Confirmed with Link: Canucks Re-Sign W Nils Hoglander to 3y/3m AAV Contract

[sting101]

Hoglanders goals per/60 ES the last 2yrs even is 8th best league wide. 7th highest goal total of his draft class total without much PP.

Hoglander is not purely an offensive player and poor defensive player either he's a tremendous wall player forechecker and he brings all sorts of energy and compete and agitation/disruption to our opposition that typically has him as a positive play driver.

I see a world where Sprong goes back to being a 4th liner or worse and where Hoglander playing with Pettersson/Debrusk collects a lot of points in a contract year that would have become very expensive. He may have played top6 last year but how much of that was with EP40 Mikhayev Lindholm at or near their best.

So while some see this as unnecessary and risky to jump the gun they don't see it that way at all and are getting ahead of the potential of a market measure by his agent that would sour the relationship and maybe even make it impossible to keep him.

He doesn't have to really improve at all for that to be either. A 10-12% SH pctg more assists and shot opportunities set up by better playing players and he could easily surpass 40-45pts.

Would be tough to negotiate down to 3 million at that stage no?

 

[MS]

Hoglanders goals per/60 ES the last 2yrs even is 8th best league wide. 7th highest goal total of his draft class total without much PP.

Hoglander is not purely an offensive player and poor defensive player either he's a tremendous wall player forechecker and he brings all sorts of energy and compete and agitation/disruption to our opposition that typically has him as a positive play driver.

I see a world where Sprong goes back to being a 4th liner or worse and where Hoglander playing with Pettersson/Debrusk collects a lot of points in a contract year that would have become very expensive. He may have played top6 last year but how much of that was with EP40 Mikhayev Lindholm at or near their best.

So while some see this as unnecessary and risky to jump the gun they don't see it that way at all and are getting ahead of the potential of a market measure by his agent that would sour the relationship and maybe even make it impossible to keep him.

He doesn't have to really improve at all for that to be either. A 10-12% SH pctg more assists and shot opportunities set up by better playing players and he could easily surpass 40-45pts.

Would be tough to negotiate down to 3 million at that stage no?

It's going to be *extremely* difficult to go much past his current numbers without getting significant PP production, which likely isn't going to happen. Even if he played with Pettersson all year ... 24 goals again at ES would be pretty solid, expected numbers.

To me the odds that he either a) regresses to the player we saw from 2021-2023 or last year's playoffs or b) even playing at the same level his numbers regress due to SH% and fewer opportunities are *much* higher than the odds of him having some crazy breakout.

 

[sting101]

At least we didnt go full Anthony Beauvillier here which would be a 5.428m deal starting next year by cap % who had similar numbers at the same age. And Hogs is a beast physically.

It's a reasonable gamble to keep this player through his prime vs end up in a situation where like the player i just mentioned or a Mangiapane thing where he has a career year and then all you end up wanting to do is get rid of him

 

[Ernie]

Right now with everyone healthy he's on the 4th line.

That's pretty disingenuous. When healthy players return, things will get shifted around.

Dakota Joshua is a better player than Nils Hoglander, and it isn't close right now.

And there's no need to make the bet on huge improvement right now.

We've been through this a million times who overpaying non-core depth players is a bad idea and people understand it with UFAs or guys coming from other organizations but then lose their minds with it's a 'system guy' that they're attached to.

Joshua is also a non-core player and you could say the exact same things about paying players who have breakout seasons at 28 or guys who show up to training camp out of shape in a make-or-break type season.

The last thing we saw was a player not good enough to be in our best 12 forwards in the playoffs. It's pretty relevant.

Just as relevant as the 24 goals. It's very easy to imagine any of Heinen, Sherwood, Suter, or Blueger being healthy scratches as well.

I didn't place him behind of Sprong or Sherwood. I placed him behind Heinen, who is going to be nailed to JT Miller's line and a regular PKer.

Assuming that Heinen is "nailed" to JT Miller's line is a pretty tenuous statement given that he's 29 and no NHL coach has seen him as a top six player to date. Worth a shot perhaps but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

And let's not ignore the hole on Pettersson's line that Sprong is currently filling.

Obviously they don't agree, but that's just an appeal to authority at this point.

You've been one of this management group's biggest boosters and supported their strategy even when most people were pretty negative. Now they've swerved a bit again and you don't think they deserve some benefit of the doubt?

If I'm handicapping the odds of what Hoglander does next season and have it at 10% offensive breakout over last year (deal looks great), 45% similar production to last year (deal looks average), 45% regression from last year (deal looks bad) ... this isn't a good bet. And I feel like I'm being generous with those numbers, if anything, given his current usage. If they were lining him up on PP1 heading into the season ... sure, there will be an obvious breakout looming. But that isn't the case.

