Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | 4 Nations Break Edition

[Bobby9]

Three are two EP camps:

1. Those that think he will recover and want to keep him
2. Those that think he won't and want to trade him

It really doesn't matter if the recovery is physical or mental, it comes down to what one thinks as far as his ability to recover regardless.

I fully believe we all want #1 but the $11.6M/yr question is will that actually happen?

Of course we all want him to be a 100 point C.

And we do have a third camp:

People who think he will recover (knee) but still be unable to lead this team to any post season success based on a number of reasons. Simply put: We just don't believe in him.

 

[arttk]

You're now switching your argument to basically, "Allvin is the best GM in the league and will execute better than every other team".

Alright, that's a take you can have. But it's tough to have a serious discussion when you move the goalposts in every response.

I never said he is the best GM, I just think he is above averages when it comes to pro scouting and being able to close deals.

is your point, well it’s best to assume our GM cannot execute so therefore the better course of action is to rebuild? Or are we going to look at his track record and use that to project what he can do moving forward?

 

[Nucker101]

If he's going to be damaged goods from here on out then you trade him at the draft.

I really think this management group's weakness is handling injuries. Mikheyev thing was stupid and Pearson thing was insane. Who know what happens to Demko if he himself doesn't go see some specialists to finally figure out his injury.

It's clear that with this team the players with serious/chronic injuries are better off getting a 2nd and 3rd opinion from top doctors around the world that aren't associated or specifically recommended by the Canucks.

Petey or I guess his agents should be setting up some appointments early this summer(or ideally should've during this break) with some top knee specialists and see what they think is the best course of action to get him back into form.

 

[Jerry the great]

1. The lesson of Jack Eichel is that you don't want to be the BUF end selling the high-end player. The Canucks are BUF in this scenario.

2. Reinhart has not played center in Florida.

3. Bennett is far from a 1C. Stephenson is not a 1C.

4. Miller is your only legitimate example here.

unless some GM does something really goofy, the window to trade him has closed IMO.

They probably could have done something with Buffalo early in the season or Carolina before they got Rantanen, but i doubt anyone is parting with things we'd covet for a gimpy #2/3C (current level of play) earning franchise C money through 2032.


If we trade him for what amounts to cap space and meh futures, we're fooked.

if his work ethic is shot or the knee is chronic we're fooked

If he's sufficiently embarrassed by what's happened this year and is ready to "embrace the hard" work this summer there's a chance we haven't seen the best out of him as a player. They charted out this course when they traded Miller....might as well stay on it until they see land (or hit an iceberg).

 

[JT Milker]

If he's going to be damaged goods from here on out then you trade him at the draft.

I really think this management group's weakness is handling injuries. Mikheyev thing was stupid and Pearson thing was insane. Who know what happens to Demko if he himself doesn't go see some specialists to finally figure out his injury.

It's clear that with this team the players with serious/chronic injuries are better off getting a 2nd and 3rd opinion from top doctors around the world that aren't associated or specifically recommended by the Canucks.

Petey or I guess his agents should be setting up some appointments early this summer(or ideally should've during this break) with some top knee specialists and see what they think is the best course of action to get him back into form.

It’s genuinely really funny that people think we’re choosing bad doctors. Like management is going out and trying to find the worst surgeons in Metro Vancouver to work with their million dollar investments.

 

[credulous]

it doesn't matter if you believe pettersson will rebound or not. if the canucks want to contend in the next couple of years they have no choice but to bet on pettersson rebounding. without him they're not a contender and maybe not even a playoff team. look at nashville to see what a team with good wings, good defense, good goaltending and no center depth looks like

 

[bossram]

I never said he is the best GM, I just think he is above averages when it comes to pro scouting and being able to close deals.

is your point, well it’s best to assume our GM cannot execute so therefore the better course of action is to rebuild? Or are we going to look at his track record and use that to project what he can do moving forward?

No, my point is we should think reasonably and in terms of what is probabilistically likely, not assume whatever perfect invented scenario we want in our head comes to fruition.

