Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[CHfan1]

Chris Johnston says sources around the NHL believe Michkov will go anywhere from 5th overall to 8th overall.

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[GlassesJacketShirt]

Chris Johnston says sources around the NHL believe Michkov will go anywhere from 5th overall to 8th overall.

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So he suggests San Jose is a no go.......well then, Washington it is.

 

[sheed36]

View attachment 719582 View attachment 719584


...don't worry, amigo; your secret is safe with us...

That first GIF is what I used on my old Cowon D2 media player from a few years ago for when it started up. I still have that old Cowon D2 player and that GIF is still the startup screen.

 

[Kennerback]

@Kennerback

Hello sir, i would like to answer your post about 1-5 to hit and 6-10 to bust and the three players. I cant answer in the draft thread so i write to you here.

I do agree with your point but there is a flaw here that needs to be assessed.

In your analysis, you assume player 1-5 are Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith and Michkov while the rest are the players 6-10. Therefore you conclude that there is a way better hit rate if we pick one of those 5 and that picking Dvorsky, Leonard or Reinbacher based on this data would be a mistake.

The thing is, these player are not the surefire top 5. Public list and team list are two things. And to conclude to the data you point on, the player has to be drafted to be assigned a rank. It means nothing from a player profile pre-draft. Its simply all about the hit rate about each giving pick.

Therefore, it says nothing about the potential hit-rate of Dvorsky versus Smith for example. And Dvorsky Leonard and Reinbacher are not the 6-10 players until they are. Just like Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith and Michkov are not the 1-5 until they are.

Smith is almost universally seen as superior to the (soon to be) 6-to-10s which need to work through flaws to meet their upside. So much so that there’s a decent chance he goes @3. Some posters on this board disagree, but there’s a broad consensus in the hockey world.

The funny thing this season is that the likely 2BPA may be drafted only at 8 by the Caps for non-hockey reasons. He’s a bona fide 1-5 who would go 1OA in other years. To me the 6-10s would have been competing directly with the 6-10s of last year. They’re nothing special compared to other years and I would have taken Jiricek who was 6OA in a nano second ahead of any of these players.

 

[Heffyhoof]

There will be a lot of revisionist history if the Habs do draft Michkov and he turns out to be a total bust. Today it's "Michkov is a can't miss future superstar, I have zero doubt." Tomorrow?

"Oh they should have seen it coming, everyone knew he refuses to play defense. The attitude issues were there from the start. Why do we always insist on drafting small guys who don't have the size to play in today's NHL? His skating issues were known at the draft..."

Cool story bro.

 

[DAChampion]

There will be a lot of revisionist history if the Habs do draft Michkov and he turns out to be a total bust. Today it's "Michkov is a can't miss future superstar, I have zero doubt." Tomorrow?

"Oh they should have seen it coming, everyone knew he refuses to play defense. The attitude issues were there from the start. Why do we always insist on drafting small guys who don't have the size to play in today's NHL? His skating issues were known at the draft..."

Yes, predictable.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

There will be a lot of revisionist history if the Habs do draft Michkov and he turns out to be a total bust. Today it's "Michkov is a can't miss future superstar, I have zero doubt." Tomorrow?

"Oh they should have seen it coming, everyone knew he refuses to play defense. The attitude issues were there from the start. Why do we always insist on drafting small guys who don't have the size to play in today's NHL? His skating issues were known at the draft..."

Could say the same thing if they let go Michkov and gets another player and Michkov turns out to drop 80-100 points in the nhl

same for Slaf.

You can do it with any players , idk what's ur point

Feel like some of you are already trying to cope at the fact we are gonna fail at picking the superstar and most obvious choice.

 

[Kennerback]

To follow my post about the failure rate of player from 6-10 is much higher than 1-5 and when they succeed it’s usually much less than the 1-5. If I take a possible 6-10 (removing Michkov because he’s a special case): Benson, Dvorsky, Leonard, Rheinbacher and say, Moore. Odds are two of those players will bust completely and be unknown in 10 years. Here’s a choice morsel of 6-10s from 2006-2016:

Zach Hamill, Haydn Fleury, Tyson Jost, Jared Cowen, Derick Pouliot
Keaton Ellerby, Scott Glennie, Cody Hodgson, Slater Koekkoek
Dylan McIlrath, Peter Mueller, Colin Wilson, Jake Virtanen
Alexander Nylander, Alexander Burmistrov, James Shepard, Magnus Paarjavi

All these players were pimped everywhere and had their vocal supporters. They had incredible write ups and glowing player comparisons. It’s just extremely difficult to pick a Top-Forward or D At 6-10.

