Who cares what he would look like now. I do think Smith would struggle against men right now because of his physicality. Carlsson is the most physically developed of all the top-5 prospects (for all the “Fantilli is a grown man” comments, he’s actually quite skinny). Carlsson is certainly without a doubt more effective now. But drafting an NHL prospects is about more than what the prospect is at 18, it’s about projection.
I think the Carlsson vs. Smith debate is an interesting one. I would certainly take Carlsson ahead as it is, but I certainly see why a person might have Smith higher.
Smith has such a good offensive brain, the best in the draft after Bedard and Michkov. He’s so good at seeing all the ways a play can develop and executing what he thinks is the best one. I think as he matures he’ll develop a better sense of what the optimal play is in any situation, but he definitely has a degree of offensive thinking that both Fantilli and Carlsson lack. Both of them can be a little one-dimensional at times in terms of how they behave with the puck on their stick, whereas you never know what Smith is going to do next.
I think an interesting question becomes, if Carlsson were 6’0” like Smith (or Smith were 6’3” like Carlsson), how would the general consensus see them? I think Carlsson is the better straight ahead skater by a decent margin while Smith is the more elusive skater. Both have excellent hands, but it’s hard to judge who is more successful at dangling because of the disparity in league strengths (Smith dangles more successfully, but Carlsson plays against much better defenders and has shown some degree of success dangling them). Smith has a much better shot. Playmaking and passing are a wash (Smith is more deceptive and has a greater success rate of “elite” passes, but Carlsson is better at making the textbook “right” pass and is somewhat less prone to turnovers). Carlsson is better defensively, but even while playing center at the WC he still kind of defends like a stereotypical winger; good positionally, solid at retrieving, a little prone to blowing the zone for offense especially at the U20 level. Neither have high motors or a high level of activity off the puck (Carlsson is a little better, but nowhere near the golden standard of Benson). Carlsson has proven that he can execute average NHL level plays against men; Smith has proven he can execute elite talent-level plays against his own age group. Truly, I think this could go either way, though I think most of us are a little risk-adverse and would (I think rightly) prefer the certainty of Carlsson.