I think you're underestimating what he could earn in arbitration. If he matches last years production, he gets $4m. if he exceeds it, he gets $5m. At the minimum he's probably looking at $2m.

At this point I'm kind of done talking about this. We'll see how this deal is looking at Christmas

Well that's too bad, this is an interesting deal to talk about.

 

[sting101]

It's going to be *extremely* difficult to go much past his current numbers without getting significant PP production, which likely isn't going to happen. Even if he played with Pettersson all year ... 24 goals again at ES would be pretty solid, expected numbers.

To me the odds that he either a) regresses to the player we saw from 2021-2023 or last year's playoffs or b) even playing at the same level his numbers regress due to SH% and fewer opportunities are *much* higher than the odds of him having some crazy breakout.

I follow your logic here but you have to project down the line and while i completely agree he will regress to roughly half his SH% he might also end up beside one of the best 5v5 forwards typically (instead of 2 guys struggling) with something to prove and he looked good in the bumper on PP2.

I dont have much faith in Sprong. As talented as he is he looks brutal to play with. He would look off MacKinnon or Matthews wide open on a 2 on 1. This buddies due to travel thing is just a feel good storyline. Dahlen Goldy Kuzmenko yes they all were his buddies too. Tunnel vision

When you look at our winger depth it's Boeser gap Garland Debrusk gap Joshua gap then Hoglander Heinen gap. Your not gonna get away with paying him 2 million through his prime. he brings some unique characteristics and potential for more. Look at Heinen and his pay and he's mostly been poor to vanilla come playoff time. I think Hogs has more jamb to get inside he just needed players to hep him not make it harder.

I do follow your logic for the player type and overall cap structure allocation and agree it might be committing to something vs improving the defence and that could backfire if both Heinen and Hoglander struggle going forward. If he goes to 45-50 pts though your screwed and almost have to trade him

 

[Russian_fanatic]

I think people see his hands(which are fantastic), speed, and size and think he's a perimeter oriented player.

Kid honestly plays like Thomas Holmstrom, he has some of the best hands in tight spaces I've seen in Canucks history. I'd wager 75% of his goals where either from deflections, rebounds, second hand opportunities, and just being in the right place.

Rather than using his speed to deke out opponents, he uses his speed to get to his spots, and grab pucks around the net. IMO he's going to be a consistent 20-30 goal scorer.

 

[shottasasa]

Like the deal, I think it’s worth taking a gamble to lock in a talented player that took a step forward last year and could very well keep pushing forward. He has a high end motor, plays in the dirty areas and has the speed to keep up. Took a step forward last year in his systems/defensive play and if he takes another step forward there this could be a great deal.

 

[VanJack]

After two and half seasons, I'm prepared to give Allvin the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the contracts he agrees to.

Even when he makes a mistake, like he did with Kuzmenko, Podkolzin and Mikheyev, he moves swiftly to correct it.

So while $3m a season might be a tad 'rich' for a guy like Hoglander, who's really only had one breakthrough season, it could be a bargain if he keeps scoring at a 20-plus goal clip and holds his own defensively.

 

[vancityluongo]

few thoughts

hoglander's biggest value as a "trade asset" is that "24 goals" no matter how many disclaimers you add, on a short-term and low dollar value contract, is what teams like vegas and tampa froth at. last season, there would've been huge appeal in cashing out on something ridiculous like two 1sts in exchange for hoglander, because that's in theory the kind of haul those teams would pay for the short term potential hoglander could add for a playoff run. that naturally drove the trade rumors, even though by most indications, management and coaching see hoglander as a non-core but important piece.

the landscape has changed where those teams might not be in that position anymore, competitively speaking, and the canucks might be. and so the proven performance of "24 goals" (with all of the disclaimers) is suddenly worth a lot to the canucks, even with sprong, heinen, and sherwood added to the mix. so it makes sense to keep hoglander, because we need every dollar of surplus value we can get.

i agree with MS that the above alone doesn't justify the extension, because elite teams don't get attached to these players by extending them past their useful window - they procure them using draft picks/other assets for a reason. and yes he's 23, but hoglander could've had a shit camp and not even made the team on merit if joshua was out and bains/pdg just that much better. heading into last season, hog and pod were considered pretty similarly here, and we saw empirically how the downside outcome was valued, both by the canucks and league wide.

the most interesting question here imo - is this is a move to set up walking from one of garland or boeser, or maybe even both? anyone who is uncomfortable with hog at $3m based on his last two years rather than just this past season should probably be very, very wary of boeser at $9m+ based off of his last two, or garland at $6.5m+ based off of his last two. and if that's where those two contracts are heading, this makes a lot more sense.

my feeling for the last year and a half has been that we should be adding another elite winger, or two if boeser falls off again. management seems to strongly disagree, and is heading towards a "8 middle-6 wingers rotating through the lineup" approach. if that's the objective, and they see hoglander more likely to play PP minutes and see first line ice time with his best friend pettersson, then i can see the logic here.

