Post-Game Talk: Can we leave Stu in a California Closet?

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah watched Henrique pretty close last night. Dude looks like he's in retirement mode. Looks like what an old version of Nuge will be when the passion, speed and energy reach all time lows.

3M x 2 year deal with NMC. JJ needs a slap.

The penalty he took alone, a selfish retaliation, will preclude him being here again. He can't be doing that relative to his contributions this season which have been few to none. I was a fan of his but he's not got it anymore. Maybe he digs down and gives some more. At this point I doubt it. In prime Henrique was better than Nuge. STronger player, more grit, more battle. Has a better shot too.

 

[McDNicks17]

It's a fair perspective, but I'm just making the point that the organization has a longer lifespan than Holland's tenure. It matters the position he inherited the franchise and where he left it.

He was a net positive. To your point, it hasn't been enough, but he had things moving in the right direction. He improved the D, he improved the forwards tremendously, he didn't do enough in goal and he was no better than Chia in managing the cap. That's his legacy IMO.

but the guy he inherited it from actively destroyed value. Chia was worse at forward than what he inherited, no better at D, worse in goal and horrific with the cap. Holland spent 5 years digging out... Bowman is still feeling the effects of that mismanagement under Chia.

Being a net positive should probably be the bare minimum when you have prime McDrai and $70M to spend.

Unfortunately Holland spent all that money on guys with about three year shelf lives.

 

[NeverForget06]

Such a killer that both Henrique and Arvi have NMC. A pair of stupid moves.

This team makes me so depressed. Might have some fellow bagheads in a month or two

 

[Drivesaitl]

There is no question that our team has historically, like really, really historically... undervalued investing in goaltending.

It goes all the way back to Andy Moog and Curtis Joseph. We appreciated good goaltending when we had it (Fuhr, Ranford), but we were never, ever willing to pay up for it. It was always considered disposable.

In that context, I have argued this season that we have to check our expectations against how we are prioritizing our cap dollars and constructing our team. You make assessments of value, investment decisions therefrom and for better or worse we have clearly prioritized offense over defense (even in our defense), experience over youth and goaltending comes last.

You could quite easily say "well we'd be willing to pay a good goalie if we had one"... but would we? I'm not as sure that we would. And anyway, if we aren't investing in the position (scouting, coaching, third party consultants) how would we ever stumble upon one, and even if we did, would we know it in time?

So when everybody is up in arms after EVERY GAME about the goaltending... my reaction becomes "what on earth did you expect".

Check around the league at how low paid some quality goalies are and how easy they were to obtain. Several goalies in the 5M range which we paid for Jack Campbell. Its not that the team hasn't had the cap for it, or the opportunity for it, they don't dick about goalies primarily due I would think to Dustin Schwartz being their goalie whisperer.

Sure the org undervalues goalies and this has been chronic.

What do fans expect? An org that could at least be competent in assessing, accruing such a key spot.

I don't think its as clear we're not putting priority on D. Theres been a lot of investment there. Where we cut expenses mostly is on load up of cheap bargain bin forwards that mostly can't play, or too old, etc.

If anything the org has chronically put next to no value on development of players in general, specifically roleplayers. Which again we saw in offseason. A team just willing to lose several players like it doesn't matter.

Really in sum its an org run top to bottom like shit. Would be difficult to have McD and Drai and have accomplished so little, relatively.

 

[yukoner88]

It's so painful to see how far Skinner has regressed this season. I'm on record for being an avid supporter of Stu, cause with his flaws, he seemed to have steady improvement year to year, and have the ability to bounce back strong right away after a poor outting. But this year, his game has just flat lined to a level that's very much below average. Yes Skinner's mobility has never been great, but it's like they've coached our the little bit that he had.

Furthermore


This was the 2nd time in her life my girlfriend sat down and watched a hockey game.

And in the 2nd period she was wondering all night about Skinner.

"Do teams have second goalies? Why aren't they switching to the other goalie??"

Even she understood that they had to get Skinner out of there.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

haha the base stats:

The advanced stats:

I mean the Oilers likely lose last night with "average" goaltending.
Basically the difference between Edmonton and Colorado are the goalies.

 

[Canovin]

Eye test is another word for bias. Metrics are just a count of what has happened on the ice. The classic old "I can tell he is a criminal just by looking at him" vs evidence based judgement. I'm not going to try to convince you because you have your mind made up and you are entitled to your opinion

You mean your bias test.

