Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | The Morning After

[Ernie]

I think if you look at some comparable contracts it'll likely be a 5-6 year deal in the $5.5M to $6M range

Here's a few (keep in mind MP will be 29 in May):

Matt Roy 6 year $5.75M per (age 29 when deal starts and a good comparable)
Brett Pesce 6 year $5.5M per (age 30 when deal starts and a good comparable)

My guess (based on the above) is a 6 year deal in the ~$5.5M per year (AFP Analytics projected 5 year $5.85M).

These deals are a year old, so you have to account for the cap increase and forward projections. I also think that the market is tighter for defencemen this season than last. I will be pleasantly surprised if the term is less than 7 years and the cap hit is less than $7m.

 

[Josepho]

I think any contract under $7mil per for Pettersson is a pipe dream.

 

[MS]

Replacing Soucey with DP will save us like 2M. More money for Allvin's UFA shopping spree.

Yeah, exactly.

Assuming MP signs, there is literally zero reason for the team to keep Soucy when you could fill that spot with EP2 at $2.5 million less plus retain Forbort at $1.5 or less as the 7D.

He doesn't fit anymore. And I like Soucy, liked that signing ... but he's become a miscast piece. He's currently the 4th-best LD we have, and maybe the 5th-best the way EP2 is going.

It will also be interesting to see what happens with the rookie defenders. Competing teams virtually never will put two rookie D in their top 6. Creates all kinds of matchup issues, PK issues, etc.

I'd assumed that Willander would walk straight into that 3RD spot which is now *wide* open with the trade of Desharnais and the hapless Juulsen currently playing the role. And that made perfect sense - the other two guys (Myers & Hronek) can PK, put Willander with a reliable partner, and you're sorted. I didn't think any of the other prospect D were really going to be in the mix for next year. But now EP2 is overtly in the mix for next year and might be closer than Willander actually. How does that work? You can't put a two-rookie third pairing on the ice. You don't really want rookies on the ice >50% of the time. Can EP2 PK at the NHL level right away, or does Hughes get forced back into that role?

 

[Quinning]

I think any contract under $7mil per for Pettersson is a pipe dream.

That's why they need to get him signed ASAP, the better he plays the more he means to this team = the more we pay.

He would surely get that on the open market.

 

[arttk]

Also, Friedman joining in on the "MP3 Extension Quick" talks.

so Miller for a 2nd paring anchor D, 3C, maybe 3rd paring D (if it works out) and CAP.
I think its a win if Chytil becomes a 2C.
Smashing success In the super unlikelihood of Mancini becoming a 2nd paring guy but if he hits as a 3rd paring guy that would be a win too.

 

[Quinning]

Yeah, exactly.

Assuming MP signs, there is literally zero reason for the team to keep Soucy when you could fill that spot with EP2 at $2.5 million less plus retain Forbort at $1.5 or less as the 7D.

He doesn't fit anymore. And I like Soucy, liked that signing ... but he's become a miscast piece. He's currently the 4th-best LD we have, and maybe the 5th-best the way EP2 is going.

It will also be interesting to see what happens with the rookie defenders. Competing teams virtually never will put two rookie D in their top 6. Creates all kinds of matchup issues, PK issues, etc.

I'd assumed that Willander would walk straight into that 3RD spot which is now *wide* open with the trade of Desharnais and the hapless Juulsen currently playing the role. And that made perfect sense - the other two guys (Myers & Hronek) can PK, put Willander with a reliable partner, and you're sorted. I didn't think any of the other prospect D were really going to be in the mix for next year. But now EP2 is overtly in the mix for next year and might be closer than Willander actually. How does that work? You can't put a two-rookie third pairing on the ice. You don't really want rookies on the ice >50% of the time. Can EP2 PK at the NHL level right away, or does Hughes get forced back into that role?

It's time for them to get ruthless with cap cutting for the bottom six and bottom pairing. They have players in Abbotsford who can do these jobs. Stop giving veterans retirement contracts.

 

[Agent007]

These deals are a year old, so you have to account for the cap increase and forward projections. I also think that the market is tighter for defencemen this season than last. I will be pleasantly surprised if the term is less than 7 years and the cap hit is less than $7m.

think folks had a pretty good idea cap was going up last summer (maybe not this much). I'd be slightly surprised if it's $7M AAV. Perhaps 6 years $6M (also keep in mind some of the guys I mentioned like Peace and Roy are right handed).

 

[MS]

I think any contract under $7mil per for Pettersson is a pipe dream.