 

[Peen]

Sat cited Yamamoto’s arb case yesterday on the radio - 3.1 x 2. And, that was 2 years ago in a flat cap environment.

Obviously the bet against Hoglander from MS is that he thinks Hoglander is Yamamoto.

Still think making a call now from a timing perspective was the right move. His arb case would likely have been pretty good. It’s whether or not trading him would have been better.

 

[calnuck]

Honestly kinda surprised at the overall apprehension this thread is showing. 24 es goals, was a constant thorn in other teams sides (look at past gdts from other teams boards) and just a non stop energy guy. This is a player you love to have on your team when you’re seeing it on the other side.

 

[strattonius]

Honestly kinda surprised at the overall apprehension this thread is showing. 24 es goals, was a constant thorn in other teams sides (look at past gdts from other teams boards) and just a non stop energy guy. This is a player you love to have on your team when you’re seeing it on the other side.

And he's 23.

This isn't the best version of this player unless people think he had a career year at 22.

It's just incredibly short sighted and annoying hearing people talk about s% regression and lack of PK utility for such a young player drafted within the organization.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Great move, Nils has looked phenomenal in the preseason, a potential 30 goal 70 point season would have put his salary in the 6M range.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Sprong

Sprong is an incomplete defensively liable 27 year old journeyman with a 20 goal season, Hoglander is 23 years old coming off 24 goals all on even strength while playing the 1st half of the season on the 4th line, by the time Hoglander is 27 and in his prime your looking at a 35 goal 80 point winger, his potential is super high, there’s a reason why the Canes wouldn’t move passed Hoglander in the Necas discussions, Hoglander is a very good young player. Great signing by the Canucks.

 

[timw33]

Great move, Nils has looked phenomenal in the preseason, a potential 30 goal 70 point season would have put his salary in the 6M range.

There is not a chance he hits this without 1) getting 75% PP1 deployment 2) learning how to increase his shot volume by 50%+ 3) has a miracle increase in assist rates that bucks his entire career (junior, AHL, NHL)

 

[arttk]

There is not a chance he hits this without 1) getting 75% PP1 deployment 2) learning how to increase his shot volume by 50%+ 3) has a miracle increase in assist rates that bucks his entire career (junior, AHL, NHL)

Yeah nobody gets 70pts+ without being on PP1. There is like a super slim chance of that happening if he is the main stay on the PP2 and they do an even split in terms of time between PP1 and PP2 and somehow PP2 clicks at like 30%.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Nils spent the summer training hard with the Sedins and was the fittest Canuck in fitness testing.

Allvin “The way he carried himself, it’s important for all our young players to see the commitment to his fitness level and the way he plays and practices every day. He’s still young and we believe there’s still more to come in his game. I am really encouraged about Hoglander's summer and training camp.”

Tocchett: “Higher expectations,” Tocchet said bluntly when asked how he views his young winger. “I thought it was tremendous how he grew. This year, I think it’s another level of higher expectations. We expect him to become an elite player.”

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Hoglanders goals per/60 ES the last 2yrs even is 8th best in the entire NHL.

Incredible.

Hoglander is not purely an offensive player, he's a tremendous wall player forechecker and he brings all sorts of energy and compete and agitation/disruption to our opposition that typically has him as a positive play driver.

Absolutely.

 

[Regress2TheMeme]

Nils spent the summer training hard with the Sedins and was the fittest Canuck in fitness testing.

Allvin “The way he carried himself, it’s important for all our young players to see the commitment to his fitness level and the way he plays and practices every day. He’s still young and we believe there’s still more to come in his game. I am really encouraged about Hoglander's summer and training camp.”

Tocchett: “Higher expectations,” Tocchet said bluntly when asked how he views his young winger. “I thought it was tremendous how he grew. This year, I think it’s another level of higher expectations. We expect him to become an elite player.”

It's fascinating how the management team is betting on themselves to develop Hoglander into a player that provides extra value on a 3m cap hit.

Tocchet obviously values team fitness and they see Hoglander being a leader in that regard. It's like they think he's going to give other players a +2 on their strength and endurance rating (EA NHL reference).

