Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 7

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Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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I'm not saying that you're not right but the value is so off, that would be an embarrassing trade to make for the Caps. Similar to Hall for Larsson.
Parayko >> Larsson. Plus Parayko on his current $5.5M deal for the next 3 seasons is one of the best values in the league (it's basically the new John Carlson at $3.97M sweetheart deal).

This is much more RyJo for Seth Jones than Hall for Larsson.

That being said, I definitely wouldn't make that trade. The Caps won because of center depth, and giving away one of the most instrumental pieces of that center depth would be foolhardy. Additionally, Parayko would be an embarrassment of riches at RD, similar to when Shattenkirk was the 3RD. It would require a simultaneous move of either Carlson or Niskanen for it to really make any sense. Niskanen is the potential decline candidate (plus trading JC74 after he re-ups for 8 years would be a bad look for the franchise). In the event Nisky is traded, we're then thrusting one of Carlson or Parayko into the shutdown role, something that Carlson has struggled with in the past (and playing outside of that role brought JC74's overall game to a higher level) and Parayko has been somewhat shielded from by Pietrangelo.
 
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g00n

Retired Global Mod
Nov 22, 2007
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Arrogant in your ignorance, as ever. Do you think that hockey teams spend excessive amounts of time in their own defensive zone playing keep away?

I'll try to explain this real simple for you: in hockey, the puck starts in the middle of the ice, and then the players move it around after that. Sometimes a good way to do this is by using your hockey stick to pass to other players on your team, but another way to do it is to put the puck as faaaaaar down the ice as possible, then chase it and set traps for the other team. It would be considered "successful" if you were to generate scoring opportunities and goals for your team, and less "successful" if you don't manage to do that.

Now here's where this gets complicated, I know. The first method is what you would call "possession" traditionally, but it doesn't account for the fact that everything done in the second method is as intentional. Teams don't score from the defensive zone, so traditional "puck on stick" possession times don't matter when they count every failed breakout and well-defended, shot-less shift. Your scenario, which totally "happens all the time", well what's even all that wrong with it? You would complain non-stop if Lars Eller cycled for a minute without getting the puck off the perimeter, then gave up a quick chance going the other way. You definitely wouldn't think Eller deserves a pat on the back for a good effort and shrug your shoulders at the rest.

I used to say the same crap he says about "possession" maybe 10 years ago (when there were few caveats or alternative fancy stats), until I realized a few key factors:

1) It's mostly a semantic argument about the word "possession" and therefore more nitpicky and pedantic than clever.

2) There appears to be some value in accumulating shots, despite the outlier stories to the contrary (like the Caps vs MTL series). In the long run, with shooting percentages fairly stable the more you shoot (normal shots, not stat-padding) the more you should score, and the more you score the more you win (especially with the rest of the league trending that way, too).

3) Olde Tyme Hockeye with perpetual grinding is generally dead or on life support, and all the teams are using advanced stats to some degree (including official NHL stats), so no use in clinging to useless nostalgia like some angry old guy on a porch with a newspaper and landline who "doesn't do email or texting".

4) You don't have to join the "possession cult". You can pick and choose how you want to apply stats, if at all. It's not an all or nothing proposition anymore, as people are figuring out that you can't just construct stat-based lineups like it's a video game. Eye test + some stats + intelligent analysis = best case scenario.

5) Any team or player that just shoots bad shots to pad stats is operating outside the model the stats apply to and will be exposed when the losses and failures stack up. If during the course of NORMAL play, with no gaming of shot stats, most players have a range of shooting percentages then the increase in shots will also increase the quality of scoring chances that are being generated (by the players, system, coach, etc). Guys who are just shooting to shoot will be taking bad shots and find themselves with obvious red flags in their comparative stats when the pucks aren't going in, especially if they're shooting outside the team system which can lead to chances the other way and therefore no shot stat advantage.

6) Very few teams are ever going to have "real possession" 60 or 70 percent of the time, nevermind for a whole season, so looking at the finer details within that near-even split might be where some of the gamechangers are found. The line matchups and randomness of hockey means there will be shifts in flow all game long, including opportunities both ways. You hardly ever see an NHL team totally shut down the other team while playing keepaway all game. So does "real possession" really matter that much? Or is it more about tilting the ice to your advantage slightly and getting shots on net within a system that creates decent scoring chances so good things can happen?

7) Everyone has heard it before. Nobody cares.
 

Skrudland2Lomakin

Registered User
Jan 1, 2011
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I wonder if they end up doing anything.. they have to make a move this week for Djoos to come back no? But I feel they could easily just send Siegenthaler to Hershey

Any move that removes Siegenthaler from the roster is the wrong move, and frankly I feel like would tank the club house chemistry.

If you're one of the few guys actually busting you're hump right now how would it feel to watch the team move down one of the only players giving 100% every night and giving up his body for shots to keep a bunch of apathetic guys around.

The answer to Djoos coming back is not to take Siegenthaler out.
 

dillyboy93

Registered User
Dec 3, 2012
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Fourth period isn’t the greatest of sources no? Just wondering cause on their top 30 board it has the capitals as one of the teams interested, might explain the Kings scouts the last couple of games
 

Silky mitts

It’s yours boys and girls and babes let’s go!
Mar 9, 2004
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Fourth period isn’t the greatest of sources no? Just wondering cause on their top 30 board it has the capitals as one of the teams interested, might explain the Kings scouts the last couple of games
They/Pagnotta broke like every signing last year, I wonder what the plus would be in Burakovsky+ for Toffoli
 
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Melkor

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
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Parayko >> Larsson. Plus Parayko on his current $5.5M deal for the next 3 seasons is one of the best values in the league (it's basically the new John Carlson at $3.97M sweetheart deal).

