Can they break the streak?

[Shimso]

Strongly disagree....Everything remains equal. Every other franchise plays the same shortened season. What does how the Leafs performed over 48 games last season got to do with anything? It has zero relevance. One can easily pick a 48 game section of the season where they were a lottery team too. Your logic does not compute.

The shortened season makes things different because:
-if the Leafs go on a hot streak, it could be enough to put them over the top
-if the Leafs go on a cold streak, it could be impossible to recover
-injuries can greatly affect the leafs or one of the teams the leafs are chasing; a big name getting injured means a team might not be able to recover in time
-fatigue can be an issue, more so with older teams (also leading to injuries)

The shorter season makes it more unpredictable

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Cujo had Lumme, McCabe, Dimitri M., Kaberle etc. all good defensemen

joke right? cause lumme sucked berg sucked to and you didn't mention him. Lets not forget coey cross

 

[Melrose Munch]

wait, i'm still trying to figure out the 'we always play well the 1st half' thing

both of the two years before last we were in the bottom 3 of the nhl at the half way point

Last year we started out good right?

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Since everyone is saying the fact they finished 5th last is proof, I'd like to point out, they were indeed a playoff team through 48 games last season with terrible coaching and goaltending.

I don't get with this parity and half a season how you can say "No Chance". Any team in the East can make it.

Technically, as of the 48th game they were tied for 8th, but Washington had 1 game in hand.

 

[MajorityRules*]

Strongly disagree....Everything remains equal. Every other franchise plays the same shortened season. What does how the Leafs performed over 48 games last season got to do with anything? It has zero relevance. One can easily pick a 48 game section of the season where they were a lottery team too. Your logic does not compute.

So you don't think that hot and cold streaks have more of an effect on a shortened season? Had the season only been 48 games last year, the Leafs would have been in the playoffs. Guess your logic is wrong.

 

[TrueBlue86]

Last year we started out good right?

so one year is a trend?

the joke on the leafs before last year was we are always out of it then win meaningless 2nd half games to ruin our draft pick (or should i say the bruins' pick)

 

[onebighockeyfan]

We always play good first the past 2 seasons...well now this is the first half. If we can get around 32-35 and some confidence, we can not only make the playoffs but make a run to the cup

Thoughts?

To say the Leafs are cup contenders is simply insane, No way!

 

[onebighockeyfan]

so one year is a trend?

the joke on the leafs before last year was we are always out of it then win meaningless 2nd half games to ruin our draft pick (or should i say the bruins' pick)

Look back at the first 40 games last year and ask yourself how many of those we won we actually deserved to win. The puck was rolling for us, it was incredible. We won so many games where we were completely dominated there's no way we can get this lucky again.

 

[Mess]

Strongly disagree....Everything remains equal. Every other franchise plays the same shortened season. What does how the Leafs performed over 48 games last season got to do with anything? It has zero relevance. One can easily pick a 48 game section of the season where they were a lottery team too. Your logic does not compute.

The cream always rises to the top, but that takes time and a shortened season (smaller sample size) allows more teams to remain with the cream before settling at the bottom.

If you asked a professional athlete to run a 1/2 marathon verses a full marathon their odds of performing better in a shorter race would be increased, despite all the other factors being the same for all runners. The eventual winner of the race is not the one necessarily leading at the mid point of the race, but the one crossing the finish line at the end.

One is a sprint and the other a marathon race as they say hockey season often is, and when watching these types of races its not the marathon runners competing against Usain Bolt for the 100m dashes, because much like good hockey teams their results are based on being good/successful over a longer period of time and not all smaller segments.

 

[Fogelhund]

With the current lineup, this isn't a playoff team. Make some changes and trades, we'll see. I'm not entirely convinced that making the playoffs is the best thing for this franchise long-term. I think we need one more good draft pick, but it isn't as if I'll be cheering for tank nation. I want the team to do well, but I won't be broken up if we fail again. 2013/14 I think we should be a competitive team.

 

[Shimso]

We always play good first the past 2 seasons...well now this is the first half. If we can get around 32-35 and some confidence, we can not only make the playoffs but make a run to the cup

Thoughts?

Around 32-35 wins? Out of a 48 game season?

That would be 55-60 wins in an 82 game season.

Last year VAN, NYR and PIT led the league in wins. With 51.

 

[Fogelhund]

Around 32-35 wins? Out of a 48 game season?

That would be 55-60 wins in an 82 game season.

