Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | 4 Nations Break Edition

[TruGr1t]

I think the convo in management has to be ‘well what do we do with Hughes?’ Starting tmro.

The Vancouver Canucks just lost 2 x #1 C within a year. A franchise simply cannot recover from that.

So, what do we do with Hughes?

You've still got time and a bunch of cap space. Do your job.

 

[Diversification]

I think the convo in management has to be ‘well what do we do with Hughes?’ Starting tmro.

The Vancouver Canucks just lost 2 x #1 C within a year. A franchise simply cannot recover from that.

So, what do we do with Hughes?

You clone him, obviously...

 

[bossram]

I dunno if I agree with that. There’s a number of possibilities. What if D-Petey and Willander both pop and you have a top three blue line in the NHL?

What if you hit a few home runs in FA and win a trade or two? A lot can happen in the summer.

There’s no actual way to know the probabilities or who will become available, or how you use cap space.

A lot of us were saying the name thing about this team when Miller and Pettersson were actually good (ie. rebuild) prior to the last 1.5 seasons. Then Miller switched to C and broke out, and Hughes arrived quickly. It’s hard to say.

It's one thing to make contact on a lot of base hits, like this management has done in recent offseasons (and I think they can continue to do).

It's another to hit four home runs in a row.

I feel like saying, "anything is possible" is a cop-out. This is functionally the same as the Benning-era mantra, "just get in and anything can happen". Sure, if Willander turns into a top-pair defenseman AND D-Petey turns into a top-pair defenseman AND you find a 1st line wing in UFA AND you somehow magic a 1C out of thin air...then sure, you can be contender.

I think that is highly unlikely.

I could easily play the "what if" game. What if all those prospects don't pan out as we hope? What if they can only scrap together a bunch of middle-six centers down the middle? What if Hughes leaves? These seem like a lot likelier outcomes then what you're describing too.

And to your point about us saying the team should take more of a rebuild/long-term approach at the start of Allvin's tenure (I believe we were both in that camp), were we ultimately really that wrong? It took a string of several successful, undervalued pro scouting targets to get the club to a "competitive" level. I don't think we can really say the Canucks were really a serious contender at any point though. And it would take another string of even more successful moves or strokes of fortune to get to the next level.

 

[arttk]

It's one thing to make contact on a lot of base hits, like this management has done in recent offseasons.

It's another to hit four home runs in a row.

I feel like saying, "anything is possible" is a cop-out. This is functionally the same as the Benning-era mantra, "just get in and anything can happen". Sure, if Willander turns into a top-pair defenseman AND D-Petey turns into a top-pair defenseman AND you find a 1st line wing in UFA AND you somehow magic a 1C out of thin air...then sure, you can be contender.

I think that is highly unlikely.

And to your point about us saying the team should take more of a rebuild/long-term approach at the start of Allvin's tenure (I believe we were both in that camp), were we ultimately really that wrong? It took a string of several successful, undervalued pro scouting targets to get the club to a "competitive" level. I don't think we can really say the Canucks were really a serious contender at any point though. And it would take another string of even more successful moves or strokes of fortune to get to the next level.

I don’t think the team need to only hit home runs to be successful, they just need to be able to consistently get players that can play to their contract and get an occasional home run here and there.

We have a Norris/Hart level D and now actually a D unit that is actually fairly good. They have shown the ability to pro scout forwards, so just keep doing that and add guys who can play to their style and if they get duds, just throw them away and swap in better players.
Sounds awfully simple but it seems like they are able to do that somewhat consistently.

 

[bossram]

I don’t think the team need to only hit home runs to be successful, they just need to be able to consistently get players that can play to their contract and get an occasional home run here and there.

We have a Norris/Hart level D and now actually a D unit that is actually fairly good. They have shown the ability to pro scout forwards, so just keep doing that and add guys who can play to their style and if they get duds, just throw them away and swap in better players.
Sounds awfully simple but it seems like they are able to do that somewhat consistently.

This is just wrong. Collecting guys that play to their contract value results in a perfectly mediocre team. Contenders need a critical mass of players providing surplus value over their contracts, including a few star players providing massive surplus value.

