Proposal: Canucks-Penguins

[Regal]

I find it funny that you're accusing Penguisn fans of asking for too much when you're giving a comically biased interpretation of the Canucks assets being given up. Hoglander is a "young winger" with 5 points in 31 games this year, is currently on a 21 game pointless streak and hasn't even started a 3x3 extension yet. Desharnais is a "replacement defensemen" yet he's a #7 D signed for $2 million with term that Vancouver is actively looking to get rid of. Yet somehow those two are positive pieces for the Penguins to be getting for Pettersson?

Last deadline, Tanev was traded to Dallas for Grushnikov and a 2nd. D-man Elias Pettersson and a 2nd is about as apples to apples as you can get for that, and it doesn't involve the Penguins taking back a cap dump D or a struggling young forward with a questionable contract. If the Penguins aren't getting at minimum EP and a 2nd for MP, why would they bother trading him to the Canucks? Especially when Vancouver has to dump a shitty contract to make MP's deal work.

Tanev was probably a bit more coveted around the league, but EP and a 2nd seems about right

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

3 million a season isn't too far out of line for a bottom six player. Hoglander has been better than that until this year, too, so this is the lowest his value has ever been, and he's 24,

However, his value, even taking the new cap hit and current performance into account, isn't needing a 2nd round pick, and a bottom pairing D, and a promising prospect to get Marcus Pettersson. Fowler and Trouba just went for far, far less, and Jricek went for a little more then what's being asked for.

Yes, but we'd expect that 30+ year old defensemen on multi year deals having poor seasons would cost far, far less, wouldn't we?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Tanev was probably a bit more coveted around the league, but EP and a 2nd seems about right

The defensemen market was also way better last year than it was this year. MP and Provorov are really the only rental top-4 D available, it's an unusually bad market.

Either way, most Penguins fans are expecting a 2nd and B prospect worth of value. That's why I think EP and a 2nd is about right, and I think something like Mynio and a 2nd could even be acceptable as well. But there really isn't much of a supply of top-4 D rentals this year so I think that could inflate MP's value, especially above what's being offered in the OP.

 

[kanucks25]

I think the reason this trade hasn't happened already is because the Canucks don't want an LD.

Wise or not they are content with Hughes - Soucy - Forbort - Brannstrom down the left side.

What they're likely targeting now is an RD upgrade over Desharnais, which is tough because as usual there are like a handful of other good teams looking for an RD upgrade.

 

[Cogburn]

Yes, but we'd expect that 30+ year old defensemen on multi year deals having poor seasons would cost far, far less, wouldn't we?

28 isn't far from 30 though, and it would be a bold argument to say that a rental is somehow more valuable to us then having a longer contract.

 

[Regal]

I think the reason this trade hasn't happened already is because the Canucks don't want an LD.

Wise or not they are content with Hughes - Soucy - Forbort - Brannstrom down the left side.

What they're likely targeting now is an RD upgrade over Desharnais, which is tough because as usual there are like a handful of other good teams looking for an RD upgrade.

With the way Soucy is playing, I think they’ll take what works. It’s not ideal with the Hronek injury but if a LD can stabilize Myers, whether it’s him or Soucy with a new acquisition, it really doesn’t affect the second pair much

 

[Cloudedthought]

I do not see a deal bigger than a second and a prospect level.
Desharnais doesnt need to be part of the deal, he can be dumped for a late pick to someone else thats rebuilding and needs a tall tree.

Hoglander is being squeezed by the coach. He has some holes defensively but think strangling his ice time is not helping him in any way. Strike it up to Tocchet tends to sour on guys and it drives their value down due to how he treats them.
This is a guy that has grind and offensive flashes mixed with a little pest.

I dont think the deal works for either side. Rather work a first for a higher skilled player on the backend. To be honest I dont want anymore Swedes.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

28 isn't far from 30 though, and it would be a bold argument to say that a rental is somehow more valuable to us then having a longer contract.

The diminished value of a 30+ year old having a bad year on a pricey contract beyond this season is because not only are they playing poorly now, but age suggests there's a greater chance of the player being on a downward slope, AND the acquiring team will be on the hook for years.

Pettersson is not only more attractive because of his age, and his better performance this season, but his expiring deal means there's no commitment beyond this year if he doesn't work out for whatever reason. It gives teams wiggle room.

A longer term deal is only more attractive if the player's likely to outperform his contract. Fowler and Trouba aren't. Pettersson is.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I’m surprised that this isn’t enough in your opinion. What are you looking for in a Pettersson deal if a 2nd + young player isn’t enough?