This is much more RyJo for Seth Jones than Hall for Larsson.

That being said, I definitely wouldn't make that trade. The Caps won because of center depth, and giving away one of the most instrumental pieces of that center depth would be foolhardy. Additionally, Parayko would be an embarrassment of riches at RD, similar to when Shattenkirk was the 3RD. It would require a simultaneous move of either Carlson or Niskanen for it to really make any sense. Niskanen is the potential decline candidate (plus trading JC74 after he re-ups for 8 years would be a bad look for the franchise). In the event Nisky is traded, we're then thrusting one of Carlson or Parayko into the shutdown role, something that Carlson has struggled with in the past (and playing outside of that role brought JC74's overall game to a higher level) and Parayko has been somewhat shielded from by Pietrangelo.
Parayko is not even close to Seth Jones either in ceiling or performance. Different levels. If anything, I think Parayko already reached his ceiling while Jones is still developing and will eventually be a norris candidate year in and year out. Kuznetsov on the other hand is already pretty obviously outperforming Johansen if you look at their careers right now while being on pretty much the same contract.
 

Raikkonen

Dumb guy
Aug 19, 2009
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I wasnt high on Djoos at any moment, but hes proven by Cup. If you can add another capable D by sending Siege down - they should do just that.
 

dillyboy93

Registered User
Dec 3, 2012
597
23
Canada
Any move that removes Siegenthaler from the roster is the wrong move, and frankly I feel like would tank the club house chemistry.

If you're one of the few guys actually busting you're hump right now how would it feel to watch the team move down one of the only players giving 100% every night and giving up his body for shots to keep a bunch of apathetic guys around.

The answer to Djoos coming back is not to take Siegenthaler out.

Well yeah I wasnt trying to say they should send him down, I don't think they should for the same reasons you've stated. He deserves to be here
 

Skrudland2Lomakin

Registered User
Jan 1, 2011
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Pretty stupid response from a guy who can't neither win faceoff nor get his game going at the moment.
Is that not his point, he doesn't really care about winning faceoffs because it the grand scheme it's not truly important. There is no correlation between success and fo%. The top 5 teams in the NHL are PHI, TOR, CAL, STL, ANA.


You literally couldn't pick more of a random smattering of teams. Two top teams, two bottom dwellers, one middle of the road.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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New Bern, NC
The answer to Djoos coming back is not to take Siegenthaler out.

You are saying Djoos shouldn't play? You saying Orlov shouldn't play? You are saying Bowey should be traded?

6-74
2-9
44-29/34....22

One of Djoos or Seigenthaler isn't playing and one of Seigenthaler or Bowey is getting assigned. Bowey gets lost in waivers and Seigenthaler is free to go.
 

Melkor

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
5,251
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Auckland, New Zealand
Is that not his point, he doesn't really care about winning faceoffs because it the grand scheme it's not truly important. There is no correlation between success and fo%. The top 5 teams in the NHL are PHI, TOR, CAL, STL, ANA.


You literally couldn't pick more of a random smattering of teams. Two top teams, two bottom dwellers, one middle of the road.
It's not that having the best % in the dot is having direct impact on winning the Cup but more of a 92's infantile approach to details that 1st center of an NHL team should at least pay a close attention to because, as BMac said, sometimes it's not that importan to win a FO, sometimes it's critically needed at key points of the game. When your big guys can't do that...well, it's not good. Also Kuznetsov is not honest on the part where he says they immediately get the puck back if they lose the draw. You just need to watch at least a dozen games to see how often his line stuck in its own end or running around trying to get puck back.
 

McVechkin

Registered User
Jun 29, 2015
1,543
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Schenn is interesting in the fourth period top 30. I would consider overpaying for him big time but its all a moot point if Stl won't retain salary.

Burk is clearly the player you ship out for him.. which gives the blues a young talented RFA with cup winning experience that could benefit from a change of scenery... but thats likely not enough.. so you need to add with a pick or good prospect... but you also need to get Stl to retain salary.. Cap hits are Schenn @ 5,125,000 and Burk @ 3,000,000.. so not considering the immaterial amount of space the caps are accruing. they would need need to retain about 40%.. not sure Stl is in the market to have 2.125M in dead space for next year... but at the same time.. you can try to get creative and find another team to retain that cap hit (think Pens with brassard, ottawa and vegas last year).
 

Sam Spade

Registered User
May 4, 2009
27,484
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Maryland
Report posts that contain personal insults and posters that deliver them so the situation can be dealt with accordingly.

This is just like the last four days worth of calling people morons:


Give your head a shake. You think you can just throw a bunch of skilled players together and you will win. Hate to rain on your parade but it doesnt work that way.

They went back into the system that they used 2 years ago. Obviously you weren't paying attention.Yes you did make it up. And yes I do defend Holtby but I never said that he didnt benefit from he Trotz system. Everyone knows he did. He us still oiur best goaltender.

Now knock it off and stop trying to stir up ****. Geez you really can't help yourself. Can you?

Give your head a shake. It was all about the system.


That statement is completely untrue. Even an elite goalie will look bad if the team in front of him is bad.

Of course not,what a ridiculous comment. I never wish an injury to someone. I dont want too see him out with an injury. I want to see him playing well. It hasn't happened often this year.

Yes. And that's why we need him in the lineup. Most here don't seem to understand that.

How many times do I have to tell you
that corsi is not a possession stat. The stat actually has zero to do with possession. It is a shot attempts stat.
Is that your knowledge of the game. If you want to judge a particular skill of a player watch him play. Can you not tell by watching? Or do you need your stats?
Wow


I said Holtby is only as good as the team in front of him which indicates its about the system. And you could probably say that about any goalie.
You honestly just make **** up. You can't help yourself.
 
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