Can a Canadian professional hockey league thrive?

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Not at the risk of getting a better deal to play in Europe. Last year we had a world junior played in the summer that no one wanted to watch because it wasn’t during hockey time.

Sorry, I guess I was vague - I personally don't think it would work at all, but to have any chance, an alternative league would need to be summer-based in Canada.

I'd theme the whole league's branding around that fact.

The problem is hockey barely has an offseason. Even in the MJHL (Junior A) - Centennial Cup was a few weeks ago, this was the week of the MJHL Draft, and I already have golf tournaments scheduled for late-August, which marks the return of players and the beginning of camp.

Then you throw in NHL Draft and Free Agency to July 1 - This league I think would be a terrible idea would have three months to actually play.

Maybe you could do something like a Rugby Sevens format - So you have one weekend in eight cities that submit a team, and it's 3 on 3 shorter games, with multiple each week - mini-tournaments with points for where you place, then one final tournament at the end of the season, where the top four play a round-robin and the top two after that play a championship game.

Nine week season, and each city gets a weekend in the spotlight.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The large CHL markets aren't getting the TV money they could be getting. They could easily out earn CFL money for starters.





Or they'd need their owners to choose a bigger league.


No one is suggesting putting the leafs and halifax together.

The big market earners would likely be Quebec City, Kitchener-Waterloo or Hamilton, regardless of whether or not you put a team in Toronto/Montreal or Vancouver. Halifax would be one of the weakest teams financially, but would get a big boost from airing games in the Atlantic timezone/newfoundland timezone.

The CFL gets about 40 million a year from TSN. You could imagine a C-League maxing out at around 2-3 times that amount. Due to more games and more relevance in Eastern Canada.

So roughly 10 million per team in tv revenue. Maybe 20-30 million in other revenue streams, in markets like QC and Hamilton.

You'd end up with a league where middle six nhl forwards would be treated as superstars. You'd have a base roster of AHL calibre players with 3-5 guys who could make it in the NHL.

The issue is that you keep just making up numbers and then deriving all logic off that baseline assumptions of numbers that you are pulling out of thin air.

There will be no base roster of AHL caliber players, the AHL caliber players will be playing in the AHL because it is the NHL's farm league, from which they have a chance at getting called up from. The guys who could make it in the NHL will be playing in the NHL. Period. Full stop.

A league that runs concurrently with the NHL/CHL will be underwhelming because it is in direct competition. Your C-League markets are small and will likely keep supporting the Junior teams there. The NHL markets will continue to direct their attention to the NHL. You might be able to get a season ticket holder base, but they will be paying small dollars. If you run it in the Summer, you are now outside of Hockey Season, at the only time of year when people can really enjoy outside weather consistently in a place with cold winters. The hypothetical TV deal just seems based on nothing. There is a reason summer broadcasting is always underwhelming.

If such a League were to run, it will be a League that is ECHL/SPHL caliber, full stop. You seem to have a tough time grasping this and cling to irrelevant comparisons between the Canadian Football League and Major League Soccer. Junior Hockey by and large fills the "itch" for mid-sized Canadian cities, they will certainly not abandon it for Minor Pro Hockey. Such a thing could perhaps exist if they can figure out a way to make the travel working logistically, but nobody is going to make $2-3 million to play in this League.

 

[Lady Stanley]

The issue is that you keep just making up numbers and then deriving all logic off that baseline assumptions of numbers that you are pulling out of thin air.

And then you fill the conversation with a bunch of baseless assumptions.

There will be no base roster of AHL caliber players, the AHL caliber players will be playing in the AHL because it is the NHL's farm league, from which they have a chance at getting called up from. The guys who could make it in the NHL will be playing in the NHL. Period. Full stop.

A league that runs concurrently with the NHL/CHL will be underwhelming because it is in direct competition. Your C-League markets are small and will likely keep supporting the Junior teams there.

Unless the owners of those teams decide to relocate them. Which is the point. You don't need a 30 team c league.

We have KCW/London/Hamilton/QC all markets who could support something above the CHL.

All 4 of which have near fringe abilities to support a major league team.

The NHL markets will continue to direct their attention to the NHL.

There's nothing direct about the major league team being 2-3 hours away. The majority of the ares I'm talking about are either leafs/habs fans.

I've never met anyone in London with any conflcit supporting both the Knights and the Leafs. In fact it's more the opposite, because the two teams are so well defined, people don't feel like they have any option in following something else.

