Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Summer Doldrums

[sandwichbird2023]

Feels like Hoglander is getting under-appreciated here. For his ice time and deployment last year, he is arguably the best depth scoring forward in the league in the first half of the 2023-24 season. His elevation to Petterson's line in my opinion actually hurts him as EP was obviously injured and wasn't anywhere near his normally effectiveness, dragging down Hog with him.

I think most people had recency bias on him based on his poor playoff. I don't doubt there will be some regression on his s%, but I also don't think he is done developing at age 23. He scored 5 more goals than JDB last year with essentially zero useful PP time. We need depth scoring like this to be competitive (how many years we made fun of the Oilers for wasting McDavid's prime by not having any depth scoring?), and even if he gets a raise next summer I think he will be valuable (unless he gets an insanely favorable arbitration award).

I have no complaints if we trade Hog for a young 2nd pairing D, but short of that I would have a tough time seeing him gone for anything else "reasonable".

 

[JT Milker]

If one more person posts a lineup without Joshua-Blueger-Garland, I’ll mail dog shit in an envelope to Jim Benning.

 

[Nucker101]

If one more person posts a lineup without Joshua-Blueger-Garland, I’ll mail dog shit in an envelope to Jim Benning.

I think Suter works there as well, but yeah I don't love the idea of splitting up Joshua and Garland, their chemistry is legit.

 

[StreetHawk]

Canucks don't have many options of young players who can be 2nd line guys for them internally. There is that gap from 2019 draft to like 2022 because of the Benning moves that ate most of the draft capital in 2020 and 2021. Miller, the team got value. OEL, didn't. And Klim doesn't look to be a player.

If they can get some production from Hog/Pod, they desperately need that. Up front, they need Lekky but after him is who? Raty at best is middle 6 type production.

 

[Nick Lang]

There’s no reason to add anyone else to the roster unless it’s a significant upgrade.

Exactly. No money and we have lots of players.

I like Sammy Blais for the 4th line. Rest it hot garbage

I really like Blais too as a rough and tumble customer. Hits hard and plays fast. Daniel Sprong is intriguing. What is up with Patches .... is he done or still plying his trade? Would have loved him on the team back in his prime.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Other than some PTOs, I think mgmt is done.

Not much room for movement given the only real move is for an upgrade and that would cost more than they currently have.

It's now more about getting the forward lines the way that works the best and the d pairings that maximize the potential and minimize the weaknesses.

Everything, from top to bottom, will be heavily reliant on the system(s).

Still think there is a sizeable need for another Top 4 dman but appears mgmt is willing to wait (and I don't blame them).

 

[TruGr1t]

Feels like Hoglander is getting under-appreciated here. For his ice time and deployment last year, he is arguably the best depth scoring forward in the league in the first half of the 2023-24 season. His elevation to Petterson's line in my opinion actually hurts him as EP was obviously injured and wasn't anywhere near his normally effectiveness, dragging down Hog with him.

I think most people had recency bias on him based on his poor playoff. I don't doubt there will be some regression on his s%, but I also don't think he is done developing at age 23. He scored 5 more goals than JDB last year with essentially zero useful PP time. We need depth scoring like this to be competitive (how many years we made fun of the Oilers for wasting McDavid's prime by not having any depth scoring?), and even if he gets a raise next summer I think he will be valuable (unless he gets an insanely favorable arbitration award).

I have no complaints if we trade Hog for a young 2nd pairing D, but short of that I would have a tough time seeing him gone for anything else "reasonable".

Hoglander needs to work on using his teammates, his Assists/60 was like Lafferty-level bad last season. He did end up bumping his Corsi above 50% later in the season, but all-in-all he doesn't bring enough to the table outside 15-20 goals at this point, which is similar output to other guys who do things like PK, play physical, are defensive checkers etc.

There is a reason a guy like Daniel Sprong is still unsigned this far into free agency.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Hoglander had more goals than his linemates combined in both the 1st and 2nd half of the season.

Yet many gush over PDG and Suter, who score nothing alongside a pass 1st 100p center...

Yea, trade him... it's not like this teams offense is pathetic enough already

 

[Wisp]

Gentle reminder Hoglander shot at an unsustainable 20%

Manage your expectations accordingly

He will have to level up as a player to tread water.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Hog is twenty three..

 

[God]

Hmm… I liked Dermott but Forbort has a longer history of playing tough defensive and PK minutes. A healthy Forbort who hasn’t suffered a major decline is better IMO. I would sign Dermott and send Friedman down.

Yeah, Forbort definitely has a better track record than Dermott, but Dermott's skating and transition would give more versatility on the backend.

Friedman I really like for his ability to draw penalties, and from what I recall from his limited appearances, he's fine at getting the puck out. Wish he was a lefty. He's a good 7 and I wish the coaches would put more trust into him over the multiple chances Juulsen gets.

 

[Bourdon]

Hoglander put up 36pts playing barely 12 mins a game. He did so playing against neutral competition and more defensive zone starts than o-zone. He threw 100 hits last year.

About half of his SOGs are tracked to be from high danger locations (59/120), according to NHL Edge. 19 of his 24 goals are high danger goals.

