Anyone know the exact clinching scenarios outside of a Canada win? I could probably figure it out but don’t have the time
Canada: 25 points, +14, 3 games left (@Costa Rica, vs. Jamaica, @Panama)
USA: 21 points, +9, 3 games left (@Mexico, vs Panama, @Costa Rica), needs to be +5 over Canada to pass them
Mexico: 21 points, +6, 3 games left (vs. USA, @Honduras, vs. El Savador), needs to be +5 over Canada to pass them
Panama: 17 points, +1, 3 games left (vs. Honduras, @USA, vs. Canada), needs to be +9 over Canada to pass them outright (so winning out), +8 to tie.
Costa Rica: 16 points, +1, 3 games left (vs. Canada, @El Salvador, vs USA), needs to be +9 and hope Canada destroys its GD by losing all of them games to pass them (so winning out)
Basically, all we need to qualify is for Panama and Costa Rica to lose ONE point each. Costa Rica is playing us and the USA + going to Salvador. They are not getting 9 points. Panama goes to the USA and play us. Mexico is probably going to win out.
To clinch tonight:
- We win (then only USA or Mexico could catch us, not both as they play each other tonight)
- Panama draw and we get at least 1 point tonight (which also prevents Costa Rica from catching us as they need all 9 points to have a chance at catching us. A tie and we are virtually qualified as Panama still need to win out to TIE us and then it becomes a GD thing and we would need to completely collapse for them to catch us in GD)
- Mexico and USA draw, we get at least 1 point. USA play Panama and Costa Rica both. People will drop points and not be able to catch us
I think that's basically it.
EDIT: Mexico beats the USA. USA play 3 teams that are in the race. 3 of the 4 teams behind us need to pass us for us to not qualify. If Mexico wins tonight, the USA have to win out to pass us (+5, and, well, with 2 games left, they need to win out). If they win out, it means that Costa Rica and Panama both lose points so they are done. So yeah, Mexico win tonight and we are in.