 

[salbutera]

There will be a lot of revisionist history if the Habs do draft Michkov and he turns out to be a total bust. Today it's "Michkov is a can't miss future superstar, I have zero doubt." Tomorrow?

"Oh they should have seen it coming, everyone knew he refuses to play defense. The attitude issues were there from the start. Why do we always insist on drafting small guys who don't have the size to play in today's NHL? His skating issues were known at the draft..."

It’ll actually start with why isn’t he getting 1st line TOI and when it’s proven he is then it’ll be they need to get rid of MSL and Adam Nicholas and bring in someone who knows how to develop players, when all else fails it’ll be, “see he shouldn’t have been playing 3-years after draft, needed some North American development time”

Phrases I do not want associated to the Habs pick :

1 - Dark horse
2 - Potentially the steal of the draft
3 - Unlimited upside if developed properly
4- Intangibles

Phrases I do want associated to the Canadiens on draft day :

1 - Can't go wrong
2 - Sure pick
3 - Home run
4 - Safe pick.

I've been Kostitsyn'd my whole life ... I'd rather get Caufield'd from now on.

Pray for Ryan Leonard then…

 

[BehindTheTimes]

How was Slaf a bigger risk? We were entering a draft partly tainted by the lack of scouting due to COVID and we were working in what was universally pegged as a weak draft crop.

Did they not take a risk on Mesar? How about Hutson? Engstrom? Where does Hutson now rank among our best prospects in the pipeline?

Respectfully, what happened in last year’s draft has little to no bearing on this year. Plus we have Bobrov as co-head of scouting — any risk they end up taking will be as well calculated as you’re going to get.

I think Bobrv sucks, but I agree. He’s privy to info we don’t have on this one. I think
Michkov Is elite, so personally, I don’t care about his attitude much. He’s an elite athlete and s teenager and might be a bit arrogant, oh my god, the horror.

 

[Rapala]

McCagg as the Habs passing on Michkov and as them taking Leonard in his mock draft and thinks it's either gonna be him or Reinbacher. He as Michkov going 6th to Arizona.

If it does play out like that then Bill Armstrong as much bigger balls than anyone in the Habs organization.

Or he doesn't have a fanbase who give a damn.

 

[Jaynki]

Smith is almost universally seen as superior to the (soon to be) 6-to-10s which need to work through flaws to meet their upside. So much so that there’s a decent chance he goes @3. Some posters on this board disagree, but there’s a broad consensus in the hockey world.

The funny thing this season is that the likely 2BPA may be drafted only at 8 by the Caps for non-hockey reasons. He’s a bona fide 1-5 who would go 1OA in other years. To me the 6-10s would have been competing directly with the 6-10s of last year. They’re nothing special compared to other years and I would have taken Jiricek who was 6OA in a nano second ahead of any of these players.

I mostly agree with what you said. I am not debating our perception of those player pre-draft.

The flaws i wanted to expose is that the hit rate of a pick 1-5 being aberantly higher than 6-10 as everything to do with the inherent spot teams are picking.

The players has to be drafted to be assigned a draft rank.

Those odds are based on drafted players, they are not based on the consensus public list players before the draft.

Therefore, the fact that Smith is perceived to be higher or better than Dvorsky dont say anything about their future or their potential "hit-rate".

 

[BehindTheTimes]

Well, it’s a little premature for that. Hughes did say that they drafted him on the basis of their projections for him 3-4 years from now. We’ll find out if he was right.


Same difference. I took a risk just like you want Hughes to take one.

I find the actions and words
Contradictory with Hughes on this one. They drafted Slaf for his contributions in 3-4 years, not now, yet had him in the bigs playing 12-13 mins a night getting rocked every few games.

If you’re projecting him to be a solid player 3-4 years from now then you don’t need to see him
Struggling all year long as an 18 year old. It was textbook rushing and pure stupidity imo.

 

[Jaynki]

I find the actions and words
Contradictory with Hughes on this one. They drafted Slaf for his contributions in 3-4 years, not now, yet had him in the bigs playing 12-13 mins a night getting rocked every few games.

If you’re projecting him to be a solid player 3-4 years from now then you don’t need to see him
Struggling all year long as an 18 year old. It was textbook rushing and pure stupidity imo.

Or they simply judged it was the best environment for him to learn the NHL beats, speed and physicality ?

 

[waffledave]

Cool story bro.

 

[Angler]

This thread should be renamed to "The 2023 Draft: Haters vs Fanboys".

There are a lot of unfounded, dumb and emotional takes from all sides here. I do really appreciate the passion though, it sure is fun to read.