Do you watch the games like everyone else or are you just looking at metrics? Lol

 

[Drivesaitl]

My sense is that there is an organizational philosophy toward goaltending that essentially doesn't take it very seriously. The justification that media mouthpieces give regarding Skinner is that his level of play is commensurate with his cap hit, and that's sufficient. (Whether the organization has spent those "savings" efficiently is another question.)

You hear it from people here too. I mean, there was some genius on here saying Skinner at his cap hit is better than Vasilevsky. I'm sure that mentality actually reflects the organization's position (though it's probably not as dramatic as thinking Skinner is better than the best goalie in the world). It's the only thing that makes sense.

Well expressed. Such arguments don't take into account that Goaltending is basically the pitching of hockey. Would MLB teams be interested in cutting cap on the most salient spot?

This org also did spend the money on the goaltending file. They just went wrong direction, and sometimes I think it was even somewhat purposeful. Goalie studs exist relatively cheap. Competent goalies exist for cheaper, the latter all we need. I almost think the org avoided getting a stud because they wanted Skinner to eventually get the spot. So they picked somebody that would share games rather than be the guy. The org wanted hometown Skinner to be the guy.

We spend on the spot, we just don't do it well, and the org doesn't know where to land. You don't land on Skinner, I was saying that here the last 3yrs. I'm just some punter.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's so painful to see how far Skinner has regressed this season. I'm on record for being an avid supporter of Stu, cause with his flaws, he seemed to have steady improvement year to year, and have the ability to bounce back strong right away after a poor outting. But this year, his game has just flat lined to a level that's very much below average. Yes Skinner's mobility has never been great, but it's like they've coached our the little bit that he had.

Furthermore


This was the 2nd time in her life my girlfriend sat down and watched a hockey game.

And in the 2nd period she was wondering all night about Skinner.

"Do teams have second goalies? Why aren't they switching to the other goalie??"

Even she understood that they had to get Skinner out of there.

It isn't so much Skinner regression. He is what he is. Even in hotspells last season I was constantly noting openings, Skinner misplays, Skinner slow to get across, Skinner not knowing where puck is sequences. These are all there, and invariably there. The metric that changes is whether these are being punished or not in any given time. When Skinner is playing a team that is feeling it from a scoring POV he's being put to bed. He's being trounced. The amount of times this guy has given up 4, 5, 6, goals in his career, its no illusion. When teams we play have some guys heated up they are picking spots and punishing him.

People ill advisedly point to one series like Dallas and say "look, see" my response to that is pointing out a Dallas club that often have trouble scoring, are susceptible to getting into scoreless streaks and even did so against the hapless Flames one post season.

Skinner can have positive segments when the team in front of him are shutting down almost anything, that are mopping up all his bad rebounds and poor puck play and control, and against teams that are not feeling it from a scoring pov, or just not good enough at all to mount challenges.

Skinner is what he is. Slow, lumbering, deficient in skillsets. Deficient in reads. etc.

 

[mix1home]

WHAAAAAT

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE LET THIS BE TRUE

PLEASE
View attachment 1021434

It's truly crazy, but that subreddit is full of weird casual fans which I suppose explains some of that.

 

[MessierThanThou]

It's a fair perspective, but I'm just making the point that the organization has a longer lifespan than Holland's tenure. It matters the position he inherited the franchise and where he left it.

He was a net positive. To your point, it hasn't been enough, but he had things moving in the right direction. He improved the D, he improved the forwards tremendously, he didn't do enough in goal and he was no better than Chia in managing the cap. That's his legacy IMO.

but the guy he inherited it from actively destroyed value. Chia was worse at forward than what he inherited, no better at D, worse in goal and horrific with the cap. Holland spent 5 years digging out... Bowman is still feeling the effects of that mismanagement under Chia.

Chiarelli was worse and the wounds from his tenure are still here, but that doesn't make Holland a net positive. Chiarelli is one of the worst GMs in league history, so you can still be better than him and still be terrible.

The burdensome Nurse and Campbell contracts cost us two Cups, he fumbled Broberg and Holloway, and gave away a guy we could really use right now in Michael Kesselring, in favor of Vinny (who couldn't keep up in the playoffs and who Pittsburgh didn't even want to keep). Overpaid for a washed Mike Green. Thought Cody Ceci was a top-pair D-man and that a washed Duncan Keith (at over 5 million) was the answer to our blueline. Snagging Ekholm was the only good move he made and it sounds like it wasn't even his idea.

