Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign D Akito Hirose to 1-Year ELC

[kranuck]

If Hirose can handle second pairing minutes with Hronek, that is massive. Found money but not on the level of Aman or Wolanin. More similar to a Kuzmenko. A 2nd pairing LD on a sum 1M deal frees things up so much.

You can cheap out on QH’s partner because you can distribute the tough minutes more evenly.

The UFA they will likely sign in the offseason is can anchor a the 3rd pairing and all the wear and tear that relieves throughout the lineup.

And when injuries hit, as they inevitably will, then you can limp along with the kind of lineup we've had all season long. Or you can stack the top 4 and ride it out with our improved AHL depth.

The key question is whether Hirose/Hronek works against a heavy physical forecheck.

Will have to wait and see.

or they could not do that for once.

 

[MS]

Are there a lot of teams out there signing players of similar quality? I don't follow the league closely enough to have a solid idea but my impression is that the Canucks getting Sasson, Hirose and McWard is above average and well above "basic competency". Signing Kuzmenko was obviously a home run.

These NCAA UFA signings typically have very low hit rates so it's debatable whether being 'above average' at closing on multiple players is actually any sort of major positive.

Hirose looks he he has the potential to be a significant hit, though, and an outlier for this type of signing. So possible significant credit there, but the others seem pretty run-of-the-mill.

 

[credulous]

sasson and mcward aren't anything yet. even hirose isn't a sure thing. if he's a top four defender in the next few seasons it's kind of unusual but not incredibly so. zach whitecloud, neal pionk and sean walker were all similar signings. if you include euro and junior free agents then marcus bjork and artem zub were also undrafted. simon benoit and nick blankenburg are on the cusp of being reliable top 4 guys that were undrafted too

 

[MS]

sasson and mcward aren't anything yet. even hirose isn't a sure thing. if he's a top four defender in the next few seasons it's kind of unusual but not incredibly so. zach whitecloud, neal pionk and sean walker were all similar signings. if you include euro and junior free agents then marcus bjork and artem zub were also undrafted. simon benoit and nick blankenburg are on the cusp of being reliable top 4 guys that were undrafted too

Whitecloud and Walker are 3rd pairing guys.

There's the odd hit but relative to the 20 or 30 NCAA UFAs that get NHL contracts every spring the hit rate is not great.

 

[tradervik]

if you include euro and junior free agents then marcus bjork and artem zub were also undrafted. simon benoit and nick blankenburg are on the cusp of being reliable top 4 guys that were undrafted too

Those guys were all signed in the last 12 months?

These NCAA UFA signings typically have very low hit rates so it's debatable whether being 'above average' at closing on multiple players is actually any sort of major positive.

Sure but you won’t get a hit if you can’t sign any.

 

[credulous]

Whitecloud and Walker are 3rd pairing guys.

There's the odd hit but relative to the 20 or 30 NCAA UFAs that get NHL contracts every spring the hit rate is not great.

walker and whitecloud are both on incredibly deep bluelines. they can both easily play up the lineup and would if they were elsewhere

my point wasn't that lots of college free agents are successful it was that if hirose is a success it's not an unprecedented success

Those guys were all signed in the last 12 months?

i'm not sure what your point was? blankenburg was signed within 12 months of hirose. obviously none of the others were

 

[MS]

walker and whitecloud are both on incredibly deep bluelines. they can both easily play up the lineup and would if they were elsewhere

my point wasn't that lots of college free agents are successful it was that if hirose is a success it's not an unprecedented success

I never said it would be an 'unprecedented success', I said that hit rates on this type of player were low (especially when you're looking at 24 y/o guys) and he'd be an outlier to succeed. And I don't think that's at all incorrect.

 

[credulous]

I never said it would be an 'unprecedented success', I said that hit rates on this type of player were low (especially when you're looking at 24 y/o guys) and he'd be an outlier to succeed. And I don't think that's at all incorrect.

i honestly don't know what we're arguing

i agree with you that the hit rate on unsigned free agents isn't great. i made a big effort post about it last month in the run up to the signing season. i also don't think hitting on hirose is a great accomplishment for this front office. there's 2-3 players every year that are hits. the canucks themselves have benefitted from a few (kuzmenko, stetcher, tanev, burrows)

hirose is a good signing. sasson and mcward might turn out to be good signings too. it doesn't tell us much about this front office's competency though

 

[tradervik]

my point wasn't that lots of college free agents are successful it was that if hirose is a success it's not an unprecedented success

We were discussing if signing good college/etc free agents was a “low bar” for management. Sure it isn’t unprecedented but you seemed to imply it was no big deal and cited a bunch of guys who were signed years ago.

