Confirmed with Link: Canucks Re-Sign W Nils Hoglander to 3y/3m AAV Contract

[Kryten]

He must really be impressing during practise and training. I love me some Swedish Hog but share the skepticism. The guys in charge are rewarding him and betting on him though

 

[arttk]

If he scores 14 goals this year and we sign him next summer his contract would not reflect 24 goals.

Guessing he is the Garland replacement. If he can put up 40-50ish points with 3rd line deployment then that’s fine. Don’t see them being able to keep Garland with this extension.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Let’s f***ing gooo

I’m so sick of all the Hoglander trade proposal

 

[beachcomber]

Good deal. No idea why the floor hockey crowd here keeps wanting to trade him.

 

[LordBacon]

Got pretty mixed feelings about this one,
It’s nice to see hogs get rewarded ; I don’t think he showed enough to warrant this extension.

But like I’ve said before, Alvin has my trust so imma just stfu.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Reminder that with the projection of the cap in the next 2 years, 3m will be more like 2m

Also we need contract like this in 2025-26 when the OEL penalty is at its peak

 

[Bourdon]

This sub’s odd dislike (maybe dislike is too strong) for Hog is so bizarre, and wanting to trade him for this vague top 4 D unnecessary. I don’t think a trade for one hinges on Hog tbh.

I think there are narratives set by certain big voices in this place that shape opinions and people just believe it without looking into it.

Hog didn’t really “fade down the stretch”. He had 20pts in 47 games (35pt pace) pre all star game, and 16 in 33 (40pt pace). His best months were in Feb and March. His hit pace also went up in the 2nd half, from .98 to 1.64 in the 2nd half.

Writing him off based on playoffs seems a bit premature.

Hoglander is not a poor defensive player that’s basically Sprong.

His defensive metrics are perfectly fine, and took a big upswing last year. He’s been a positive cf% his entire career outside of one season.

Hoglander consistently goes to heavy traffic areas to score his goals. He’s 4th on the team in shots from high danger areas, and just 1 shot off Pete for 3rd and 12 off Miller for 2nd.

Brock was 1st with 89, in the 97th percentile in the league. All these players get much more ice and PP time than Hog.

Half of Hog’s shots came from high danger areas (59/120), tops on team in %. 19 of Hog’s 24 goals came from high danger zones, 2nd on the team. Brock was 1st, with 22.

He’ll be making 3M starting next year, which will be basically nothing, average 3rd liner money. There is basically no risk, efficient contract that he’ll likely outplay with improvement and/or ice time. Yet you have some posters wanting to trade him and have his contract benefit some other team.

Give your heads a shake, f***ing hell.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The management team seems to like the offseason work and preseason sowing that Hoglander had. He seems coachable and with his high workrate he doesn't need to top-6 role to bring value to the team. The only real risk if he starts to breakdown due to his size and style of play or if he keeps proving that he can't be effective in high pressure playoff games, but those kinds of risks are ones a team has to take when the cupboards aren't loaded with high end talent.

I give the signing a cautious thumbs up.

 

[1440]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843074199319138423

 

[sting101]

This sub’s odd dislike (maybe dislike is too strong) for Hog is so bizarre, and wanting to trade him for this vague top 4 D unnecessary. I don’t think a trade for one hinges on Hog tbh.

I think there are narratives set by certain big voices in this place that shape opinions and people just believe it without looking into it.

Hog didn’t really “fade down the stretch”. He had 20pts in 47 games (35pt pace) pre all star game, and 16 in 33 (40pt pace). His best months were in Feb and March. His hit pace also went up in the 2nd half, from .98 to 1.64 in the 2nd half.

Writing him off based on playoffs seems a bit premature.

Hoglander is not a poor defensive player that’s basically Sprong.
View attachment 913031

His defensive metrics are perfectly fine, and took a big upswing last year. He’s been a positive cf% his entire career outside of one season.

Hoglander consistently goes to heavy traffic areas to score his goals. He’s 4th on the team in shots from high danger areas, and just 1 shot off Pete for 3rd and 12 off Miller for 2nd.

Brock was 1st with 89, in the 97th percentile in the league. All these players get much more ice and PP time than Hog.

