Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | The Final Countdown

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Vector's NHL Transaction Tracker.

Some Important Off-Season Dates

Buyout Period: 48 hours after the SCF; players without NMCs must be placed on unconditional waivers 24 hours prior (another buyout period opens if a team has a player file for arbitration)
Team-Elected Arbitration: 48 hours after the SCF
Draft Day 01: June 28th
Draft Day 02: June 29th
Qualifying Offer Date: July 1st
Free Agency Opens: July 1st, 9am PST
Summer Development Camp: July 1st-4th
Player-Elected Arbitration: July 5th
Young Stars Classic Tournament: Sep. 13th-16th

Click to read more...

 

[MS]

But by and large, it's guys like Dakota Joshua who have clawed and fought and struggled to drag themselves up to "decent skater" and suddenly became more effective, who age the absolute worst. That's also like a lightswitch when they lose that half step and are suddenly just late for every single hit, late getting to the net for goals, late getting to a lane on the PK, late for literally everything because they just cannot afford to lose a step.

I don't even know if it's as simple as that - guys like Joel Ward and Mike Knuble* are cut from the same cloth as Joshua and aged like fine wine.

Really, the best formula for aging is to be a superstar. The guys age 35+ who scored 50+ points last year are basically all HHOFers ... and Mats Zuccarello, weirdly.


*as an aside, my all-time favourite stat is that Mike Knuble had 228 goals after age 30 and Wayne Gretzky had 176.

 

[HairyKneel]

It's really more about the type of skater they are. There's a lot more nuance to it than that.

Did Lidstrom or Niedermayer really "fall off" as they aged? Is Crosby aging poorly? Guys who skate and generate easy power fare pretty well.

Even Zucker...he's falling off, but he's still playing and scoring well into his 30s. He was never as fluid though. Much more of a brute force speedster. Guys like Pavelski occasionally succeed, Holmstrom, Brunette, etc. as guys whose entire game is basically stationary goal-scoring in the first place. But there are far more of those who fail out with age than success stories.


Injuries play a huge role as well. But in general...


It's the guys who have to work extra hard for it, like Eriksson/Backes/Neal/Ladd who age particularly badly. The guys who aren't great skaters and then work their way into being decent, then fall back again. And it's the guys who need every single step they've got to get in on the forecheck and play physical who age like milk. The Lucic, Dakota Joshua types. When they lose half a step...they can't play their game anymore. They just chase the play around in futility, acting fake tough.

If nothing else, Stephenson plays with far more natural momentum in his game. Same way "Good Petey" masks his shitty skating when he's playing with confidence and anticipation.



I'm open to the idea that Stephenson's "two way game" somehow "cratered" if it can be explained. But i don't really buy what i've seen, and i attribute it more to situation factors. I don't see a player who just forgot how to play defensively or got substantially slower suddenly. I see different deployments and massively disrupted team chemistry issues as a bigger factor.

Yeah... that was a really strange take. Igor Larionov played into his 40's. Chris Chelios, Fedorov, Almo etc.....

I always wonder what Scotty N could have done if not shackled to the Devils system. One of the purest, smoothest skaters to lace them up. Played both ends of the ice. I think he's easily a 1000 point D man playing elsewhere but does he have 3 cups not playing Jacques and Larry or having a mentor like Scott Stevens?

 

[Nuckles]

Something I haven't really thought about, would playing that power forward/grinder style of play wear your body down a lot more long-term in the NHL vs. lower levels? (AHL/ECHL/college)

Because up to age 28 guys like Lucic and Backes both had around 7-8 full NHL seasons under their belts, mostly with top 6 minutes as well (also not including playoffs). If we're just going by hits they racked up around 1600 and 1400 up to that point just in the regular season.

This was Joshua's first season with meaningful ice time, and only his 2nd full-ish season in the NHL. That's not to say his play in the AHL, ECHL, and college wasn't physically demanding, but the NHL can be an entirely different beast when it comes to that. And it could mean not falling off as quickly into his 30s if we're just talking about his body holding up.

 

[LandfiII]

Yeah... that was a really strange take. Igor Larionov played into his 40's. Chris Chelios, Fedorov, Almo etc.....

I always wonder what Scotty N could have done if not shackled to the Devils system. One of the purest, smoothest skaters to lace them up. Played both ends of the ice. I think he's easily a 1000 point D man playing elsewhere but does he have 3 cups not playing Jacques and Larry or having a mentor like Scott Stevens?

Uh oh, Scott Stevens reference...how shall we cancel him today?

 

[David71]

Looking like we may be back to square one by October...

You just pray that some of those Abbotsford Canuck players take a massive development leap.

yeah those abbotsford cnaucks players wont take a massive devlopment at all. if they impress at camp then sure. but i doubt it.

