Can Ovi age as good as Selanne & Jagr?

[Uncle Scrooge]

I have no idea what is going through Ovi's mind, but I have a gut feeling he's not going to want to keep playing beyond his current contract if he's not one of the leagues best goalscorers, and that's extremely tough to do at 41 years of age.

Teemu and Jagr kept going even though they weren't superstars anymore.

 

[wetcoast]

No, but not because he lacks professionalism. Jagr and Selanne see the ice better so that part of their games were still there when the skating and goal scoring diminished.

Came here to say this and a simple yes or no option would have been better.

 

[Midnight Judges]

There is no rational basis to think Selanne was a better playmaker, passer, or had better vision than Ovechkin. Ovie is an amazing passer and he sees the ice as well as anyone. His assist totals are much lower than they could be because he is primarily deployed as a trigger man - which makes sense because he has the greatest shot of all time.

Despite leading the NHL in goals 9 times, Ovie's career adjusted assists per game is .59 to Selanne's .57.

Here's a decent example from the Cap's last game:

 

[bobholly39]

There is no rational basis to think Selanne was a better playmaker, passer, or had better vision than Ovechkin. Ovie is an amazing passer and he sees the ice as well as anyone. His assist totals are much lower than they could be because he is primarily deployed as a trigger man - which makes sense because he has the greatest shot of all time.

Despite leading the NHL in goals 9 times, Ovie's career adjusted assists per game is .59 to Selanne's .57.

Here's a decent example from the Cap's last game:

career assists per game? What about age to age? Wouldnt career significantly hurt Selanne if you include his later years?

 

[Midnight Judges]

career assists per game? What about age to age? Wouldnt career significantly hurt Selanne if you include his later years?

It's really only Selanne's last 110 games that bring down his APG from his career average.

 

[DomBarr]

Ovechkin has definitely aged better so far, but we will have to wait and see if he can match Selänne's PPG season as a 40 year old.

matching Selanne getting ppg at 40 is not his focus ...he has one statistical goal and that is 895 and if he hits that then what Jagr and Selenne did pale in comparison...

 

[Sun God Nika]

I have no idea what is going through Ovi's mind, but I have a gut feeling he's not going to want to keep playing beyond his current contract if he's not one of the leagues best goalscorers, and that's extremely tough to do at 41 years of age.

Teemu and Jagr kept going even though they weren't superstars anymore.

He will play till 43 if thats what it takes to break 894 which it probably wont but Ovi has his eyes on the prize to break a scoring record that can probably never be touched again.

 

[crosby87]

Glad you posted this because I was thinking, surely he has to be on track to be the best-aging player ever. I think people really have not yet grasped just how superhuman his 30s have been.

crosby is aging better

 

[ijuka]

Why would you not just have "No" instead of that loaded option?

 

[plattnacken]

Ovechkin just scored 50 goals at age 36. That's better than anything Jagr did after his years with the Rangers. So I'd say his prime has already passed the length of Jagr's.

Selanne had his last great season at age 40, so he's got the edge out of the 3 so far.

I don't really care about the years when they weren't top players anymore. Jagr is one of the best of all time, but all the years after New York did very little to his legacy in my book. I know others disagree.

 

[filinski77]

crosby is aging better

X'-aged season	Point finish - Ovi	Goal finish - Ovi	Point finish - Crosby	Goal finish - Crosby
30​	15th	1st	10th	33rd
31​	20th	13th	5th	21st
32​	11th	1st	12th (/gp)	34th (/gp)
33​	15th	1st	10th	13th
34​	18th	1st	17th (/gp)	37th (/gp)
35​	27th (/gp)	8th (/gp)
36​	16th	4th

One (of many different ways) of comparing how they've aged would be looking at their performance at each season into their 30's. Only age that Crosby clearly produced better was in their age 31 year old seasons.

Average out those finishes, and there's a negligible difference in point finishes, and a huge difference in goal finishes.

	Ovechkin	Crosby
Avg finish - points	16​	11​
Avg finish - goals	3​	28​

Crosby likely has a better 35 year-old season (he's looked great so far this season), but next year could very well be tough to match Ovi's 36 year-old season.

