Confirmed with Link: Canucks Re-Sign W Nils Hoglander to 3y/3m AAV Contract

[arttk]

This sub’s odd dislike (maybe dislike is too strong) for Hog is so bizarre, and wanting to trade him for this vague top 4 D unnecessary. I don’t think a trade for one hinges on Hog tbh.

I think there are narratives set by certain big voices in this place that shape opinions and people just believe it without looking into it.

Hog didn’t really “fade down the stretch”. He had 20pts in 47 games (35pt pace) pre all star game, and 16 in 33 (40pt pace). His best months were in Feb and March. His hit pace also went up in the 2nd half, from .98 to 1.64 in the 2nd half.

Writing him off based on playoffs seems a bit premature.

Hoglander is not a poor defensive player that’s basically Sprong.
View attachment 913031

His defensive metrics are perfectly fine, and took a big upswing last year. He’s been a positive cf% his entire career outside of one season.

Hoglander consistently goes to heavy traffic areas to score his goals. He’s 4th on the team in shots from high danger areas, and just 1 shot off Pete for 3rd and 12 off Miller for 2nd.

Brock was 1st with 89, in the 97th percentile in the league. All these players get much more ice and PP time than Hog.

Half of Hog’s shots came from high danger areas (59/120), tops on team in %. 19 of Hog’s 24 goals came from high danger zones, 2nd on the team. Brock was 1st, with 22.

He’ll be making 3M starting next year, which will be basically nothing, average 3rd liner money. There is basically no risk, efficient contract that he’ll likely outplay with improvement and/or ice time. Yet you have some posters wanting to trade him and have his contract benefit some other team.

Give your heads a shake, f***ing hell.

It’s not dislike, it’s more like how the hell can we improve the team?
Hog at 1M is a great trade chip and you take top4 over a middle 6 winger any day.
now that he’s signed, I think the convo is going to switch over to Garland in the offseason as the guy who will probably on the block. Basically Garland’s cap is allocated to both Hog and Boeser’s raise.

 

[sting101]

The risk with Hoglander is less that his strong impacts fall off - he’s been consistently strong on that front - and more that despite those impacts he’s ended up in the doghouse with a few coaches now, including the current one.

While you’d assume they have a sense of Tocchet’s feelings on this player, given the track record there’s real risk he ends up in the same place even if he continues to impact the game the way he has, and if that happens that becomes a tough contract to move. Particularly so given the depth this team has on the wings.

Well said.

Yes we have a major cap squeeze coming so it's necessary that he meets or exceeds his cap hit AND has a defined top9 role. If Tocchet is still using him as it ended last year that's a problem

 

[strattonius]

Love it.

This is a player that keeps improving and is showing a dedication that you can't teach.

Even if you predict a regression in his shot% and thus goal totals, it would be a fool's bet not to think Hoglander will start to round out his game and become a good 2way force. With our coaching staff you'll start to see a young player smooth out the details and round his game out.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

As soon as I saw this I knew most of the people on here were not gonna like it. Obviously Tocchet values the player and I think that gives me more confidence than anything.

 

[Flik]

Hmmmmmmm, love the player, but I'm skeptical that last season is the new floor for him.

The coaching staff must feel like he's ready for a larger role and more TOI. Here's hoping this works out, I love Hoggy and what he brings...but his ghost act in the playoffs has me a tad concerned.

 

[WTG]

Well said.

Yes we have a major cap squeeze coming so it's necessary that he meets or exceeds his cap hit AND has a defined top9 role. If Tocchet is still using him as it ended last year that's a problem

Tochett most likely greenlit this signing.

 

[David71]

The more I think about it, it’s getting clearer that management is forecasting out the plan into pretty fine detail into 2025-2026. The two big decisions going into that season are Garland and Demko, and there’s a real world where both of them are not on this team at the end of that period.

Boeser is another one before then, but this one is a more telegraphed re-signing coming IMO

could see ALL three not being canucks next year. boeser gone lekkermaki take his spot on an elc contract. garland traded for d help. demko since hes injured and value is low. i have no idea.

 

[ohnoeszz]

I would have much preferred we re-sign Boeser before another 40 goal year leading into FA.

We should get fine value on this deal and there is upside but we need Hoglander to make a big step in the way he sees the game to make him a good top6 option. He'd be great on our top line with a but more passing sense.

I also think he might get some real PP time as a netfront trigger man this year.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Tocchet must have finally given the approval.

 

[sting101]

Love it.

This is a player that keeps improving and is showing a dedication that you can't teach.

Even if you predict a regression in his shot% and thus goal totals, it would be a fool's bet not to think Hoglander will start to round out his game and become a good 2way force. With our coaching staff you'll start to see a young player smooth out the details and round his game out.

Agree with this. He's been recognized around the league as a young break out player and much of those accolades are without knowing what a gym rat and how physically gifted he is.