If Hoglander lives up to this contract it's going to do a lot for the culture of team. Hoglander taking a demotion to the AHL, working on his game, and then coming back up and getting a nice contract is a great example for other players. Internal promotion is an important precedent. Teams like Boston seem to always have guys coming up from the system and contributing as solid role players on that team and it's been the fuel that keeps the engine going. I'd love to establish that here.

I would not have given Hoglander this deal right now, but I also trust this management group and I'm excited for what it will mean if this bet pays off. Benning would have paid someone, thinking that by paying them they are what you want them to be. I don't think this mangement group would fall victim to that sort of thinking. They're hard realists and not prone to deluding themselves.

 

[Jerry the great]

It's surprising to me how many people seem to think there is a lot of downside risk to this contract. I don't think the new deal is a steal or anything, but the risk reward appear pretty symmetrical IMO.

I have no issue with the team betting on upside here. They (Ruthervinhet) have challenged the player twice and both times we've seen him level up. I suspect fitness was a key area to address in the summer and he came back the fittest player in camp.

I guess i just don't buy the idea that last year was a false breakout driven exclusively by luck (an unsustainable shooting %). Skating, shooting, physical play, battle level/puck custody were all verifiably stronger.

High end physical tools and work ethic are not things you can coach into a player.....they either have them or they don't. structure, defensive systems and off puck responsibilities you absolutely can as long as the player is dedicated and wants to get better. Hoglander has done nothing to suggest he isn't willing to put that work in and plenty to suggest he is. Good bet IMO.

 

[F A N]

It's fascinating how the management team is betting on themselves to develop Hoglander into a player that provides extra value on a 3m cap hit.

Tocchet obviously values team fitness and they see Hoglander being a leader in that regard. It's like they think he's going to give other players a +2 on their strength and endurance rating (EA NHL reference).

If Hoglander lives up to this contract it's going to do a lot for the culture of team. Hoglander taking a demotion to the AHL, working on his game, and then coming back up and getting a nice contract is a great example for other players. Internal promotion is an important precedent. Teams like Boston seem to always have guys coming up from the system and contributing as solid role players on that team and it's been the fuel that keeps the engine going. I'd love to establish that here.

What you described is what drawn the Canucks to Hoglander in the first place. The work ethic, work rate, and coachability. I know some like/dislike comparing him to Garland but Garland has excelled under Tocchet.

 

[RandV]

Sure if all you think about are the knocks on a player his contract seems bad.

If you also consider his 24 goals at even strength. (More than Pettersson, Malkin, Stamkos, etc.) it seems a lot better

I like Hoglander overall and will trust management/coaching assessment, but regardless of player/contract I think this is an angle (focusing on a disproportional goal total and/or even strength goals) that gets vastly overrated in the league. More typically Hoglander as of last season probably should have been a 30 point player, but the puck luck happens to go his way and now he's being compared as a goal scorer to Pettersson/Malkin/Stamkos/etc? This is a massive technicality flag it's something that practically never scales. It's not like if last season you gave Hoglander 18-20 minutes a game on a top line and PP1 time he's just going to scale up and score 40-50 goals. Chances are he probably scores less.

If I'm just stat page watching and see a guy with the line 80-24-12-36, 12 minutes a game and 20% SH, I'm going to assume he's utilizing individual skill to take advantage of playing against other teams 4th lines and bottom dpairs, and if he were to be say promoted to a top line and play against tougher competition would be completely shut down. Which is what happened in the playoffs.

(Edit: not hard to find his season goals on youtube, a couple nice one's and a lot of opportunistic tip ins and rebounds. The latter group is what tends to be unreliable to reproduce from season to season)

To be a valuable contributor going forward I would assume that he settles into more of a 20-20 middle six type player.

 

[F A N]

There is not a chance he hits this without 1) getting 75% PP1 deployment 2) learning how to increase his shot volume by 50%+ 3) has a miracle increase in assist rates that bucks his entire career (junior, AHL, NHL)

I don’t disagree here. I think a lot of us are too concerned about justifying Hog’s extension by his point totals. It’s like some value ES offensive production, things like possession stats, and at the same time downplay a player’s ES production if they don’t play on PP1 or PK.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

One Last time for the record

Even if he regress and end up being a bottom 6 grinder for the rest of his career.

3m is still a fair cap hit when the cap exceeds 100m

 

[Regress2TheMeme]

What you described is what drawn the Canucks to Hoglander in the first place. The work ethic, work rate, and coachability. I know some like/dislike comparing him to Garland but Garland has excelled under Tocchet.

They're both short players with a good motor. Their offensive skills are opposites though. Garland has good vision but struggles to beat goaltenders. Hoglander has better finish but he can be a liability when he's making plays with the puck. Once Hoglander can take the rough edges off his game and start making his linemates better he could be a heart and soul kind of player like Garland.