A young player pacing for more than 11 points on the season, presumably. Hoglander hasn’t produced a thing this year, he doesn’t have the value he would have if dealt in the offseason.

 

[Shocker]

Desharnais has no value and if Sullivan doesn't already play Pulju, why would he play Höglander.

Penguins rather trade Pettersson elsewhere alone.

 

[Three On Zero]

Remove VD and this is a really solid proposal

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Take Pettersson out and it might make sense.

 

[Cogburn]

The diminished value of a 30+ year old having a bad year on a pricey contract beyond this season is because not only are they playing poorly now, but age suggests there's a greater chance of the player being on a downward slope, AND the acquiring team will be on the hook for years.

Pettersson is not only more attractive because of his age, and his better performance this season, but his expiring deal means there's no commitment beyond this year if he doesn't work out for whatever reason. It gives teams wiggle room.

A longer term deal is only more attractive if the player's likely to outperform his contract. Fowler and Trouba aren't. Pettersson is.

Being more attractive by merit of being younger has to do with cost control/team control and potential though, and being very close to an arbitrary age that has an expiry date doesn't help his value either. Having no commitment being a selling point would be a plus if we were unsure we wanted him, or unsure if he will continue to play at the level he's playing at.

As an example, our rental players from last year, Zadorov and Lindholm, were made a priority to resign. We paid a great deal for Lindholm, but he had the chops for it, well above Pettersson. Zadorov cost us a 3rd and a 4th, and played the same role Pettersson would be expected to.

Trading three younger players and a draft pick to get a bottom pairing, or low minute second pairing, D makes no sense. If Pittsburgh doesn't value Hoglander, inspite of all the smoke from media, that's fine, but let's not pretend Pettersson is going to fetch a return like Jiricek did.

 

[3074326]

"Why won't you accept the deal that I want you to accept?"

 

[Empoleon8771]

"Pettersson is only a bottom pair D so you should accept this shitty offer for him"

All I know is that if Vancouver is only offering the junk that Canucks HF fans will pay for him for him, the Penguins are going to trade him elsewhere. Just like last year where the Canucks wouldn't offer more than junk for Guentzel and he ended up getting traded elsewhere. This isn't even Penguins fans asking for a ridiculous return for Pettersson like we did for Guentzel, this is just not being willing to take crap for him.

With how barren the current market is for top-4 D, Penguins fans are more likely a bit low on the estimate of a 2nd and B prospect for Pettersson. If you're not even willing to do that and instead want to gaslight Penguins fans by trying to convince us that Desharnais and Hoglander are good assets, why even have this thread? We're not even asking for a lot here.

 

[Gurglesons]

Being more attractive by merit of being younger has to do with cost control/team control and potential though, and being very close to an arbitrary age that has an expiry date doesn't help his value either. Having no commitment being a selling point would be a plus if we were unsure we wanted him, or unsure if he will continue to play at the level he's playing at.

As an example, our rental players from last year, Zadorov and Lindholm, were made a priority to resign. We paid a great deal for Lindholm, but he had the chops for it, well above Pettersson. Zadorov cost us a 3rd and a 4th, and played the same role Pettersson would be expected to.

Trading three younger players and a draft pick to get a bottom pairing, or low minute second pairing, D makes no sense. If Pittsburgh doesn't value Hoglander, inspite of all the smoke from media, that's fine, but let's not pretend Pettersson is going to fetch a return like Jiricek did.

Nobody is pretending Pettersson is going to fetch a Jiricek return.

That being said, why would we traded him for 5+ mil in cap next year?

Even if you want to use the Guentzel trade as an example Dubas attempted to leverage that into a similar player (top nine LW) and multiple prospects, not a 3x3 contract and an additional RHD when Petts is a left.

If the deal was like Hogs, Soucy, 2nd and some prospect for Petts and DOC or Lizotte I’d get it, but nothing about this deal makes sense for PIT.

 

[ohnoeszz]

EP is a non-starter for me. I think he replaces Soucy in a year or two and the Canucks have a size fetish that he satisfies. Seems to be a likely 3rd pair guy with top 4 upside.

Mynio seems to have risen his stock drastically, now being invited to the World Juniors. Both EP and Mynio were 3rd rounders and it's hard to judge how much higher the Canucks view them at this point.

