Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

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There's no need to resort to whataboutism here. This is a hypothetical, it's not trying to say we shouldn't draft Michkov. I just want to know where the line is.

Personally if he tells me he signed an extension in the KHL and isn't coming over for 5 years, I'm not taking him. I don't care how good he is, too much risk.

Michkov has already stated his dream is to play in the NHL. Why would he sign an extention? The two extra years is just more scaremongering in the draft driven information war going on. I'm pretty sure it's a nothing burger.
 
Habs trade Gallagher and Armia and they'll be so ecstatic they'll completely forget they have to go on the stage to make their selection, so their clock runs out and they end up forfeiting the pick.
Would they in fact forfeit the pick, or would it just continue to slide until they made the pick?

This actually happened to the Minnesota Vikings in the 2003 NFL Draft. They missed their slot at #7 overall in the first round, and the next two teams made mad dashes to the podium to get their picks in, instead of waiting for their entire time allotment as they usually do. The Vikings ended up selecting at #9 instead of #7.

It certainly is one way to speed up the first round of the draft.

How the Vikings' Missed First-Round Pick in 2003 NFL Draft Turned Into Future Ravens Hall of Famer
 
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If I'm reading correctly the first broadcast is today at 11:30 on TSN 4.

You read it correctly. It will be live on TSN4 at 11:30AM ET.

The replay will be on TSN 1 & 3 at 7:30PM ET.

Would they in fact forfeit the pick, or would it just continue to slide until they made the pick?

This actually happened to the Minnesota Vikings in the 2003 NFL Draft. They missed their slot at #7 overall in the first round, and the next two teams made mad dashes to the podium to get their picks in, instead of waiting for their entire time allotment as they usually do. The Vikings ended up selecting at #9 instead of #7.

It certainly is one way to speed up the first round of the draft.

How the Vikings' Missed First-Round Pick in 2003 NFL Draft Turned Into Future Ravens Hall of Famer

I don't know if that's what really happens. I only made that scenario up to say how happy they'd be they moved both Gallagher and Armia that they forget about the draft. But interesting the way the NFL did it, where they don't forfeit the pick entirely, but end up sliding back as a result.
 
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I think another factor is that they won't have much control on his development. He won't be coming over for development camps or any other camp. They'll pretty much be watching him from afar.

Whereas, anyone else they pick, they will have a more direct contact throughout their development. Whether it's someone they take out of Junior or College or even in Europe aside from the KHL. They'll be able to go see them, meet with them and communicate with them and their respective teams a lot more regularly.

So it could be a case of waiting 3 years for a player to come over vs. waiting 3 years for a player but they have constant communication and direct contact with throughout.

It's not to say Michkov should not be the selection. I'd be real happy if he is. But I believe that is also a factor.

I think 3 years of this is ok, but it's the absolute maximum. Extending beyond that is way too risky, I just don't see how it works out.

Michkov has already stated his dream is to play in the NHL. Why would he sign an extention? The two extra years is just more scaremongering in the draft driven information war going on. I'm pretty sure it's a nothing burger.

It's f***ing crazy to me that nobody is willing to answer a hypothetical question.
 
I don't know if that's what really happens. I only made that scenario up to say how happy they'd be they moved both Gallagher and Armia that they forget about the draft. But interesting the way the NFL did it, where they don't forfeit the pick entirely, but end up sliding back as a result.
Of course, I knew you were joking. I am just curious how the NHL would handle such a situation, after seeing it occur 20 years ago in the NFL.

BTW, one of my best friends is a huge Vikings fan. We still give him crap over the missed draft pick. :laugh:
 
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Bobby Mac’s tweet strongly implies Michkov will be in the top10 of his list. Taking Mackenzie as bible, is therefore no reason to not draft him at 5. QED


Michkov is a much better playmaker while being as good of a shooter and Michkov’s prospect profile is superior to Caufield’s prospect profile (at the time of his draft). They are two different tier’s of prospect.

I've heard various ways Michkov has been compared to Caufield.

One is: Michkov is like Cole Caufield on steroids.

No two players are the same. Comparables usually highlight certain aspects of a player's game that are similar to another player.
 
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You're losing it, take a breather.
I ask a hypothetical and everyone bends over backwards to avoid answering. They bring up Caufield, they bring up space-time continuum, it's worse than listening to politicians ducking questions left and right. Like they physically can't even bring themselves to entertain the notion of not taking Michkov. They get so offended at any criticism of the guy. If you ask me, that's losing it. Borderline cult-like behaviour.

Kaprizov took 5 years to come to the NHL, where does he go now in a 2015 redraft?
Are you saying yes then?
 