You might be able to get a season ticket holder base, but they will be paying small dollars.

A cheap ticket to a knights game is $25, in a filled 10ish thousand seater arenas.

That's 250, grand a night. 10 million off the year from the gate in an 82 game season. Not including merch/tv contracts.

If you run it in the Summer, you are now outside of Hockey Season,

Do you continually make things up? I said specfiically regular season would start in September, which is basically Canadian fall.

at the only time of year when people can really enjoy outside weather consistently in a place with cold winters.

So the MLS? CFL? Jays are all just high on glue?

The hypothetical TV deal just seems based on nothing. There is a reason summer broadcasting is always underwhelming.

It's based on the CFL contract, and the geographic footprint of the contract.

If such a League were to run, it will be a League that is ECHL/SPHL caliber, full stop.

So you're making the statement that QC would have the same revenue stream as the Newfoundland Growlers are you putting that into writing?

You seem to have a tough time grasping this and cling to irrelevant comparisons between the Canadian Football League and Major League Soccer.

And yet you seem to think the ECHL/AHL are the key ones, when they have obvious problems.

Nobody in Halifax cares about the Hershey drips in Kentabama. You've never been in one of these markets if you don't get that's one of the main reasons Canadians don't care about those minor leagues.

Junior Hockey by and large fills the "itch" for mid-sized Canadian cities,

Which is why QC is trying to get an NHL team? These medium sized markets have a demand for something better. QC isn't alone in this, and it's actually one of the slower growing economies of the markets I mentioned.

they will certainly not abandon it for Minor Pro Hockey.

If the arena owner pushes you out you can always have the choice of going to a smaller market. But when we're talking about team owners wanting better usage of Arenas like the Videodrome arena your point is lost.

Such a thing could perhaps exist if they can figure out a way to make the travel working logistically,

The Newfoundland Growlers are in the ECHL, do the math.

The majority of these teams would be between QC and Windsor. heck Viarail is a fast and easy option for the desperate. Again this is a perfect example of why American crossover leagues don't work.

but nobody is going to make $2-3 million to play in this League.

You just seem to be completely unaware of these teams revenue streams.

QC could go tomorrow and do exactly that.

Again all you got to look at is the purchase of the Montreal Allouettes.

 

[BMN]

So what you're really asking is "Would the ECHL work if every franchise was relocated to Canada?"

Because here's the thing: In your scneario, the ECHL and SPHLs of the world don't go away. They still exist but you're adding this Canadian league on top of it. To get ECHL quality play, you'd pretty much either need to buy the whole league wholesale (to replicate your cited Newfoundland Growlers situation) or put 'em all out of business in some manner not involving developmental ties which......I mean, OK, good luck with that.

Otherwise, I bring it all back to my post on p. 1: Can a Canadian professional hockey league thrive?

 

[Golden_Jet]

And then you fill the conversation with a bunch of baseless assumptions.


Unless the owners of those teams decide to relocate them. Which is the point. You don't need a 30 team c league.

We have KCW/London/Hamilton/QC all markets who could support something above the CHL.

All 4 of which have near fringe abilities to support a major league team.



There's nothing direct about the major league team being 2-3 hours away. The majority of the ares I'm talking about are either leafs/habs fans.

I've never met anyone in London with any conflcit supporting both the Knights and the Leafs. In fact it's more the opposite, because the two teams are so well defined, people don't feel like they have any option in following something else.



A cheap ticket to a knights game is $25, in a filled 10ish thousand seater arenas.

That's 250, grand a night. 10 million off the year from the gate in an 82 game season. Not including merch/tv contracts.




Do you continually make things up? I said specfiically regular season would start in September, which is basically Canadian fall.



So the MLS? CFL? Jays are all just high on glue?






It's based on the CFL contract, and the geographic footprint of the contract.




So you're making the statement that QC would have the same revenue stream as the Newfoundland Growlers are you putting that into writing?



And yet you seem to think the ECHL/AHL are the key ones, when they have obvious problems.

Nobody in Halifax cares about the Hershey drips in Kentabama. You've never been in one of these markets if you don't get that's one of the main reasons Canadians don't care about those minor leagues.


Which is why QC is trying to get an NHL team? These medium sized markets have a demand for something better. QC isn't alone in this, and it's actually one of the slower growing economies of the markets I mentioned.