If Petey doesn't return to top-15 center form, yes, they absolutely need to hit multiple home runs in pro acquisitions to have even a sliver of a chance of contention. Maybe even more, as the writing on the wall hits that Hughes will leave.

 

[TruGr1t]

It's one thing to make contact on a lot of base hits, like this management has done in recent offseasons (and I think they can continue to do).

It's another to hit four home runs in a row.

I feel like saying, "anything is possible" is a cop-out. This is functionally the same as the Benning-era mantra, "just get in and anything can happen". Sure, if Willander turns into a top-pair defenseman AND D-Petey turns into a top-pair defenseman AND you find a 1st line wing in UFA AND you somehow magic a 1C out of thin air...then sure, you can be contender.

I think that is highly unlikely.

I could easily play the "what if" game. What if all those prospects don't pan out as we hope? What if they can only scrap together a bunch of middle-six centers down the middle? What if Hughes leaves? These seem like a lot likelier outcomes then what you're describing too.

And to your point about us saying the team should take more of a rebuild/long-term approach at the start of Allvin's tenure (I believe we were both in that camp), were we ultimately really that wrong? It took a string of several successful, undervalued pro scouting targets to get the club to a "competitive" level. I don't think we can really say the Canucks were really a serious contender at any point though. And it would take another string of even more successful moves or strokes of fortune to get to the next level.

The "What If" game becomes a lot easier when you already have a generational player in Quinn Hughes, which I think is the main difference from when we were having these discussions previously. If a couple of ELC defensemen hit (and D-Petey looks like he will) you literally could have a top 3-5 blueline relatively shortly. Then you'll have a ton of cap space to reallocate to forward over that period. There have been a few instances of teams retooling like this and making a go at it. I just don't think it's a sure thing either way.

 

[arttk]

This is just wrong. Collecting guys that play to their contract value results in a perfectly mediocre team. Contenders need a critical mass of players providing surplus value over their contracts, including a few star players providing massive surplus value.

If Petey doesn't return to top-15 center form, yes, they absolutely need to hit multiple home runs in pro acquisitions to have even a sliver of a chance of contention. Maybe even more, as the writing on the wall hits that Hughes will leave.

I mean there are a couple of things. Playing guys who play up to their contract would not lead to a mediocre team if those guys are like Ratanen and whoever we can get with the caps space we have. I think you guys assume that the guys we get are like 1-5M players because that’s all the cap space we had in the last few years for UFA. We do have a lot more cap space especially if we trade away Brock and also Soucy.

Also think a lot depends on Demko’s health. If Demko can get back to being healthy and Hughes remains a Hart level guy, there is enough there for us to build a deep team.

We are going to enter an era where a bunch of playoffs won’t be able to spend to the cap and that will neutralize some of the surplus value concept. Like I said before, the panthers are a model franchise, went to back to back SCF and still can’t charge more than 30ish in the upperbowl in a marquee game vs the Oilers. That is consistent with a ton of teams, Tampa, Carolina. We think they will spend to the cap but I will bet that once the cap hits 100+, there is no bloody way they will because their market won’t support it and then the fact we will spend to it because this market is sucker for paying too much money, will make up for the surplus value thing other teams have going for them.

 

[tyhee]

Agreed. Too many think we can just find a superstar replacement. I'd rather gamble on Pete getting his form back rather than a project player that we hope can. Pete ready proved he can be a superstar in this league.

I can't see your statement "Too many think we can just find a superstar replacement" which appears to me to be a misreading of the sentiment of those that disagree with you. The difference between their position and yours is actually fairly simple. While you would "rather gamble on Pete getting his form back" the people who think he should be traded don't want to make that gamble and would rather get some value for him rather than risk being stuck with his big contract if he isn't going to be able, for whatever reason, to bring his play up to past levels.

On any fan forum we're likely to find a small number of dreamers who hope to find a superstar replacement, but mostly those who would trade EP40 just don't think your gamble is worthwhile.

 

[bossram]

The "What If" game becomes a lot easier when you already have a generational player in Quinn Hughes, which I think is the main difference from when we were having these discussions previously. If a couple of ELC defensemen hit (and D-Petey looks like he will) you literally could have a top 3-5 blueline relatively shortly. Then you'll have a ton of cap space to reallocate to forward over that period. There have been a few instances of teams retooling like this and making a go at it. I just don't think it's a sure thing either way.

