Confirmed with Link: Canadiens Will Pick 5th (Hughes Presser in OP) NO POLITICS

[WeThreeKings]

The thing with this Habs management team is that they keep things as tight lipped as possible. There doesn't seem to be any leaks at all regarding anything they do. If I was a betting man however, I would be putting my money on a couple of players.....But I wouldn't bet the house on it, put it that way.

Let's say the top 4 goes consensus.

I'd put the odds at

Leonard 30%
Reinbacher 30%
Dvorsky 20%
Michkov 10%
Benson 5%
Field 5%

 

[SOLR]

If Toffoli was faster and more aggressive and wanted to put players through the boards....then yes.

Toffoli does all this, but he's not fast so it seems like he doesn't.

 

[Jaynki]

Lehkonen actually had a better DY PPG in Liiga than Hintz, Aho, Slafkovsky, Lundell, Kotkaniemi, Puljujärvi, and Rantanen. I believe only Barkov and Laine had higher in the last decade.

The only thing it proves is that production in Euro leagues for 18yo is borderline meaningless

 

[SOLR]

Let's say the top 4 goes consensus.

I'd put the odds at

Leonard 30%
Reinbacher 30%
Dvorsky 20%
Michkov 10%
Benson 5%
Field 5%

Michkov is in the top 4. That's the story not told. I think GMs are playing a deception game, thus Smith and Carlsson are not sure fire top 4. So easy to disinform here.

 

[RC51]

lets see what Huges does. Mickov is still on the board at 5, lets see if the phone rings.
so now what would be the overpayment to get Michkov? just how far will someone go to get him. The more it's true that he is a generational player the more the offer MUST BE HUGE.

 

[Jaynki]

Michkov is the easy pick. The red flags in his case are irrelevant and his talent level alone justify his selection, even with all the risk associated. It is okay to select him and even if he never comes i would still see it as a good bet.

On the other hand, it is okay to skip him because the red flags are there and there will be some decent prospect on the board. This option comes with a condition tho, don't fail your pick.

 

[BLONG7]

Drouin isn't just soft; he's also playing scared. But Caufield/Suzuki need some big time sandpaper with them because they are soft.

Disagree....

 

[WeThreeKings]

Michkov is in the top 4. That's the story not told. I think GMs are playing a deception game, thus Smith and Carlsson are not sure fire top 4. So easy to disinform here.

There's nothing coming from the combine or scouting community to really support that, other than the Sharks are a potential Michkov landing spot but most people think they'll take Carlsson/Smith.

We will see when it comes to fruition, but we heard about a Shane Wright slide close to the draft and no one wanted to believe that either.

lets see what Huges does. Mickov is still on the board at 5, lets see if the phone rings.
so now what would be the overpayment to get Michkov? just how far will someone go to get him. The more it's true that he is a generational player the more the offer MUST BE HUGE.

The sense at the combine was Montreal's phone will ring for 5 but it won't be for Michkov. It will be for David Reinbacher since the belief is Arizona is taking him if he is still there and a lot of teams want him and would be willing to pay the premium to jump Arizona.

The question for Montreal becomes, how much do you like Michkov, Benson or Dvorsky to get paid to move down and lose on Leonard and Reinbacher. Likely a price no one is going to pay.

 

[durojean]

...Slaf uses his body perfectly fine...like Rantanen does, like Draisaitl does...that's "sandpaper" that can score...doesn't need to be an Anderson to have sandpaper...stop confusing big hits with sandpaper...

You are right, he uses his size with his head down to make sure he’s not able to finish the season and get’s concussed really fast in his career.

Plays are going tonfast for him, we have to hope he adapts.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Any clips against 16+ year olds?

It must've translated since he had 20pts in 27 games in the KHL at 18 years old, which is a better PPG than Ovy, Kaprisov and Kucherov at the same age.

 

[Gustave]

The sense at the combine was Montreal's phone will ring for 5 but it won't be for Michkov. It will be for David Reinbacher since the belief is Arizona is taking him if he is still there and a lot of teams want him and would be willing to pay the premium to jump Arizona.

The question for Montreal becomes, how much do you like Michkov, Benson or Dvorsky to get paid to move down and lose on Leonard and Reinbacher. Likely a price no one is going to pay.

