Confirmed with Link: Canes Sign Defenseman Jake Gardiner to 4 Year Contract

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Where were the opportunists when O'Reilly was available for a package of meh!?

I guess Botts liked Tage Thompson and a late 1st over Hanifin? Ah, whatever, who really knows what happened there. Concerned about the here and now.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I've defended Gardiner in the past.
And I'm not stating he's not a great addition to Carolina, in fact, it might be a much better fit for him surrounded by a more defensively-orientated club who can cover his
mistakes. But I think some fans here under appreciate how many times Gardiner has messed up.

I've read some complaints about Justin Faulk....

Gardiner has given away the puck (477 in 489 games) almost the same amount as Justin Faulk (296 in 477 games) and Tim Gleasson (228 in 546 games) combined.

As a leafs fan, you must hate Morgan Reilly then. According to nhl.com, Top 20 Give away leaders on defense over the past 4 years:

Burns
Yandle
Petry
Doughty
Karlsson
Klingberg
Brodie
Rielly (321 in 316 games)
Ekblad
Seabrook
Carlson
Subban
Gardiner (311 in 305 games)
Muzzin
Byguglien
Matheson
Letang
H. Lindholm
Niskanen
Trouba

I’m thinking maybe GVAs as a metric is more indicative of the style of play (team and player) than just “mistakes”. Unless you are saying that Burns, Doughty, Karlsson, Rielly, Carlson, Ekblad, etc.. mess up more than Gardiner?

 

[Vagrant]

there was also a stat i saw about gardiner attempting the 6th most stretch passes by a defenseman and completing the 9th most. when you take that many chances, the risks are obvious. however, the results are also obvious. he's immediately the best passer on our defense in terms of creativity and looking to create with the puck on his tape rather than taking the safe out all the time. it will frustrate, inevitably, at times. however, it will also create a lot of chances for our speedy forwards who have their sticks down through the neutral zone. guys like foegele are going to love playing with him.

 

[VAcaniac]

Yeah thats definitely at least partly a reflection of how Toronto plays.

Ive watched too many Leafs games on Center Ice for some reason.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Where were the opportunists when O'Reilly was available for a package of meh!?

Maybe Buffalo didn’t offer him to Carolina. Maybe, since Dundon hadn’t yet seen attendance increases and on ice success, he wasn’t ready to pony up that bonus money. Maybe, because of uncertainty of how good the team would be, the Canes weren’t ready to give up a 1st round pick.

there are a number of plausible reasons why the team would behave differently last year vs. this year.

 

[Lempo]

Maybe Buffalo didn’t offer him to Carolina. Maybe, since Dundon hadn’t yet seen attendance increases and on ice success, he wasn’t ready to pony up that bonus money. Maybe, because of uncertainty of how good the team would be, the Canes weren’t ready to give up a 1st round pick.

there are a number of plausible reasons why the team would behave differently last year vs. this year.

Maybe... maybe the Canes fan base had done something to annoy Buffalo.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I'm not sure about that, honestly. I think that Gardiner was simply an opportunity. The rest of the league was freaking out about the RFAs with no time or brains to think about Gardiner, who was an analytics dream of a defenseman just sitting there for the taking. Did the Canes necessarily need more defense? No, but when you're one of the few teams out there that doesn't have any major RFAs to worry about, why not shoot for Gardiner if you can. Hence what happened today. Honestly, if anything happens, my guess is that Faulk or TVR gets traded for a good pick or something. Maybe if the Canes are extra-pumped, they put together a Laine package. We'll see.

Maybe, but I'm not buying it. We signed de Haan last summer on July 3 because he was a good value past the first few days of free agency. We were all shocked and amazed, but also confused because there wasn't a real need for him unless another guy got moved out. Well, nobody got moved, and 356 days later, we traded de Haan to "relieve the logjam." And in the process, we almost permanently alienated one of our best young players, if you believe reports that Pesce wanted out early in the season.

As much as I think the GMBC will continue to do what they have to do, I don't think the team is very proud of trading de Haan less than one year into a four-year free agent contract. I find it very difficult to believe we're going to set ourselves up for the same issues again this season. Simply put, none of Hamilton, Slavin, Pesce, Faulk or Gardiner belong anywhere near the third pairing of an NHL club.. You can make a solid argument that four of them are first-pairing guys and you can make another that TvR belongs in the top four of an NHL team. The team is flat-out playing with fire going into the season that way again.

I get the "find value and figure out what to do with it later" mindset. But we dodged a bullet last season by overloading our defense, and I doubt that we can pull it off twice.

