GDT: Canes vs Avs (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Seth Jarvis)

[ndp]

And with that game Canes drop to a league worst 8.1% shooting

Just like having an insanely high SH%, one that low shouldn’t be the norm for this team. Hopefully it turns around sooner rather than later, these past few games have been almost unbearable to watch. Only one way to go from here.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I think the Power play would improve dramatically if Brindy broke a few more pens, and popped a few more neck veins while drawing it up.

 

[hblueridgegal]

Maybe being dead last will prove to be motivating. The players, at least, looked mad and embarrassed about it.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Maybe being dead last will prove to be motivating.

FTFY

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Just like having an insanely high SH%, one that low shouldn’t be the norm for this team. Hopefully it turns around sooner rather than later, these past few games have been almost unbearable to watch. Only one way to go from here.

to some extent that's true. I agree with you that there should be some turnaround / regression to the mean as some guys aren't finishing like they should be (and Patches returning will help). Yet, the style the Canes are playing right now contributes to a lower shooting %. The team throws everything at the net and have defensemen that take a lot of shots so it likely means you are taking a lot of lower chance shots and will have a lower shooting %.

For context:

Canes have the highest "LDCF/60" in the league (Low danger corsi for) in all situations followed by Florida and Calgary. They are 3rd in MDCF/60 behind Florida and NJ. They are 6th in HDCF/60 as well (all situations). The more LD and MD shots they take, the lower the SH% will be. The Canes shooting % in each category:
HDSH%: 12.8%. (31st ranked in the NHL)
MDSH%: 12.73% (7th ranked in the NHL)
LDSH%: 2.99% ( 28th ranked in the NHL).

What this data tells me is that the Canes SHOULD seem some improvement in SH% for the HDSH%. We aren't the 31st ranked team in terms of talent so that's got to improve over time, particularly when Pacioretty gets in the line-up. We'll never be near the top though since we take so many LD shots as well.

Secondly, Contributing to this is that. The Canes have 3 defensemen in the top 25 in Shots on goal (and Pesce is 47th). Burns is #2, Slavin is #18, Skjei is #24. They have taken 214 of the Canes 621 shots (~35%). If you look at the top 4 teams in 5v5 Shot attempts /60 min., none of them are near the top in terms of SH% (NJ is the best of the group at 13th in the NHL 5v5).

Florida: 7.66% 5v5 SH%
NJD: 8.8% 5v5 SH%
Calgary: 7.45% SH%
Carolina: 8.11% SH%

The top 4 5v5 SH% teams are below, in parenthesis where their DMEN are in shots this year.
Dallas: (150 shots by DMEN out of 515 - 29%)
Pittsburgh: (137 shots by DMEN out of 575 - 24%)
Boston: 10 (151 shots by DMEN out of 575 - 26%)
Tampa: 20th ( 146 shots by DMEN out of 531 - 27%)

Canes have taken anywhere from 6-11% more shots from their defensemen than the top sh% team in the league. That will likely drive a lower SH%.

To make a short story long, I do expect to see their sh% improve, but given how they throw so much at the net, it won't likely be a huge jump.

 

[ndp]

to some extent that's true. I agree with you that there should be some turnaround / regression to the mean as some guys aren't finishing like they should be (and Patches returning will help). Yet, the style the Canes are playing right now contributes to a lower shooting %. The team throws everything at the net and have defensemen that take a lot of shots so it likely means you are taking a lot of lower chance shots and will have a lower shooting %.

For context:

Canes have the highest "LDCF/60" in the league (Low danger corsi for) in all situations followed by Florida and Calgary. They are 3rd in MDCF/60 behind Florida and NJ. They are 6th in HDCF/60 as well (all situations). The more LD and MD shots they take, the lower the SH% will be. The Canes shooting % in each category:
HDSH%: 12.8%. (31st ranked in the NHL)
MDSH%: 12.73% (7th ranked in the NHL)
LDSH%: 2.99% ( 28th ranked in the NHL).

What this data tells me is that the Canes SHOULD seem some improvement in SH% for the HDSH%. We aren't the 31st ranked team in terms of talent so that's got to improve over time, particularly when Pacioretty gets in the line-up. We'll never be near the top though since we take so many LD shots as well.

Secondly, Contributing to this is that. The Canes have 3 defensemen in the top 25 in Shots on goal (and Pesce is 47th). Burns is #2, Slavin is #18, Skjei is #24. They have taken 214 of the Canes 621 shots (~35%). If you look at the top 4 teams in 5v5 Shot attempts /60 min., none of them are near the top in terms of SH% (NJ is the best of the group at 13th in the NHL 5v5).