If that's so then it might be time for the Habs to be the ones that move up. Eliminate all doubt, put your big boy pants on and offer a shit load for the one you prefer in between Fantili Leo or Smith.

It makes so much sense for the timeline of our rebuid. I care about picks but I get that getting the right player is way important than quantity at this point. Top 4 are virtual no doubters, get it done. All next three picks 2024/25 (2) are available for negotiations. Take 1 or 2 of them, just go for it.

 

[WeThreeKings]

If that's so then it might be time for the Habs to be the ones that move up. Eliminate all doubt, put your big boy pants on and offer a shit load for the one you prefer in between Fantili Leo or Smith.

It makes so much sense for the timeline of our rebuid. I care about picks but I get that getting the right player is way important than quantity at this point. Top 4 are virtual no doubters, get it done. All next three picks 2024/25 (2) are available for negotiations. Take 1 or 2 of them, just go for it.

You'd have to have a receptive team to that and if the teams in the top 4 feel there is a drop-off, they aren't likely going to be talked out of it.

You have to put yourself in their shoes, would you willingly let go of Leo Carlsson? Probably not, probably not for an overpay that wouldn't make sense for the other team.

The only chance might be San Jose at 4 if they really like Reinbacher and don't think Smith is a tier above.

 

[Gustave]

You'd have to have a receptive team to that and if the teams in the top 4 feel there is a drop-off, they aren't likely going to be talked out of it.

You have to put yourself in their shoes, would you willingly let go of Leo Carlsson? Probably not, probably not for an overpay that wouldn't make sense for the other team.

The only chance might be San Jose at 4 if they really like Reinbacher and don't think Smith is a tier above.

That goes without saying. I'd shoot my shot, still. Try and blow away other teams, but I digress.
No doubt Hugo are going for Leonard anyway (if no top 4 slips), and hold on to the subsequent picks.

 

[MTL-rules]

So we could have drafted Nemec last year and draft Michkov this year, but in all likely hood we'll have to settle for Slaf and Reinbacher... Gorton doesn't know shit about drafting... Rangers are a prime exemple...

 

[WeThreeKings]

So we could have drafted Nemec last year and draft Michkov this year, but in all likely hood we'll have to settle for Slaf and Reinbacher... Gorton doesn't know shit about drafting... Rangers are a prime exemple...

Let's just ignore how he built the Boston Bruins.

 

[BergevinBurner]

I'm fully expecting us to pass on Michkov if he's there at 5th. Those quotes from Hughes on the night of the lottery said it all. He mentioned if they viewed Michkov and another player as being similarly talented, then Michkov would lose the tie breaker in that situation.

That statement is so absurd because at 5 there's a clear gap between Michkov and the rest of the pack, so why even bother saying that unless you're laying the foundation of your reason/excuse of why you're going to pass on him. It'd be like Chicago coming out and saying "Bedard's great and all, but if we think someone else is as talented as him and bigger, then Bedard would lose that tie breaker".

 

[Jaynki]

I trust the consensus more than any specific team’s scouting dept — especially and particularly the Habs’ who haven’t had any notable success drafting productive forwards in a very long time.

Now some will say that HuGo deserve a clean slate but my response is simple: until the results change we cannot just assume these new bosses are better at drafting than the general consensus. It requires actual evidence.

I think we have actual evidence into how better Hughes and Gorton are compared to the former administration, although we will agree, its not a bar that is hard to surpass. Its also preliminary evidence that we have a good front office in my opinion.

We haven't seen result on the ice as of right now. Also, i wan't to illustrate something before making my point, i don't believe in tanking eternally, it is not a viable strategy. It does not guarantee the Matthews and the McDavid nor does it guarantee any form of successes.

The best bet to ultimately acquire strong talent and building a contender is to build a top-class organisation from top to bottom. That goes beyond being good at drafting. And it is what is being built right now in Montreal.

Bringing Martin St. Louis into the organisation was quite the homerun and i don't think St. Louis would have come with any GM or in any organisation. Its telling that they have been able to brought him.

Caufield signing an 8 year extension this easily is also quite telling. Toronto had troubles signing all of their stars (Nylander, Marner and Matthews.) and they had to settle for 5 years with Matthews. I remember we had a discussion at some point and we were expecting Caufield to also settle for 5 years, which we believed would have been the logical thing to do for him. So to me, him settling for 8 years is telling.