Again, the "what if" game works the other way with Quinn. What if he leaves?

This "anything can happen" logic from you is a cop-out. It's basically saying nothing but, "I hope it gets better". Which is fine to just be a fan, but a lot less intellectually rigorous than I usually see from you.

I can't see your statement "Too many think we can just find a superstar replacement" which appears to me to be a misreading of the sentiment of those that disagree with you. The difference between their position and yours is actually fairly simple. While you would "rather gamble on Pete getting his form back" the people who think he should be traded don't want to make that gamble and would rather get some value for him rather than risk being stuck with his big contract if he isn't going to be able, for whatever reason, to bring his play up to past levels.

On any fan forum we're likely to find a small number of dreamers who hope to find a superstar replacement, but mostly those who would trade EP40 just don't think your gamble is worthwhile.

The argument from the "gamble on Petey crowd", and mine specifically, is that whatever "value" you get in a Petey trade is not going to make the club a contender. There are not going to be any premium assets in the package and the club will still be looking for a 1C.

The likeliest way they acquire a star 1C is if Petey returns to form. I don't think there is any path to contention in the near term if they trade Petey.

 

[tyhee]

...


The argument from the "gamble on Petey crowd", and mine specifically, is that whatever "value" you get in a Petey trade is not going to make the club a contender. There are not going to be any premium assets in the package and the club will still be looking for a 1C.

The likeliest way they acquire a star 1C is if Petey returns to form. I don't think there is any path to contention in the near term if they trade Petey.

I understand that. My comment was aimed squarely about the misstatement that too many people think we can just find a superstar replacement.

 

[Canucks LB]

I do wonder tho if teams that were interested in Petey would be more hesitant to trade for him after this 4 nations.

Might only be 3 games, but it was supposed to be his big reset, instead he looked even worse.
Makes you wonder what we can even get for him.

 

[Hodgy]

Again, the "what if" game works the other way with Quinn. What if he leaves?

This "anything can happen" logic from you is a cop-out. It's basically saying nothing but, "I hope it gets better". Which is fine to just be a fan, but a lot less intellectually rigorous than I usually see from you.


The argument from the "gamble on Petey crowd", and mine specifically, is that whatever "value" you get in a Petey trade is not going to make the club a contender. There are not going to be any premium assets in the package and the club will still be looking for a 1C.

The likeliest way they acquire a star 1C is if Petey returns to form. I don't think there is any path to contention in the near term if they trade Petey.

It should be acknowledged that whoever they trade Pettersson for could also become a number one centre. The odds aren’t great, but you are measuring them against the odds of Petey regaining form which may not be great either. But with the player the acquire, they remove the downside risk being Petey’s contract.

 

[bossram]

I mean there are a couple of things. Playing guys who play up to their contract would not lead to a mediocre team if those guys are like Ratanen and whoever we can get with the caps space we have. I think you guys assume that the guys we get are like 1-5M players because that’s all the cap space we had in the last few years for UFA. We do have a lot more cap space especially if we trade away Brock and also Soucy.

Also think a lot depends on Demko’s health. If Demko can get back to being healthy and Hughes remains a Hart level guy, there is enough there for us to build a deep team.

We are going to enter an era where a bunch of playoffs won’t be able to spend to the cap and that will neutralize some of the surplus value concept. Like I said before, the panthers are a model franchise, went to back to back SCF and still can’t charge more than 30ish in the upperbowl in a marquee game vs the Oilers. That is consistent with a ton of teams, Tampa, Carolina. We think they will spend to the cap but I will bet that once the cap hits 100+, there is no bloody way they will because their market won’t support it and then the fact we will spend to it because this market is sucker for paying too much money, will make up for the surplus value thing other teams have going for them.

1. I get your point about star players. But there is 0% chance of them signing Rantanen and/or Marner this offseason, so it's moot.

2. Even if Demko can sustain his peak form over a full season + playoffs (which he has never done), they'll still need a real 1C to be a contender. They need Petey to return to form too.

