Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[WalterLundy]

Except it doesn't make any sense to use hypothetical stats to argue against ACTUAL stats.

FACT: Using PPG, Crosby was as statistically dominant over his peers as McDavid. No scenarios, no pacing.

FACT: We have absolutely no idea what McDavid does if was drafted ten years earlier or if Crosby was drafted ten years later.

It makes sense you just don’t agree with it. Nor do you have to. This you should agree with though as it is a FACT. In his peak seasons (21 and 23) McDavid is more dominant over his peers than Crosby is in 2011 in the time he was actually active and in more games than Crosby. That is a fact. No adjustments needed and against better second place competition. I also never want to hear ever again that Crosby can put up 150 today. That is hypothetical and not a fact.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Except it doesn't make any sense to use hypothetical stats to argue against ACTUAL stats.

FACT: Using PPG, Crosby was as statistically dominant over his peers as McDavid. No scenarios, no pacing.

FACT: We have absolutely no idea what McDavid does if was drafted ten years earlier or if Crosby was drafted ten years later.

You keep ignoring that it's a half truth. You're being quite disingenuous 2 seasons where he played only 41 out of 82 and 22 out of 82 games. Yes there is much more value in being able to sustain that play over 82 and there is definitely no guarantee that Crosby would have. The only season where Crosby matched McDavid in peer dominance is 2014 where he won the Ross by 19.5%

There's an irony in using partial year PPG rates to argue dominance vs full seasons then turn around and claim using hypothetical stats doesn't make sense. The whole dominance argument for Crosby is hypothetical

 

[MadLuke]

In his peak seasons (21 and 23) McDavid is more dominant over his peers than Crosby is in 2011 in the time he was actually active and in more games than Crosby. That is a fact. No adjustments needed and against better second place competition.

2021: 25% above second place, 69% above 10th place is quite something.
2023: 19.5% above second place, 50% above 10th place is quite something.

Crosby 2011 at the january 5 timeline was 17.8% above second place and 57% above 10th place.

McDavid dominated his peer more and over (specially 2023) more games.

Stamkos playing with St-Louis was inferior to Drai playing with McDavid.

That said, this was a level of dominance, rarely seen:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

And we cannot really say thats because he played on a perfection line (Dupuis-Kunitz were a great match, Kunitz was a solid top 6 winger on any team, but nothing special)

When a bunch of elite player stack at 3.22-3.5 something and a single one jump at 4.93, compare that to middle of the pack among elite McDavid was:

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

The issue with Crosby, lot of it are an "hot-streaks" without reversing to the mean value and will always be unrealiable.

 

[MadLuke]

The only season where Crosby matched McDavid in peer dominance is 2014 where he won the Ross by 19.5%

Gap with number 2 is so volatile, 31% above number 10 scorer is not 2021 or 2023 McDavid (50% and 69%).

Should Malkin playing 80 instead of 60 games, scoring 95 pts and reducing Crosby lead to less than 10% have a significant impact on how dominant Crosby was or wasn't ?

 

[daver]

You keep ignoring that it's a half truth. You're being quite disingenuous 2 seasons where he played only 41 out of 82 and 22 out of 82 games. Yes there is much more value in being able to sustain that play over 82 and there is definitely no guarantee that Crosby would have. The only season where Crosby matched McDavid in peer dominance is 2014 where he won the Ross by 19.5%

There's an irony in using partial year PPG rates to argue dominance vs full seasons then turn around and claim using hypothetical stats doesn't make sense. The whole dominance argument for Crosby is hypothetical

Can you quote where I compared those two seasons? I compared their PPGs from Season #2 thru to Season #9.

There is an irony in you making up hypothetical posts to try to make a point.

 

[daver]

The issue with Crosby, lot of it are an "hot-streaks" without reversing to the mean value and will always be unrealiable.

The issue is that he got injured during his peak. He had two dominant seasons wiped away.

It is that much of a stretch to compare his 41 game season in 2010/11 with McDavid's 56 game season?

Jagr loses nothing with his 48 game Art Ross win in 94/95.

 

[WalterLundy]

The issue is that he got injured during his peak. He had two dominant seasons wiped away.

It is that much of a stretch to compare his 41 game season in 2010/11 with McDavid's 56 game season?