You know what Chiarelli, Holland, and Bowman all have in common? They fumbled the fortunes of their previous franchises and were on the way down before the Oilers rescued them from the dumpster. Why does this team repeat the same mistakes and expect different results?

 

[foshizzle]

Do you watch the games like everyone else or are you just looking at metrics? Lol

Watch the games. But I’m also self-aware and know I have biases.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Such a killer that both Henrique and Arvi have NMC. A pair of stupid moves.

This team makes me so depressed. Might have some fellow bagheads in a month or two

Team brings in Arvid, Skinner and Podz in offseason. What I said was a terrible offseason in relation to us losing several younger players with future potential.

Team compounds during season adding Kling, Walman, Jones, Frederic and failing to address the key spot goaltending.

We've had a lot of management change but they need to lose their jobs again on the goaltending file alone. Sheer incompetence on display in assessment, in org plan etc. There isn't one. The plan is McD and Drai, and hope.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

It isn't so much Skinner regression. He is what he is. Even in hotspells last season I was constantly noting openings, Skinner misplays, Skinner slow to get across, Skinner not knowing where puck is sequences. These are all there, and invariably there. The metric that changes is whether these are being punished or not in any given time. When Skinner is playing a team that is feeling it from a scoring POV he's being put to bed. He's being trounced. The amount of times this guy has given up 4, 5, 6, goals in his career, its no illusion. When teams we play have some guys heated up they are picking spots and punishing him.

People ill advisedly point to one series like Dallas and say "look, see" my response to that is pointing out a Dallas club that often have trouble scoring, are susceptible to getting into scoreless streaks and even did so against the hapless Flames one post season.

Skinner can have positive segments when the team in front of him are shutting down almost anything, that are mopping up all his bad rebounds and poor puck play and control, and against teams that are not feeling it from a scoring pov, or just not good enough at all to mount challenges.

Skinner is what he is. Slow, lumbering, deficient in skillsets. Deficient in reads. etc.

Yup.

The problem with Skinner is that scouting exists.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Watch the games. But I’m also self-aware and know I have biases.

I've really enjoyed your transition as a poster. You used to be a bit more myopic if I can say that, and I now see you much more into discussion, views, consideration etc.

I appreciate anybody on a board that tries to look at different aspects.

 

[foshizzle]

It isn't so much Skinner regression. He is what he is. Even in hotspells last season I was constantly noting openings, Skinner misplays, Skinner slow to get across, Skinner not knowing where puck is sequences. These are all there, and invariably there. The metric that changes is whether these are being punished or not in any given time. When Skinner is playing a team that is feeling it from a scoring POV he's being put to bed. He's being trounced. The amount of times this guy has given up 4, 5, 6, goals in his career, its no illusion. When teams we play have some guys heated up they are picking spots and punishing him.

People ill advisedly point to one series like Dallas and say "look, see" my response to that is pointing out a Dallas club that often have trouble scoring, are susceptible to getting into scoreless streaks and even did so against the hapless Flames one post season.

Skinner can have positive segments when the team in front of him are shutting down almost anything, that are mopping up all his bad rebounds and poor puck play and control, and against teams that are not feeling it from a scoring pov, or just not good enough at all to mount challenges.

Skinner is what he is. Slow, lumbering, deficient in skillsets. Deficient in reads. etc.

Awesome points.

If you look at Skinner last year- the Oilers gave up the 2nd fewest rush chances against. You know who allowed the most goals against? Skinner. Even when the oilers were on their winning streak- he was leaking goals against on the rush, and his goals saved above expected was below average. It was team defence, which was criminally underrated last season.

Excellent post on your part and you nailed it.

 

[foshizzle]

I've really enjoyed your transition as a poster. You used to be a bit more myopic if I can say that, and I now see you much more into discussion, views, consideration etc.

I appreciate anybody on a board that tries to look at different aspects.

Thanks so much, Drive! I appreciate that!

 

[tardigrade81]

My biggest issue is if I suit up for goalie. The women will literally be all over me. I'm married. I don't need that

Check out this chic behind me giving me the look

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yup.

The problem with Skinner is that scouting exists.

Yeah. Kings are doing a lot of what I said teams should do against Skinner.

1) lots of east west passing schemes to exploit movement

2) Use of shot passes that simply blow up Skinner (Nucks found the gravy)

3Active screens that destroy Skinners limited tracking. So that he just sits in butterfly and hopes a shot hits him

4) I lol that the Kings even deployed the purposeful backboards pass. Something I said teams should be doing for years. Skinner is completely lost at pucks bumping back from boards.

