Can Connor McDavid break up the "big 4"?

[bobholly39]

Posting this on the history forum specifically to avoid gems like "Gretzky would be a 4th liner in today's league" and the likes.

I think it's generally accepted here that the greatest (and also, best) 4 players in history of hockey are Gretzky, Orr, Howe and Lemieux in some order. Sometimes there are disagreements on order, but large majority here has always agreed they are top 4.

Crosby/Ovechkin are finishing up fantastic careers, and yet the most I've ever seen anyone argue for them is #5 (if that). There's not been any serious discuss of them breaking into the big 4 ("maybe" in an alternate universe with no injuries to Crosby, and on the top end of projections, but obviously this hasn't happened).

How about Connor McDavid? Usually I'd be quickly dismissive and say "absolutely not, max he can do is #5", but I'm starting to wonder if it's worth looking at more seriously. All of the big 4 have done "special things", usually during peaks. You have:

- Gretzky 200+ points, 40+ point playoff runs, 92 goals, 163 assists, and I could list so many more
- Orr won art ross as a defenseman twice, conn smythes, all the Norris's, insane +/-
- Lemieux look at either 1989, 1993, 1996 even, or his 2 smythes, or simply his insane skill
- Howe - his 4 year peak in the 50s is fantastic (I have it at a level below other 3, but still #4 all time). And then you add his insane prime on top of it...

All of those accomplishmentsI listed are pretty much unparalleled. I don't think any player in history has even one accomplishment that rivals any of the above, let alone multiple.

Which brings me to McDavid. He will have 3 absolute gems in his career by the time this season is over:

- 2021 lockout season - 105 points in 56 games. At the time, I said it was a bit hard to place this historically due to the unusual circumstances. But considering how he's continued to dominate since, I think this one is really up there now looking back in terms of significance, and it does hold up nicely

- 2022 playoffs. Yes it was only 3 rounds, and yes they were swept in round 3 (by a superior Colorado team), but to me this is still an all-time playoff run. Through 2 rounds, this belongs in the all-time great runs (arguably on the level of some of Gretzky's best, or close).

- Which brings me to current season. Not done yet, but as of this posting he's on pace for 156 points and 68 goals. That's on pace to be 34 points above #2 for points, 10 goals above #2 for goals, and also #1 for assists. Would this stand alone as the best peak season all-time outside of the big 4? I personally think it would.

So - without overrating McDavid, but realizing he is in the middle of a special prime/career so far - is it possible he could break into the big 4 by the time his career ends? What would it take for you for him to do that?

Or do you think - #5 is the highest he could realistically reach all-time?

Click to read more...

 

[ResilientBeast]

So for me I have Gretzky/Howe ahead of Orr and Lemieux because of their absurd longevities.

For me, McDavid would need at least 2 cups and then 4-5 more peak seasons (maybe not quite this dominant) to threaten Lemieux's place IMO.

Assuming he wins the Hart, and Art Ross this year through age 26

AST: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 3
Hart: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 5
Points: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2
Assists: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3
Goals: 1, 2, 6, 6, 7, 10

If he can add another 2/3 Harts and Art Ross Trophies his regular season would start to look like it belongs amongst the big 4.

 

[Voight]

Don't see why Howe's peak would be below the other3. Especially Lemieux.

McDavid at this point is likely to finish with more Art Ross' than anybody but Gretz, more Harts than Lemieux, likely more Pearsons than anyone but Gretz.

I look forward to when he turns 30 just to see how much hes accomplished by then, his early 20s were a HHOF career on their own.

 

[The Panther]

In terms of player comparisons across eras (not my favorite thing to begin with), one thing that I've kind of thrown out in the salary cap era is Cup counting. Like, @ResilientBeast said McDavid would need 2 Cups and then a handful more of peak-level seasons to threaten Lemieux. The peak level seasons I agree with, but "2 Cups"?

Not to overstate it, but it is harder than at any time in history right now to win 1 Cup, let alone two. I mean, since 2004, how many superstar players have won multiple Cups? I guess, Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov....