Half of Hog’s shots came from high danger areas (59/120), tops on team in %. 19 of Hog’s 24 goals came from high danger zones, 2nd on the team. Brock was 1st, with 22.

He’ll be making 3M starting next year, which will be basically nothing, average 3rd liner money. There is basically no risk, efficient contract that he’ll likely outplay with improvement and/or ice time. Yet you have some posters wanting to trade him and have his contract benefit some other team.

Give your heads a shake, f***ing hell.

Good post. I do believe there is a little bit of risk from our overall cap perspective but this is a young stocky quick pit bull of a player who drives play and is unreal down low.

What the hell do people think he deserves that are being so negative? 24 ES goals and a borderline top10 player from his draft that just keep improving. Guy is in insane condition and obviously they see it and are being smart to get ahead of his break out.

Literally my only reservation is that he can't find an effective consistent role in our top3 lines. Wouldn't surprise me to see him bump Sprong or Heinen by November

 

[RobertKron]

Good post. I do believe there is a little bit of risk from our overall cap perspective but this is a young stocky quick pit bull of a player who drives play and is unreal down low.

What the hell do people think he deserves that are being so negative? 24 ES goals and a borderline top10 player from his draft that just keep improving. Guy is in insane condition and obviously they see it and are being smart to get ahead of his break out.

Literally my only reservation is that he can't find an effective consistent role in our top3 lines. Wouldn't surprise me to see him bump Sprong or Heinen by November

Yeah, I think this deal is fine, but I don't know where Hoglander necessarily fits on this deal moving forward unless someone goes away. But this is a player that is probably not hard to - assuming the worst case - juice his stats for a while if you need to get out of the contract. Useful young player with a ~25g season is going to be appealing if you need to move on from him.

 

[Siludin]

2020 Sprong?

How is that a comparable? He was an AHLer. That would have been a more apt Vasili Podkolzin comparison.
Edit: or maybe even a comparison to Hoglander two years ago.
Best comparison for current Podkolzin is probably Tomasino, who is due a new contract at the end of the season.

 

[F A N]

Interesting signing. With all the winger signings I thought management would see where he fits in first. Like others here, I think there is some risk here. With that said, I am a fan of Hoglander’s and I think he’s a good player so there’s not a whole lot of downside. Besides, management seems willing to partially retain salary so even if he ends up being overpaid at $3M, he’s likely a $2M player. Of course if he does put up another 20+ goal season $3M is very reasonable. Then again there are people here who thought Garland was a $2M player.

 

[Blue and Green]

His SH% was unsustainable and he’s behind more depth than he was last year.

He’s a poor defensive player and is basically a smaller Sprong with some agitator in his game.

Healthy scratch in the playoffs and we haven’t seen him in an NHL game since then. I have no idea why we would sign this contract right now. It’s basically the Baertschi special.

Baertschi's cap hit % was about 4.25% in its first season. Hoglander's would be 3.4% if it started in this season and of course will probably be less, assuming that the cap will increase for next season. Baertschi had a fairly substantial history of concussions before he signed that contract.

Yes, Hoglander's shooting % will regress significantly but we're talking about regression after finishing in the top 33 in the league for ES goals and in the top 100 for total goals despite not getting any in special teams play and only averaging 12 minutes per game, as opposed to regression from ordinary middle-six goal production.

 

[Ernie]

Got to be on the fence with this one. Don't think this player has fully proven himself. Did get to the net and score last season but Sven Baertschi-like in other areas of the ice.

One thing contract avoids is an offer sheet that might have been in-coming if he has a big upgrade in play this season. Ounce of prevention .... and so on

Every cent is going to count with the OEL buyout going up and this might be a little high. Still the Canucks need players under contract moving ahead.

Offer sheets really only happen if a player is coming off an ELC. He'd have been eligible for arbitration though and could have earned much more than $3m with another 20+ goal season.

 

[StickShift]

I think the other angle to consider in re-signing Hoglander now is the Boeser negotiation.

It’s a lot easier to walk away from that big ticket if you believe you have another player that could replace that top-six role. It also means that you aren’t up against a tough arbitration case or giving the player leverage if Boeser does walk.

