C Will Smith - San Jose Sharks , NHL(2023, 4th, SJS)

[Boxscore]

Carlsson has Jacket written all over him. If Columbus passes on him, they'll regret it. Stylistically, prime Carlsson will be a hybrid of Elias Lindholm, Nicklas Backstrom, and Auston Matthews. I don't care if Smith ends up in the Gaudreau or Marner mold, you take Carlsson here and sleep well at night. The only gamble the Jackets should consider is drafting Michkov at 3 (based on BPA) but he doesn't meet their timeline, positional needs, or risk-factor so I don't see that happening.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Smith had dinner with the CBJ Friday I believe.

Fantilli wednesday and Carlsson Thursday.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

To be fair, there are only really 2 guys to consider and it isn't like he could have done the same stuff with the other. Certainly could be leaning that way, but it isn't like he blew the other guy off in favor of Smith, just Smith was the only one to focus on this weekend.

I will say, it is indicative of the Sharks believing there is a true drop off after Smith to guys like Leonard, Reinbacher, and others of that tier.

I think the reality, at least where NHL teams are concerned, is Smith is in the same tier as Michkov, Carlsson, and Fantilli.

 

[Postulates]

I think the reality, at least where NHL teams are concerned, is Smith is in the same tier as Michkov, Carlsson, and Fantilli.

Yes and if he was 6'2" he would go #2

 

[themelkman]

I think the reality, at least where NHL teams are concerned, is Smith is in the same tier as Michkov, Carlsson, and Fantilli.

I dont even know if they have Michkov in that tier. Sure doesnt sound like hes going top 5 right now

 

[Deleted member 339941]

 

[glasgow26]

I’ll be shocked if the Sharks don’t take him at 4.

 

[Fatass]

I’ll be shocked if the Sharks don’t take him at 4.

Sharks take Smith. Makes good sense. Habs get Michkov.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Sharks take Smith. Makes good sense. Habs get Michkov.

Habs take Leonard. Michkov drops.

 

[TheUnusedCrayon]

Nah just actually studying and breaking down his game. His habits defensively, his tracking and angling all needs major work. It takes time to develop those aspects, he’s not very good in 1v1 defensive situations. I’m not saying there are character concerns, I’m saying knowing the type of kid he is away from the rink and work ethic wise makes a big difference in projecting him long term. None of his deficiencies are related to his talent. But there are some major deficiencies that can hold him back from reaching his true potential. I’m of the belief those things will improve, but you never know. He’s a high end talent but there is risk associated with taking a kid like this.

Also to note is he is an extremely risky playmaker and play driver. A lot of things he's getting away with at this level would result in goals because people will anticipate a lot of his overly ambitious plays. You love to see his level of creativity, but there's a lot of his creative moments where you go, "Well he's lucky that panned out because that's an easy transition the other way if that player read that play better..."

He's brilliant in moments, way too risky in others and as you stated has deficiencies in those areas. Some of his creativity is gonna be coached out of him too because they're not gonna tolerate risky last man back or neutral zone plays so his point totals are gonna be affected by that as well.

 

[ponder]

Also to note is he is an extremely risky playmaker and play driver. A lot of things he's getting away with at this level would result in goals because people will anticipate a lot of his overly ambitious plays. You love to see his level of creativity, but there's a lot of his creative moments where you go, "Well he's lucky that panned out because that's an easy transition the other way if that player read that play better..."

He's brilliant in moments, way too risky in others and as you stated has deficiencies in those areas. Some of his creativity is gonna be coached out of him too because they're not gonna tolerate risky last man back or neutral zone plays so his point totals are gonna be affected by that as well.

Agreed, but it’s not too concerning IMO, very common with young star players, especially in the NTDP. For example, the same could be said about Jack Hughes and Trevor Zegras in their NTDP days.

 

[Castle8130]

Smith is a human highlight reel. Smith, Leonard, Perreault, Willander, and Minnetian is an insane freshmen addition to a team led by Cutter Gauthier lol. They have more high-end talent than Michigan this year.

 

[TomKosto]

Sharks take Smith. Makes good sense. Habs get Michkov.

Molson won't draft Michkov...

 

[rahad]

Habs take Leonard. Michkov drops.

Big mistake by the habs, if they skip on Michkov.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

He’s not even close to Drai or Malkin type and never will be

McDavid, Mackinnon, Barkov, Matthews, Pettersson, Drai, Hintz, Thompson, Smith reminds you none of them.
Hughes is getting into superstar tier yet he’s far superior skater than Smith which gives him a massive edge

I don’t consider Aho a true superstar and he’s a superior overall player in comparison to Smith, superior skater with a far better engine.

There just really aren’t smaller franchise C’s whose games are build like Smiths. Far easier to buy him as a superstar winger than franchise C going up against Barkov/Matthews/Thompson and company in the East

This is where I'm at too. The projection here is tricky.

I always find myself impressed when I watch him but the concerns are clear, not the biggest guy, not the greatest skater, not the best shooter, undeveloped defensive game. 100% pure playmaker which is kind of rare.

I was thinking Barzal without the elite skating, but the caveat is Barzal's skating is such a big part of his game - so what does that player look like without it? Zegras isn't bad either but I think Smith also isn't as fast though perhaps has more defensive potential.

It's interesting that Leonard takes so much in zone D responsibility b/c Smith has such great awareness that I think he can be pretty good on the backcheck, and even in zone he seems willing.

It's a tough one. He could be a playmaking winger for all anyone knows or a true play-driving center, don't see him a franchise player at the level of Jack Hughes but I could see him being better than Zegras if he develops his defensive game.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Big mistake by the habs, if they skip on Michkov.