Of course, if the given star player does win many Cups, it's great, and assuming his performance was key to these, it adds a lot to his legacy.

But I just don't think we can realistically expect the same championship achievement of most superstar players today that we might have done in the 70s or 90s.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

It's possible for sure, but he has a long way to go. He's just now FINALLY reached possible Lemieux level of play, now he needs to maintain it.

 

[The Panther]

It's possible for sure, but he has a long way to go. He's just now FINALLY reached possible Lemieux level of play, now he needs to maintain it.

Just now? Disagree. His 2021 season was already at this same level.

 

[Voight]

In terms of player comparisons across eras (not my favorite thing to begin with), one thing that I've kind of thrown out in the salary cap era is Cup counting. Like, @ResilientBeast said McDavid would need 2 Cups and then a handful more of peak-level seasons to threaten Lemieux. The peak level seasons I agree with, but "2 Cups"?

Not to overstate it, but it is harder than at any time in history right now to win 1 Cup, let alone two. I mean, since 2004, how many superstar players have won multiple Cups? I guess, Crosby, Malkin, Kucherov....

Of course, if the given star player does win many Cups, it's great, and assuming his performance was key to these, it adds a lot to his legacy.

But I just don't think we can realistically expect the same championship achievement of most superstar players today that we might have done in the 70s or 90s.

Kane.....

 

[jigglysquishy]

After 2008 I thought Ovechkin was a lock for 60 goals many more times. Never hit it again. In 2010, I thought he hit a new level and would repeatedly win Art Rosses. Never again.

In 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 I thought Crosby would hit a run like Jagr 1996-2001. Never happened.

I thought Stamkos would hit 60 again. Never happened.

Who here predicted Jagr to have his 2002-2004 run? Or Lemieux to retire in 1997?

How many people thought Matthews wouldn't hit 40 this year?

I hope he pulls it off, but injuries happen. Kucherov happened. We saw last year he was at risk of losing to Huberdeau until game 75.

He's clearly peaking below Gretzky/Orr/Lemieux. But he's contending Howe for 4th greatest peak ever.

What he does from here on out is a complete guessing game.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

So - without overrating McDavid, but realizing he is in the middle of a special prime/career so far - is it possible he could break into the big 4 by the time his career ends? What would it take for you for him to do that?

Or do you think - #5 is the highest he could realistically reach all-time?

My feeling about McDavid is if he had a normal Big 4 career, some cups, a best on best world championship or two, a fair amount of individual hardware... I would personally think that he would deserve consideration as to being in his own class, above the Big 4, based on those things and overall talent which is unprecedented.

'Consideration', anyway.

Then again, these kinds of chats are much more data driven here, so I would not be surprised (again) if my own 'feeling' changed when shown side by side comparisons as is common on this board.

Right now he's hard to fit into the usual equation because he hasn't had that level of success so far.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

Anyone actually watching this guy play the game?

He's simply amazing.

Can he break up the big 4? Absolutely.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

so who wants to initiate the inevitable mcdavid vs mario comps?

 

[JackSlater]

I'd say that he needs a Frankenstein argument where various different things are pieced together. I also suspect that his only realistic chance is against Lemieux using the things that people usually use in player comparison. Gretzky peaked too high for McDavid to realistically reach, McDavid will never have the trophy case that Gretzky has, and Gretzky's raw numbers will always be beyond McDavid. Orr also peaked too high, and he has the novelty of being a defenceman and consensus best ever at that position. Howe has a peak that McDavid can (maybe has) reached, but his longevity is freakish and I would not bet on McDavid matching it. Howe also brings more variety in what he offers than does Gretzky or Lemieux or McDavid. I do not think it is realistic for McDavid to match any of those three given where his peak looks likely to end up.