 

[Sorinth]

I mostly agree with what you said. I am not debating our perception of those player pre-draft.

The flaws i wanted to expose is that the hit rate of a pick 1-5 being aberantly higher than 6-10 as everything to do with the inherent spot teams are picking.

The players has to be drafted to be assigned a draft rank.

Those odds are based on drafted players, they are not based on the consensus public list players before the draft.

Therefore, the fact that Smith is perceived to be higher or better than Dvorsky dont say anything about their future or their potential "hit-rate".

A lot of that hit rate difference is no doubt coming from picks 1 and 2 though. Every time you see a statistical analysis of draft pick value there is a very steep drop off coming after the first 2 (And a fairly significant difference even between 1 and 2).

 

[Zilo44]

This thread should be renamed to "The 2023 Draft: Haters vs Fanboys".

There are a lot of unfounded, dumb and emotional takes from all sides here. I do really appreciate the passion though, it sure is fun to read.

Michkov or no Michkov is just as intense as Wright vs Slaf last year

 

[WeThreeKings]

Michkov or no Michkov is just as intense as Wright vs Slaf last year

Wright vs Slaf vs Cooley was a way better debate last year because people stayed within the logical parameters of the debate.

The Michkov vs not Michkov debate sucks because anyone talking about alternative options to Michkov are doing so on the premise they won't take him, and the Michkov at any cost group can't have a discussion, they diminish every hypothetical as to why a team might pass and just say take Michkov.

 

[Jaynki]

Wright vs Slaf vs Cooley was a way better debate last year because people stayed within the logical parameters of the debate.

The Michkov vs not Michkov debate sucks because anyone talking about alternative options to Michkov are doing so on the premise they won't take him, and the Michkov at any cost group can't have a discussion, they diminish every hypothetical as to why a team might pass and just say take Michkov.

They assume that Michkov has no flaws and he is a perfect generational talent after his 3 year contract. They also assume the players we will take if not Michkov will automically be a 3rd liner with grit or a second pair D.

Can't critically think past their nose.

 

[WeThreeKings]

They assume that Michkov has no flaws and he is a perfect generational talent after his 3 year contract. They also assume the players we will take if not Michkov will automically be a 3rd liner with grit or a second pair D.

Can't critically think past their nose.

Yeah, it's really annoying and you get painted as a Michkov hating russiaphobe if you discuss any other option than picking him.

 

[Omar]

Wright vs Slaf vs Cooley was a way better debate last year because people stayed within the logical parameters of the debate.

The Michkov vs not Michkov debate sucks because anyone talking about alternative options to Michkov are doing so on the premise they won't take him, and the Michkov at any cost group can't have a discussion, they diminish every hypothetical as to why a team might pass and just say take Michkov.

People are desperate for a star in Montreal. Michkov is the closest thing they’ve ever had a chance to draft.

 

[Habs Halifax]

A lot of that hit rate difference is no doubt coming from picks 1 and 2 though. Every time you see a statistical analysis of draft pick value there is a very steep drop off coming after the first 2 (And a fairly significant difference even between 1 and 2).

Agreed. I was on a 4 hour road trip last weekend with a buddy of mine and we went through each draft starting from 2000 to pass some time. What you said is spot on. 1 is usually very good and 2 as well but not always. 3 is a drop and then more after that. Then you get the other guy later that hits where most don't expect it.

It is fun doing redrafts. Especially top 10. All fans who think they know drafting well should do that exercise and do it for more than just a few drafts. They will learn a lot. Each draft year varies in talent and I find there are more weak drafts then there are strong ones. In many cases, it's hard to find 10 good ones that are real hits and not secondary talent.

Someone from 2-5 is going to disappoint. Maybe two of them. And from 6-10, there maybe 2 hits. Deep draft? Sure, I have heard that before. Remember folks, we are scouting teenagers from age 14/15 to 17/18 and trying to project their growth forward. It's not an easy business.

 

[WeThreeKings]

People are desperate for a star in Montreal. Michkov is the closest thing they’ve ever had a chance to draft.

Yeah that's cool and all, I don't think that's lost on anyone but there's a chance he isn't picked by teams 4-7 and even beyond. So do we just not discuss the merits of drafting other players because we want a star and why can ONLY Michkov be a star?

 

[waitin425]

Agreed. I was on a 4 hour road trip last weekend with a buddy of mine and we went through each draft starting from 2000 to pass some time. What you said is spot on. 1 is usually very good and 2 as well but not always. 3 is a drop and then more after that. Then you get the other guy later that hits where most don't expect it.