I suspect a small trade with Faulk, maybe even for Puljujarvi, and I can see Hamilton being available if we want to go big-game hunting. But I simply don't see us going into the season with five top four d-men again. I sincerely hope we learned that lesson.

A TvR trade doesn't help. He doesn't even factor into this. At this point, he or Fleury are healthy scratches. And remember, TvR is a highly-underrated analytics darling making $2.3 million, and we gave Fleury a one-way deal for a solid chunk of change ($850K). I don't see the plan being to sit one of them every night.

 

[Roboturner913]

Giveaways, I take to generally be a signpost of offensive responsibility, especially for defensemen. Gardiner isn't going to be put in a position to get a lot of takeaways since he is pinching offensively and carrying the puck himself, and he's going to have more giveaways just as a natural result of being depended upon the push the play up the ice. My guess is, since he's going to be paired with another capable puck mover (which all our D are) that's not going to be nearly as much a problem.

 

[urho]

I'm just so happy. 10 years without playoffs, now a good run for it and our team looks like one of the really good ones for the next season!

 

[Vagrant]

another thing to consider, and it's an indication of how the nhl is trending in terms of powerplay formation, is that the 1-3-1 is becoming increasingly popular. it's what tampa ran last season and it's what washington ran as well. in that formation you have one pivot in the center of formation at the point. you have two options on each halfwall and you have one player positioned as a low screen in front of the goalie and another as a high screen in front of him. this is primarily to exploit the penalty kill by starting at the top pivot and being able to work each of the players positioned on the halfwall, which is where you position your shooters. the two screens up the middle then become functional because as the defense extends out to defend the shooter near the dot once he gains possession, one killer will likely abandon either the high screen or the low screen and provide an opportunity to pass through the box. if they don't, they've likely abandoned the other player on the halfwall. if you can get to him through the box you can try it but it's risky. the best option is to quickly bump back out to the pivot on the point and have him whip a pass over for a one timer to the player that has collapsed down a little once the puck went to the opposite flank. the thing about our powerplay using the 1-3-1 is that we had shooters playing that top pivot. dougie and faulk are both shooters and are better suited to play one of those one-timing positions on the halfwall. especially dougie due to his wrist shot. we didn't have that top pivot that was used to seeing the ice from back there. i think we tried teuvo back there briefly but it just wasn't a fit. what gardiner does is give us a player that can play that top pivot and make hard and flat passes to those one timing options and won't have analysis paralysis that faulk had due to being accustomed to being the shooter. there were a lot of times last year where he tried to shoot through two levels of a screen in that structure and it's just not a great idea unless it's really there. this article shows in detail what tampa did with this formation to rip the league apart:

How the 1-3-1 Power Play Works

last year for the leafs, they used morgan rielly in that spot on the first unit and it really impacted gardiner's productivity on the powerplay. it was more of a deployment issue due to rielly just being transcendent in that spot. he's one of the absolute best in the league there and gardiner was left a diminished role. in attempting to fix the powerplay, i think we rightly identified that faulk is inadequate for the ask and as a result we needed to find our top pivot to make that unit work. gardiner will likely not be elite there, but he'll be more than adequate. i think our drafting and signings have reflected the need for an elite player there (honka, fensore, priskie), but that's tomorrow's problem. we solved today's problem here with a good but not elite option to distribute to guys like aho and svechnikov on those flanks.

 

[AD Skinner]

Great post vagrant. I think what excites me the most about this signing in particular (and really the whole offseason) is that issues were identified and moved were made to address them. What killed us in the boston series, as I remember it anyway, was such a lack of pp that emboldened the bruins to take any liberty they wanted. That and their bottom six guys were outscoring ours- until game 4 we were doing a pretty good job of keeping Bergeron and Marchand contained but the rest of the team was still getting it done. Gardiner should help with the first issue and haula/dzingle should address the second

 

[behemolari]

I honestly believe Gardiner gaffes had nothing to do with his skills, it's just Toronto and karma. Kadri and Gardiner will be fine with their new environment

 

[DougieSmash]

I hope we doesn't move Hamilton. He becomes underrated lately.

 

[Lempo]

I honestly believe Gardiner gaffes had nothing to do with his skills, it's just Toronto and karma. Kadri and Gardiner will be fine with their new environment

Let's hope that karma doesn't object Gardiner's obvious gaming it by choosing the most likely team so that he'd become this season's cup-winning Toronto-reject.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The Canes rely on good skating defensemen who can transition from defense to offense quickly and can move the puck up the ice quickly. In that regard, Gardiner should fit like a glove. He’s the best skater and passer among Canes D and IMO, it’s not that close.