3. And other teams that were perennially cap-strapped but would like to spend more (e.g. Toronto, Edmonton, Vegas) will now have the room to do so. Your point here is not really a unique advantage to VAN in any way. VAN is actually handicapped somewhat by the OEL buyout hit. And if we've learned anything, I wouldn't blindly bank on massive cap increases in perpetuity.

 

[bossram]

I understand that. My comment was aimed squarely about the misstatement that too many people think we can just find a superstar replacement.

Logically, they must think they can find another superstar forward easily. The alternative is that they believe that trading Petey for a collection of B-tier assets would result in a contending team.

 

[arttk]

1. I get your point about star players. But there is 0% chance of them signing Rantanen and/or Marner this offseason, so it's moot.

2. Even if Demko can sustain his peak form over a full season + playoffs (which he has never done), they'll still need a real 1C to be a contender. They need Petey to return to form too.

3. And other teams that were perennially cap-strapped but would like to spend more (e.g. Toronto, Edmonton, Vegas) will now have the room to do so. Your point here is not really a unique advantage to VAN in any way. VAN is actually handicapped somewhat by the OEL buyout hit. And if we've learned anything, I wouldn't blindly bank on massive cap increases in perpetuity.

1.) who knows, maybe they can be good at big game hunting, maybe the Scandinavian connection and we get Ehlers. If not, I am guessing if they spend 8M on a UFA, that player will deliver 8M of value which is what we need at the top line.
2.) yes
3.) well Toronto will always lose in the 1st round so why worry. It’s not just about spending money but execution as well. Every GM makes mistakes and I think this group has a tendency to say f*** it when they make a mistake and pay to make it go away. Over the long term, the trade off is less assets but within each season, you can argue that this approach ensures we maximize the effect of each dollar spent. I don’t think other GMs have a similar approach so any mistake is dead money and they tend to double down on it.

 

[bossram]

It should be acknowledged that whoever they trade Pettersson for could also become a number one centre. The odds aren’t great, but you are measuring them against the odds of Petey regaining form which may not be great either. But with the player the acquire, they remove the downside risk being Petey’s contract.

I am calculating that possibility in my mind. Like yeah, if Fantilli were coming back for Petey, the likelihood of him turning into a 1C is pretty favourable (along with age + contract status) relative to Petey returning to form.

But Fantilli will never be in that package. Maybe it's Sillinger, who IMO tops out as a 2C. Or it's Cozens, who I think at his best is still worse than Petey is now.

 

[arttk]

I feel like a lot of people either have zero idea what a typical offseason training regime entails or at least pretend not to know at all.

Here is a blurb from ChatGPT about what a typical offseason training look like for hockey players.

A hockey player’s offseason training program is designed to improve strength, conditioning, and skills while avoiding overtraining or injury before the new season starts. It typically consists of several key components:


1. Strength Training: Focused on building muscle and power. Players usually perform full-body workouts with an emphasis on lower body strength, core stability, and explosiveness. Exercises like squats, deadlifts, lunges, and plyometric drills are common.


2. Conditioning: High-intensity interval training (HIIT), sprints, and agility drills help maintain cardiovascular fitness and enhance endurance. Some players use off-ice sprints, cycling, and swimming to improve stamina and recovery.


3. On-Ice Training: This includes individual skill work, such as stickhandling, shooting, passing, and skating. Players often work with coaches during the offseason to improve their technical skills and skating mechanics.


4. Mobility and Flexibility: Stretching, yoga, and foam rolling help maintain flexibility and prevent injuries. Regular mobility work is essential for injury prevention and maintaining a high level of performance.

For those thinking, why would knee tendonitis affect strength training. Just think about it, dead lift, lunges, squats, polymetric drills, do anyone here really seriously believe someone with a knee injury can do all that shit at the same level as someone that is healthy? Or at least to the degree that will get his speed to like 95th percentile of the league.

 

[bossram]

1.) who knows, maybe they can be good at big game hunting, maybe the Scandinavian connection and we get Ehlers. If not, I am guessing if they spend 8M on a UFA, that player will deliver 8M of value which is what we need at the top line.
2.) yes
3.) well Toronto will always lose in the 1st round so why worry. It’s not just about spending money but execution as well. Every GM makes mistakes and I think this group has a tendency to say f*** it when they make a mistake and pay to make it go away. Over the long term, the trade off is less assets but within each season, you can argue that this approach ensures we maximize the effect of each dollar spent. I don’t think other GMs have a similar approach so any mistake is dead money and they tend to double down on it.