Florida: 7.66% 5v5 SH%
NJD: 8.8% 5v5 SH%
Calgary: 7.45% SH%
Carolina: 8.11% SH%

The top 4 5v5 SH% teams are below, in parenthesis where their DMEN are in shots this year.
Dallas: (150 shots by DMEN out of 515 - 29%)
Pittsburgh: (137 shots by DMEN out of 575 - 24%)
Boston: 10 (151 shots by DMEN out of 575 - 26%)
Tampa: 20th ( 146 shots by DMEN out of 531 - 27%)

Canes have taken anywhere from 6-11% more shots from their defensemen than the top sh% team in the league. That will likely drive a lower SH%.

To make a short story long, I do expect to see their sh% improve, but given how they throw so much at the net, it won't likely be a huge jump.

With FL’s numbers looking like they do is that a Maurice thing? Is that where Rod’s systems come from.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

With FL’s numbers looking like they do is that a Maurice thing? Is that where Rod’s systems come from.

Hard to tell. Florida last year had the most shots, HDCF, MDCF and were 7th in LDCF last year, so very similar to this year, but had a higher shooting %. Last year vs. this year (all situations):

Shots: 37.3 vs. 40.6
HDCF/60: 14.33 vs. 16.18
MDCF/60: 20.5 vs. 23.02
LDCF/60: 25.77 vs. 28.74

So they are getting more high danger and medium danger shots as well as LD, but given the sample size, it's hard to say how statistically significant it is.

Shots against:
SA/60: 30.28 vs. 31.14
HDCA/60: 12.15 vs. 11.8
MDCA/60: 15.17 vs. 13.67
LDCA/60: 20.79 vs. 23.31

So they are allowing a similar number of shots vs. last year, but have slightly reduced the high danger and medium danger chances, thus making teams take more low danger shots.

I haven't watched Florida, but from these numbers, I don't see that much difference y-y in terms of scoring chances for. They just aren't cashing in as much. They do seem to be reducing the high/medium chances against though but again, not sure how statistically significant it is.

I think Rod's system is similar to Peter's system.

 

[surfzone365]

Not the result we wanted but at least it’s 1 point. Take it out in Minny

 

[Stickpucker]

to some extent that's true. I agree with you that there should be some turnaround / regression to the mean as some guys aren't finishing like they should be (and Patches returning will help). Yet, the style the Canes are playing right now contributes to a lower shooting %. The team throws everything at the net and have defensemen that take a lot of shots so it likely means you are taking a lot of lower chance shots and will have a lower shooting %.

For context:

Canes have the highest "LDCF/60" in the league (Low danger corsi for) in all situations followed by Florida and Calgary. They are 3rd in MDCF/60 behind Florida and NJ. They are 6th in HDCF/60 as well (all situations). The more LD and MD shots they take, the lower the SH% will be. The Canes shooting % in each category:
HDSH%: 12.8%. (31st ranked in the NHL)
MDSH%: 12.73% (7th ranked in the NHL)
LDSH%: 2.99% ( 28th ranked in the NHL).

What this data tells me is that the Canes SHOULD seem some improvement in SH% for the HDSH%. We aren't the 31st ranked team in terms of talent so that's got to improve over time, particularly when Pacioretty gets in the line-up. We'll never be near the top though since we take so many LD shots as well.

Secondly, Contributing to this is that. The Canes have 3 defensemen in the top 25 in Shots on goal (and Pesce is 47th). Burns is #2, Slavin is #18, Skjei is #24. They have taken 214 of the Canes 621 shots (~35%). If you look at the top 4 teams in 5v5 Shot attempts /60 min., none of them are near the top in terms of SH% (NJ is the best of the group at 13th in the NHL 5v5).

Florida: 7.66% 5v5 SH%
NJD: 8.8% 5v5 SH%
Calgary: 7.45% SH%
Carolina: 8.11% SH%

The top 4 5v5 SH% teams are below, in parenthesis where their DMEN are in shots this year.
Dallas: (150 shots by DMEN out of 515 - 29%)
Pittsburgh: (137 shots by DMEN out of 575 - 24%)
Boston: 10 (151 shots by DMEN out of 575 - 26%)
Tampa: 20th ( 146 shots by DMEN out of 531 - 27%)

Canes have taken anywhere from 6-11% more shots from their defensemen than the top sh% team in the league. That will likely drive a lower SH%.

To make a short story long, I do expect to see their sh% improve, but given how they throw so much at the net, it won't likely be a huge jump.

Adding to this...being a smaller team makes it harder to get to the HD areas especially if you're not trying to generate offense on the rush and want to cycle down low with small players.