If the arena owner pushes you out you can always have the choice of going to a smaller market. But when we're talking about team owners wanting better usage of Arenas like the Videodrome arena your point is lost.



The Newfoundland Growlers are in the ECHL, do the math.

The majority of these teams would be between QC and Windsor. heck Viarail is a fast and easy option for the desperate. Again this is a perfect example of why American crossover leagues don't work.


You just seem to be completely unaware of these teams revenue streams.

QC could go tomorrow and do exactly that.

Again all you got to look at is the purchase of the Montreal Allouettes.

Like poster said, you pull numbers out of then air.
You missed the whole point, of what poster said, most players will have been drafted and are property of NHL teams.

You’d be choosing from players that are undrafted, and without a team tryout. So players that might consider playing Europe would be the group you’re selecting from.

 

[WarriorofTime]

So the MLS? CFL? Jays are all just high on glue?

It's gonna blow your mind when you realize that Soccer, Baseball and Football are all played... outside.

 

[Lady Stanley]

Like poster said, you pull numbers out of then air.

Arenas sizes/ticket sales, population sizes etc are not out of thin air.

Like this is the part I know neither of you have even wiki'd some of these numbers.

You missed the whole point, of what poster said, most players will have been drafted and are property of NHL teams.

And the vast majority of the people are released by age 25, and more or less aware they ain't getting the big dollars. Financial concerns move into the picture when you start seeing 30 on your radar.

You’d be choosing from players that are undrafted, and without a team tryout. So players that might consider playing Europe would be the group you’re selecting from.

You seem to be fixating on people aged 18-22. You can point to ever roster who have players that aren't gonna be getting call ups.

Logan Stanley being an obvious example of a person who might prefer to play closer to home for more money now with a set future. You're also acting as if it is binary, that a guy has to commit to a to the AHL or be forbidden from playing in the C-league. Plenty of players who aren't getting opportunities in the NHL might see a higher wage as a preferred option to bumming around in the AHL.

It's gonna blow your mind when you realize that Soccer, Baseball and Football are all played... outside.

It might blow your mind that a lot of people spend large volumes of money to get out of the heat in summer. There's a reason theatres make all their money in summer.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Yes, we could take a massive risk, invest 100s of millions of dollars for a sub-par hockey league that would at best be 5th(?) best league in the world (if that), but if we succeed, we might reach the dizzying heights of "Most franchises don't lose money and TSN has something to show on Summer weeknights"

There just isn't the upside to make this idea work.

 

[KevFu]

There will be no base roster of AHL caliber players, the AHL caliber players will be playing in the AHL because it is the NHL's farm league, from which they have a chance at getting called up from. The guys who could make it in the NHL will be playing in the NHL. Period. Full stop.

See, this is where I think the niche is... Organizations (and fans, hence this site's NAME) place a massive emphasis on YOUTH. The sports world goes gaga for "younger the better" when it comes to prospects and draft picks. People talk about guys for years and tons of them never pan out.

If you're 25+ and playing in North America but not for an NHL team, you're either one of the best AHL players in a loaded organization, an enforcer/goalie OR or your career is about to end.

Look at the 2016 Draft: 211 players selected. 67 have played 50+ NHL games, and 44 players have appeared in the NHL but less than 50 games.

There's 100 players that have never appeared in the NHL. They're all between 25 and 27 years old, so chances are, they're not going to make it to the NHL ever. Where are THEY playing NOW?

They could be playing in the ECHL or in Europe... but 72 of the 2016 Draft guys I'm talking about are from USA/Canada. And then there's guys not drafted.

A league where prospect busts, or guys who never got a shot, go to play when they're 25-30 could totally work.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Look at the 2016 Draft: 211 players selected. 67 have played 50+ NHL games, and 44 players have appeared in the NHL but less than 50 games.

There's 100 players that have never appeared in the NHL. They're all between 25 and 27 years old, so chances are, they're not going to make it to the NHL ever. Where are THEY playing NOW?

You should probably factor out the European guys that will surely play in Europe (where many never left) rather than a sub-AHL North American league.

Then another group just retire because they can make more money with an education and aren't going to indefinitely chase the grind when the writing is on the wall.

So you're left with the hanger-ons, from North America, and Canada at that point because the Americans may opt for the ECHL/SPHL. And some of those guys will opt for Europe for likely better wages and to see the world or what not.