It gives management options, rather than giving themselves gotchas.

 

[sting101]

Got to be on the fence with this one. Don't think this player has fully proven himself. Did get to the net and score last season but Sven Baertschi-like in other areas of the ice.

One thing contract avoids is an offer sheet that might have been in-coming if he has a big upgrade in play this season. Ounce of prevention .... and so on

Every cent is going to count with the OEL buyout going up and this might be a little high. Still the Canucks need players under contract moving ahead.

I see you and @MS have said Baertschi like. I dont see it.

Hoglander is not a super high pick who got massaged because of his draft position. He is strong and explosive/quick with a heavy accurate shot vs soft playmaker who lacked explosiveness but had tremendous vision and playmaking skills. No management team has already bailed on Hoglander after assessing him

Hoglander is a beast on the walls and in a forecheck and powers play up ice. Baertschi was silky but rarely won a board battle and his softness contributed to his demise as after concussions and not being strong enough to be effective for his role he didn't want to pay a price and basically walked away from the game

If your looking at production sure some similarities at this stage but you said in "other areas of the ice" ??

 

[timw33]

Not sure about this one but it seems like it's wrong to bet against this management group. You have to wonder if they have other deals in the making like moving Garland as money out to land a bigger target like a top-4D.

Have the same concerns as others about the sustainability of his SH%, unless he starts becoming a volume shooter it's going to be very difficult to hit the 20 goal mark. There's really not much leverage to be had when you're under 5'10 and have difficulty getting anything done in the playoffs.

I would love to be totally wrong about this, and I hope they consulted Tocchet prior to inking this.

 

[SeawaterOnIce]

Funny how MS and I come up with the same Baertschi impression.

Proof you two are the same person!

 

[Ernie]

I think the other angle to consider in re-signing Hoglander now is the Boeser negotiation.

It’s a lot easier to walk away from that big ticket if you believe you have another player that could replace that top-six role. It also means that you aren’t up against a tough arbitration case or giving the player leverage if Boeser does walk.

It gives management options, rather than giving themselves gotchas.

Not really comparable players. If they let Boeser go they'll need another top forward on the PP, and Hoglander ain't that.

 

[RobertKron]

I think the other angle to consider in re-signing Hoglander now is the Boeser negotiation.

It’s a lot easier to walk away from that big ticket if you believe you have another player that could replace that top-six role. It also means that you aren’t up against a tough arbitration case or giving the player leverage if Boeser does walk.

It gives management options, rather than giving themselves gotchas.

I don't think those guys fit in the same slots. IMO, the hope is likely that Hoglander backing it up combined the things brought by the other wingers they brought in makes moving Garland viable, or makes losing him after his contract is up a minimal loss.

 

[sting101]

I think the other angle to consider in re-signing Hoglander now is the Boeser negotiation.

It’s a lot easier to walk away from that big ticket if you believe you have another player that could replace that top-six role. It also means that you aren’t up against a tough arbitration case or giving the player leverage if Boeser does walk.

It gives management options, rather than giving themselves gotchas.

i agree with the having some certainty angle but Boeser is a front line scoring winger.

Don't see Hoglander having much influence on BB6 and being able to squeeze him in any way.

 

[Tinhorn1]

Funny how MS and I come up with the same Baertschi impression.

Personally I don't see it. Baertschi couldn't get to the net. Whenever he tried, he broke his body to pieces. His contract was also more money at a much lower cap.

 

[pitseleh]

The risk with Hoglander is less that his strong impacts fall off - he’s been consistently strong on that front - and more that despite those impacts he’s ended up in the doghouse with a few coaches now, including the current one.

While you’d assume they have a sense of Tocchet’s feelings on this player, given the track record there’s real risk he ends up in the same place even if he continues to impact the game the way he has, and if that happens that becomes a tough contract to move. Particularly so given the depth this team has on the wings.

 

[WTG]

I hate the comparison to Baertschi. Baertschi had several massive concussions, who knows what type of player he would have developed into if it weren't for those head injuries.

Don't compare players to other players who fell off because they had injuries. It's stupid.