 

[David71]

Actually watched the opening segment of Donnie and Dhali today.

-was surprised that Tocchet said "we can lose 7 guys" over the weekend
-still quiet on Zadorov and Joshua
-talks continue with Tyler Myers agent but there is work to do there
-do not want to lose Joshua but aren't getting to his cap number

then so be it. but must at least sign 1 or 2 of the 7 back. if they ask for more money/term then kick em to the curb and find someone else.

 

[Wry n Ginger]

Upcoming time-line pressure points...

- I think this mgmt team will trade Hronek if they can't sign him rather than going to Arb.

- I think they will push hard to dump Mikh before preseason games begin but not feel a ton of pressure since they will want to assess his recovery after the off-season. If they still want to move him expect more of a Beauvillier type early season move. Remember we got a 5th for waiting for the right opportunity to move his contract.

- Silovs is not going to be the backup without a proven vet waiting in the wings. Canucks will monitor Tolopio and Sawchenko to see if the can back up or #1 Abby...but I gotta believe they will want DeSmith type as back up.

- Which Abby D gets the big looks during pre-season. I predict that there will be some VERY inspired bottom 12 forwards and 5/6 defenseman who will be training their ASSES off this summer.

Kick.some M Fing ass this year prospects...get your name out there. Figure out who you are passing on the depth chart and make it happen!!

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

So in summary Your Honour, the Canucks cunning plan is to get worse and in doing so, get better and win a Cup.

Never been executed successfully before, but ok.

 

[F A N]

I don't even know if it's as simple as that - guys like Joel Ward and Mike Knuble* are cut from the same cloth as Joshua and aged like fine wine.

Really, the best formula for aging is to be a superstar. The guys age 35+ who scored 50+ points last year are basically all HHOFers ... and Mats Zuccarello, weirdly.


*as an aside, my all-time favourite stat is that Mike Knuble had 228 goals after age 30 and Wayne Gretzky had 176.

I'm not sure that Knuble is cut from the same cloth. He can't skate. Ward wasn't a great skater either but he was better than Knuble. Knuble played in a different era and really isn't a comparable. Both Knuble and Ward were really strong. Of the two, Ward is definitely the better comparable.

I think Joshua is the better skater but he's not that strong. If he maintains his work ethic, I agree with you that he can age well. Similar to Ward, Joshua should have less wear and tear.

Speaking of players who aged well, Pavelski is interesting. He started putting together a HOF career at ~age 29. If JT Miller ages the same way he might end up with a HOF career.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

People don't seem to understand that a rental who shows your group what they're capable of, and helps get you decently deep into the playoffs, has more value beyond raw assets.

Showing your core you believe in them, getting them used to having major pieces come in mid-season for when rentals happen again, and getting that experience, has a ton of LT value.

This has major "why are we playing Quinn Hughes 25+ minutes a night and Petey/Miller 20+ when we should be tanking for draft picks?" vibes. Those minutes at the end of 2023 set us up for this 2023/2024 season, much like going to game 7 in round 2 will set this team up to deal with playoff adversity moving forward - this likely doesn't happen without Lindholm.

This management group isn't average, its fans who are too dense to think beyond tangible assets on the board that are.

i like this, lindholm as new age sundin

and yeah, sundin wasn’t a rental per se, but it’s definitely lost here that lindholm not having term was a feature not a bug

The Zadorov thing kinda bugs me more than anything else, as they had an opportunity to effectively sign him right after the trade at a much lower than current rate, and decided to wait. I can understand why with a new player, but that decision looks like it could result in him leaving.

process-wise seeing what zad (and hronek) could do and how they fit makes sense, even if they each increased their value and possibly priced themselves out of the range. the obverse is being stuck with brandon sutter on a longterm auto-extension.

 

[JT Milker]

.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

So in summary Your Honour, the Canucks cunning plan is to get worse and in doing so, get better and win a Cup.

Never been executed successfully before, but ok.

You're just spouting this nonsense into the ether. To what end, I'm not sure.

For one thing, literally nothing has happened yet.

For another, you're judgment on hockey seems askew.

 

[tantalum]

I think Joshua is an important part to the team. You noticed when he was not in the lineup. He clicks with Garland and we haven't seen any other player have that chemistry with Garland. Those two wingers do form an excellent third third line no matter who is between them. They can also both float in and out of the top 6 I think.

I look at the cap going up over the next half decade by a fair amount and that the team is on the way up - I go term on Joshua to being down the cap hit. He's an in demand player but I don't believe he is going to see much beyond 3-4 year offers. If I'm management I look to front load a deal and go long term to get the AAV down.