People should be realistic about what such a League would look like. The reality is probably not a very good one. Which is fine and all because such Leagues can exist in the pro sporting world, but it's not one where there will be massive money poured in. And in this case, it's trying to enter into what is already a pretty crowded marketplace that isn't really filling any void.

The OP himself is hardly serious and just rabble rousing. Their original proposal was for the 7 Canadian NHL Franchises to essentially breakway because the NHL makes it impossible to win the Cup. Obviously that will never happen, so we're left with a very minor pro league in small cities to try and fill a niche that doesn't really need filling outside of the mind of one delusional poster.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Arenas sizes/ticket sales, population sizes etc are not out of thin air.

Like this is the part I know neither of you have even wiki'd some of these numbers.



And the vast majority of the people are released by age 25, and more or less aware they ain't getting the big dollars. Financial concerns move into the picture when you start seeing 30 on your radar.




You seem to be fixating on people aged 18-22. You can point to ever roster who have players that aren't gonna be getting call ups.

Logan Stanley being an obvious example of a person who might prefer to play closer to home for more money now with a set future. You're also acting as if it is binary, that a guy has to commit to a to the AHL or be forbidden from playing in the C-league. Plenty of players who aren't getting opportunities in the NHL might see a higher wage as a preferred option to bumming around in the AHL.


It might blow your mind that a lot of people spend large volumes of money to get out of the heat in summer. There's a reason theatres make all their money in summer.

Players can’t leave their AHL teams until their contract expires and are no longer a property of an NHL team. Plus would likely make more money as an import in Europe.

 

[Lady Stanley]

Players can’t leave their AHL teams until their contract expires and are no longer a property of an NHL team.

And how long are those contracts?

At what age do they expire? Care to guess?

Plus would likely make more money as an import in Europe.

Crank out the numbers, if you're so confident.

 

[Golden_Jet]

And how long are those contracts?

At what age do they expire? Care to guess?



Crank out the numbers, if you're so confident.

Lol @ crank out the numbers, you’ve been asked repeatedly in here for that. Yet have failed to provide any. Other than check wiki.

 

[ColinM]

Which is fine and all because such Leagues can exist in the pro sporting world, but it's not one where there will be massive money poured in. And in this case, it's trying to enter into what is already a pretty crowded marketplace that isn't really filling any void.

Bingo. The question isn't "Could a Canadian Professional Hockey League Thrive?" The question is "What needs to collapse in order for a Canadian Professional Hockey League to Thrive?"

If every Canadian NHL Team outside of Montreal and Toronto relocated, leaving Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa to join a break away Major Junior league that involved Halifax, Quebec, Kitchiner, London, and Saskatoon then maybe we could talk. But at least 2 unlikely events need to take place first in order for that to happen.

 

[Lady Stanley]

Lol @ crank out the numbers, you’ve been asked repeatedly in here for that. Yet have failed to provide any. Other than check wiki.

What numbers are you trying to dispute? Arena sizes, market sizes etc are all out in the open.

None of this is reliant on hypothetical arena construction etc.

 

[Lady Stanley]

Bingo. The question isn't "Could a Canadian Professional Hockey League Thrive?" The question is "What needs to collapse in order for a Canadian Professional Hockey League to Thrive?"

If every Canadian NHL Team outside of Montreal and Toronto relocated, leaving Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, and Ottawa to join a break away Major Junior league that involved Halifax, Quebec, Kitchiner, London, and Saskatoon then maybe we could talk. But at least 2 unlikely events need to take place first in order for that to happen.

You need 6ish of those markets

Hamilton-KWC-London-QC are must haves.

The whole thing is conditional on arena owners kicking the CHL teams out of their biggest arenas. You're making it something it is not.





Victoria-Halifax-Saskatoon are next in line.

Edmonton-Winnipeg are never happens.

Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver are the harder markets to figure out, and they couldn't be requirements for this to happen.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You need 6ish of those markets

Hamilton-KWC-London-QC are must haves.

The whole thing is conditional on arena owners kicking the CHL teams out of their biggest arenas. You're making it something it is not.





Victoria-Halifax-Saskatoon are next in line.

Edmonton-Winnipeg are never happens.

Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver are the harder markets to figure out, and they couldn't be requirements for this to happen.

Why not Winnipeg? Prime candidate, in your books.

 

[KevFu]

You should probably factor out the European guys that will surely play in Europe (where many never left) rather than a sub-AHL North American league.