Last year VAN, NYR and PIT led the league in wins. With 51.

I think they are aiming for a 50 game season, but still... your point is correct either way, 48 or 50 games.

 

[Call of the loonie]

I'm reserving judgement because I truly believe anything can happen - especially in the East. But as it stands now, the Leafs are once again starting the season with about 20 question marks in their lineup.

Starting Goalie
Backup Goalie
Top six chemistry and depth
Energy line chemistry and depth
Defensive depth
PP
PK

I can't honestly put a check mark beside any of these. Just like last year and the year before. But a 92% svpct would fix a lot of it.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

The cream always rises to the top, but that takes time and a shortened season (smaller sample size) allows more teams to remain with the cream before settling at the bottom.

If you asked a professional athlete to run a 1/2 marathon verses a full marathon their odds of performing better in a shorter race would be increased, despite all the other factors being the same for all runners. The eventual winner of the race is not the one necessarily leading at the mid point of the race, but the one crossing the finish line at the end.

One is a sprint and the other a marathon race as they say hockey season often is, and when watching these types of races its not the marathon runners competing against Usain Bolt for the 100m dashes, because much like good hockey teams their results are based on being good/successful over a longer period of time and not all smaller segments.

With all due respect to fellow Leaf fans, I think the logic is failed.....Your analogy is horrible Mess..as they are clearly two different animals....sprinters and marathon runners...you might as well be comparing rugby to NFL football. Nothing alike. Usain Bolt is no threat to win a marathon race but clearly the fastest man in the world. Every team starts in the same place with the same number of games being played. Teams, players, coaches all perform differently in different situations. Anybody here ever consider the Leafs fell apart when the games became more meaningful as the season carried on? Injuries to key players could have a huge impact on a bubble team's fate. I don't even consider the Leafs a bubble team but the don't have the depth to win without Kessel or even Phaneuf in the lineup. Factors that really are not impacted by a shortened season. Everything is equal...the games all mean a bit more coming out of the gate.

Last shortened NHL season was 48 games in 1994-1995....Here is a summary of that season..

1995 NHL season

Duration January 20 – June 24, 1995
Number of games 48
Number of teams 26
Regular season
Presidents' Trophy Detroit Red Wings
Season MVP Eric Lindros (Philadelphia)
Top scorer Jaromir Jagr (Pittsburgh)
Playoffs
Eastern champions New Jersey Devils
Eastern runners-up Philadelphia Flyers
Western champions Detroit Red Wings
Western runners-up Chicago Blackhawks
Playoffs MVP Claude Lemieux (New Jersey)
Stanley Cup
Stanley Cup champions New Jersey Devils
Runners-up Detroit Red Wings


Please tell me ..other than Claude Lemieux winning the Conn Smythe trophy..what was different here...what was the anomaly that was created by a shortened season? Nothing.

 

[Morbo]

Define "good run".

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

With all due respect to fellow Leaf fans, I think the logic is failed. Every team starts in the same place with the same number of games being played. Teams, players, coaches all perform differently in different situations. Anybody here ever consider the Leafs fell apart when the games became more meaningful as the season carried on? Injuries to key players could have a huge impact on a bubble team's fate. I don't even consider the Leafs a bubble team but the don't have the depth to win without Kessel or even Phaneuf in the lineup. Factors that really are not impacted by a shortened season. Everything is equal...the games all mean a bit more coming out of the gate.

Last shortened NHL season was 48 games in 1994-1995....Here is a summary of that season..

1995 NHL season

Duration January 20 – June 24, 1995
Number of games 48
Number of teams 26
Regular season
Presidents' Trophy Detroit Red Wings
Season MVP Eric Lindros (Philadelphia)
Top scorer Jaromir Jagr (Pittsburgh)
Playoffs
Eastern champions New Jersey Devils
Eastern runners-up Philadelphia Flyers
Western champions Detroit Red Wings
Western runners-up Chicago Blackhawks
Playoffs MVP Claude Lemieux (New Jersey)
Stanley Cup
Stanley Cup champions New Jersey Devils
Runners-up Detroit Red Wings
NHL seasons

Please tell me oh wise ones..other than Claude Lemieux winning the Conn Smythe trophy..what was different here...what was the anomaly that was created by a shortened season? Nothing.

The same people arguing the Leafs fell apart when the games were meaningful would be the same people that argued the year before that they were only doing well the last half of the season because the other teams were mailing it in: in short they're the people that will reach for any argument no matter whether it can be substantiated or not.