Now I fully expect everything to be quiet at this point. If I'm not wrong, UFAs can start talking to teams on June 25. That's a week from now and it make little sense for a pending UFA not to have discussions with teams before July 1 once you hit the off season. Especially when you don't know what the market is going to say about your skill set. This applies to Joshua but also very much to Lindholm (excellent two-way center, right handed PKer) and Zadorov (we all saw why...). During that discussion time, they are going to see the possible deals on the table and canucks management will be better able to make an informed decision on how to move forward.

 

[Jovofan]

The more time that passes without an extension announcement the more nervous I become of Zadorov not coming back here. Come on Allvin!

 

[ManVanFan]

I think Joshua is an important part to the team. You noticed when he was not in the lineup. He clicks with Garland and we haven't seen any other player have that chemistry with Garland. Those two wingers do form an excellent third third line no matter who is between them. They can also both float in and out of the top 6 I think.

I look at the cap going up over the next half decade by a fair amount and that the team is on the way up - I go term on Joshua to being down the cap hit. He's an in demand player but I don't believe he is going to see much beyond 3-4 year offers. If I'm management I look to front load a deal and go long term to get the AAV down.

Now I fully expect everything to be quiet at this point. If I'm not wrong, UFAs can start talking to teams on June 25. That's a week from now and it make little sense for a pending UFA not to have discussions with teams before July 1 once you hit the off season. Especially when you don't know what the market is going to say about your skill set. This applies to Joshua but also very much to Lindholm (excellent two-way center, right handed PKer) and Zadorov (we all saw why...). During that discussion time, they are going to see the possible deals on the table and canucks management will be better able to make an informed decision on how to move forward.

It's probably a contract like Marcus Foligno and Jason Dickinson. Teams that are not in the contending timeline, not worth it to a contending teams cap structure.

 

[ManVanFan]

The more time that passes without an extension announcement the more nervous I become of Zadorov not coming back here. Come on Allvin!

Last off season, I wanted Van to sign Niko Mikkola. Florida picked him up for 3X2.5M. For players that are similar and comparable, it's hard to see Van paying double that almost.

 

[Jerry the great]

It's the guys who have to work extra hard for it, like Eriksson/Backes/Neal/Ladd who age particularly badly. The guys who aren't great skaters and then work their way into being decent, then fall back again. And it's the guys who need every single step they've got to get in on the forecheck and play physical who age like milk. The Lucic, Dakota Joshua types. When they lose half a step...they can't play their game anymore. They just chase the play around in futility, acting fake tough.

If nothing else, Stephenson plays with far more natural momentum in his game. Same way "Good Petey" masks his shitty skating when he's playing with confidence and anticipation.

I'm open to the idea that Stephenson's "two way game" somehow "cratered" if it can be explained. But i don't really buy what i've seen, and i attribute it more to situation factors. I don't see a player who just forgot how to play defensively or got substantially slower suddenly. I see different deployments and massively disrupted team chemistry issues as a bigger factor.

I think fans probably generally underestimate how hard it is to work as hard as these guys have to work to stay at/near the top of their games.

I have a simple explanation of why Stephenson's game fell off last year. Or why his skating fell off...which led to an overall decline. 3 of the last 4 years, Vegas has gone deep into the playoffs and 2 of those 3 years were condensed/weird schedules. He's played a ton of playoff hockey in a quest to get to the top of the mountain and finally got there last summer. I'm guessing he didn't put the same work in last summer than he might otherwise have. How could he....there is only so much time for these guys to prepare for the next season.


as to whether he'll age like wine, or milk - without knowing the player, how hard/easy it is for him to want to put the work in - it's pretty hard to say. But I bet he'll have a great first few years on his new deal. He's also built to age well. Huge legs...hocky players lower body.


Sid is still up near the top because he's driven like a madman and he's blessed with insane tools and a toolbox to match.. McDavid will probably be the same.

probably the biggest unicorn was Chara...that guy is crushing marathons now. crazy.

 

[Vector]

Non-Canucks rumour but it’s a good example of why teams are waiting to make moves. Flyers trying to open cap room but it’s not until the SCF is over that the buyout period ends. Flyers are one of the only teams that seems willing to take on bad contracts.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Non-Canucks rumour but it’s a good example of why teams are waiting to make moves. Flyers trying to open cap room but it’s not until the SCF is over that the buyout period ends. Flyers are one of the only teams that seems willing to take on bad contracts.

I'd flip Mik for Atkinson quite easily if possible.