While he is limited by his vision and stature there is much runway for as you say rounding out his game and a bigger role. They obviously see it within the organization. Have they made a few mistakes sure but staying healthy the pro scouting has been excellent. I like the bet love the player.

Edit: yes 2way force is a stretch but agree with the main point which is maturity work ethics and finding a defined role should help bear out his ceiling as a player which points North

 

[Shareefruck]

Love it.

This is a player that keeps improving and is showing a dedication that you can't teach.

Even if you predict a regression in his shot% and thus goal totals, it would be a fool's bet not to think Hoglander will start to round out his game and become a good 2way force. With our coaching staff you'll start to see a young player smooth out the details and round his game out.

Feel like it would equally be a fool's bet to be confident that he will. He's busted his ass in the defensive zone and has had perfect coachability/professionalism since his first game, but has been kind of consistently weak-to-terrible at it despite that. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's going to take something out of the ordinary for him to suddenly become a "two way force", IMO. (possibly a hot take, but Boeser becoming an excellent defensive player was always a lot more predictable, IMO)

I'd actually sooner bet on him developing more areas of his game offensively (like becoming a legit top 6 guy, developing more of a shot, or showing more of his stickhandling wizardry) than moving in the other direction, personally.

In general, I find it pretty odd how people see how hard Hoglander works and just automatically assume he'll be Jannik Hansen, disregarding what he's never seemed to have a natural aptitude for.

 

[strattonius]

Feel like it would equally be a fool's bet to be confident that he will. He's busted his ass in the defensive zone and has had perfect coachability/professionalism since his first game, but has been kind of consistently weak-to-terrible at it despite that. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's going to take something out of the ordinary for him to suddenly become a "two way force", IMO.

I'd sooner bet on him developing more areas of his game offensively (like becoming a legit top 6 guy, developing more of a shot, or showing more of his stickhandling wizardry) than moving in the other direction, personally.

Point is he is going to round out his game. He will never be a defensive stalwart a '2 way force' I used was the wrong phrasing.

I've never agreed to using Hoglander as a trade chip and I think the people upset with this signing are typically the same group of people.

I see Hoglander as a young and improving forward that will continue to round out his game and be a consistent middle 6 forward. There is excellent value if Hoglander's prime is a few seasons of 20g 20a type stat lines. And the upside to scoring more goals is still there.

 

[Shareefruck]

Point is he is going to round out his game. He will never be a defensive stalwart a '2 way force' I used was the wrong phrasing.

I've never agreed to using Hoglander as a trade chip and I think the people upset with this signing are typically the same group of people.

I see Hoglander as a young and improving forward that will continue to round out his game and be a consistent middle 6 forward. There is excellent value if Hoglander's prime is a few seasons of 20g 20a type stat lines. And the upside to scoring more goals is still there.

Yeah, if you're not in that camp, don't mind me, I'm just expressing my pet peeve about how people perceive Hoglander in general. It's really annoying. There are still people who treat him like he's Burrows or Hansen for some reason.

Defensive ability is something that people seem to so easily take for granted. Honestly, between guys like Lekkerimaki, Karlsson, Raty, and Hoglander (maybe even Podkolzin when he was here, also Boeser way back when), Hoglander is by far the least likely to become a strong defensive player, but because the former are slower-paced skill guys and the latter is a hard working machine that people associate with the bottom six, he's always the one perceived that way.

 

[RandV]

Reminder that with the projection of the cap in the next 2 years, 3m will be more like 2m

Also we need contract like this in 2025-26 when the OEL penalty is at its peak

Yes but this logic requires utilizing Hoglander to replace a higher priced player, which on the Canucks is: Pettersson, Miller, Boeser, DeBrusk, Garland, Hughes, Hronek, and Demko. Otherwise you would apply this cap saving logic by replacing Hoglanders the $3M contract that he was going to require with an ELC like Lekkemrimaki. And I think it's kind of nuts for some to be saying 'why do people want to move Hoglander' on one hand and 'we should move Boeser/let him walk' on the other.

Regardless I trust management knows what they're doing, just from a fan perspective this seems odd to me. Though just because they extended him doesn't mean they can't still trade him if it comes to the cap crunch, they've been very adept at late off-season cap maneuvers. Personally taking the armchair GM role I was hoping they could use Hoglander at the deadline to require the needed dman, and hold onto the 1st round pick. That's not likely to happen now.

 

[tantalum]

If he scores 14 goals this year and we sign him next summer his contract would not reflect 24 goals.

Over the past 4 seasons he ranks in the top 150 forwards for Even strength goals (since he came into the league). He’s about 200th in even strength points. His output is that as a solid middle 6 player for several seasons. He continues to improve and work on his game.

To me there is very little risk with this deadl and yes if he were to be on the open market this is the type of deal he would get if he scores at a 15-20 even strength goal pace.

 

[Peen]

Baertschi is a harsh comp if you’re looking at Hoglander’s regular season body of work - specifically what he showed last year.