Possibly. I just have a feeling they like what Leonard brings to the table and how he would fit in with their forward group. That said, Hughes has said they will draft BPA so that could very well be Michkov. Shoot, Michkov may need even be available at 5.

This is where I'm at too. The projection here is tricky.

I always find myself impressed when I watch him but the concerns are clear, not the biggest guy, not the greatest skater, not the best shooter, undeveloped defensive game. 100% pure playmaker which is kind of rare.

I was thinking Barzal without the elite skating, but the caveat is Barzal's skating is such a big part of his game - so what does that player look like without it? Zegras isn't bad either but I think Smith also isn't as fast though perhaps has more defensive potential.

It's interesting that Leonard takes so much in zone D responsibility b/c Smith has such great awareness that I think he can be pretty good on the backcheck, and even in zone he seems willing.

It's a tough one. He could be a playmaking winger for all anyone knows or a true play-driving center, don't see him a franchise player at the level of Jack Hughes but I could see him being better than Zegras if he develops his defensive game.

I don't think you have the right read on Smith at all and honestly question how much you've seen him.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

I don't think you have the right read on Smith at all and honestly question how much you've seen him.

Well this isn't very helpful. Been watching U18s & USNTDP games lately catching up on the draft.

Where exactly am I getting so far off track?

 

[BB88]

This is where I'm at too. The projection here is tricky.

I always find myself impressed when I watch him but the concerns are clear, not the biggest guy, not the greatest skater, not the best shooter, undeveloped defensive game. 100% pure playmaker which is kind of rare.

I was thinking Barzal without the elite skating, but the caveat is Barzal's skating is such a big part of his game - so what does that player look like without it? Zegras isn't bad either but I think Smith also isn't as fast though perhaps has more defensive potential.

It's interesting that Leonard takes so much in zone D responsibility b/c Smith has such great awareness that I think he can be pretty good on the backcheck, and even in zone he seems willing.

It's a tough one. He could be a playmaking winger for all anyone knows or a true play-driving center, don't see him a franchise player at the level of Jack Hughes but I could see him being better than Zegras if he develops his defensive game.

Even with his skating I can’t call Barzal a true franchise 1C.

I just honestly can’t think of a single franchise 1C in this league from Smiths fold and how he could survive going against the best bigger C’s in this league.

Maybe he gets there but if/when he gets he’ll be the 1st and only in the NHL

 

[William H Bonney]

It's my favorite time of the year on HF when the hot takes start coming in hot and heavy on prospects based on watching YouTube clips in lieu of following a player for 2 seasons.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

Smith is a human highlight reel. Smith, Leonard, Perreault, Willander, and Minnetian is an insane freshmen addition to a team led by Cutter Gauthier lol. They have more high-end talent than Michigan this year.

willander is going to BU not BC

 

[Castle8130]

willander is going to BU not BC

Oh darn.... that would've been fun to see. Those colleges need to merge. I mix them up too often lol

 

[NTDP]

It's my favorite time of the year on HF when the hot takes start coming in hot and heavy on prospects based on watching YouTube clips in lieu of following a player for 2 seasons.

The hot takes started because some scout service made a 5 minute video just tearing him apart. I think this whole 05 group at the NTDP has had one of the better turnarounds from the U-17 year to U-18. I didn't think they'd be as dominant of a team if you asked me late November of 2021 that they would have had the overall success a year later.

Watching them against the college teams especially was pretty fun. Smith was vaulted into my top 5 after the U-18 five nations. And he just stayed consistent after that.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I’ve seen plenty of examples of Smith pitching in down low, covering the slot, and shoulder checking. He’s just not physical but he’ll support battles when necessary. Kinda nitpicking an elite scorer if you asked me. Every NTDP top line I ever covered except for Norris in 2017 played 100 percent of their shifts with offense in mind. Matthews-Tkachuk, Keller-Bellows, Farabee-Wise-Wahlstrom, Hughes-Caufield, Zegras, Bordeleau, Lucius-Pastujov, Cooley, and now Smith. This is an NTDP requirement as long as the horses can make it happen.

Smith’s responsibility is to attack but he also creates his own opportunities and pressures points. Leonard obviously outworks everyone but that’s his job. Perreault rarely engages in his own zone but he’s an elite talent on offense.

Look at Hughes. Just hit 99 points. Nobody in New Jersey cares about his defense.

In the North Dakota game, some dude Albrecht or something like that drilled Smith after a breakaway after knocking out Moore. Smith had two gorgeous assists and could have had five more. He’s a tough kid even if he thinks offense most of the time. Always has a target on his back.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

If Smith was 6'3 i'd take him over Carlsson easily. If Smith was the same size as Carlsson the difference to me is Smith has a great shot & great goal scoring ability while still having like about the same IQ/Vision but you cannot teach size and Carlsson's game will translate better.

 

[GoJackets1]

Also to note is he is an extremely risky playmaker and play driver. A lot of things he's getting away with at this level would result in goals because people will anticipate a lot of his overly ambitious plays. You love to see his level of creativity, but there's a lot of his creative moments where you go, "Well he's lucky that panned out because that's an easy transition the other way if that player read that play better..."

He's brilliant in moments, way too risky in others and as you stated has deficiencies in those areas. Some of his creativity is gonna be coached out of him too because they're not gonna tolerate risky last man back or neutral zone plays so his point totals are gonna be affected by that as well.

This sounds a lot like Kent Johnson, which is exactly why I hope the Jackets take Carlsson. Not a knock on Smith, but I just feel CBJ doesn’t need two centers in this mold. One large, 2-way guy still with offensive skills, and one skill-first guy sounds great to me.