Lemieux is a different story. I cannot see McDavid reaching Lemieux's peak, but everything else is in play for McDavid to surpass Lemieux. It's not hard to see McDavid ending up with a more full trophy case than Lemieux, a much fuller career with a much greater number of full seasons, and superior raw totals. A huge part of Lemieux's case is based on how impressive his highlights are and how impressive he was when he was on his game - this is the only thing that keeps Lemieux in discussions with Gretzky, and access to Lemieux's highlights (but not Orr's for the most part or Howe's) is the main reason that many people now consider him #2 of all time. McDavid is a spectacular player to watch, and everything he does is recorded and accessible in clear video. If McDavid ends up with a bigger trophy case, better career totals, more career value, plus a comparable or superior highlight reel... I can see many fans of the future putting him ahead of Lemieux. The most interesting thing will be what people do if he ends up without a Stanley Cup, as I'd already have McDavid as the clear best player in hockey history whose team has not won a Stanley Cup.

For me personally I do not see McDavid ending up among the top 4 but I think he has a good chance to create McDavid Island in the #5 spot. I have no rooting interest in McDavid or Edmonton but to me he's nearly must see TV this season, and I have not seen that since Lemieux.

 

[PrimumHockeyist]

so who wants to initiate the inevitable mcdavid vs mario comps?

I will. To me they are very similar in two ways. Most talented players I've seen, and I've seen all of the good ones since Orr's rise, I missed Howe's.

What really strikes me about the two, similarity wise, is how it seemed to take a while before Mario had a match lit under him. I see the 87CC as a major turning point that way, with Gretzky playing a big role in helping Mario later tap his true potential.

From the moment I saw McDavid step on the ice against St. Louis, I thought, "This guy is going to have let himself take over kind of like Mario did." In young Mario's case, the rub seemed to be that he might be a bit lazy although it was probably more because the game came so easily to him. In young Connor's case it was thinking, and the matter of how to deal with never-seen-before talent.

I see this season as proof of what I've been thinking all allong. CD is scoring at a rate he could probably have hit at least a few years ago. A 65-70 goal per season scorer is NOT coming close to his potential if he scores 40 something a year. This season is not about maturation and developmental curves. It's about giving oneself permission to apply unprecedented talent which was likely denied earlier in the name of being a good team player

He can do that and more. Going forward, Connor needs to be thinking about shooting for 60 per year. If he doesn't, and fails to win a cup while averaging 40 something, he may regret not having given himself permission to take over.

 

[Beau Knows]

I think he has a chance to make it a big 5. Hard to see him surpass any of the 4, but he could create enough of a gap over everyone else to warrant expanding that group.

 

[GMR]

It's possible for sure, but he has a long way to go. He's just now FINALLY reached possible Lemieux level of play, now he needs to maintain it.

I'd take early 90's Lemieux over the current McDavid.

 

[The Macho King]

If his playoffs continue to be like last seasons, I don't give a shit if he never makes a Finals, much less wins a Cup. I think his peak and trophy case is already in the discussion of best non-Big 4 player, so now it's seeing how his prime shapes up for me.

 

[MadLuke]

I think more and more there is not much of a big 4 that exist.

There Gretzky on his own top tier.

Then a big 3, can he join that big 3, absolutely yes.

The eye test his incredible and a given, it is to an absurd level obvious that he is not only dominant but can do in a regular fashion play of the year of other players.

Does that spectacle and deluge of goals (and this season powerplay) lead to a team winning cups ?

He is still with 3.32 goal for per 60 minutes at 5/5 and just a 52.25 goal for % a question mark in some ways..

Could be unlcuky obviously, but +5 at 5v5 ? All that said for only outscoring helping your team by 5 goals over 60 games ?

2011 Crosby was +17 in 40 games playing with Pascal Dupuis-Kunitz, peak Ovechkin was completely destroying the opposition scoring twice than them. No need to talk about how much Gretzky-Orr-Jagr-Lindros-Forsberg did it (or Marchand-Bergeron have been for a superbe amount of time now)

Could be bad luck or he will do like last playoff and turn it up and achieve dominance again in the playoff, but we have yet to see a season in which McDavid team outscore the opposing team when he is on the ice by an impressive amount since his somophore season.