 

[MS]

i honestly don't know what we're arguing

i agree with you that the hit rate on unsigned free agents isn't great. i made a big effort post about it last month in the run up to the signing season. i also don't think hitting on hirose is a great accomplishment for this front office. there's 2-3 players every year that are hits. the canucks themselves have benefitted from a few (kuzmenko, stetcher, tanev, burrows)

hirose is a good signing. sasson and mcward might turn out to be good signings too. it doesn't tell us much about this front office's competency though

I agree with most of this, but I think any management group should get significant credit for finding quality NHL players for free off the scrap heap.

If there's 2 or 3 players/year league-wide who hit as older UFA signings that means that each team only finds one every 10 or 15 years. If Hirose is a hit, that's 3 in 2 years for this group. And Kuzmenko is one of the biggest hits for any team in the cap era.

 

[RandV]

sasson and mcward aren't anything yet. even hirose isn't a sure thing. if he's a top four defender in the next few seasons it's kind of unusual but not incredibly so. zach whitecloud, neal pionk and sean walker were all similar signings. if you include euro and junior free agents then marcus bjork and artem zub were also undrafted. simon benoit and nick blankenburg are on the cusp of being reliable top 4 guys that were undrafted too

For a Canucks perspective Troy Stecher is probably a good example. When he first stepped onto the ice for the Canucks he also looked pretty slick with good skating and puck movement, but then settled in as a reliable bottom pairing guy.

 

[credulous]

We were discussing if signing good college/etc free agents was a “low bar” for management. Sure it isn’t unprecedented but you seemed to imply it was no big deal and cited a bunch of guys who were signed years ago.

specifically i don't think being great at signing unsigned free agents is really a skill that helps teams win much. for the most part i think it's very luck based. if it was a repeatable skill then some nhl teams would be filled with unsigned free agents while others had none/very few. the distribution around the league is pretty much random though

the other thing that i think makes it mean not-very-much is that there's no real functional difference between signing an akito hirose out of college and signing a player off an nhl or ahl roster in free agency. undrafted free agents expand the pool you can sign from but there are bargains picked up in free agency every single offseason. if you're a good talent evaluator it doesn't really matter where the talent comes from. on the ice pedigree doesn't matter

being able to source good players on cheap contracts is more or less the minimal competency required for nhl gms. it's good the canucks can do it but it's not like other teams around the league struggle to do it

i think what really differentiates the good management teams from the mediocre and bad management teams isn't what they do at the bottom of the roster but what they do at the top of the roster. good management teams find ways to get elite talent signed to deals that leave them enough flexibility to build out the rest of their roster. mediocre and bad management teams give big contracts to the wrong players and are forced to give up additional value because of it; either losing players they'd rather keep because they can't fit them in under the cap or paying assets to get temporary cap relief

 

[Diversification]

or they could not do that for once.

If you look at UFAs this offseason, it's slim pickings for a suitable partner for Hughes. A trade for such a player is going to be tough given our cap situation and prospect pipeline. So you basically have to draft his partner. That's the appeal of Reinbacher with our 1st.

 

[racerjoe]

If I am not mistaken, I think the hit rate is better than a 2nd round pick, but the ceiling is a lot worse. So it depends on what you would say is high hit rate.

 

[VanJack]

In 2010 the Canucks signed a skinny d-man Chris Tanev as a UFA out of the Rochester Institute of Technology, a program so far down the list of NCAA schools you need a Hubble Telescope to find it.

Now 13 years later, the Canucks sign Akito Hirose out of Minnesota State. Right off the top, the big difference between the two might be that between 2010 and 2013, Tanev spent the bulk of his time with the Manitoba Moose and the Chicago Wolves, before finally making the Canucks for good in the 2013-14 season.

Based on the early returns, I doubt Hirose spends much if any time in the AHL. But acquiring a top-four d-man from college ranks happened once before for the Canucks; could it happen again?

 

[tradervik]

specifically i don't think being great at signing unsigned free agents is really a skill that helps teams win much. for the most part i think it's very luck based. if it was a repeatable skill then some nhl teams would be filled with unsigned free agents while others had none/very few. the distribution around the league is pretty much random though

the other thing that i think makes it mean not-very-much is that there's no real functional difference between signing an akito hirose out of college and signing a player off an nhl or ahl roster in free agency. undrafted free agents expand the pool you can sign from but there are bargains picked up in free agency every single offseason. if you're a good talent evaluator it doesn't really matter where the talent comes from. on the ice pedigree doesn't matter

being able to source good players on cheap contracts is more or less the minimal competency required for nhl gms. it's good the canucks can do it but it's not like other teams around the league struggle to do it

i think what really differentiates the good management teams from the mediocre and bad management teams isn't what they do at the bottom of the roster but what they do at the top of the roster. good management teams find ways to get elite talent signed to deals that leave them enough flexibility to build out the rest of their roster. mediocre and bad management teams give big contracts to the wrong players and are forced to give up additional value because of it; either losing players they'd rather keep because they can't fit them in under the cap or paying assets to get temporary cap relief

That's a pretty good explanation. I don't agree with you 100% but I'm not up to debating this further.

