Confirmed with Link: Canes re-sign Slavin 51.69M/8 years

[LakeLivin]

[if accurate]

While Slavin gave the Canes a discount compared to what he could have gotten on the open market, I think the term makes the dollar value seem like more of a steal than it is. You look at it and think "Slavin is worth way more than $6.5m per year", and right now he certainly is. But signing him through the age of 39 does merit a reduction in AAV.

Trying to get a feel for how term might affect the AAV, I considered the following examples:

8 x $6.5 = $52m
6 x $8.5 = $51m

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

[if accurate]

While Slavin gave the Canes a discount compared to what he could have gotten on the open market, I think the term makes the dollar value seem like more of a steal than it is. You look at it and think "Slavin is worth way more than $6.5m per year", and right now he certainly is. But signing him through the age of 39 does merit a reduction in AAV.

Trying to get a feel for how term might affect the AAV, I considered the following examples:

8 x $6.5 = $52m
6 x $8.5 = $51m

If the Canes are successfully able to develop more young defensive pieces on top of Nikishin and potentially Morrow within the 8 year timespan, then giving Slavin the 8th year will be a win for the team overall as it lowers the cap hit of his most productive years.

 

[Svechhammer]

[if accurate]

While Slavin gave the Canes a discount compared to what he could have gotten on the open market, I think the term makes the dollar value seem like more of a steal than it is. You look at it and think "Slavin is worth way more than $6.5m per year", and right now he certainly is. But signing him through the age of 39 does merit a reduction in AAV.

Trying to get a feel for how term might affect the AAV, I considered the following examples:

8 x $6.5 = $52m
6 x $8.5 = $51m

In 2015-16 (9 years ago) the salary cap was $71.4m
Next year, the cap will be $88m

That is an overall increase of $16.6m, or 24% from 2015.

If you assume the same 24% increase over the duration of Slavin's contract, we would have a salary cap of around $109m when his contract is up.

Of course, because that 24% also includes multiple years of a cap freeze because of a once in a century pandemic, it's safe to assume the cap should rise higher than that.

In year 1 Slavin would make over 7% of the cap
Under the assumed increase, be would make slightly less than 6%, or the equivalent of a $5.1m contract now.
In reality it might be more like 5.5%, or the equivalent of a $4.8m contract.
(Also keep in mind that's based off next year's cap, if you do the comparison vs this past season, it's $4.9m and $4.6m, respectively)

Pretty much any way you cut it, this would be a fantastic team friendly deal for the Canes.

 

[Derailed75]

[if accurate]

While Slavin gave the Canes a discount compared to what he could have gotten on the open market, I think the term makes the dollar value seem like more of a steal than it is. You look at it and think "Slavin is worth way more than $6.5m per year", and right now he certainly is. But signing him through the age of 39 does merit a reduction in AAV.

Trying to get a feel for how term might affect the AAV, I considered the following examples:

8 x $6.5 = $52m
6 x $8.5 = $51m

The cap in years 6-8 will be much higher making what he makes less of an issue

 

[Stickpucker]

Tom Dundon so cheap he couldn't even pay Slavin 1st pair money.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

In 2015-16 (9 years ago) the salary cap was $71.4m
Next year, the cap will be $88m

That is an overall increase of $16.6m, or 24% from 2015.

If you assume the same 24% increase over the duration of Slavin's contract, we would have a salary cap of around $109m when his contract is up.

Of course, because that 24% also includes multiple years of a cap freeze because of a once in a century pandemic, it's safe to assume the cap should rise higher than that.

In year 1 Slavin would make over 7% of the cap
Under the assumed increase, be would make slightly less than 6%, or the equivalent of a $5.1m contract now.
In reality it might be more like 5.5%, or the equivalent of a $4.8m contract.
(Also keep in mind that's based off next year's cap, if you do the comparison vs this past season, it's $4.9m and $4.6m, respectively)

Pretty much any way you cut it, this would be a fantastic team friendly deal for the Canes.

Feeling a bit optimistic, are we?

 

[htdoc]

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t….

Concerned posts that we aren’t like other teams that give the long term deal to older players and let them walk instead…. Then when we do give it to select people that we think are worth the risk and want to enjoy the good years now until the supposed drop off, then there is concerned posts or worry about the deal not being worth it…



Wesley cost a fortune early in his canes career and never really lived up to giving up so many first round picks as he wasn’t really an offensive stud…. But man could he play defense…. Loved loved loved to watch how effortless it all seemed…. Blink and you miss a game where nothing stood out as being high danger or chaotic or anything other than super routine and you look at the stat sheet and he was a plus player again that night having given up nothing while he was on the ice…

 

[Svechhammer]

Feeling a bit optimistic, are we?

Ehh, I've long been a proponent of not being scared of long term deals because the cap hit by the end is rarely as bad as people make it sound like it will be. That Jordo contract was discussed as something that would completely wreck the franchise by the time we got to the final years because it would be taking up too much of the cap for what he was going to be, and in the end we were able to make it work without issue.