The rest of what you posted above means next to nothing. Why? It isn't being stated that the top teams won't still be top teams or that top players won't still be top players. It is being stated that there will be teams that should be in the show that aren't and others that shouldn't be that are. Likewise, teams that should get a good draft pick won't and vice versa, simply because the sample size will not allow for the levelling out. The subject of the thread is making the playoffs. What does any of what you posted above have to do with that? You're talking about failed logic and introducing a bunch of stuff that has next to no bearing on the subject the logic is being applied to.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

The same people arguing the Leafs fell apart when the games were meaningful would be the same people that argued the year before that they were only doing well the last half of the season because the other teams were mailing it in: in short they're the people that will reach for any argument no matter whether it can be substantiated or not.

The rest of what you posted above means next to nothing. Why? It isn't being stated that the top teams won't still be top teams or that top players won't still be top players. It is being stated that there will be teams that should be in the show that aren't and others that shouldn't be that are. Likewise, teams that should get a good draft pick won't and vice versa, simply because the sample size will not allow for the levelling out.

Whatever. We will see eh? I'm sure you will have a plethora of new excuses ready and waiting for the Leafs less than inspiring season upon us. If Burke makes no changes, there really is no basis to believe this hockey team will make the playoffs other than bias blind faith. A team that has monumental collapses season after season clearly lacks fortitude, leadership and makeup to ever win anything. 47 points Mr. Eyeball.. What do you predict? Care to venture or you just want to straddle the fence again.

 

[beamer67]

I think it's still early to know how the leafs will do. We don't really know what the roster will be like. There will be some more changes, that's a given, but how they take shape and whether the changes will be effective won't be known till we are into 10 - 15 games. I hope to make the playoffs but I won't start making predictions till I see them play a few.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Whatever. We will see eh? I'm sure you will have a plethora of new excuses ready and waiting for the Leafs less than inspiring season upon us. If Burke makes no changes, there really is no basis to believe this hockey team will make the playoffs other than bias blind faith. A team that has monumental collapses season after season clearly lacks fortitude, leadership and makeup to ever win anything. 47 points Mr. Eyeball.. What do you predict? Care to venture or you just want to straddle the fence again.

Well at least you've given up on trying to determine whether the games were meaningful or other teams were mailing it in.

Not sure what fence you figure is being straddled (unless we're just making things up again) as I've offered forth my prediction of standings placement (with a 3 spot range) every year? This year I could see them 9 - 11. If they get goaltending, they'll be in.

 

[hockeyfanz*]

Well at least you've given up on trying to determine whether the games were meaningful or other teams were mailing it in.

Not sure what fence you figure is being straddled (unless we're just making things up again) as I've offered forth my prediction of standings placement (with a 3 spot range) every year? This year I could see them 9 - 11. If they get goaltending, they'll be in.

Oh so basically we are on the same page but you want to argue for the sake of it...Nice. Have a good day.

 

[robdicks]

Whatever. We will see eh? I'm sure you will have a plethora of new excuses ready and waiting for the Leafs less than inspiring season upon us. If Burke makes no changes, there really is no basis to believe this hockey team will make the playoffs other than bias blind faith. A team that has monumental collapses season after season clearly lacks fortitude, leadership and makeup to ever win anything. 47 points Mr. Eyeball.. What do you predict? Care to venture or you just want to straddle the fence again.

There is certainly a basis. The Leafs were a playoff team after 48 games last year. I really don't think they will make it, but with a shortened season, there is higher variability and there is a chance that they will make it. I don't see many making excuses for the Leafs, we're just not willing to write them off before the puck has dropped.

 

[ACC1224]

Shorten season will make it tougher.

They need a Goalie to have any chance to make it.

 

[ULF_55]

Will the Leafs make the playoffs this year? I think with a shortened season anything is possible.

I'm expecting playoffs this year.

Most of these players are Burke's, and now he has his hand picked coach.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Oh so basically we are on the same page but you want to argue for the sake of it...Nice. Have a good day.

Some of us are pointing out the basics of statistics and sample sizes and stating how you will likely see a few teams per conference in places they wouldn't be if the full season played out. The rest of us are arguing that because the top end stays the same that nothing else differs.

 

[SprDaVE]

It'll depend solely on goaltending. If Reimer or whoever else is in net can provide CONSISTENT goaltending, we'll be in the mix I think.

We also have a decent amount of players that have been playing in the lockout, mostly the young players. Hopefully that helps.