I know he has his warts, but if he can also help the PP, this will be a very good signing.

I’m still a little concerned about the PK if they move Faulk out, particularly with CDH gone, but I think they can figure that out.

 

[Joe McGrath]

The Canes rely on good skating defensemen who can transition from defense to offense quickly and can move the puck up the ice quickly. In that regard, Gardiner should fit like a glove. He’s the best skater and passer among Canes D and IMO, it’s not that close.

I know he has his warts, but if he can also help the PP, this will be a very good signing.

I’m still a little concerned about the PK if they move Faulk out, particularly with CDH gone, but I think they can figure that out.

I have to wonder if the PK plan is to play Slavin and Pesce for like 1:45 now that neither need to ever be on the Powerplay.

 

[Wolfpuck]

Pesce at 80 overall

 

[emptyNedder]

and you can make another that TvR belongs in the top four of an NHL team

And remember, TvR is a highly-underrated analytics darling making $2.3 million,

I half-jokingly mentioned the analytics angle yesterday. What if adding Gardiner is based on Tulsky having other models that agree with WAR. In that model TVR was #26 in the league the past three seasons—that makes him a top-pairing D-man (I think the WAR model in some way accounts for quality of competition/teammates).
It sounds crazy, but Slavin/Pesce and Gardiner/TVR is both the best top 4 on the Canes and by far the best in the league based on WAR.
Moving both Faulk and Hamilton would bring a decent return and/or open more than enough $ for Laine (or Marner or Point if it comes to that).

 

[SvechneJerk]

I half-jokingly mentioned the analytics angle yesterday. What if adding Gardiner is based on Tulsky having other models that agree with WAR. In that model TVR was #26 in the league the past three seasons—that makes him a top-pairing D-man (I think the WAR model in some way accounts for quality of competition/teammates).
It sounds crazy, but Slavin/Pesce and Gardiner/TVR is both the best top 4 on the Canes and by far the best in the league based on WAR.
Moving both Faulk and Hamilton would bring a decent return and/or open more than enough $ for Laine (or Marner or Point if it comes to that).

Do you have a link to the WAR model? I’m having a hard time locating it, for whatever reason.

Thanks!

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Again, the Canes are still in a position of luxury when it comes to trading Faulk. They can fit ALL of their key pieces, including Haydn Fleury, and still be under the cap because of Gardiner's bargain cap hit. Also, with the only good defenseman available on the UFA market gone, Faulk's asking price in a trade now goes way up. I could now see a team give up a high 2nd or a late 1st for him, particularly since the Canes don't have to trade him. Before the Canes swooped up Gardiner, other teams theoretically could've used him as leverage to lower the trade return. Instead, the Canes now have the best defenseman on the trade market.

 

[Lempo]

Do you have a link to the WAR model? I’m having a hard time locating it, for whatever reason.

Thanks!

I can only find one with barter.

Sorry.

(no, really: sorry)

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Took a day to think this over, read up a bit to confirm some of my thoughts, and I think Steve Dangle probably put it best:

"Jake Gardiner is broccoli. Broccoli is definitively good for you. It's a good source of fiber, various vitamins and surprisingly protein. It can also occasionally leave some people with a bad taste in their mouth and sick to their stomach. And those are valid criticisms of broccoli. But the good of broccoli still far outweighs the bad."

He's going to be a good player for us, but I get the feeling he's also going to be a major whipping boy on more than one occasion.

 

[Chrispy]

Took a day to think this over, read up a bit to confirm some of my thoughts, and I think Steve Dangle probably put it best:

"Jake Gardiner is broccoli. Broccoli is definitively good for you. It's a good source of fiber, various vitamins and surprisingly protein. It can also occasionally leave some people with a bad taste in their mouth and sick to their stomach. And those are valid criticisms of broccoli. But the good of broccoli still far outweighs the bad."

He's going to be a good player for us, but I get the feeling he's also going to be a major whipping boy on more than one occasion.

Great skater, tries stretch passes, looks effortless out there, tries to pass on the PP rather than shoot?

Yeah, he's replacing Dougie as the Joni Pitkanen fan target.

 

[MinJaBen]

Maybe... maybe the Canes fan base had done something to annoy Buffalo.

This is obviously the correct answer.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I'm not buying it!!!


Sorry I've just been wanting to say that.