Then another group just retire because they can make more money with an education and aren't going to indefinitely chase the grind when the writing is on the wall.

So you're left with the hanger-ons, from North America, and Canada at that point because the Americans may opt for the ECHL/SPHL. And some of those guys will opt for Europe for likely better wages and to see the world or what not.

People should be realistic about what such a League would look like.

I thought I DID carve out the Europeans with the "72 of 100" thing.

I definitely agree with you on the "be realistic" aspect of it. What we're really talking about is a Canadian rival to the ECHL.

And if the ECHL "works" as a hockey business where owners make enough money to keep doing it, then I see no reason why the same thing that's happening in 28 US markets (a lot of which are pretty unexpected places to find a hockey team!) can't happen in hockey-mad Canada.

I get the fan investment aspect of it: The AHL hasn't "worked" in places like Hamilton or Quebec City because the fans aren't invested in a second-rate pro league when they have a world class junior league. It's the romance of youth: If you can't get Sidney Crosby visiting your building as an NHL player... it's better to see him BEFORE he's an NHL player. The AHL guys are just the junior teams a couple years later, without the stars. I get that.

But the three biggest issues facing a rival ECHL in Canada are: (a) Arenas to play in and sell tickets; as renting a place could cut into profits; (b) player acquisition and scouting; and (3) getting fans to actually care about a low-level pro league.

And I think all three things can be addressed in a very simple way. Three words: Juniors Alumni League.

Not one for each of the 60 teams, brand your ECHL rival league as THAT and do your best to put local alumni on teams in the area; have the junior team owners be the league owners (eliminating rent) and bringing in revenue when their buildings aren't in use, and maybe you're on to something.

 

[WarriorofTime]

You need 6ish of those markets

Hamilton-KWC-London-QC are must haves.

The whole thing is conditional on arena owners kicking the CHL teams out of their biggest arenas. You're making it something it is not.





Victoria-Halifax-Saskatoon are next in line.

Edmonton-Winnipeg are never happens.

Toronto-Montreal-Vancouver are the harder markets to figure out, and they couldn't be requirements for this to happen.

I love how your whole theory relies on getting a Canadian Football League sized television deal... built entirely on markets deemed too small for the Canadian Football League.

 

[Lady Stanley]

Why not Winnipeg? Prime candidate, in your books.

Look I'm being polite, you continually make it your mission to shut down conversations with the same closed minded thinking.

The speed iin which you jump to your conclusions with no thought behind them makes it pretty clear you're never reading with your responses.

You're getting a dopamine kick for the attention you get by being a unthinking wall.

Winnipeg has a team, if they lose their team by some magic you'd have a point.

 

[ColinM]

You need 6ish of those markets

Hamilton-KWC-London-QC are must haves.

The whole thing is conditional on arena owners kicking the CHL teams out of their biggest arenas. You're making it something it is not.

What would be the incentive for a group of arena owners to collectively do that?

For what it is worth I do agree that this is possible. But that does not mean that it is likely.

 

[Lady Stanley]

I love how your whole theory relies on getting a Canadian Football League sized television deal... built entirely on markets deemed too slow for the Canadian Football League.

You get that the smaller markets in the CFL are the ones that perform?

The only reason they don't have teams in halifax/qc/kitchener/waterloo is because football isn't big in the East. In addition the cost of building an arena from scratch versus existing large arenas.

The CFL gets a half million per game.

A C league getting the same value would be getting roughly 4 times the annual revenue with 9 teams due to more games being played.

And again I said it'd be a target.

Existing arenas makes the point of entry very low for arena owners.

We're talking about multiple billion dollar bids plus an arena for Ottawa in a smallish NHL market.

We're talking about ownership groups not requiring expansion fees, nor new arenas. The requirement would be a 5-10 year commitment at a certain agreed payroll.

 

[Lady Stanley]

What would be the incentive for a group of arena owners to collectively do that?

Same reason they want to own any sports franchise.

The supposed roadblock is the idea that you either have minor league teams or pro teams.

Canada isn't the US there's zero reason to think we have overlapping sports culture in terms of minor and major league differences.

CFL is in opposition to that model, the CPL is in opposition to that model.

The biggest failure of American minor leagues is that they don't represent the best on best in a given part of Canada.

For what it is worth I do agree that this is possible. But that does not mean that it is likely.

I don't think I ever said it is likely, in the sense that I think it is happening now.