He just need to redo what he did in the last playoff 3-4 time (just need to go far, no need to actually win it x amounts of time), to start to challenge the big 3.

Orr-Lemieux body of work are short enough that he could beat them by quite a margin in that regard, peak is already up there

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

I think more and more there is not much of a big 4 that exist.

There Gretzky on his own top tier.

Then a big 3, can he join that big 3, absolutely yes.

The eye test his incredible and a given, it is to an absurd level obvious that he is not only dominant but can do in a regular fashion play of the year of other players.

Does that spectacle and deluge of goals (and this season powerplay) lead to a team winning cups ?

He is still with 3.32 goal for per 60 minutes at 5/5 and just a 52.25 goal for % a question mark in some ways..

Could be unlikely obviously, but +5 at 5v5 ? All that said for only outscoring helping your team by 5 goals over 60 games ?

2011 Crosby was +17 in 40 games playing with Pascal Dupuis-Kunitz, peak Ovechkin was completely destroying the opposition scoring twice than them. No need to talk about how much Gretzky-Orr-Jagr-Lindros-Forsberg did it (or Marchand-Bergeron have been for a superbe amount of time now)

Could be bad luck or he will do like last playoff and turn it up and achieve dominance again in the playoff, but we have yet to see a season in which McDavid team outscore the opposing team when he is on the ice by an impressive amount since his somophore season.

He just need to redo what he did in the last playoff 3-4 time (just need to go far, no need to actually win it x amounts of time), to start to challenge the big 3.

Orr-Lemieux body of work are short enough that he could beat them by quite a margin in that regard, peak is already up there

The absolute pile of crap defense and goaltending he's played with factors into that as much as anything.

2011 Crosby was on the ice with Letang and MAF.
McDavid has been on the ice with Nurse and a merry-go-round of Talbot/Koskinen/Smith/Skinner/Campbell

Also Ovechkin didnt dominate 5v5 like you imply he did. His 5v5 GF v GA is the same as McDavid's. Running between +5 to +15 year over year.

McDavid has the chance to join the Big 4, whether he will is a big question mark. Biggest thing he needs his health. After that he's gotta add at least 3 more Hart and Ross wins and at least 2 Cups with 1 Smythe

 

[The Macho King]

I think more and more there is not much of a big 4 that exist.

There Gretzky on his own top tier.

Then a big 3, can he join that big 3, absolutely yes.

The eye test his incredible and a given, it is to an absurd level obvious that he is not only dominant but can do in a regular fashion play of the year of other players.

Does that spectacle and deluge of goals (and this season powerplay) lead to a team winning cups ?

He is still with 3.32 goal for per 60 minutes at 5/5 and just a 52.25 goal for % a question mark in some ways..

Could be unlikely obviously, but +5 at 5v5 ? All that said for only outscoring helping your team by 5 goals over 60 games ?

2011 Crosby was +17 in 40 games playing with Pascal Dupuis-Kunitz, peak Ovechkin was completely destroying the opposition scoring twice than them. No need to talk about how much Gretzky-Orr-Jagr-Lindros-Forsberg did it (or Marchand-Bergeron have been for a superbe amount of time now)

Could be bad luck or he will do like last playoff and turn it up and achieve dominance again in the playoff, but we have yet to see a season in which McDavid team outscore the opposing team when he is on the ice by an impressive amount since his somophore season.

He just need to redo what he did in the last playoff 3-4 time (just need to go far, no need to actually win it x amounts of time), to start to challenge the big 3.

Orr-Lemieux body of work are short enough that he could beat them by quite a margin in that regard, peak is already up there

I mean... +/- is a bad stat for a reason. The Oilers have trotted out the corpse of Mike Smith for his prime and a D corps where I think I could anchor the third pair. Moreover he does a lot of damage on the PP (which is fine).

He's bad defensively but he's not so bad as to be the cause for his team's defensive woes.

You mentioned Ovi and that's a good comparison. Do you think Ovi was ever more than an indifferent checking forward? Yet he still ended up around +40 one season. Because they had solid goaltending and more competent D.