Jagr loses nothing with his 48 game Art Ross win in 94/95.

You can still take data from Crosby’s 2011 you just can’t compare his 41 to everyone else’s full seasons. You should compare from Oct 7 to Jan 5th to encompass when Crosby was active. It would be like comparing McDavid if he played 28 games of the 56 game season to guys who played all 56. Have to make it even. For example if McDavid only played his final 28 games in 2021 he would be at 57 in 28 games (2.04 ppg) which would skew it.

PPG margins:
2010-11 (Oct 7-Jan 5)
Crosby: 1.61
2nd place: 1.37 (18%)
5th place: 1.24 (30%)
10th place: 1.08 (49%)

2020-21:
McDavid: 1.88
2nd place: 1.50 (25%)
Closest non teammate: 1.38 (36%)
5th place: 1.30 (45%)
10th place: 1.16 (62%)

Crosby played in 469 of 622 possible games from 07-14 for 75%. McDavid played in 600 of 619 possible games from 17-24 for 97%. In the respective 8 year samples you selected McDavid led in ppg 5 times and Crosby 4 times. I also think this should matter very much.

 

[Professor What]

The issue is that he got injured during his peak. He had two dominant seasons wiped away.

It is that much of a stretch to compare his 41 game season in 2010/11 with McDavid's 56 game season?

Jagr loses nothing with his 48 game Art Ross win in 94/95.

The issue is that everybody else had to play the extra games in the years that Crosby got hurt. McDavid's 56 game season and Jagr's 48 game season were no shorter than anyone else. Everybody had the same amount of time to be hot or cold. You're accusing everyone else of making assumptions and what-ifs, but you're making assumptions and asking what-if Crosby would have continued at the same pace. Maybe he would have, but you can't prove it.

 

[MadLuke]

For me its that being a great leader becomes the feather in the cap for a star as they age and the production slips

Sakic-Toews-Crosby-Price-Gretzky-Messier got that great leader type of talk before the production slipped I feel like, cup winning stars captain tend to automatically have it.

 

[Professor What]

Sakic-Toews-Crosby-Price-Gretzky-Messier got that great leader type of talk before the production slipped I feel like, cup winning stars captain tend to automatically have it.

And if one goal had gone differently in game 3 or game 7, the people who are currently accusing McDavid of choking would be lauding him. It's amazing how fickle opinion can be.

 

[VanIslander]

Crosby once led the league in assists.
Twice in goals and assists.

He doesn't hold a candle to 9 or 99.

He has McDavid producing consistently in the regular season and postseason.

The gimpy Olympics has: Orr, gold; Lemieux, silver; Crosby, bronze.

Few dominate the autobahn. McDavid is on the road.

 

[DitchMarner]

And if one goal had gone differently in game 3 or game 7, the people who are currently accusing McDavid of choking would be lauding him. It's amazing how fickle opinion can be.

Crosby hasn't really does anything in the playoffs since 2018. Is that because he suddenly became a bad leader or because his team declined?

People should evaluate players primarily on skill and overall on-ice impact and evaluate General Managers on roster construction and coaches on whether they get the most out of players who are on a roster.

 

[GreatGonzo]

Crosby hasn't really does anything in the playoffs since 2018. Is that because he suddenly became a bad leader or because his team declined?

People should evaluate players primarily on skill and overall on-ice impact and evaluate General Managers on roster construction and coaches on whether they get the most out of players who are on a roster.

that’s a good point. Like, did Crosby suddenly lose his leadership capabilities from 2010-15? Then they add some key pieces to 2 back to back cup wins….is that because Crosby found his way again as their captain? Or was it the team was better…

 

[blogofmike]

Except it doesn't make any sense to use hypothetical stats to argue against ACTUAL stats.

FACT: Using PPG, Crosby was as statistically dominant over his peers as McDavid. No scenarios, no pacing.

FACT: We have absolutely no idea what McDavid does if was drafted ten years earlier or if Crosby was drafted ten years later.

"I will make my case without using scoring paces.

Now if you'll hear my argument, which is entirely based on PPG, or in other words, literal scoring paces..."

 

[Michael Farkas]

He was such a great leader that he actually had to distribute his leadership to all of his teammates just so they had the desire to get out of bed...