He's never had more than 30 points in a season and this is the type of player (solid top-4 D without fancy hockey card numbers) who are continually the most underpaid guys relative to their impact.

The Pesce/Roy/Lindell deals are all very close comparables signed in the last year and all were in the $5.5 range. With the cap increase, I'd expect MP to get around $6 million.

Brady Skjei got $7 million last year but his offensive production was on a different level - 47 points in Carolina while getting very limited PP1 time. Same with Hronek - 49 points and came in at $7.2.

 

[Vector]

@Vector , is this salary cap maneuvering?

Yes.

 

[Tv9924]

Yeah, exactly.

Assuming MP signs, there is literally zero reason for the team to keep Soucy when you could fill that spot with EP2 at $2.5 million less plus retain Forbort at $1.5 or less as the 7D.

He doesn't fit anymore. And I like Soucy, liked that signing ... but he's become a miscast piece. He's currently the 4th-best LD we have, and maybe the 5th-best the way EP2 is going.

It will also be interesting to see what happens with the rookie defenders. Competing teams virtually never will put two rookie D in their top 6. Creates all kinds of matchup issues, PK issues, etc.

I'd assumed that Willander would walk straight into that 3RD spot which is now *wide* open with the trade of Desharnais and the hapless Juulsen currently playing the role. And that made perfect sense - the other two guys (Myers & Hronek) can PK, put Willander with a reliable partner, and you're sorted. I didn't think any of the other prospect D were really going to be in the mix for next year. But now EP2 is overtly in the mix for next year and might be closer than Willander actually. How does that work? You can't put a two-rookie third pairing on the ice. You don't really want rookies on the ice >50% of the time. Can EP2 PK at the NHL level right away, or does Hughes get forced back into that role?

I wonder if Willander will be in play for our hunt for a star forward. He's a very valuable asset that teams will court.

 

[Vector]

Yeah, exactly.

Assuming MP signs, there is literally zero reason for the team to keep Soucy when you could fill that spot with EP2 at $2.5 million less plus retain Forbort at $1.5 or less as the 7D.

He doesn't fit anymore. And I like Soucy, liked that signing ... but he's become a miscast piece. He's currently the 4th-best LD we have, and maybe the 5th-best the way EP2 is going.

It will also be interesting to see what happens with the rookie defenders. Competing teams virtually never will put two rookie D in their top 6. Creates all kinds of matchup issues, PK issues, etc.

I'd assumed that Willander would walk straight into that 3RD spot which is now *wide* open with the trade of Desharnais and the hapless Juulsen currently playing the role. And that made perfect sense - the other two guys (Myers & Hronek) can PK, put Willander with a reliable partner, and you're sorted. I didn't think any of the other prospect D were really going to be in the mix for next year. But now EP2 is overtly in the mix for next year and might be closer than Willander actually. How does that work? You can't put a two-rookie third pairing on the ice. You don't really want rookies on the ice >50% of the time. Can EP2 PK at the NHL level right away, or does Hughes get forced back into that role?

They've also acquired and are very high on Mancini. Would not be surprised if they easy both Pettersson and Mancini in while Willander actually ends up in the AHL. Despite being in the same draft, Mancini is two years older than Pettersson.

 

[Flik]

I think we need to push D Petey as hard as we can this season and see if he can handle it. I'd like to see him stick with the big club for the rest of the year, if that means we have to turf Soucy, that's fine, we can recoup something for him.

Soucy has been dreadful this year, and D Petey emerging and looking so damn solid is a gift from the hockey gods that we should double down on and see if its real or not.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Just a monster around the boards. Physically a bit inconsistent but he does have the tendency to turn up the intensity level. Pretty much a modern day Brian Boyle type and he’s from New West/Surrey.

He's from New West and Surrey? Jesus.

Teams should be scared shitless to play against him.

 

[arttk]

I wonder if Willander will be in play for our hunt for a star forward. He's a very valuable asset that teams will court.

If Mack becomes available sure

 

[Nuckles]

He's never had more than 30 points in a season and this is the type of player (solid top-4 D without fancy hockey card numbers) who are continually the most underpaid guys relative to their impact.

The Pesce/Roy/Lindell deals are all very close comparables signed in the last year and all were in the $5.5 range. With the cap increase, I'd expect MP to get around $6 million.

Brady Skjei got $7 million last year but his offensive production was on a different level - 47 points in Carolina while getting very limited PP1 time. Same with Hronek - 49 points and came in at $7.2.