 

[MadLuke]

Also Ovechkin didnt dominate 5v5 like you imply he did

Peak Ovechkin was a monster in that regard, he just dropped quite early. 2008-2010 Ovechkin had a 61.84 goal for, his 2010 season had one of the highest since it is recorded

He was at 5v5
2008: +29
2009: +11
2010: +45
2011: +15

Ovechkin having to play with Backstrom was obviously a big plus

McDavid has been on the ice with Nurse and a merry-go-round of Talbot/Koskinen/Smith/Skinner/Campbell

The skaters he played the most this year at 5v5
Hyman
Nurse
Draisaitl
Ceci

Crosby was
Kunitz
Dupuis
Letang
Orpik

During his 2011-2013 peak where he dominated quite a bit Crosby top 4 most frequent teammate were
Kunitz
Dupuis
Martin
Orpik

Is goal for were 118 to 55, or 68.2%

Someone that would be on the same step than Lemieux-Howe-Orr does not need that much help to outscore the opposition.

His that really significantly worse than (specially considering how well they go together him and Drai, he play a lot of time with an Hart-Art Ross player)

He did get a 90.1% save percentage when he is on the ice, but his team 91.2 is not that terrible, the median being 91.5 or so.
He does not need to be particularly good league wide in that regard if it is true that support his low, but at least among his teammates.

My feeling like he achieved to do in the playoff last year, he will do it again, he his to go for is play to never translate in actual winning. If he keep this up for an other 3-5 years

You mentioned Ovi and that's a good comparison. Do you think Ovi was ever more than an indifferent checking forward? Yet he still ended up around +40 one season. Because they had solid goaltending and more competent D.

I do not think defense/offense distinction is obvious in hockey.

Peak Ovi was a shoot generation and puck possession force it seem, it is about outscoring the opposition regardless of how you do it.

There is a way to play offence that can lead to less goals against regardless of how competent you are in your own zone or the effort given to get back to it, the Sedins cycling style for example.

McDavid did completely beat his opposition during the playoff last year, with similar crap, could be low sample size, but could indicate that it is possible.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Lemieux and Orr are far from untouchable seeing as how they both have massive weaknesses on their resumes.

The answer is clearly yes IMO.

Then again I didn't believe in there being a big 4 to begin with on the basis that putting anyone on Gretzky's level - in terms of greatness - is not equitable to Gretzky seeing as how he has more assists than Lemieux has points despite playing in the same era.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Some post age 30 resumes

Howe
Hart - 1,1,1,2,3,3,3,3
Art Ross

Gretzky
Hart - 2
2x Art Ross
1993 Cup run
1991 Canada Cup

Lemieux
Hart - 1,2,3
2x Art Ross

Howe is the only one with an insane post 30 resume. But McDavid is so very clearly behind Gretzky and Orr age for age.


In regards to even strength production, McDavid does have some huge years.

2018, leads all players by 27% at EVP.

2021, leads all players by 28% at EVP.

Also lead in 2017 and 2019. One point back this year.

 

[Midnight Judges]

You mentioned Ovi and that's a good comparison. Do you think Ovi was ever more than an indifferent checking forward? Yet he still ended up around +40 one season. Because they had solid goaltending and more competent D.

Eh, the Capitals never had a good blue line until 2015 when Orpik and Niskanen arrived.

During Ovie's peak they had a mishmash of injured/washed up veterans and guys whose NHL careers were nearly over or never should have existed to begin with (Schultz, Poti, Jurcina, Sloan, Pothier, Morrison, Erskine, Brashear, Corvo, etc.). They also had Mike Green who was brilliant offensively and a disaster in his own end. Carlson and Alzner came up at the end of Ovie's peak and they were a huge improvement.

Goaltending was also not good with Theodore and Neuvirth. Rookie Varlamov was an improvement but it wasn't until Holtby that they got consistently good goaltending.

 

[authentic]

I think more and more there is not much of a big 4 that exist.

There Gretzky on his own top tier.