You even heard Pesce last night in the intermission talk about how hard it was for the Canes forwards to get to the middle of the ice with the Avs large D.

 

[ndp]

Adding to this...being a smaller team makes it harder to get to the HD areas especially if you're not trying to generate offense on the rush and want to cycle down low with small players.

You even heard Pesce last night in the intermission talk about how hard it was for the Canes forwards to get to the middle of the ice with the Avs large D.

Part of Makars game that isn’t talked about as much is his physicality. Dude can throw some monster hits and has plenty of high end skating ability to get right back into the play.

Seems like too many times when a Hurricanes player tries to lay a big hit they end up taking themselves out of the play resulting in numbers going the other way.

 

[Negan4Coach]

He said off-season not TD

Okay you will take Ian Cole and STFU

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I agree that the numbers are horrible, but look at how those goals took place. First goal, Jordan accidentally feeds the puck directly to an Av in the slot. Second goal, two Canes collide at the blue line to allow a clean breakaway. Third goal, Jarvis blows a tire deep in the zone to send an odd man break the other way.

Obviously you'd love Raanta to steal one of those, but to me the defense and goaltending was not the issue in this game. We smothered them aside from a handful of severely blown plays where the goalie was hung out to dry. The larger issue was the 2 goals on 49 shots, where one of them was frankly an unearned gaffe by the Avs. That level of offensive conversion is almost always going to lead to an L, let alone against a good team. There were tons of opportunities to get deflections, bury rebounds, clean shots which were passed up, power plays which never connected. Frustrating to watch.

I'm not entirely blaming Raanta, but the end result is still a sparkling .800 SV%. And you're right that the goals were created by our own gaffes, but there's very few goals in the league that aren't (at least partially) due to a mistake by another player. Hell, the Avs created a bunch of golden chances for us last night, but their goalie was able to stop the puck.

For years (namely the Ward/Darling years), we've said this team can win games if they get even average goaltending. And they proved that when they took (frankly) average goaltenders, stuck them behind our defense and found success.

But 3 goals on 14/15 shots isn't average goaltending, regardless of how the goals were created. The first goal was easily his worst last night, but it shouldn't be a big ask for him to stop the only breakaway and odd man rush he faced that night.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Sv percentage from a game doesn’t mean much.

A goalie could have sv percentages of:

35/35 shutout
21/25 .84 L
17/20 .85 OTL

That would be a .912 goalie which is pretty good. But he let up 7 goals in his last 2 games. People would be losing their minds. But he’s had a sub .900 sv percentage for 2 straight games. This guy is losing us games.

Then add in it would take the next game of 24/25 to get the goalie’s season sv percentage into top of the league standings at .923. Is he winning us games now?

using sv percentage isn’t a good way to show a goalie is or isn’t doing well in a game, 2 games or even a 4 game stretch.

 

[Derailed75]

I agree that the numbers are horrible, but look at how those goals took place. First goal, Jordan accidentally feeds the puck directly to an Av in the slot. Second goal, two Canes collide at the blue line to allow a clean breakaway. Third goal, Jarvis blows a tire deep in the zone to send an odd man break the other way.

Obviously you'd love Raanta to steal one of those, but to me the defense and goaltending was not the issue in this game. We smothered them aside from a handful of severely blown plays where the goalie was hung out to dry. The larger issue was the 2 goals on 49 shots, where one of them was frankly an unearned gaffe by the Avs. That level of offensive conversion is almost always going to lead to an L, let alone against a good team. There were tons of opportunities to get deflections, bury rebounds, clean shots which were passed up, power plays which never connected. Frustrating to watch.

And Saturday nights first goal was a rebound off the glass off of Raantas back. Not saying the Avs arent good or anything like that but in the 2 games we played them they got extremely lucky in the goals they got.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Sv percentage from a game doesn’t mean much.

A goalie could have sv percentages of:

35/35 shutout
21/25 .84 L
17/20 .85 OTL

That would be a .912 goalie which is pretty good. But he let up 7 goals in his last 2 games. People would be losing their minds. But he’s had a sub .900 sv percentage for 2 straight games. This guy is losing us games.

Then add in it would take the next game of 24/25 to get the goalie’s season sv percentage into top of the league standings at .923. Is he winning us games now?

using sv percentage isn’t a good way to show a goalie is or isn’t doing well in a game, 2 games or even a 4 game stretch.

I don't see your point. Using your example, it was likely that this hypothetical goalie was a big reason for a win on the first game and a big reason for the two losses that followed. And if he followed up with a 24/25 performance, he was likely a big factor in that game as well.