 

[NyQuil]

I say no but it has more to do with his lack of Selanne’s speed and Jagr’s supernatural ability to protect the puck.

Not his professionalism and discipline.

Depends if the Caps will keep him around as a PP weapon. Not sure I can see him playing for another team but stranger things have happened.

 

[AlainVigneaultsGum]

He already is.

 

[filinski77]

Ovi v. Selanne:
-> Ovechkin absolutely crushes Selanne from the 30-34 age range.
-> 35 and 36 are very close, but a slight edge to Selanne
-> After that, Selanne has a very impressive 40-year old season, but nothing else significant to really note.

My conclusion is that Ovechkin's gap in 30-34 is so huge, that Ovechkin would have to fall off to 3rd-liner production to not exceed the longevity into the 30's that Selanne had.

X'-aged season	Point finish - Ovi	Goal finish - Ovi	Point finish - Selanne	Goal finish - Selanne
30​	15th	1st	32nd (/gp)	23rd (/gp)
31​	20th	13th	73rd	33rd
32​	11th	1st	44th	33rd
33​	15th	1st	192nd	119th
34​	18th	1st
35​	27th (/gp)	8th (/gp)	13th	10th
36​	16th	4th	11th	3rd
37​			42nd (/gp)	12th (/gp)	*26GP for Selanne
38​			53rd (/gp)	25th (/gp)
39​			28th (/gp)	8th (/gp)
40​			8th	21st
41​			33rd	138th

 

[filinski77]

Ovi v. Jagr:
Ovechkin was pretty clearly better aged from 30-35 than Jagr was (although Jagr had the best absolute single season).

The analysis gets harder because Jagr missed those 3 years. Ovechkin's 36 year-old season is pretty clearly better than anything Jagr did from 36 or onward. And other than that Jagr really only has 2-3 seasons that are even noteworthy post-35. I agree that it's extremely unlikely that Ovi pulls out a 27th or 21st place point finish in his 40's, but I really don't think he'll need to do that at all to be considered a better-aged player than Jagr.

X'-aged season	Point finish - Ovi	Goal finish - Ovi	Point finish - Jagr	Goal finish - Jagr
30​	15​	1​	19​	12​
31​	20​	13​	15​	15​
32​	11​	1​	N/A
33​	15​	1​	2​	2​
34​	18​	1​	8​	37​
35​	27 (/gp)	8 (/gp)	33​	58​
36​	16​	4​
37​
38​
39​			73​	102​
40​			49​	35​
41​			27​	52​
42​			100​	118​
43​			21​	36​
44​			119​	142​

 

[crosby87]

X'-aged season	Point finish - Ovi	Goal finish - Ovi	Point finish - Crosby	Goal finish - Crosby
30​	15th	1st	10th	33rd
31​	20th	13th	5th	21st
32​	11th	1st	12th (/gp)	34th (/gp)
33​	15th	1st	10th	13th
34​	18th	1st	17th (/gp)	37th (/gp)
35​	27th (/gp)	8th (/gp)
36​	16th	4th

One (of many different ways) of comparing how they've aged would be looking at their performance at each season into their 30's. Only age that Crosby clearly produced better was in their age 31 year old seasons.

Average out those finishes, and there's a negligible difference in point finishes, and a huge difference in goal finishes.

	Ovechkin	Crosby
Avg finish - points	16​	11​
Avg finish - goals	3​	28​

Crosby likely has a better 35 year-old season (he's looked great so far this season), but next year could very well be tough to match Ovi's 36 year-old season.

Yes, so crosby is coming out on top with point production while also playing less games on avg per season. What are the PPG stats?
Every single GM picks crosby over ovechkin in their 30s besides maybe the caps gm.

 

[filinski77]

Yes, so crosby is coming out on top with point production while also playing less games on avg per season. What are the PPG stats?
Every single GM picks crosby over ovechkin in their 30s besides maybe the caps gm.

I used /gp stats anytime a significant (more than like 7 games) portion of the season was missed. So this accurately captures their performance relative to the league (especially since actual production trumps per game).

The real conclusion is that their point production is pretty much the same, while Ovechkin remains the significantly better goalscorer relative to the league.