He drove possession last year and has a positive corsi for in all but 1 yr of his career.

Some of you bozos need to touch grass. When a guy makes 1.1m, it’s so not worth the time to complain about him. I hope this incessant need to be right all the time doesn’t transfer to your real lives.

 

[strattonius]

Hoglander is developing in to one of the best pest forecheckers in hockey.

He's only 23 - it's weird to me that our fanbase is giving up on him as soon as he progressed with proper structure and coaching. Now everyone is going to reply to me with shot% regression and the supposedly massive raise he's going to be due next off-season. Crap arguments.

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

People here have a warped idea what Tocchet values in players, including yourself.

Yeah. Tocchet values skilled players. You just have to put in the effort in on the defensive side.

Hog is twenty three..

Makes sense that everyone wants to trade him. Nobody likes you when you’re 23

 

[Bojack Horvatman]

Hoglander is developing in to one of the best pest forecheckers in hockey.

He's only 23 - it's weird to me that our fanbase is giving up on him as soon as he progressed with proper structure and coaching. Now everyone is going to reply to me with shot% regression and the supposedly massive raise he's going to be due next off-season. Crap arguments.

Yeah. Even with a regress in shooting %. An excellent forechecking, cheap bottom 6er that can score has value. I wouldn’t think twice about trading him if we need to add him to get a top 6 F/top 4 D, but we should absolutely not be trading him just because.

I don’t even think his extension would be expensive. I can see him falling into the Pius Suter pay structure where other teams don’t value him enough unless he is cheap.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Hoglander needs to work on using his teammates, his Assists/60 was like Lafferty-level bad last season. He did end up bumping his Corsi above 50% later in the season, but all-in-all he doesn't bring enough to the table outside 15-20 goals at this point, which is similar output to other guys who do things like PK, play physical, are defensive checkers etc.

There is a reason a guy like Daniel Sprong is still unsigned this far into free agency.

Hoglander's assists total might not be very high, but he spent half the season playing with Suter/Lafferty (with 14 and 13 goals respectively), and half the season with a clearly injured Petterson and Mikheyev and his 1 goal in like 50 games to end the season. He had, like I said, zero useful PP time on a mish-mash unit that get like 30 seconds or less a PP. I'm not sure exactly how many assists are people expecting in that kind of deployment?

In contrast, Suter spent half a season with Hoglander, and the other half with JTM/Boeser on the top line, and he only managed 15 assists himself. Joshua, who is considered a key middle 6 player for us tethered to a play driver like Garland, had 14 assists in 63 games (or an 18 assists pace). Hog may not be a natural passer, but I think his lack of assists is overblown.

I think Hog brings much more than a guy like Sprong (as per your example). Hog is a relentless forechecker, a pest, and (similar to Garland) he brings a ton of energy. He is hard to knock off the puck and, for a smaller guy, he hits a lot. Again, at 23 years old, he isn't done developing. Also, if he does score 20-ish goals and good assist total and play of special teams, he is a legit 1st liner. He clearly isn't there and his pay reflects that, and if he continues to be the same type of player, his pay will continue to reflect that as well. So I'm not sure why Hog has been a bit of an issue with some posters recently?

 

[kanucks25]

Hoglander had more goals than his linemates combined in both the 1st and 2nd half of the season.

Yet many gush over PDG and Suter, who score nothing alongside a pass 1st 100p center...

Yea, trade him... it's not like this teams offense is pathetic enough already

Who gushes over these guys lol? Everyone knows PDG is a 13th/14th forward and Suter is a solid all-around player but very limited and doesn't belong in a championship team's top-6.

Feels like Hoglander is getting under-appreciated here. For his ice time and deployment last year, he is arguably the best depth scoring forward in the league in the first half of the 2023-24 season. His elevation to Petterson's line in my opinion actually hurts him as EP was obviously injured and wasn't anywhere near his normally effectiveness, dragging down Hog with him.

I think most people had recency bias on him based on his poor playoff. I don't doubt there will be some regression on his s%, but I also don't think he is done developing at age 23. He scored 5 more goals than JDB last year with essentially zero useful PP time. We need depth scoring like this to be competitive (how many years we made fun of the Oilers for wasting McDavid's prime by not having any depth scoring?), and even if he gets a raise next summer I think he will be valuable (unless he gets an insanely favorable arbitration award).

I have no complaints if we trade Hog for a young 2nd pairing D, but short of that I would have a tough time seeing him gone for anything else "reasonable".

Hoglander's playoff was definitely disappointing. He had a very nice regular season especially when you consider expectations and salary, but he was a complete non-factor in the playoffs. Even if he wasn't producing a player like him should have been a complete nuisance on the fore-check but that wasn't the case either.

Still, this season was a big step in his development and it's not uncommon for young players to falter in their first post-season. He deserves a real shot at the top-6 in camp and he should get one considering we have a few holes there.