Obviously, those numbers don't tell the whole story, but generally speaking, if your goalie is posting a sub .900 SV% in a game, his performance should be under scrutiny, win or lose.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I don't see your point. Using your example, it was likely that this hypothetical goalie was a big reason for a win on the first game and a big reason for the two losses that followed. And if he followed up with a 24/25 performance, he was likely a big factor in that game as well.

Obviously, those numbers don't tell the whole story, but generally speaking, if your goalie is posting a sub .900 SV% in a game, his performance should be under scrutiny, win or lose.

Point being a sub .900 sv percentage means very little game for game. Also having a sub .900 save percentage in a game doesn’t mean he lost us anything. That is an arbitrary number we’ve made up.

We base a goalie’s worth on the end result of a season based on a number above .920. My example shows how a goalie somehow judged by this arbitrary .900 standard went from 2 games of great and 2 games of high scrutiny but still ends up one of the best in the league. So is this goalie a league leader or a mediocre goalie who only plays well half of their games?

Looking at the quality of shots against that are scored is what should be the argument.

 

[chaz4hockey]

Raanta lost the GT battle last night. At minimum, he should have saved 1 of the 3.

This year, conversation shot % aside, our special teams & goaltending are losing us games.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

(all strengths)
Through 17 last year:
HDCA: 210
HDSV% 82.39%

This season:
HDCA: 197
HDSV% 82.89

This biggest difference is our offense so far.

HDSH% 17.76 (murica) last season (16in the league)
HDSH% 12.8 (31st in the league) this season

We have dropped about 5 percentage points in both medium and low danger save percentages this season. We had a 99% chance last season in low percentage shots. We are 94.37% this season.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Point being a sub .900 sv percentage means very little game for game. Also having a sub .900 save percentage in a game doesn’t mean he lost us anything. That is an arbitrary number we’ve made up.

We base a goalie’s worth on the end result of a season based on a number above .920. My example shows how a goalie somehow judged by this arbitrary .900 standard went from 2 games of great and 2 games of high scrutiny but still ends up one of the best in the league. So is this goalie a league leader or a mediocre goalie who only plays well half of their games?

Looking at the quality of shots against that are scored is what should be the argument.

Waiting until the end of the year to decide if allowing 3 goals on 15 shots is a shitty performance for the game is a weird way to do things, but more power to you, I guess?

You’re arguing against something that I never brought up. I don’t care if Raanta is considered a league leader or a mediocre goalie. I care about his performance from this past game. A game where the team held the defending Stanley Cup champions to 15 shots, and still lost, in part due to Raanta’s performance in net.

And again, he’s not the only one to blame for that result, for sure. But it’s not something that should be swept to the side either.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Waiting until the end of the year to decide if allowing 3 goals on 15 shots is a shitty performance for the game is a weird way to do things, but more power to you, I guess?

You’re arguing against something that I never brought up. I don’t care if Raanta is considered a league leader or a mediocre goalie. I care about his performance from this past game. A game where the team held the defending Stanley Cup champions to 15 shots, and still lost, in part due to Raanta’s performance in net.

And again, he’s not the only one to blame for that result, for sure. But it’s not something that should be swept to the side either.

My point is the .9 save percentage is a end of the year mark, not a game by game standard. You are applying an end of year standard

 

[Blueline Bomber]

My point is the .9 save percentage is a end of the year mark, not a game by game standard. You are applying an end of year standard

No, it’s an individual game mark as well. 3 goals on 15 shots, or an .800 sv%, is a bad game for the goaltender, barring a ridiculous hypothetical scenario where the majority are breakaways and odd-man rushes (which wasn‘t the case last night).

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

No, it’s an individual game mark as well. 3 goals on 15 shots, or an .800 sv%, is a bad game for the goaltender, barring a ridiculous hypothetical scenario where the majority are breakaways and odd-man rushes (which wasn‘t the case last night).

Based on what exactly?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Based on what exactly?

Based on the fact that he’s a professional NHL goaltender, getting paid $2 million a year to stop pucks to win us games, and allowing 3 goals on 15 shots is not going to do that. He would tell you that himself.

 

[Negan4Coach]

I'm just glad y'all are sinking to my base negativity

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I'm just glad y'all are sinking to my base negativity

You’re talking to one of the OG Negative Nellies on the boards. Wasn’t a game that went by that I wasn’t trashing Eric Staal’s lazy ass. But I chilled after a while (coincidentally around the same time I stopped watching the team and started just following the games/results on social media).

Now my job is to watch the team, and I’m pissed off at them all over again.