1. Part of this is hopium. "Maybe they'll find a different star player!" They already struck out on Guentzel. And an $8M UFA just basically replaces what Boeser is right now. They need that in addition to a true star player.

3. More Hopium. Your argument applies to every team: "Oh yeah, well...the GM has to execute!". It's basically a meaningless statement. Allvin has to execute too. Your argument was that a rising cap will uniquely benefit the Canucks relative to other contenders because others will not be able to afford to spend to the rising cap. I demonstrated this is false, as many other cap-strapped contenders would love to be able to spend more - a lot more. I think there's a case where Aqua also wouldn't spend to a $115+M cap either. You've now pivoted/moved the goalposts to a completely different argument that is basically meaningless.

 

[TruGr1t]

Again, the "what if" game works the other way with Quinn. What if he leaves?

This "anything can happen" logic from you is a cop-out. It's basically saying nothing but, "I hope it gets better". Which is fine to just be a fan, but a lot less intellectually rigorous than I usually see from you.


The argument from the "gamble on Petey crowd", and mine specifically, is that whatever "value" you get in a Petey trade is not going to make the club a contender. There are not going to be any premium assets in the package and the club will still be looking for a 1C.

The likeliest way they acquire a star 1C is if Petey returns to form. I don't think there is any path to contention in the near term if they trade Petey.

It's not so much hopium, as if things work out on the blueline I think you're pretty much halfway there. So you've at least got a shot. I think the biggest question mark actually isn't even Pettersson, it may well be Demko. If you also have top-five goaltending and cap space you're in a pretty good spot to build through the summer. Will it work? Who knows? We do know this organization likely won't rebuild, but I don't think it's quite as bleak given where the defense is trending.

 

[arttk]

1. Part of this is hopium. "Maybe they'll find a different star player!" They already struck out on Guentzel. And an $8M UFA just basically replaces what Boeser is right now. They need that in addition to a true star player.

3. More Hopium. Your argument applies to every team: "Oh yeah, well...the GM has to execute!". It's basically a meaningless statement. Allvin has to execute too. Your argument was that a rising cap will uniquely benefit the Canucks relative to other contenders because others will not be able to afford to spend to the rising cap. I demonstrated this is false, as many other cap-strapped contenders would love to be able to spend more - a lot more. You've now pivoted/moved the goalposts to a completely different argument that is basically meaningless.

Stepping back, to be successful, you would need the GM to be able to execute. If the GM can’t then it doesn’t matter if we rebuild or build, it’s going to look like shit.

1.) is it hopium that they will find the right targets and be able to get them? I don’t think so. I mean we’ll see who they target and get soon enough and what we they do will answer this. Is it doable, yes, has the management group shown to be able to do it, somewhat but I don’t think we have had an offseason with as much cap to use and as little space to fill.

3.) also I think Allvin has shown to have a track record in the last 2 offseason of being able to execute and then when he makes mistakes, correct them within the season.
Well other cap strapped contenders will spend more, but how many are there really and also how many of them can execute as well? I think the best execution contenders will probably not spend to the cap. I think the biggest one that can spend and can execute is Vegas but their core is aging FAST. Edmonton has the elite talent but the execution so far is meh and it’s tbd if they will really spend to the cap. Rangers will spend but their core is aging out faster than Vegas. Peg is not going to spend to the cap. Tampa, Florida and Canes will most likely not spend to the cap. Toronto will spend to the cap for sure and Treliving has a mixed record when it comes to execution.

I mean yes we have to execute and looking at the record, I think we can execute better than most teams other than Florida, Tampa, Vegas and Canes and only Vegas has the same spending power we do.

 

[xtr3m]

I do wonder tho if teams that were interested in Petey would be more hesitant to trade for him after this 4 nations.

Might only be 3 games, but it was supposed to be his big reset, instead he looked even worse.
Makes you wonder what we can even get for him.

Whatever one might think about Miller, he has a market as he fills one of the most important roles for playoff teams (an elite shutdown forward).