 

[arttk]

Based on everything we’re hearing I’m not sure this isn’t a pretty likely outcome. The rumoured numbers aren’t working for most of these players in the cap structure, and they may prefer to let the dust settle and then go shopping. Only guy I still think they keep is Hronek, but I’m a lot less certain on that than I was a month ago.

i am getting a sense that they have their targets and a budget for each and they won't overpay. I think it's pretty likely that we will extend Myers and Bluegar and let the rest walk. Also very likely that they have like a small list of UFA targets for July 1st and if those guys don't sign then management will just sit back and wait to trade with teams that f***ed their own cap in UFA.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Last off season, I wanted Van to sign Niko Mikkola. Florida picked him up for 3X2.5M. For players that are similar and comparable, it's hard to see Van paying double that almost.

It doesn't get commented on as much but this was an unbelievable move for Florida. Picked up a guy who'd just established himself as an NHLer and basically locked in a top 4 mainstay. He'll provide huge surplus value over the life of this contract.

 

[bossram]

Ultimately, what you think of Graves is going to be the major fulcrum on that "risk/reward" calculation. If you hate him, and always have...then yeah, it's going to be next to impossible to balance that.

Personally, i think he's rounded into a reasonably solid #4/5 tweener at worst, with the potential to play an actual shutdown/matchup role with the right partner and system.

But then, i get the impression here that you don't particularly value that "type" of defenceman at all. As you also seem eager to move on from Zadorov. Which is fair, if the price gets as stupid as it sounds. But i'd bet the farm that you absolutely hate Trouba as well...for instance. So trying to make that scale balance is probably just never happening for you on the risk/reward aspect.

Really on the contrary, I've come to value this type of player much more over time. The issue is that I just don't think some of these guys are good. Graves is a shinpad sniper and makes bizarre decisions far too often. Trouba is like a 4D making $8M. Yeah, wouldn't want that either.

I thought Zadorov was great for VAN and I've been very clear I liked the trade as a rental. But there is a walk-away price for every player and the numbers thrown around for Zadorov are far too high for a guy who's never had a regular top-four role and only played bottom-tier competition in his career, save for a nice 12 game stretch in the playoffs.

I find the NHL Edge data more of an amusing novelty than any actual sort of evaluation tool tbh. It's convenient if it lines up to confirm something you're seeing visually while watching, but a lot of the data is just pure noise or peripheral nonsense.

I didn't necessarily feel like Stephenson "lost a step" in his skating last year. He's still got very fluid, easy speed. He's also not the type of skater that tends to "fall off a cliff" the same way, because of that.

I don't even really get what Vegas are doing overall. I'd take Stephenson @ $6M x 6 in a heartbeat over Hertl @ $6.75M x 6 as he's retained down to. But maybe Hertl is my Graves. I've never really cared for the guy. And at this point, the production is basically the same, same age...but he's a lot slower, less versatile, less reliable two-way player, and he's exactly the sort of clunky skater who will wake up one day as Loui Eriksson flying off a cliff with no landing in sight. Especially considering Hertl is coming off another major knee injury, with a long, multi-incident history of his knees falling apart already throughout his career.

I pretty much agree with you on the NHL Edge data. I wouldn't draw any conclusions on a player based on it.

But if my thinking was something along the lines of, "Stephenson's skating doesn't look as explosive or strong", and "his shot/chance metrics all took a nosedive", and then you look at his skating metrics on EDGE and find they're all down, there might be something to that. His best attribute, and the attribute that is core to his game, is his elite skating. If the skating starts to slip, and it may have already, he is fundamentally not the same player and nowhere near as valuable.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

If your Vancouver Canucks prioritize Myers and Blueger they are in big trouble.

If they miss out on resigning Zadorov or Joshua or Lindholm because they don't want to offer term, they are also in big trouble.

 

[TruGr1t]

If your Vancouver Canucks prioritize Myers and Blueger they are in big trouble.

If they miss out on resigning Zadorov or Joshua or Lindholm because they don't want to offer term, they are also in big trouble.

I highly doubt it's a question of term. Lindholm clearly wasn't signing here outside of severe overpayment to play third fiddle to Miller and Pettersson, and Joshua and Zadorov appear to be looking at the top range of their salary estimates ($4M AAV Joshua / $6M AAV Zadorov). They would be even more screwed if they capitulated on these cap numbers (or even slightly lower deals like $3.5M+ Joshua / ~$5M Zadorov) and hamstrung themselves to keep portions of this group together, with no outlet for improvements due to the cap. You'd pretty much lock yourself into taking a step back next year, whereas they are looking to improve.

 

[tantalum]

NHL Edge stuff can be useful but I must caution that there is only 3 years worth of data. There is not enough data to actually trend and make conclusions on if a player is on the downhill side of his career or if there are other factors that maybe affected them. In the end someone like Stephenson was still 95th percentile for speed bursts. Yes his top speed declined but the bursts indicate he still has speed to spare.