Dreger had a pieces last spring about how Montreal is becoming discussed by the players around the league as a potential destination. Players are getting curious about what is being built here.

To me, those thing speaks volume. We haven't seen the result from an on-ice perspective. But we have hired a lot of quality people and it seems we are building this top-class organisation.

I know you have been, with valid reasons, a critics of Slafkovksy, but we still dodged the Wright-bullet here. It would have been a catastrophe.

I am confident that the front office will make the right moves, they will obviously have some fails too, but i think we are moving in the right direction and we have some evidence of this.

Let's just ignore how he built the Boston Bruins.

Yeah,

Let's focus on how he ''failed'' the consensus kakko and lafreniere. Let's ignore the fact that he moved up for Marchand. Was vocal and agressive to Sather for him to draft Shesterkin. Let's ignore that he moved up for both K'Andre Miller and Braden Schneider. He was harshly criticised for signing Kreider to a long term deal, ended up being quite the move.

Let's focus on drafting Lias Andersson at 7. But let's ignore that he traded f***ing Derek Stepan for a 7OV pick and DeAngelo.

If anything, his ?feuille de route? is impressive.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think we have actual evidence into how better Hughes and Gorton are compared to the former administration, although we will agree, its not a bar that is hard to surpass. Its also preliminary evidence that we have a good front office in my opinion.

We haven't seen result on the ice as of right now. Also, i wan't to illustrate something before making my point, i don't believe in tanking eternally, it is not a viable strategy. It does not guarantee the Matthews and the McDavid nor does it guarantee any form of successes.

The best bet to ultimately acquire strong talent and building a contender is to build a top-class organisation from top to bottom. That goes beyond being good at drafting. And it is what is being built right now in Montreal.

Bringing Martin St. Louis into the organisation was quite the homerun and i don't think St. Louis would have come with any GM or in any organisation. Its telling that they have been able to brought him.

Caufield signing an 8 year extension this easily is also quite telling. Toronto had troubles signing all of their stars (Nylander, Marner and Matthews.) and they had to settle for 5 years with Matthews. I remember we had a discussion at some point and we were expecting Caufield to also settle for 5 years, which we believed would have been the logical thing to do for him. So to me, him settling for 8 years is telling.

Dreger had a pieces last spring about how Montreal is becoming discussed by the players around the league as a potential destination. Players are getting curious about what is being built here.

To me, those thing speaks volume. We haven't seen the result from an on-ice perspective. But we have hired a lot of quality people and it seems we are building this top-class organisation.

I know you have been, with valid reasons, a critics of Slafkovksy, but we still dodged the Wright-bullet here. It would have been a catastrophe.

I am confident that the front office will make the right moves, they will obviously have some fails too, but i think we are moving in the right direction and we have some evidence of this.

This is an excellent post and what I feel can be added:

- I understand the frustration when a team doesn't select who you want in the draft. That doesn't mean the pick they make isn't the right selection. We haven't seen the process play out here but I don't know how you can't be encouraged so far in what they've been able to do with Caufield, Dach and the defenseman.

- We all have some PTSD from the previous regime but this is different. This is a development team. They have KPIs. They build development plans. They've created a destination for the players to come, train and develop with the team during the summer. This isn't a pick and hope for the best scenario anymore. Let the development team show us if they can be trusted or not.

- We have an analytics department. This isn't Bergevin picking a guy because he looks good without a shirt on. Slafkovsky had really good analytics for a winger. They took Mesar and Hutson as small skilled guys with great analytics. They are using data to inform their decisions as well. Whoever they take in the top 5, will also have the analytics to back up that selection.

- High floors, high compete, size, all of these things do matter. Look no further than Toronto to see what happens when you only put an emphasis on offensive skill. These guys aren't idiots.. the players that they are taking high in the draft are profiles that are extremely valuable in the NHL and are also extremely rare to acquire.

 

[Jaynki]

Hughes and Gorton should be tarred and feathered if they're stupid enough to pass on Michkov in favor of a vastly inferior player. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now but if they f*** this up, they'll deserve all the hate coming their way.

Go for the home run, don't settle for the low risk low reward coward pick.

I don't disagree with you, bet let's wait and see who they pick and how he ends up no?

Leonard could be a very nice top-line players with Suzuki and Caufield and he would round out our top 6 greatly with Dach and Slafkovsky.

Reinbacher with Guhle and Hutson has the making of a top defensive in the league.