A couple others are wraps and rebound passes. So much you can do to exploit Skinner. Of course ability to pick some corners also requisite.

 

[Slats432]

haha the base stats:
View attachment 1021731

The advanced stats:

View attachment 1021732

I mean the Oilers likely lose last night with "average" goaltending.
Basically the difference between Edmonton and Colorado are the goalies.

I was on the Blackwood train as far back as 2023.

Rumor: Post in thread 'Rumors & Proposals Thread | Broberg Wants Out, Holland Sheds a Tear and Questions His Life Decisions While Making $13,698 a Day'

Dec 13, 2023

Gibson is the only one worthwhile here. He can easily steal the starting role and make us a legit powerhouse

Daccord is playing well on a bad team. Blackwood might be another "reasonable" option. Both make reasonable money.

• Slats432

 

[MessierThanThou]

I was on the Blackwood train as far back as 2023.

Rumor: Post in thread 'Rumors & Proposals Thread | Broberg Wants Out, Holland Sheds a Tear and Questions His Life Decisions While Making $13,698 a Day'

Dec 13, 2023

Gibson is the only one worthwhile here. He can easily steal the starting role and make us a legit powerhouse

Daccord is playing well on a bad team. Blackwood might be another "reasonable" option. Both make reasonable money.

• Slats432

That's because, based on your username alone, you know how crucial competent management is to success. Gretzky would have zero cups as well if he had late-stage Chia-Holland-Bowman and the Summer of Jackson instead of Glen Sather.

I'm still amazed that the Oilers not only won a Cup without Gretzky, they still made it to the Conference Finals one season after trading Messier.

We need an A.I. of prime Glen Sather to manage this team.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Awesome points.

If you look at Skinner last year- the Oilers gave up the 2nd fewest rush chances against. You know who allowed the most goals against? Skinner. Even when the oilers were on their winning streak- he was leaking goals against on the rush, and his goals saved above expected was below average. It was team defence, which was criminally underrated last season.

Excellent post on your part and you nailed it.

I guess sometimes the Analytics and the seen him good kind of align. I love goaltending and have always been really into analyzing it and say since Dryden, Cheevers, Tretiak etc. Just a fascination for me and I did play a bit too. But mostly I just examine the position quite a lot, and I try to focus on skillsets, tendencies. Try to analyze what makes a Quick or Vasi or Roli or Hill work.

55yrs of viewing and studying goaltending, playoffs etc, it become easier to spot goalie strengths, skills, flaws, potential etc. 2yrs ago I was immediately saying Hill was the goalie Knights should be using. Was saying it before the playoffs. He had the right block out big play in net that completed Vegas. he's more the Billy Smith or Ron Hextall that have beat us before. Uses his size, blocks or interferes with east west passes, blocks out a McD from sweeping in on side. They needed that to beat us. Adin Hill was that goalie. Logan Thompson too. But the present day hockey coaches, they don't prefer that kind of goaltending, even though team specifically it can be what you need.

 

[Louis Cypher]

It's so painful to see how far Skinner has regressed this season. I'm on record for being an avid supporter of Stu, cause with his flaws, he seemed to have steady improvement year to year, and have the ability to bounce back strong right away after a poor outting. But this year, his game has just flat lined to a level that's very much below average. Yes Skinner's mobility has never been great, but it's like they've coached our the little bit that he had.

Furthermore


This was the 2nd time in her life my girlfriend sat down and watched a hockey game.

And in the 2nd period she was wondering all night about Skinner.

"Do teams have second goalies? Why aren't they switching to the other goalie??"

Even she understood that they had to get Skinner out of there.

My wife has been on the play Picard train for a long time.

 

[Louis Cypher]

We had Anthony Stolarz at one point. Gave him 5 games and kicked him to the curb I guess.

 

[Louis Cypher]

People can talk about the team being old and slow etc. But lots of teams in the playoffs have old players.

For whatever reason, the Oilers struggle to get everyone involved and get everyone going. Been like this for seasons.

It was Jacksons problem to figure out and he’s completely missed the mark.

The special teams have had a large impact on this series to date. Its been a complete reversal of previous years. Its been a problem all year. Management and coaching haven’t fixed it all year.

We had record breaking PK last year. This year it's been bad and now terrible.