 

[TruGr1t]

Hoglander's assists total might not be very high, but he spent half the season playing with Suter/Lafferty (with 14 and 13 goals respectively), and half the season with a clearly injured Petterson and Mikheyev and his 1 goal in like 50 games to end the season. He had, like I said, zero useful PP time on a mish-mash unit that get like 30 seconds or less a PP. I'm not sure exactly how many assists are people expecting in that kind of deployment?

In contrast, Suter spent half a season with Hoglander, and the other half with JTM/Boeser on the top line, and he only managed 15 assists himself. Joshua, who is considered a key middle 6 player for us tethered to a play driver like Garland, had 14 assists in 63 games (or an 18 assists pace). Hog may not be a natural passer, but I think his lack of assists is overblown.

I think Hog brings much more than a guy like Sprong (as per your example). Hog is a relentless forechecker, a pest, and (similar to Garland) he brings a ton of energy. He is hard to knock off the puck and, for a smaller guy, he hits a lot. Again, at 23 years old, he isn't done developing. Also, if he does score 20-ish goals and good assist total and play of special teams, he is a legit 1st liner. He clearly isn't there and his pay reflects that, and if he continues to be the same type of player, his pay will continue to reflect that as well. So I'm not sure why Hog has been a bit of an issue with some posters recently?

Suter is a checker who was in that position due to winger scarcity, he'll rightfully be back to centre in the bottom six this year, where he was supposed to be all along. He's also light-years ahead of Hoglander defensively and kills penalties.

Pettersson, despite what anyone thinks about his season, definitely elevated Hoglander's offensive game, just like about anybody he plays with. Hoglander certainly has some finish and developed a better game last season, but he's still rather one-dimensional in the grand scheme of things, and Tocchet clearly doesn't trust him with many minutes, and no special teams time. I don't think you need much outside the eye test to see Hoglander has issues with puck distribution and working with his linemates, but the numbers also indicate that.

Maybe he develops further, I don't know, but he's not even in Sprong's league in terms of A/60 currently. There are plenty of guys in the league that score 20 goals and perennially float around to different teams because that's about all they do. Hoglander has a bit more pest in his game, certainly, but he needs to round out his defensive game if he wants a larger paycheque and a career as a middle-six winger.

 

[MS]

Gentle reminder Hoglander shot at an unsustainable 20%

Manage your expectations accordingly

He will have to level up as a player to tread water.

I’ve mentioned before how some players (Joshua and Kuzmenko specifically) are low-volume, high-percentage shooters who might not match their highest high years but will probably consistently shoot well above average through their careers because of the kind of shots they’re taking – almost all in high-danger areas very close to the net.

Hoglander is not that. He’s a traditional volume shooter who has consistently shot in the 10-12% range through his career at various levels (including the AHL in 22-23) until he had a massive outlier shooting year last year. It would be extremely surprising if he didn’t regress back toward his career averages next year which holding shots equal would put him in the 12-15 goal range.

 

[racerjoe]

First I do like Hogs... but he is expendable for the right piece coming back.

Look at who you were comparing him to, like Suter. A useful player, but cheap and plentyful to find.

at his current contract there is a lot of value there, and that is why he could also have value in a trade to bring in something the team needs more.

In terms of his development... he needs to take some giant strides or he won't be worth the contract he will demand. Other posters have really hit the nail on the head with that, in his play style and what else he needs to bring to the table.

It should be a big year for him period.

 

[ziploc]

There is a reason a guy like Daniel Sprong is still unsigned this far into free agency.

 

[strattonius]

Yeah. Even with a regress in shooting %. An excellent forechecking, cheap bottom 6er that can score has value. I wouldn’t think twice about trading him if we need to add him to get a top 6 F/top 4 D, but we should absolutely not be trading him just because.

I don’t even think his extension would be expensive. I can see him falling into the Pius Suter pay structure where other teams don’t value him enough unless he is cheap.

If his development stagnates I get the anti-Hoglander idea. It just seems everyone is a year ahead of themselves. Everyone is assuming a big regression because of one stat: s%.

 

[Wisp]

If his development stagnates I get the anti-Hoglander idea. It just seems everyone is a year ahead of themselves. Everyone is assuming a big regression because of one stat: s%.

His shooting percentage regressing is different from his development regressing. He can still maintain similar goalscoring if he levels up as a player and can hold down a regular top 6 roll. But that's still a what-if. He's not going to score on 20% on his shots again. He could also level up as a player and still score less.

Just saying manage your expectations. I'd prefer to use him as a trade chip while his value his high rather than risk his value depreciating in a snakebit stretch. Doesn't mean I dislike him as a prospect or young player - I think he has genuine upside, which means he's a good trade chip.

Just for added prospective, we have this argument every year a player has a hot goal scoring season with an unsustainable shooting percentage. Last guy we went through this with was Kuzmenko. Probably going to go with it with Boeser too, for anyone who thinks he's a true talent 40 goal guy.

 

[Vector]

 

[Wisp]

I will also add people need to get used to non-core players being possible trade chips and that wanting to use them as trade chips doesn't mean we think the player sucks.

Folks are too used to the Benning years when we weren't a playoff team and every young player is precious and the only contracts we wanted to trade were grotesque roster dead weight.