 

[F A N]

Not convinced he will hold up over 82. Big adjustments to be made once teams actually game plan for you and you start to get smashed a bunch and get worn down or play banged up.

He has the stick skills and IQ which is huge but he's still a 170lber who looks a little shaky against Calgary and LA (2 teams that actually had something to play for)

Its also a bit odd to hear people just assume he's gonna pack on significant muscle when he hasn't to this date on a NCAA schedule and is 24.

I agree that we shouldn't assume that he's going to pack on significant muscle. He has spent three years playing in the NCAA and his older brother has been exposed to NHL training and nutrition (which I assume he would share). I also think weight is only part of the equation. He probably shouldn't be like Tanev and absorb hits to make a play. But it is possible for him to focus on nutrition and gaining strength and power in his stride etc. while continuing to work on defending well with his stick and body positioning etc.

Hirose is a bit of a unicorn though. Those who transition to defense as late as he did usually aren't "smart" defenders.

The comparison to Stecher is an interesting one. Stecher is a bit of a bulldog and Stecher, while shorter, wasn't a wiry guy. Hirose is built more like Petey except Hirose plays defense. Of course it might be due to approach. Stecher grew up as an undersized defenseman so he knew that he needed to get bigger.

 

[RandV]

In 2010 the Canucks signed a skinny d-man Chris Tanev as a UFA out of the Rochester Institute of Technology, a program so far down the list of NCAA schools you need a Hubble Telescope to find it.

Now 13 years later, the Canucks sign Akito Hirose out of Minnesota State. Right off the top, the big difference between the two might be that between 2010 and 2013, Tanev spent the bulk of his time with the Manitoba Moose and the Chicago Wolves, before finally making the Canucks for good in the 2013-14 season.

Based on the early returns, I doubt Hirose spends much if any time in the AHL. But acquiring a top-four d-man from college ranks happened once before for the Canucks; could it happen again?

Chris Tanev doesn't really count here, He was an oddity because when it mattered for being scouted as a prospect he was like 5'8" or something. After being passed over then he had a very late growth spurt giving him NHL size, and it wasn't long before he was playing pro hockey. I don't know the specifics off the top of my head but when he was 12 or something before the size discrepency kicked in he was playing on an elite Toronto area youth team with a bunch of future NHL stars.

 

[LordBacon]

Are there a lot of teams out there signing players of similar quality? I don't follow the league closely enough to have a solid idea but my impression is that the Canucks getting Sasson, Hirose and McWard is above average and well above "basic competency". Signing Kuzmenko was obviously a home run.

I was referring to them operating better than benning and weisbtod.

 

[Bleach Clean]

He has been amazing for what he represents. May actually work out better than Stecher.

 

[Blue and Green]

In 2010 the Canucks signed a skinny d-man Chris Tanev as a UFA out of the Rochester Institute of Technology, a program so far down the list of NCAA schools you need a Hubble Telescope to find it.

Now 13 years later, the Canucks sign Akito Hirose out of Minnesota State. Right off the top, the big difference between the two might be that between 2010 and 2013, Tanev spent the bulk of his time with the Manitoba Moose and the Chicago Wolves, before finally making the Canucks for good in the 2013-14 season.

Based on the early returns, I doubt Hirose spends much if any time in the AHL. But acquiring a top-four d-man from college ranks happened once before for the Canucks; could it happen again?

Tanev was 20 when he signed with a loaded Canucks team. Hirose is 24 and is playing because we've got no one better.

 

[Shareefruck]

For a Canucks perspective Troy Stecher is probably a good example. When he first stepped onto the ice for the Canucks he also looked pretty slick with good skating and puck movement, but then settled in as a reliable bottom pairing guy.

I recall Stecher pretty consistently looking like a very solid #5 defensemen, personally. There may have been hype surrounding his potential that became more realistic over time, but I don't really agree with the framing that he was out of the ordinarily good initially and then dropped off.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I recall Stecher pretty consistently looking like a very solid #5 defensemen, personally. There may have been hype surrounding his potential that became more realistic over time, but I don't really agree with framing him as being out of the ordinarily great initially and then dropping off.

Its part of the life cycle of a prospect in a Canadian market.

1. Honeymoon. Endless potential!
2. Is this player underutilized by the coach?! Play him up the lineup for gods sake!
3. No longer on an ELC and fans only see the flaws in his game and want him gone.

 

[Josepho]

I mean, under Benning you kind of have to take stagnation of guys like Stecher/Hutton with a grain of salt because it's pretty obvious that we didn't really set up an environment for players like them reach their full potential, and virtually nobody here improved under the Green/Desjardins/Benning clusterf***.

I've seen enough of Hirose to think that a good organization can develop this player into a top 4 guy. Don't know if that's us yet.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

People who are penciling in Hirose as a regular for us next year need to take a breath.

There are plenty of AHLers that look great for a 4-5 games when they are riding the initial adrenaline rush of actually being in the NHL.

Just think of him as organizational depth for now.