Kudryatsev has done very well as an AHL rookie LD. He's a slick intelligent player with acceptable physical attributes. He could be of value to the Penguins as well if they like what they see at the AHL level.

I'd be content trading a 1st for Pettersson in the end but I get the impression the Penguins want a prospect closer to contributing.

 

[Wattsburgh]

MP is definitely worth a playoff teams first round pick.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Being more attractive by merit of being younger has to do with cost control/team control and potential though, and being very close to an arbitrary age that has an expiry date doesn't help his value either. Having no commitment being a selling point would be a plus if we were unsure we wanted him, or unsure if he will continue to play at the level he's playing at.

As an example, our rental players from last year, Zadorov and Lindholm, were made a priority to resign. We paid a great deal for Lindholm, but he had the chops for it, well above Pettersson. Zadorov cost us a 3rd and a 4th, and played the same role Pettersson would be expected to.

Trading three younger players and a draft pick to get a bottom pairing, or low minute second pairing, D makes no sense. If Pittsburgh doesn't value Hoglander, inspite of all the smoke from media, that's fine, but let's not pretend Pettersson is going to fetch a return like Jiricek did.

You brought up Fowler and Trouba as comparables. I simply pointed out why Pettersson is a much more valuable asset. Of course Pettersson would be even more valuable if he had an extra year or two considering his age, salary, and level of play, but that wasn't the question.

Not sure why you would bring up Zadorov as a comparable either, or characterize Pettersson as a bottom pairing/low minute 2nd pairing d. Zadorov averaged 18:24 a night with CGY before getting traded to VAN. Pettersson averaged 22:40 a night last year and is averaging 21:47 a night this year providing a stable partner for whichever of Letang or Karlsson needs it more, well above any VAN defenseman other than Hronek or Hughes. Doesn't fit the description you're providing at all.

Also, on what planet is the return comparable to Jiricek? This is just a series of strawmen to kick over.

Don't need to make a sales pitch for Petts, because his numbers speak for themseves and there will be suitors. Just wanted to correct some baseless takes.

 

[kanucks25]

Just hoping for Hoglander to get traded ASAP so these Ryder Hoglander + Halak Desharnais + 2nd proposals can finally end.

 

[Cancuks]

Judging by what the Pens got for Guentzel, this is an overpay. Dubas likes his AHL fodder.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Man I want nothing to do with a TDL where Marcus Pettersson is worth a 1st round pick.

I won't open up the Hoglander can of worms but he's not a cap dump

Even our own media is saying he has zero value right now. The only reason we're not paying to move what could be an awful contract with the way he's playing at the moment is because he's still young and teams in Pittsburgh position can afford to gamble on him.

His "value" at this point is Pittsburgh (or any other team) saying, "Sure, toss him in."

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Judging by what the Pens got for Guentzel, this is an overpay. Dubas likes his AHL fodder.

Judging by what Dubas gets in general, we'd be lucky to get a 2027 3rd rounder. Hopefully he bucks the trend and gets a reasonable return.

Even our own media is saying he has zero value right now. The only reason we're not paying to move what could be an awful contract with the way he's playing at the moment is because he's still young and teams in Pittsburgh position can afford to gamble on him.

His "value" at this point is Pittsburgh (or any other team) saying, "Sure, toss him in."

Hogs has potential, for sure. But like you say, that contract for the level of play he's shown this year is not something many teams will be lining up to pay for.

When you're getting outproduced by Noel Acciari, a 3 × 3 mil per contract is not a plus.

 

[chethejet]

Pens need picks but a prospect has to be a player who they lack. small LW are not in short supply in Pens system. Dubas takes the pick he wants to make a deal. He is not unloading Petts unless the deal is what he wants. So a 1st is what he wants.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Judging by what the Pens got for Guentzel, this is an overpay. Dubas likes his AHL fodder.

What is this based on? Koivunen (18 points in 23 games) and Ponomarev (10 points in 14 games) are both doing really well in the AHL, Koivunen would be your AHL team's top scorer. Outside of Raty (very equal to Ponomarev IMO), Canucks fans were offering worse prospects in exchange for Guentzel last year.

The only way the Canucks were going to match what the Canes paid last year for Guentzel was doing something like Hoglander, Raty, Truscott and a 2nd for Guentzel. And with how Hoglander's value has plummeted since last year, that deal would have aged worse than the deal the Penguins actually made. The Canucks didn't have the prospect pieces to match up with the Canes unless they included Willander or Lekkerimaki, which they obviously shouldn't have done and didn't want to do.