Slavin at 8 years of $6.5m aav is a deal you make every chance you can because he's elite at what he does, and you're getting him at, frankly, a ridiculous bargain for the first 3 or 4 years and offsetting that by extending the contract, but even then its still team friendly because history shows the cap rises with inflation and we should expect the cap hit to be significantly lower at the end of the contract than at the beginning, even with the aav remaining the same.

The only way this doesn't work out is if his play takes a complete nose-dive, but at that point we'd be in a lot of trouble anyway because he's probably the single most important piece to our franchise right now in being able to play the style we want to play. But even then, the savings that he's giving us with his deal is going to make keeping someone like Nikishin around that much easier, which probably helps offset that risk.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Ehh, I've long been a proponent of not being scared of long term deals because the cap hit by the end is rarely as bad as people make it sound like it will be. That Jordo contract was discussed as something that would completely wreck the franchise by the time we got to the final years because it would be taking up too much of the cap for what he was going to be, and in the end we were able to make it work without issue.

Slavin at 8 years of $6.5m aav is a deal you make every chance you can because he's elite at what he does, and you're getting him at, frankly, a ridiculous bargain for the first 3 or 4 years and offsetting that by extending the contract, but even then its still team friendly because history shows the cap rises with inflation and we should expect the cap hit to be significantly lower at the end of the contract than at the beginning, even with the aav remaining the same.

The only way this doesn't work out is if his play takes a complete nose-dive, but at that point we'd be in a lot of trouble anyway because he's probably the single most important piece to our franchise right now in being able to play the style we want to play. But even then, the savings that he's giving us with his deal is going to make keeping someone like Nikishin around that much easier, which probably helps offset that risk.

(Look at the part I bolded in my first quote.)

 

[Svechhammer]

(Look at the part I bolded in my first quote.)

Oh ffs I missed that. Ugh, bolding white text on a dark background never seems to be obvious enough for me.

 

[LakeLivin]

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t….

Concerned posts that we aren’t like other teams that give the long term deal to older players and let them walk instead…. Then when we do give it to select people that we think are worth the risk and want to enjoy the good years now until the supposed drop off, then there is concerned posts or worry about the deal not being worth it…



Wesley cost a fortune early in his canes career and never really lived up to giving up so many first round picks as he wasn’t really an offensive stud…. But man could he play defense…. Loved loved loved to watch how effortless it all seemed…. Blink and you miss a game where nothing stood out as being high danger or chaotic or anything other than super routine and you look at the stat sheet and he was a plus player again that night having given up nothing while he was on the ice…

I'm not seeing that much angst about the length of the contract, at least here on HF26. A couple people pointed out the potential downside at the end, but don't recall anyone who was vociferously against the signing.

Seems like some may have interpreted my post as being negative when I mentioned that the term almost certainly lowered the AAV, to the point that a $6.5 AAV for Slavin looks ridiculously low. I was just pointing out that when mapped against Slavin's age, and considering that his play will almost certainly decline, it isn't as ridiculous as it might appear on the surface.

Let me be specific, since some seem to have missed especially the first point below in my previous post:

1. I still think Slavin gave us a home team discount compared to what he could have gotten on the open market.
2. When I say his play will decline over the course of the contract I'm not saying it will fall off a cliff or that he won't necessarily be able to perform at a reasonable level, even at the end when he's 37 and 38 yo. The point is that no one knows how his play will age, and it's the need to factor in that uncertainty (on both sides) that makes a contract like this one tough to gauge.
3. Yes, I understand that the cap will be increasing over the life of this contract. I'm sure both the Borg and Slavin superimposed that on their calculus of how his play will realistically hold up into his mid-to-late thirties.

Here's one hypothetical breakdown of an 8 year, $52m Slavin contract broken out by age:

31 - $9m
32 - $9m
33 - $8m
34 - $8m
35 - $6m
36 - $5m
37 - $4m
38 - $3m

My original point was that while a $6.5 AAV Slavin contract seems ridiculously cheap, when mapped out against his age it doesn't seem nearly as outlandish, at least to me. [Saying that, I'd urge some here to re-read my point 1 above when considering my take]

 

[bleedgreen]

I think I probably had the most negative post and it only said I was torn about whether or not I would personally give the deal. I’m fine with the team doing it. I don’t share the blind optimism that Slavin is the one who plays great into his late 30’s though I agree he plays a style that helps him maybe get there. I don’t think it has as much to do with Slavin’s game as others are saying. Genetics and luck are usually the thing with guys growing old. He can be the best poke checker in the game, if he loses his legs it won’t matter. I also don’t think he gave a discount. We’re paying him till he’s 39 when it’s generally assumed he’s not going to be what he is at that point. If he signed a five year deal I’m sure the AAV would be what people thought he might sign for. I don’t think any other team would’ve given him much more over 7 years. We were in position to get him to sign before he hit the market and to make it happen we gave in and gave him 8 years, he gave in on his side and let the AAV be a bit lower because it’s over those 8 years. He might’ve gotten 7 or 7.5 over seven, but I’d be surprised if teams would do even that. Defensive defenseman who don’t put up numbers don’t really get that much, even if they’re studs at it.