Petey, unfortunately, is in a "project" market/category now: he might return to a 100 point form and it will require a number of things to go absolutely right (rest, training, coaching, mental work). Oh, and the cost to find out? $11.6M year. And an NMC. Don't think are many other teams up for this challenge.

 

[Agent007]

I do wonder tho if teams that were interested in Petey would be more hesitant to trade for him after this 4 nations.

Might only be 3 games, but it was supposed to be his big reset, instead he looked even worse.
Makes you wonder what we can even get for him.

A fair question so let’s considered the rumored names being mentioned:

Buffalo: Cozens and Byram. Buffalo does this a million times over and not exactly likely Cozens has done anything to increase his value (now with MP40 this makes Bryam less attractive to Vancouver so that piece would need to change but either way you’re gambling on the 1C coming back)

NYI: Dobson. Pretty fair to think that was on the table but again that trade makes little sense for Vancouver with no C coming back.

Ottawa: Norris. As a piece coming back for Petey what you wanna bet on peteys head or Norris’s shoulder?

CBJ: Not really sure who they would consider but sure felt like the interest was lukewarm (no Fantalli however).

Chicago: Would want to build a package around futures and I can’t see Vancouver doing that while trying to retain Hughes.


Is there anyone among the rumored players being offered that really feels like a missed opportunity? At this stage it almost feels like you’re better off waiting until summer then perhaps a young C with upside (Byfield type) becomes available.

 

[mriswith]

And to your point about us saying the team should take more of a rebuild/long-term approach at the start of Allvin's tenure (I believe we were both in that camp), were we ultimately really that wrong? It took a string of several successful, undervalued pro scouting targets to get the club to a "competitive" level. I don't think we can really say the Canucks were really a serious contender at any point though. And it would take another string of even more successful moves or strokes of fortune to get to the next level.

In hindsight, trading our UFA aged players for 2023 1sts was easily the best move we could possibly have made. The picks made in the slots that our UFA aged players had offers for are tracking like potential major pieces now and are bubbling up for NHL ice time next season.

The craziest part is that this was completely obvious at the time and didn't need hindsight at all, and now we either traded or have tried to trade every single one of the players we should have sold back then.

I can't see your statement "Too many think we can just find a superstar replacement" which appears to me to be a misreading of the sentiment of those that disagree with you. The difference between their position and yours is actually fairly simple. While you would "rather gamble on Pete getting his form back" the people who think he should be traded don't want to make that gamble and would rather get some value for him rather than risk being stuck with his big contract if he isn't going to be able, for whatever reason, to bring his play up to past levels.

On any fan forum we're likely to find a small number of dreamers who hope to find a superstar replacement, but mostly those who would trade EP40 just don't think your gamble is worthwhile.

The problem is it's not just about EP in an isolated bubble. The problem is that teams don't win cups without a 1C, we won't get one back for EP, we don't see any viable options for that role in UFA, and none are on the market in the foreseeable future.

So "mitigating the loss" by trading EP now for a bunch of meh pieces is a disaster for dreams of contending.

It makes us better at being a consistent bubble team and we'd remove the downside risk of him permanently being a 7mil player instead of 11.6, but we also would remove the upside of ever being a contender.

It isn't very tempting when there's still a good chance, as far as it's possible to tell from where we are sitting, that EP returns to at least ppg form next year after a proper offseason.

 

[GranvilleIsland]

The Petey redemption arc is gonna be epic otherwise we're screwed.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Four Nations may have been worse than anything else because everyone watched it, and he barely managed fourth-line minutes.

Yea I remember saying before the games started that there is a possibility that Petey would stick out in a bad way because every player here is a top end talent, there's no 4th liners or 3rd pairing guys to potentially feast on.

I have watched none of Sweden's games but all of their highlights and I honestly don't think I saw Petey in any of them except for a faceoff? So while he is creating nothing, he also isn't on the ice for chances against. So I guess that's fairly similar to his NHL games this season?

At this point I just feel sad for him. I'm sure he is a proud guy and this 12 months has got to chipped away his pride. Hope he can overcome it, but it for sure won't be this season. So it makes trading away Boeser much easier, imo