I think 3 years of this is ok, but it's the absolute maximum. Extending beyond that is way too risky, I just don't see how it works out.



It's f***ing crazy to me that nobody is willing to answer a hypothetical question.
Because it's pointless and frankly, ridiculous. I can find you dealbreaking hypotheticals for everyone of them, including Bedard.
 
I think 3 years of this is ok, but it's the absolute maximum. Extending beyond that is way too risky, I just don't see how it works out.



It's f***ing crazy to me that nobody is willing to answer a hypothetical question.

Why did he sign the long term deal in the first place if his goal was to play in North America? Anyone would know that a contract taking him 3 years passed his draft year was going to be a problem for teams wanting to draft him.

And now that you're beholden to that KHL team to play you and develop you, they can easily start using your ice time as a weapon against you to extend longer.
 
Michkov is a much better playmaker while being as good of a shooter and Michkov’s prospect profile is superior to Caufield’s prospect profile (at the time of his draft). They are two different tier’s of prospect.
Michkov's playmaking has some weaknesses too. Like Caufield, he often misses the obvious passing option. Caufield's game has consistently grown since his draft year. Many reports on Michkov is that parts of his game have stagnated including his skating.

One thing your arguments never seem to consider is that high end talent evaluators can also assess the likelihood of one's game growing/developing. You dwell on simple numbers that kids put up at 16 and 17 with very little context and without ever mentioning the role that mechanics, physiology, hockey IQ and associated advantages or limitations have on their likelihood to perform at higher levels...ultimately the NHL in playoffs.

This could be why every year you have high affinity for the big name draft candidates who were huge phenoms at 16 like Wright and Michkov. Someone like Bader likely never played high level sports as a kid or been around high level hockey as an adult which means he has never witnessed the monumental changes in the pecking orders every year when kids are in their teens. Someone like Kent Hughes who is very smart and played at high levels as a kid -- played college, has been recruiting prospects as a player agent for 20+ years, coached elite level youth hockey, has kids who have made it all the way to NCAA, one drafted by the NHL-- is a terrific person to understand these evolutions and be one of the leaders and coordinators of our evaluation process. He has seen several evolutionary cycles of the long-term hockey development process. Furthermore, he's known as an around the clock workaholic.

I have seen statements from NHL scouts who are super high on Michkov's potential and others who are lukewarm on it at the NHL level. We'll see what happens. It's narrow minded however to completely dismiss the detractors just as it is for the detractors to dismiss the kid's talent level and accolades. We haven't even dipped into the Russian factor.
 
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Kaprizov took 5 years to come to the NHL, where does he go now in a 2015 redraft?

I'll preface this by saying that I'd be all for taking Michkov.

However, Kaprizov was a 5th round pick, which isn't as big an investment as a 5th overall pick. And even then, Minnesota were close to losing patience with the situation because he extended an extra 2 years. They were contemplating trading his rights at some point.

If Michkov does the same thing, he would be here in 2028. It could coincide with the consistent competitive window the Canadiens are trying to build to. But anyone else they select could be there by 2025 (possibly a year earlier if they do a year of college or Europe and then come here).
 
There's no need to resort to whataboutism here. This is a hypothetical, it's not trying to say we shouldn't draft Michkov. I just want to know where the line is.

Personally if he tells me he signed an extension in the KHL and isn't coming over for 5 years, I'm not taking him. I don't care how good he is, too much risk.
Also, HuGo could be long gone in 5 years if they don't have any playoff success by then.
 
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Where would you take Kaprizov in a 2015 redraft?
Tough one, there are a lot of good players from that draft. With the benefit of hindsight, I take him after McDavid, Rantanen, Marner, and Connor for sure. Then it becomes difficult with Aho and Eichel. I take Kaprizov over those two today, but they both have already put up nearly 500 points in the NHL so they've given a lot to their teams already.
 
Tough one, there are a lot of good players from that draft. With the benefit of hindsight, I take him after McDavid, Rantanen, Marner, and Connor for sure. Then it becomes difficult with Aho and Eichel. I take Kaprizov over those two today, but they both have already put up nearly 500 points in the NHL so they've given a lot to their teams already.
I'd take Kaprizov over Connor, but not over Eichel.
 
I haven’t scouted the prospects enough, but if Michkov is as talented or more talented than Kaprizov they should take him even if they have to wait.

Where would you take Kaprizov in a 2015 redraft?
Well...two Minnesota Wild GMs have been fired since they selected Kaprizov in the 5th round so as a hired GM I would certainly have to give serious thought to using a top 5 pick on him knowing I'm out of a job if the team doesn't have playoff success in the next 5 years.