No need to overreact or condemn now. We will see.

 

[Jaynki]

This is an excellent post and what I feel can be added:

- I understand the frustration when a team doesn't select who you want in the draft. That doesn't mean the pick they make isn't the right selection. We haven't seen the process play out here but I don't know how you can't be encouraged so far in what they've been able to do with Caufield, Dach and the defenseman.

- We all have some PTSD from the previous regime but this is different. This is a development team. They have KPIs. They build development plans. They've created a destination for the players to come, train and develop with the team during the summer. This isn't a pick and hope for the best scenario anymore. Let the development team show us if they can be trusted or not.

- We have an analytics department. This isn't Bergevin picking a guy because he looks good without a shirt on. Slafkovsky had really good analytics for a winger. They took Mesar and Hutson as small skilled guys with great analytics. They are using data to inform their decisions as well. Whoever they take in the top 5, will also have the analytics to back up that selection.

- High floors, high compete, size, all of these things do matter. Look no further than Toronto to see what happens when you only put an emphasis on offensive skill. These guys aren't idiots.. the players that they are taking high in the draft are profiles that are extremely valuable in the NHL and are also extremely rare to acquire.

100% agree.

Concerning mainly your first point, it is normal and a fun game to have a preferred pick. But let's not get on our high horses. As nice as it would be to have Fantilli or Carlsson, one of them may bust. The unpopular guy we will select at 5 may end up the most valuable player of the draft. Players picked 6-10, in every draft, ends up better than players picked 1-5. Let's wait and see.

People say, we could have ended up with Nemec and Michkov. And we will f***ing end up with Slafkovsy and Reinbacher. Its nothing more than opinion and a reflect of fear. We don't know who will be the best of them all just yet.

We could also have ended up with f***ing Shane Wright and it would have been very popular. Yet not even a year later, it would have been a f***ing tragedy and we would say f*** we could have had Slafkovksy the unicorn.

Gorton and especially Hughes have builded their career taking major risk. They know businesses and they have a strong leadership to make the tough decision. I am confident that they will make the right moves.

 

[WeThreeKings]

100% agree.

Concerning mainly your first point, it is normal and a fun game to have a preferred pick. But let's not get on our high horses. As nice as it would be to have Fantilli or Carlsson, one of them may bust. The unpopular guy we will select at 5 may end up the most valuable player of the draft. Players picked 6-10, in every draft, ends up better than players picked 1-5. Let's wait and see.

People say, we could have ended up with Nemec and Michkov. And we will f***ing end up with Slafkovsy and Reinbacher. Its nothing more than opinion and a reflect of fear. We don't know who will be the best of them all just yet.

We could also have ended up with f***ing Shane Wright and it would have been very popular. Yet not even a year later, it would have been a f***ing tragedy and we would say f*** we could have had Slafkovksy the unicorn.

Gorton and especially Hughes have builded their career taking major risk. They know businesses and they have a strong leadership to make the tough decision. I am confident that they will make the right moves.

The reality is that not every move will work out.

We can use the Tampa Bay Lightning as the crown jewel. They took Koekkoek ahead of Vasilevskiy. They took Namestnikov ahead of Kucherov.

What does that team look like and how are they regarded if they didn't have the extra picks? They'd be made fun of on a lot of their draft picks.

You can have the smartest people in the world and all the right data, but projecting and developing 18 year old kids will always have a high degree of volatility but at least we have an analytics and development team who are trying to be cutting edge to guide these kids and move them toward a bigger degree of certainty.

 

[Jack Skellington]

Come on Bobrov, do your thing!!!!

Is there a big euro winger with no production available?

 

[Benstheman]

Ahahah panic already settling in… nobody knows shit about what will happen at the draft, except for Bedard.

Habs need big time talent and they will get that with their pick, no matter what.

 

[DAChampion]

Yeah, I'm just happy the Habs are getting a good player.

From the sound of it, Reinbacher, Leonard, Benson, Smith, Carlson all have significant potential to be impact players.

Mitchkov would be great, he sounds like a potential HOFer, but it's not his fault that several world leaders are walking into world war III with the enthusiasm of coked-up lemmings.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Is there a big euro winger with no production available?

We should pick the guy who was hyped the most prior the season, lays an egg, still gets the benefit of the doubt and then lays an egg in his D+1.