I had been saying for a while that this management team needed to make a call on Hoglander before the season started. Either they think what we saw in the playoffs is the more accurate representation and they should deal him before he has another good regular season and has an insanely favorable arb case OR they make the bet now that the playoff performance is anomalous / minor roadblock.

Kind of like the Hronek situation where the arb case dictated the contract. IMO right move to make the call now rather than let it play out further. But, I would be leaning on Tocchet pretty hard from now to the TDL as to if he’s going to use Hoglander in a top nine role come playoff time / if there’s reason for optimism. Bc if not, trade him by the TDL.

 

[F A N]

Baertschi's cap hit % was about 4.25% in its first season. Hoglander's would be 3.4% if it started in this season and of course will probably be less, assuming that the cap will increase for next season. Baertschi had a fairly substantial history of concussions before he signed that contract.

Yes, Hoglander's shooting % will regress significantly but we're talking about regression after finishing in the top 33 in the league for ES goals and in the top 100 for total goals despite not getting any in special teams play and only averaging 12 minutes per game, as opposed to regression from ordinary middle-six goal production.

I think MS tends to take unreasonable positions just because he dislikes the player. Baertchi’s contract was right where it was projected to be. His contract also bought one UFA year. Given Baertchi’s deployment and chemistry with Horvat, the deal made sense at the time. Of course it didn’t work out.

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

In terms of comparables, this is in line with similar players. You could try to argue for 2.8 or 2.9.

The only reason not to sign this is if you think his play is going to crater. I think he is skilled enough that we likely see another 20 goals this year barring injury.

 

[LordBacon]

Reminder that with the projection of the cap in the next 2 years, 3m will be more like 2m

Also we need contract like this in 2025-26 when the OEL penalty is at its peak

Thank you Jim for the dead cap, 4.7mil for the next 2 seasons. Jesus Christ

 

[SopelFanThe3rd]

Yes! One of our most consistent players last year. Even if he isn't scoring he's valuable and feisty and fast. Love him.

 

[logan5]

I swear it was RFA on puckpedia and they just ninja edited it to UFA

I looked at Puckpedia as well, and I'm sure it said RFA, because I happy to see his contract not bringing him to UFA

 

[F A N]

It’s not dislike, it’s more like how the hell can we improve the team?
Hog at 1M is a great trade chip and you take top4 over a middle 6 winger any day.
now that he’s signed, I think the convo is going to switch over to Garland in the offseason as the guy who will probably on the block. Basically Garland’s cap is allocated to both Hog and Boeser’s raise.

Does it make a big difference whether he is signed or unsigned? He is still making $1M this year. That is unchanged. What has changed is his salary going forward. If it’s perceived as a good contract then it actually adds to his value. If it is perceived as bad value or risky then it detracts from his value. Which way it goes I don’t know.

 

[strattonius]

Yes but this logic requires utilizing Hoglander to replace a higher priced player, which on the Canucks is: Pettersson, Miller, Boeser, DeBrusk, Garland, Hughes, Hronek, and Demko. Otherwise you would apply this cap saving logic by replacing Hoglanders the $3M contract that he was going to require with an ELC like Lekkemrimaki. And I think it's kind of nuts for some to be saying 'why do people want to move Hoglander' on one hand and 'we should move Boeser/let him walk' on the other.

Regardless I trust management knows what they're doing, just from a fan perspective this seems odd to me. Though just because they extended him doesn't mean they can't still trade him if it comes to the cap crunch, they've been very adept at late off-season cap maneuvers. Personally taking the armchair GM role I was hoping they could use Hoglander at the deadline to require the needed dman, and hold onto the 1st round pick. That's not likely to happen now.

This aforementioned group is roughly 50M in CAP. We are expecting the CAP to continue to climb over the next few years to roughly 85+M.

There isn't much concern to a 3M hit for a young player capable of scoring 20+ goals. I think people get fixated on segregating your star players earning heaps to ELC players and min level contracts. The reality is that as the CAP climbs over the next few years these depth players will become more and more valuable.

 

[Snatcher Demko]

Tocchet must have really liked what he's seen. Bit of a gamble here but from what we've seen so far he's looked ready to take another step here, and there's also some cost certainty even if he's included in a deal.

 

[MS]

I see you and @MS have said Baertschi like. I dont see it.

Hoglander is not a super high pick who got massaged because of his draft position. He is strong and explosive/quick with a heavy accurate shot vs soft playmaker who lacked explosiveness but had tremendous vision and playmaking skills. No management team has already bailed on Hoglander after assessing him

Hoglander is a beast on the walls and in a forecheck and powers play up ice. Baertschi was silky but rarely won a board battle and his softness contributed to his demise as after concussions and not being strong enough to be effective for his role he didn't want to pay a price and basically walked away from the game

If your looking at production sure some similarities at this stage but you said in "other areas of the ice" ??

I was referring to level of player, age, level of proven-ness.