Niskanen V2 but he is (or was, before injuries) an excellent skater with a strong outlet pass who would help them exit the zone quickly which is better for this team than packing it in and playing defense. I think he'll be an upgrade over Orlov QBing PP2. That said, I am very concerned that injuries zapped his mobility because if he can't activate from the blue line or exit the zone quickly he's going to be a liability. I am also wondering how end of game minutes get divvied up as he seems to be the weakest pure defender of the lot right now which isn't great if he's your projected 2RD

I very much disliked the Hagelin, Gleason, Glencross, and Weber acquisitions right off the bat and I really wasn't a fan of doubling down on Hagelin. I was excited about Gudas but that was a miss. Richards I thought would fight tooth and nail to save his career but I hadn't realized how far off the cliff he had already fallen. Kovalchuk seemed like it made a lot of sense and I think it would have made sense under different circumstances.

I'm cautiously optimistic about this one. I could be totally wrong but I think (or maybe subconsciously hope) he'll be a better fit than people are speculating he'll be.

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

Care to at least elaborate as to why you trust them on this particular decision? Or else you're not really adding much to the conversation.

After all, this is the same pro scouting staff that (for better or worse) targeted Kovalchuk, Panik, Hagelin, Jensen, and Gudas since the Cup (essentially treading water), and had some notable misses before the Cup as well (Mike Weber, Curtis Glencross, Tim Gleason, Mike Richards etc). I think they're a good scouting/evaluation department that has correctly identified both some diamonds in the rough and some higher profile acquisitions, but I don't think they're above reproach.

Geez idk maybe because our GM out together a cup winning team 2 years ago? Or perhaps our new coach is a cup winner himself and has been there 3 times total? Both have proven track records. There isn't a GM out there that hasn't made a bad move or 3. I see your Glencross and raise you a DSP. If Schultz ends up being the worst defenseman to ever put on a caps sweater, then be my guest, rip away. But the guy hasn't even set foot in DC yet and you're up in arms over how awful he is going to be.

 

[txpd]

that is putting it mildly

Can the fire MacLellan thread be far around the corner?

 

[txpd]

I'll bite. I think Schultz fits how they're going to play under Laviolette. Schultz doesn't have great gap control and I don't think he's going to be Niskanen V2 but he is (or was, before injuries) an excellent skater with a strong outlet pass who would help them exit the zone quickly which is better for this team than packing it in and playing defense. I think he'll be an upgrade over Orlov QBing PP2. That said, I am very concerned that injuries zapped his mobility because if he can't activate from the blue line or exit the zone quickly he's going to be a liability. I am also wondering how end of game minutes get divvied up as he seems to be the weakest pure defender of the lot right now which isn't great if he's your projected 2RD.

If my projection is correct that Carlson returns to shutdown duty, he and Dillon will get the lion's share of the late game with lead minutes. If the roster remains as it is, Jensen will move up and take the shifts with Orlov instead of Schultz. The Caps did this when Orpik was on the 3rd pair and Kempny with Carlson. Orpik took those last game shifts.

Late in games behind by a goal you might see Orlov and Carlson together because Ovechkin comes out as soon as the goalie is pulled in Orlov's spot

 

[Hivemind]

Should we pull up some of Carlson's awful defensive plays as well?

If you did, you'd be preaching to the choir on that one.

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

So cap tracker has us at about -1.3 million in space. How correct is that? There has to be something else coming right?

 

[Marshall]

So cap tracker has us at about -1.3 million in space. How correct is that? There has to be something else coming right?

I was fooling around with CapFriendly's Armchair GM thingie and with an extra forward (McMichael) and an extra D (either TVR or Fever, your choice) the Caps are still @ $135k over the cap. This can be finagled by moving a player from the main roster to Hershey, but it does show that the Caps are up against it. (This also includes Kempny on LTIR.)

Does feel like another move could be coming. I'd prefer it, personally.

 

[tenken00]

The Caps gave Siegenthaler a QO a week ago now. I wonder what the hold up is. Does Siegs think he can get more $ or term from the Caps or another team? Should be easy to work something out you would think.

 

[zappa4ever]

....
After all, this is the same pro scouting staff that (for better or worse) targeted Kovalchuk, Panik, Hagelin, Jensen, and Gudas since the Cup (essentially treading water), and had some notable misses before the Cup as well (Mike Weber, Curtis Glencross, Tim Gleason, Mike Richards etc).....

sorry but the underlined -- "treading water" since the Cup is hindsight horseshart,
there's been many stretches the last 2 years where the Caps looked like a Top 3 team in the league (weren't they 4th in pts. in 2018-19? )
2019 rd.1 v. CAR was 1 bounce/1 shot from advancing in a 20T gm7 and potentially facing the 2018-19 Isles and Bruins on the way, who knows how much further they would've gone
this year in the Bubble Playoffs it's unfair to draw much of a conclusion esp. when teams like PIT and EDM didn't even make it to 1st rd.