Then a big 3, can he join that big 3, absolutely yes.

The eye test his incredible and a given, it is to an absurd level obvious that he is not only dominant but can do in a regular fashion play of the year of other players.

Does that spectacle and deluge of goals (and this season powerplay) lead to a team winning cups ?

He is still with 3.32 goal for per 60 minutes at 5/5 and just a 52.25 goal for % a question mark in some ways..

Could be unlikely obviously, but +5 at 5v5 ? All that said for only outscoring helping your team by 5 goals over 60 games ?

2011 Crosby was +17 in 40 games playing with Pascal Dupuis-Kunitz, peak Ovechkin was completely destroying the opposition scoring twice than them. No need to talk about how much Gretzky-Orr-Jagr-Lindros-Forsberg did it (or Marchand-Bergeron have been for a superbe amount of time now)

Could be bad luck or he will do like last playoff and turn it up and achieve dominance again in the playoff, but we have yet to see a season in which McDavid team outscore the opposing team when he is on the ice by an impressive amount since his somophore season.

He just need to redo what he did in the last playoff 3-4 time (just need to go far, no need to actually win it x amounts of time), to start to challenge the big 3.

Orr-Lemieux body of work are short enough that he could beat them by quite a margin in that regard, peak is already up there

I think as a Leafs fan I can vouch that Jack Campbell probably doesn't help his +/-

 

[MadLuke]

I think as Leafs van I can vouch that Jack Campbell probably doesn't help his +/-

That obviously fair enough when comparing league wide but every Oilers had to deal with the same goaltending.

#	Name	Pos	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	Birthdate	Age	Birthplace	Hght	Wght
25	Darnell Nurse	D	65	6	27	33	58	19	1995-02-04	27	Hamilton, ONT	6.04	221
18	Zach Hyman	L	64	29	43	72	35	14	1992-06-09	30	Toronto, ONT	6.01	211
21	Klim Kostin	C	42	10	8	18	55	12	1999-05-05	23	Penza, Russia	6.03	215
5	Cody Ceci	D	65	1	11	12	22	10	1993-12-21	28	Ottawa, ONT	6.02	210
97	Connor McDavid	C	65	54	70	124	26	10	1997-01-13	25	Richmond Hill, ONT	6.01	193
73	Vincent Desharnais	D	20	0	4	4	21	9	1996-05-29	26	Laval, PQ	6.06	21

Peak Mario was on team where it was easy to be -22, -35 with enough ice time with many of the games being Frank Peitrangelo, Steve Guenette, Wendell Young in goals.

Still, his line was a dominating force of nature:

#	Player Name	Pos.	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Birthplace	Age
66	Mario Lemieux	F	76	85	114	199	100	41	11	12	7	19	16	PQ: Montreal	22
12	Bob Errey	L	76	26	32	58	124	40	11	1	2	3	12	PQ: Montreal	23
44	Rob Brown	R	68	49	66	115	118	27	11	5	3	8	22	ONT: Kingston	20
33	Zarley Zalapski	D	58	12	33	45	57	9	11	1	8	9	13	ALTA: Edmonton	20
6	Jim Johnson	D	76	2	14	16	163	7	11	0	5	5	44	MN: New Hope	2

The others center of the teams were like -12, -25 and -37 that year, Bob Errey was a marginal nhler before that season, Brown had a lot of talent but not a 2 way force by any mean.

It is not fair maybe, but to get to be considered to be at the same level of helping a team outscore and win hockey game than peak Bobby Orr/Mario was, I think many would want for him to show it.

And specially in a context without great teammate-goaltending-system, great tend to have did it.

20 years old Gretzky was +41 on a team that was quite the minus team without him on the ice (Messier was -12) with terrible below league average .861 save percentage goaltending from a combinaison Eddie Mio, Ron Low and Gary Edwards. The year after he was +80 on a team with no one else above +45

If you want to be in that type of player talk, your team should score significantly more goals than the other team because of you, specially if you get mediocre and not terrible goaltending like the oilers are this year.