I think we’d pay him more to stay than others would pay him to leave.

I don’t think there’s any irony in me feeling this way since I’m one that questions the others leaving. Dougie is a rd who puts up pts and plays well on the pp. It’s tough to get those guys and we’re still looking long term there even now. Tro was a righty 2C who was great two ways, great on draws and fit the team, he’s very hard to replace and we still are looking now. Of course it would be hard to find another defensive defenseman that’s as good as Slavin but it would not be hard to find a defensive type who’s lefty.
We have an owner who thinks you can always buy more defense. Slavin is also a year or two older than those two when they left.

That’s why I’m a little surprised. Im not against this at all. If it was my choice I would’ve been conflicted. I’ve think we’ve seen the best Slavin has and even though it’s tough to let guys go this is a position I think we could replace if we had to. I’m glad we’re not though. I love the guy.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

8 x 6.43 per seravali. We’ll need to wait for confirmation because its seravalli

 

[Chrispy]

8 x 6.43 per seravali. We’ll need to wait for confirmation because its seravalli

Would be an amazing deal if true. Yes Slavin will be old at the end but that’s great value up front.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Reminder that Pesce is likely going to get a similar AAV from the Devils today.

So yeah, Slavin allowing us to sign him to this deal is real king ****.

 

[chaz4hockey]

I think I probably had the most negative post and it only said I was torn about whether or not I would personally give the deal. I’m fine with the team doing it. I don’t share the blind optimism that Slavin is the one who plays great into his late 30’s though I agree he plays a style that helps him maybe get there. I don’t think it has as much to do with Slavin’s game as others are saying. Genetics and luck are usually the thing with guys growing old. He can be the best poke checker in the game, if he loses his legs it won’t matter. I also don’t think he gave a discount. We’re paying him till he’s 39 when it’s generally assumed he’s not going to be what he is at that point. If he signed a five year deal I’m sure the AAV would be what people thought he might sign for. I don’t think any other team would’ve given him much more over 7 years. We were in position to get him to sign before he hit the market and to make it happen we gave in and gave him 8 years, he gave in on his side and let the AAV be a bit lower because it’s over those 8 years. He might’ve gotten 7 or 7.5 over seven, but I’d be surprised if teams would do even that. Defensive defenseman who don’t put up numbers don’t really get that much, even if they’re studs at it.

I think we’d pay him more to stay than others would pay him to leave.

I don’t think there’s any irony in me feeling this way since I’m one that questions the others leaving. Dougie is a rd who puts up pts and plays well on the pp. It’s tough to get those guys and we’re still looking long term there even now. Tro was a righty 2C who was great two ways, great on draws and fit the team, he’s very hard to replace and we still are looking now. Of course it would be hard to find another defensive defenseman that’s as good as Slavin but it would not be hard to find a defensive type who’s lefty.
We have an owner who thinks you can always buy more defense. Slavin is also a year or two older than those two when they left.

That’s why I’m a little surprised. Im not against this at all. If it was my choice I would’ve been conflicted. I’ve think we’ve seen the best Slavin has and even though it’s tough to let guys go this is a position I think we could replace if we had to. I’m glad we’re not though. I love the guy.

good post....I thought Slavin although still superb, was off versus the year before.

Decline, after effects of big hit who knows but something to watch.

 

[DaveG]

Canes Ink Slavin To Eight-Year Extension | Carolina Hurricanes

Alternate captain and two-time Lady Byng Trophy winner signs through 2032-33

www.nhl.com

51.69/8 - 6,461,250 per... weird total

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

FRAK YEAH!!! Let’s Go!

 

[stevewin]

.69 - nice

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Unreal to get him for cheaper than Skjei.

 

[CandyCanes]

.69 - nice

Slavin is a naughty Christian, negotiating that final number

 

[HisIceness]

Going to be weird without his buddy Pesce here anymore, but happy to have Jaccob back.

 

[CandyCanes]

Cool to think he’s likely a Cane for life and probably gets his number retired here in Carolina.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I'm ecstatic at this. Slavin is my favorite hockey player of all time. Absolute stud. I will be watching hockey games decades from now with my (now 8 month old) son explaining to him how he missed watching the greatest defensive defenseman of all time. He may ask "what about Lidstrom or Eddie Shore" and I will say "no no no Slavin was much better." If I get into this conversation every game he will stop arguing with me about it.

In all seriousness, I am convinced we'll never see another player quite like Jaccob Slavin. He is the best defender in the world, in the truest sense of the word.

 

[WreckingCrew]

One of the best Canes period! Good to have him locked up probably for his career. Very team friendly while giving him long term stability and overall money. He'll be a steal of a contract for at least a couple of years, and even if his play starts to tail off the back half, by then this will probably look fairly cheap compared to cap increases.