You're moving the goalposts again. Yes, you were implicitly saying Allvin is the best GM. Your (second? third?) new argument was that Allvin will execute better than all other GMs.

I also think Allvin is an above-average GM. Some of the GMs of other contenders are above average GMs. Again, this is not a unique advantage to VAN.

 

[arttk]

No, my point is we should think reasonably and in terms of what is probabilistically likely, not assume whatever perfect invented scenario we want in our head comes to fruition.

You're moving the goalposts again. Yes, you were implicitly saying Allvin is the best GM. Your (second? third?) new argument was that Allvin will execute better than all other GMs.

I also think Allvin is an above-average GM. Some of the GMs of other contenders are above average GMs. Again, this is not a unique advantage to VAN.

ok, and you base your probability on what he has accomplished in the past, not in some vaccum.

I am not implicitly or explicitly saying Allvin is the best GM, those are your words not mine. I've said it's reasonable to assume based on the players he has signed in the past that if he gives a 8M contract to a UFA, that UFA will most likely meet those expectations.
1.) I think it's reasonable to assume he will be able to sign at least 1 of those UFA this coming off season. Does saying that imply he is the best GM in the league? No.
2) I also said that this management group is above average when it comes to correcting their mistakes and is willing to pay to move on. There are pros and cons to this, pro being the fact willing to move off mistakes will help us maximize the effectiveness of the money spent. Con being the cost in assets. Us willing to be this ruthless is an advantage compared to other GMs who tends to be more conservative. Does doing this make Allvin the best GM in the league? No.
3.) I said the advantage will kick in when the cap goes higher up to above 100M since a bunch of teams that I listed will most likely not spend to that and that will neutralize some of the surplus value effects. And for the teams that will spend to the cap, the only ones that I find better is Vegas and maybe Dallas if they are willing to spend to the cap. That doesn't mean Allvin is the best, I just think the better GMs (Tampa, Florida, Canes maybe) don't really operate in that cap range and their tax and surplus value advantage will be somewhat neutralize by the fact we will spend more than them.
4.) this is a new point, thinking about it. I don't really think there should be zero surplus value, Allvin has shown that he is able to harvest surplus value at the lower end of the lineup ( Sherwood, Suter, Lankinen this year) and there should be some confidence in him being able to continue to do that. With rookies coming in as well, there will be surplus value in the lineup, it just won't be at the top of the lineup but overall if every player is living up to their contract at the very least and we have surplus value from those bottom of the lineup guys and rookies, and we spend more money than a whole bunch of teams, we don't necessarily NEED to have surplus value in every single contract in order to compete.

 

[SopelFanThe3rd]

Anyone think Suter will be brought back?

 

[I am toxic]

No, my point is we should think reasonably and in terms of what is probabilistically likely,

Eff me that is ballistically effin awesome

 

[bossram]

Anyone think Suter will be brought back?

My position going into the season was that I would thank him for his service on a bargain deal, and wish him luck in UFA and let some other team pay him.

I've kinda flipped on that though. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to trade him, because I think his market perception still doesn't hold him in that high of a regard (and the club ostensibly wants to make the playoffs). I think they could still probably re-sign him for around $3-3.5M on a a medium term deal, given I don't think teams will be bidding him up much higher.

 

[credulous]

My position going into the season was that I would thank him for his service on a bargain deal, and wish him luck in UFA and let some other team pay him.

I've kinda flipped on that though. I don't think it makes a ton of sense to trade him, because I think his market perception still doesn't hold him in that high of a regard (and the club ostensibly wants to make the playoffs). I think they could still probably re-sign him for around $3-3.5M on a a medium term deal, given I don't think teams will be bidding him up much higher.

i don't love suter as a player but unless they make a deal for a center imminently i don't see any way they don't resign him. without him if chytil or pettersson go down the next guy up is sasson or blueger

 

[Nucker101]

It’s genuinely really funny that people think we’re choosing bad doctors. Like management is going out and trying to find the worst surgeons in Metro Vancouver to work with their million dollar investments.

Almost as funny as a billion dollar franchise messing up the Mikheyev and Pearson injuries and employing chiropractors