A lot of things would have to go right for Michkov to become as good as Kaprizov. Kaprizov is also over 200 lbs. He's more of a tank than Crosby.
 
I think another factor is that they won't have much control on his development. He won't be coming over for development camps or any other camp. They'll pretty much be watching him from afar.

Whereas, anyone else they pick, they will have a more direct contact throughout their development. Whether it's someone they take out of Junior or College or even in Europe aside from the KHL. They'll be able to go see them, meet with them and communicate with them and their respective teams a lot more regularly.

So it could be a case of waiting 3 years for a player to come over vs. waiting 3 years for a player but they have constant communication and direct contact with throughout.

It's not to say Michkov should not be the selection. I'd be real happy if he is. But I believe that is also a factor.

It goes even more further than that.

Let's say their Top 5 pick got injured bad.....Team step in, provide the best doctors, send their own people to fix him and help him out, they probably won't be able to do that for him. It's all little things like that added to one another that add to the risk level.

Michkov has already stated his dream is to play in the NHL. Why would he sign an extention? The two extra years is just more scaremongering in the draft driven information war going on. I'm pretty sure it's a nothing burger.

Why would he sign that contract if his dream was to play in the NHL to begin with?
Could be playing next year but instead he prefered to stay 3.5 more years in Russia
Make it make sense.

What scaremongering is that he did something no other players has done.
1st time in history

Kaprizov took 5 years to come to the NHL, where does he go now in a 2015 redraft?
Kaprizov was a 5th round pick who was not even AHL ready.
Mitchkov is a 5th overall pick who's NHLready.
 
Michkov's playmaking has some weaknesses too. Like Caufield, he often misses the obvious passing option. Caufield's game has consistently grown since his draft year. Many reports on Michkov is that parts of his game have stagnated including his skating.

One thing your arguments never seem to consider is that high end talent evaluators can also assess the likelihood of one's game growing/developing. You dwell on simple numbers that kids put up at 16 and 17 with very little context and without ever mentioning the role that mechanics, physiology, hockey IQ and associated advantages or limitations have on their likelihood to perform at higher levels...ultimately the NHL in playoffs.

This could be why every year you have high affinity for the big name draft candidates who were huge phenoms at 16 like Wright and Michkov. Someone like Bader likely never played high level sports as a kid or been around high level hockey as an adult which means he has never witnessed the monumental changes in the pecking orders every year when kids are in their teens. Someone like Kent Hughes who is very smart and played at high levels as a kid -- played college, has been recruiting prospects as a player agent for 20+ years, coached elite level youth hockey, has kids who have made it all the way to NCAA, one drafted by the NHL-- is a terrific person to understand these evolutions and be one of the leaders and coordinators of our evaluation process. He has seen several evolutionary cycles of the long-term hockey development process. Furthermore, he's known as an around the clock workaholic.

I have seen statements from NHL scouts who are super high on Michkov's potential and others who are lukewarm on it at the NHL level. We'll see what happens. It's narrow minded however to completely dismiss the detractors just as it is for the detractors to dismiss the kid's talent level and accolades. We haven't even dipped into the Russian factor.
Okay, let's unpack this quickly and without speaking in circles.

1) Your bent against Bader is irrational because you're not also acknowledging the indisputable fact that everyone involved in scouting is imprecise to a degree. I don't even follow Bader or agree with this formula but he's one of many who is trying to quantify something that has been thus far unquantifiable -- it should be challenged to be improved, not challenged to be dismissed.

2) Hughes will make mistakes if he hasn't made mistakes already, his fluffed up bio is irrelevant. Timmins and Begevin had even more intimate relationship with hockey and they made many mistakes.

3) Every prospect has flaws and downsides and weaknesses. They're teenagers after all. To magnify a prospect's weaknesses without contextualizing it is to follow the wrong path of analysis. You're welcome to do so as you wish, I disagree.

4) As for me, personally, Wright's flaws and prospect profile (as of 2022 Draft) was MORE attractive to me than Slafkovsky's flaws and prospect profile. The things I rate in a prospect, the rubric by which I (personally) evaluate them, is heavily stats and QoC based and takes into account the context in which they played. I never said I'm without question right but I try to argue even-handedly in favour of my preferred prospects -- in the 2023 draft's case, for the Habs at 5OA I rate Smith and Benson more than Leonard, Dvorsky, and Reinbacher and Michkov more than all of them. It is my interpretation of their prospect profiles, warts and all. Seems like I'm not really saying anything controversial here.
 
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