It is fun doing redrafts. Especially top 10. All fans who think they know drafting well should do that exercise and do it for more than just a few drafts. They will learn a lot. Each draft year varies in talent and I find there are more weak drafts then there are strong ones. In many cases, it's hard to find 10 good ones that are real hits and not secondary talent.

Someone from 2-5 is going to disappoint. Maybe two of them. And from 6-10, there maybe 2 hits. Deep draft? Sure, I have heard that before. Remember folks, we are scouting teenagers from age 14/15 to 17/18 and trying to project their growth forward. It's not an easy business.

Good Post and reminder. For fun, I went back to the 2003 draft and looked at the first round only.

Hits - 1, 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13, 14, 17, 19, 20, 23, 24, 26, 28

Obviously some subjective opinions in here. But IMO 6 players hit in the top 10 and 6 players hit in the next 10. 4 hit in the bottom third of the first round. If this draft is anywhere close, we have to be very careful about who we draft.

Bergeron and Weber were the only two who became stars picked in the second round. For sure top 5's in redrafts. Pavelski and Buff were later round picks.

1	1	Pittsburgh	Marc-Andre Fleury	G	Cape Breton Screaming Eagles [QMJHL]	985	0	21	21	80	2022-23
1	2	Carolina	Eric Staal	C	Peterborough Petes [OHL]	1365	455	608	1063	854	2022-23
1	3	Florida	Nathan Horton	R	Oshawa Generals [OHL]	626	203	218	421	567	2013-14
1	4	Columbus	Nikolai Zherdev	R	CSKA Moscow [Russia]	421	115	146	261	225	2010-11
1	5	Buffalo	Thomas Vanek	L	U. of Minnesota [WCHA]	1029	373	416	789	547	2018-19
1	6	San Jose	Milan Michalek	L	Ceske Budejovice HC [Czech]	747	208	238	446	394	2016-17
1	7	Nashville	Ryan Suter	D	U.S. Junior National Team [Intl]	1362	103	561	664	733	2022-23
1	8	Atlanta	Braydon Coburn	D	Portland Winter Hawks [WHL]	983	49	185	234	720	2020-21
1	9	Calgary	Dion Phaneuf	D	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]	1048	137	357	494	1345	2018-19
1	10	Montreal	Andrei Kostitsyn	R	CSKA Moscow [Russia]	398	103	119	222	181	2011-12
1	11	Philadelphia	Jeff Carter	C	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	1249	431	405	836	623	2022-23
1	12	NY Rangers	Hugh Jessiman	R	Dartmouth College [ECAC]	2	0	0	0	5	2010-11
1	13	Los Angeles	Dustin Brown	R	Guelph Storm [OHL]	1296	325	387	712	738	2021-22
1	14	Chicago	Brent Seabrook	D	Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL]	1114	103	361	464	661	2019-20
1	15	NY Islanders	Robert Nilsson	C	Leksands IF [SEL]	252	37	81	118	90	2009-10
1	16	San Jose	Steve Bernier	R	Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL]	637	105	125	230	300	2017-18
1	17	New Jersey	Zach Parise	L	U. of North Dakota [WCHA]	1224	429	450	879	436	2022-23
1	18	Washington	Eric Fehr	C	Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]	652	113	108	221	217	2018-19
1	19	Anaheim	Ryan Getzlaf	C	Calgary Hitmen [WHL]	1157	282	737	1019	960	2021-22
1	20	Minnesota	Brent Burns	D	Brampton Battalion [OHL]	1333	245	593	838	807	2022-23
1	21	Boston	Mark Stuart	D	Colorado College [WCHA]	673	26	67	93	722	2016-17
1	22	Edmonton	Marc-Antoine Pouliot	C	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]	192	21	36	57	76	2011-12
1	23	Vancouver	Ryan Kesler	C	Ohio State University [CCHA]	1001	258	315	573	920	2018-19
1	24	Philadelphia	Mike Richards	C	Kitchener Rangers [OHL]	749	181	306	487	585	2015-16
1	25	Florida	Anthony Stewart	R	Kingston Frontenacs [OHL]	262	27	44	71	123	2011-12
1	26	Los Angeles	Brian Boyle	C	St. Sebastian's [Mass. H.S.]	871	141	111	252	615	2021-22
1	27	Los Angeles	Jeff Tambellini	R	U. of Michigan [CCHA]	242	27	36	63	88	2010-11
1	28	Anaheim	Corey Perry	R	London Knights [OHL]	1257	417	466	883	1380	2022-23
1	29	Ottawa	Patrick Eaves	R	Boston College [H-East]	633	132	110	242	210	2018-19
1	30	St. Louis	Shawn Belle	D	Tri-City Americans [WHL]	20	0	1	1	2	2010-11