Salary Cap: CAP set to explode over next 3 seasons to 113M in 27/28

[MHO]

The Canadian dollar has been weak for a decade.

The Canadian dollar to US dollar ratio has slid from .75 to .70 in the past 5 years. But there are so many other forces in play affecting revenue:

1. The COVID debt that kept the cap relatively stagnant the past 3 seasons has been paid off
2. The Arizona money pit has been eliminated
3. Major new television deal in Canada that tripled from $500M a year to an estimated $1.5B a year
4. Emergence of hockey broadcast in the US on ESPN and TNT

So while a weak CAD doesn't help matters, it's not going to stop the cap from increasing significantly. It'll be interesting to see what Wirtz will spend without a TV deal or a decent team to sell tickets. Hopefully that won't matter in a year or 2.

 

[GIADF]

I think if he gets dealt it'll be in the offseason.

I'm hopeful that Ekblad walks and Florida wants to keep their window open now so they have interest in SJ.

Ekblad's hit is 7.5M so with the cap going up some the money should work out. Not sure who else they have they might be giving raises or if they'll be able to afford re-signing Bennett who will need a new deal too.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

The Canadian dollar to US dollar ratio has slid from .75 to .70 in the past 5 years. But there are so many other forces in play affecting revenue:

1. The COVID debt that kept the cap relatively stagnant the past 3 seasons has been paid off
2. The Arizona money pit has been eliminated
3. Major new television deal in Canada that tripled from $500M a year to an estimated $1.5B a year
4. Emergence of hockey broadcast in the US on ESPN and TNT

So while a weak CAD doesn't help matters, it's not going to stop the cap from increasing significantly. It'll be interesting to see what Wirtz will spend without a TV deal or a decent team to sell tickets. Hopefully that won't matter in a year or 2.

Tariff's have the potential to crush trade. I'm an Operations Manager with the railroad. Sixty percent of the freight we move is international. We're preparing for a huge dip in lifts because of tariffs that go into effect at midnight.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

The real winners would be the teams that already have locked up their high priced talent to long-term deals. A team like OTT would be in great cap shape moving forward as they have most of their core already locked up.

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

any idea what the floor looks like with those cap numbers?

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

The railroad has a down year at the end of January through the end of February because of Chinese New Year. If you are unaware the country takes like two weeks off.

They're a massive trade partner. Guys go from working 60+ hours to working 20. Things usually ramp up quickly by the end of February.

We've been telling our guys that OT may not be there for awhile shortly.

 

[Larmer83]

Tariff's have the potential to crush trade. I'm an Operations Manager with the railroad. Sixty percent of the freight we move is international. We're preparing for a huge dip in lifts because of tariffs that go into effect at midnight.

Which explains why intermodal freight for UNP has had an outsized year-over-year increase the last several months. A rush to get in the goods.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Just in time for another lockout

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

any idea what the floor looks like with those cap numbers?

At 113 million the floor would be roughly 86.5 million. The floor is just under 74% of the ceiling.

 

[Callidusblackhawk]

Just in time for another lockout

The CBA expires after next season. WOOOoooo

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Which explains why intermodal freight for UNP has had an outsized year-over-year increase the last several months. A rush to get in the goods.

Yes. Worked for Union Pacific before I jumped to Norfolk Southern three months ago. Made my bones with BNSF.

 

[kmwtrucks]

Yes. Worked for Union Pacific before I jumped to Norfolk Southern three months ago. Made my bones with BNSF.

which ramp?

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

which ramp?

I'm high up enough that this is a PM question.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Teams are getting an extra $7,500,000 in cap space next season.

Any team that can shed 2M, can add Seth Jones with no retention.

Exciting stuff.

 

[Malagahawks]

The thing is he will need an exte

If we're still bad he takes the one year deal for 11 million and he's walking into free agency at 25. No thanks.

I mean an extension next year after the ELC ends, hence the 3/30M question. Even at 3 years that contract would finish at his age 24 season, so maybe a 4 year bridge?

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

The thing is he will need an exte

I mean an extension next year after the ELC ends, hence the 3/30M question. Even at 3 years that contract would finish at his age 24 season, so maybe a 4 year bridge?

He'd be an RFA but he could just sign his qualifying offer giving him a 10% raise take eleven million and walk into UFA as a 25 year old superstar.

A four year bridge and he's just an UFA. You don't buy out cheap RFA years at market rate without getting at least a few UFA years at a discount because you're overpaying for the RFA years. 9.8x6 is what I'd open with and hope like hell he's got some Crosby crazy in him and he signs for his number.

 

[Callidusblackhawk]

Teams are getting an extra $7,500,000 in cap space next season.

Any team that can shed 2M, can add Seth Jones with no retention.

Exciting stuff.

Trading him at the draft for another 1st would be so hype.

 

[u2wojo]

Similar things were expected when Toews and Kane signed for 10.5 million.

That was more of a hope or expectation toward the middle or end of their 10.5 millionz Stunley blunders, while the projections coming out now are more based in facts about the next several season....the projection for the '25/26 cap is based almost all on stuff that has already occured (ie this seasons revenue which is 2/3rds already in the bank) and the '26/27 projection is based on the Canadian TV money which is virtually to the finish line. The cap is going up 25-30 million in the next 3 seasons and 20 of it is basically done deal at this point.

 

[Muffinalt]

This is great news for any Seth Jones trade prospects.

Surely you're more likely to trade for him now if you're a team like Colorado.

 

[u2wojo]

This is great news for any Seth Jones trade prospects.

Surely you're more likely to trade for him now if you're a team like Colorado.

It realy makes you wonder how they didn't get a deal done with Rantanen, but if their moving him (and our helping) opens up a Jones destination.....awesome.


Speaking of helping and retaining, I think this does put some perspective on the "value of cap space"

 

[Hawkaholic]

The Canadian dollar has been weak for a decade.

And probably only going to keep getting worse now.

 

[BHawk21]

This is great news for any Seth Jones trade prospects.

Surely you're more likely to trade for him now if you're a team like Colorado.

Manson Lyubushkin or Dumba are gunna be on the hawks here soon

 

[Toews2Bickell]

how much of a track record does the NHL have with meeting their own projections on the cap stuff, it always seems way too rosy of an outlook, whatever the cagr is on future numbers maybe cut it in half or use a historical rate for a more conservative outlook

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

how much of a track record does the NHL have with meeting their own projections on the cap stuff, it always seems way too rosy of an outlook, whatever the cagr is on future numbers maybe cut it in half or use a historical rate for a more conservative outlook

I don't ever remember the league going that far out into the future. They tend to keep it really close to the vest. They must have gotten some crazy projection on the Canadian TV contract, impact of gambling advertising, or something else, because that's a crazy increase.

 

[Giovi]

It realy makes you wonder how they didn't get a deal done with Rantanen, but if their moving him (and our helping) opens up a Jones destination.....awesome.


Speaking of helping and retaining, I think this does put some perspective on the "value of cap space"

More than likely they were thinking "There's no way we're paying this guy more than Nate".