I'm thinking teams won't shy away from the ridiculous contracts because they know the cap will continue skyrocketing for not just next season, but the following two seasons and possibly beyond.

I said this before MP played a game with the Canucks, his agent probably knows every team will be throwing around money on July 1st and they have the Canucks over a barrel considering what they gave up to get MP.

I'm guessing their asking price is 7.5M x 7 years.

I think it's to be expected moving forward. Previous contract expectations need to be thrown out the window with all the talks about the massive cap increases in these coming years.

 

[credulous]

They've also acquired and are very high on Mancini. Would not be surprised if they easy both Pettersson and Mancini in while Willander actually ends up in the AHL. Despite being in the same draft, Mancini is two years older than Pettersson.

i dunno they are that high on mancini. they targetted fortescue per friedman and settled for mancini. fortescue is okay but he's a pretty vanilla prospect

 

[MS]

I'm thinking teams won't shy away from the ridiculous contracts because they know the cap will continue skyrocketing for not just next season, but the following two seasons and possibly beyond.

I said this before MP played a game with the Canucks, his agent probably knows every team will be throwing around money on July 1st and they have the Canucks over a barrel considering what they gave up to get MP.

I'm thinking their asking price is 7.5M x 7 years.

I think it's to be expected moving forward. Previous contract expectations need to be thrown out the window with all the talks about the massive cap increases in these coming years.

There will obviously be increases but I don't see where a guy will go from being a $5.5 million player to a $7.5 million player in one offseason. That's nearly a 40% increase.

I'll be stunned if he gets more than $7 million.

 

[VanillaCoke]

They've also acquired and are very high on Mancini. Would not be surprised if they easy both Pettersson and Mancini in while Willander actually ends up in the AHL. Despite being in the same draft, Mancini is two years older than Pettersson.

Dont sleep on Mancini, ppl are going to like him very soon.
Neither him nor DOC were throw ins.

 

[ahmon]

should be around 5.5 to 6M, Matt Roy contract for Marcus Pettersson is more than fair.

 

[arttk]

I'm guessing their asking price is 7.5M x 7 years.

man you guys are aggressive, that's Skjei money. I am not sure he is the comparable.

 

[Vector]

i dunno they are that high on mancini. they targetted fortescue per friedman and settled for mancini. fortescue is okay but he's a pretty vanilla prospect

Dont sleep on Mancini, ppl are going to like him very soon.
Neither him nor DOC were throw ins.

Inside everyone there are two wolves...

 

[LemonSauceD]

My guess is $6.25M x 8.

 

[Vector]

Recap of Friedman's interview with Donnie & Dhali. Not much new here.

Canucks

• The defence is definitely better; everyone knew the defence was a concern
• Lot of optimism that they’ll extend Marcus Pettersson and potential O’Connor
• Thought the Canucks looked faster
• New players were really excited to play for the Canucks

Moving Forward

• Thinks management wants to see how the team plays now
• Dialing back discussions on Pettersson; at the very least they know what the market for him is
• Going to try and re-sign M-Petey and O’Connor

Boeser

• Focused so much on Miller that “it took all the oxygen out of the front office”
• Can now look at what they want to do with Boeser
• Don’t have to rush with Boeser because he’s not part of the 4 Nations tournament

Their Own First Round Pick

• Rumours on Saturday and Sunday that the Canucks were looking to move their own 1st but Canucks have indicated that they aren’t keen on trading it since they aren’t a playoff team right now
• Have time to figure out how good they are

Noise in the Market

• Thinks it will simmer down now
• Miller didn’t specifically ask for a trade but everyone knew that was the best option
• Number one thing they had to do is done and now have time to sort everything else out
• Want to let the team breathe
• Lots of moving parts: Boeser, Lankinen, Marcus Pettersson, & O’Connor
• Want to see how the Canucks react to these trades

Miller Benching

• Heard different things after the game against Nashville
• Can’t confirm what happened that day and won’t guess
• Was decided between the team, player, and his representative that it was time to move on

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Inside everyone there are two wolves...

Wolf 1:

Wolf 2:

 

[timw33]

That market isn't going to overhaul completely for guys who don't put up conventional counting stats. I do not believe we're going to see Bobby Holik style deals, the money will go to the star power players and producers.

Lindell + Roy are the best recent comparables (25ish point 20 minute munchers), and even if you add a 10% inflator for a bit uptick in capspace you are around 6MM. Add additional term and that AAV should come down a bit.