Objectively (!), you can see that he has the leadership of at least 20 men...

 

[blogofmike]

He was such a great leader that he actually had to distribute his leadership to all of his teammates just so they had the desire to get out of bed...



Objectively (!), you can see that he has the leadership of at least 20 men...

That's certainly something. No one would ever wear skates 2 sizes too small to honour Paul Coffey.

 

[Michael Farkas]

That's certainly something. No one would ever wear skates 2 sizes too small to honour Paul Coffey.

In all honesty, I'm actually guilty of that myself haha. I love skates to be uncomfortably tight and I got the idea from Coffey. At one point, it was two sizes down and three pairs of socks...it has now scaled to just one pair of socks.

 

[blogofmike]

In all honesty, I'm actually guilty of that myself haha. I love skates to be uncomfortably tight and I got the idea from Coffey. At one point, it was two sizes down and three pairs of socks...it has now scaled to just one pair of socks.

I guess destiny says that my fellow Michael and I must disagree on everything.

 

[VanIslander]

If your feet don't hurt, you're doing it wrong.

Hockey players go to sleep with their feet UP on the wall. No one reports about it. But it is true. Ask.

 

[wetcoast]

He still hans't won anything on a team level. Definitely a knack on his resume.

Sure but after his last 3 playoffs and his regular season resume up until now this knock really starts to look a bit silly.

I mean what if Joe Thornton and/or Dionne had a 3 year stretch in the playoffs like Mcdavid has had?

 

[VanIslander]

Jumbo Joe didn't have the mustard.
Dionne did, and showed it at times.

Anybody who would take Thornton over Dionne in a 7-game series please step away now. (Feel free to roar on the way out.).

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Unless he wins a cup he can never be considered

 

[wetcoast]

Crosby hasn't really does anything in the playoffs since 2018. Is that because he suddenly became a bad leader or because his team declined?

Sure looking at counting stats but it's a small sample size each year and Crosby has been unlucky and he was still driving play so the commnet isn't entirely true.

Also in 21-22 he was the best position player on the ice through game 5 when he got Troubad.

At the time the Pens had a 2-0 lead and then the Pens never fully recovered.

People should evaluate players primarily on skill and overall on-ice impact and evaluate General Managers on roster construction and coaches on whether they get the most out of players who are on a roster.

Agree 100%.

Crosby once led the league in assists.
Twice in goals and assists.

He doesn't hold a candle to 9 or 99.

He has McDavid producing consistently in the regular season and postseason.

The gimpy Olympics has: Orr, gold; Lemieux, silver; Crosby, bronze.

Few dominate the autobahn. McDavid is on the road.

The line between brilliance and madness is slight
and one wonders who is left and who is right.

 

[wetcoast]

The issue is that everybody else had to play the extra games in the years that Crosby got hurt. McDavid's 56 game season and Jagr's 48 game season were no shorter than anyone else. Everybody had the same amount of time to be hot or cold. You're accusing everyone else of making assumptions and what-ifs, but you're making assumptions and asking what-if Crosby would have continued at the same pace. Maybe he would have, but you can't prove it.

You are right we will never know but we can use probabilities here right?

I mean a lot of elite players have one or 2 of their top peak seasons at the ages of 23 and 24 and most of us saw how crosby was breaking out in 10-11 and sure maybe he slows down and only wins the Art Ross by 20ish points and is in the race for the Rocket.

We don't know for sure but most of us who follow hockey closely can make an educated guess here.

I fully expect McDavid, given his age and recent success, to pass Crosby eventually but it might be several more seasons for that unless one really favours peak over everything else.

 

[bobholly39]

Unless he wins a cup he can never be considered

Even if that were true - there's way too much talk of that. He's only 27 - it's extremely likely he'll win at least one.

This is the type of talk you should have about a player at age ~35 if he has no cup.

For what it's worth - I agree with the more reasonable stance of those saying playoff performance matters (ie his last 3 playoffs) more than team results (winning a cup in a 32 team league is hard). But I also acknowledge that if he were to not win a cup - it would certainly be held against him.

Here's one small bonus McDavid can get:

- world cup next year
- olympics following year

If he has a memorable performance and helps Canada win gold 2x as the clear best player, that'll count a lot for the "he has no cup" crowd