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

I was fooling around with CapFriendly's Armchair GM thingie and with an extra forward (McMichael) and an extra D (either TVR or Fever, your choice) the Caps are still @ $135k over the cap. This can be finagled by moving a player from the main roster to Hershey, but it does show that the Caps are up against it. (This also includes Kempny on LTIR.)

Does feel like another move could be coming. I'd prefer it, personally.

Thanks for the info. Cap manipulation isn't my forte. I'd like to see a third line addition so I hope something is in the works to free up some space. Lots of useful names still out there.

 

[895]

I don't love Mac's moves this past year.

Signing Panik, Hagelin for too much and too long.

Trading a third for Kovalchuk who not only sucked but was available for free...

Won't fault him on trading Stephenson or Burakovsky since those seemed like the correct moves at the time.

It's fair to question GMBM's track record of late. We are now two years removed from the cup and two first round exits to show for it. Can't bring up 2018 to defend Mac forever.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Can the fire MacLellan thread be far around the corner?

For some it’s already here (@Melkor).

or maybe I’m misreading the mindset

 

[caps4cup]

Care to at least elaborate as to why you trust them on this particular decision? Or else you're not really adding much to the conversation.

After all, this is the same pro scouting staff that (for better or worse) targeted Kovalchuk, Panik, Hagelin, Jensen, and Gudas since the Cup (essentially treading water), and had some notable misses before the Cup as well (Mike Weber, Curtis Glencross, Tim Gleason, Mike Richards etc). I think they're a good scouting/evaluation department that has correctly identified both some diamonds in the rough and some higher profile acquisitions, but I don't think they're above reproach.

They’ve also successfully scouted Eller, Connolly, Dowd, DSP, Orpik, Oshie, Williams and Niskanen. Kovalchuk was awful. That was a bad one. But off of last years team, Hagelin has been a 35 point forward that has drastically improved our PK. He’s been what he has pretty much always been... not sure what people expect from him. Panik and Jensen also struggled upon their arrivals but got much better at the end of last season and both have some encouraging analytics as well. Gudas started off well but then fell off a cliff. He was low-key really good in Philly and Florida still believed in him enough to give him a decent sized contract. I’m willing to bet he would have been a lot better under another coach, but it is part of the scouting staffs jobs to assess the players fit into the team/system as well. Overall, I think they’ve done a pretty damn good job to be honest. Not perfect, nobody is, but I think BMac and the scouting staff have done a good job with their acquisitions.

 

[SherVaughn30]

I don't love Mac's moves this past year.

Signing Panik, Hagelin for too much and too long.

Trading a third for Kovalchuk who not only sucked but was available for free...

Won't fault him on trading Stephenson or Burakovsky since those seemed like the correct moves at the time.

It's fair to question GMBM's track record of late. We are now two years removed from the cup and two first round exits to show for it. Can't bring up 2018 to defend Mac forever.

Reirden and the rest of the coaching staff screwed up a lot of roster, so that's why Kovalchuk didn't work out.

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

I don't love Mac's moves this past year.

Signing Panik, Hagelin for too much and too long.

Trading a third for Kovalchuk who not only sucked but was available for free...

Won't fault him on trading Stephenson or Burakovsky since those seemed like the correct moves at the time.

It's fair to question GMBM's track record of late. We are now two years removed from the cup and two first round exits to show for it. Can't bring up 2018 to defend Mac forever.

It's been 2 years lol. One of which was a shortened season and played in a bubble lol. When your GM delivered you your first cup, you get a longer leash than 2 years and one of which was a total cluster.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

That 3rd rounder for Kovy looks horrible after that’s what Schmidt went for

 

[tenken00]

It's been 2 years lol. One of which was a shortened season and played in a bubble lol. When your GM delivered you your first cup, you get a longer leash than 2 years and one of which was a total cluster.

I'm not saying MacLellan is the same, because I don't believe for even a nanosecond that they are... but Jim Rutherford was on cloud 9 after the 2016 and 2017 Cups..

 

[895]

It's been 2 years lol. One of which was a shortened season and played in a bubble lol. When your GM delivered you your first cup, you get a longer leash than 2 years and one of which was a total cluster.

No one is calling for him to be fired.

People are saying maybe we shouldn't defend every single move with "well I have faith in GMBM".

You know, a nuanced position.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't love Mac's moves this past year.

Signing Panik, Hagelin for too much and too long.

Trading a third for Kovalchuk who not only sucked but was available for free...

Won't fault him on trading Stephenson or Burakovsky since those seemed like the correct moves at the time.

It's fair to question GMBM's track record of late. We are now two years removed from the cup and two first round exits to show for it. Can't bring up 2018 to defend Mac forever.

I think this is fair (to question)....what have you done for me lately GMBM?

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don't love Mac's moves this past year.

Signing Panik, Hagelin for too much and too long.

Trading a third for Kovalchuk who not only sucked but was available for free...

Won't fault him on trading Stephenson or Burakovsky since those seemed like the correct moves at the time.

It's fair to question GMBM's track record of late. We are now two years removed from the cup and two first round exits to show for it. Can't bring up 2018 to defend Mac forever.

compared to the last 45 years, I think some of us can. 2yrs is nothing.