C/W Marat Khusnutdinov (2020, 37th, MIN)
- Thread starter Pavel Buchnevich
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This guy must be the most posted non-lottery player on these boards with a huge draft projection range, from late 1st to 4rth round pick. His footage shows that he can be dynamic and I like how he is a rare Russian forward who has good 2-way potential, and I also like hearing about his strong leadership and work ethic. He sort of reminds me of a Sebastian Aho in speed, size, position, and 2 way threat.
I wouldn't mind if my Ducks finally drafted a Russian like him with our late 1st or 2nd round pick, but if they would be willing to go outside their norms to draft a small player, they would probably go with a North American like Bordeleau, Brisson, Niederbach... I don't even know if we have scouts in Russia and highly doubt we've visited MHL games much at all.
I wouldn't mind if my Ducks finally drafted a Russian like him with our late 1st or 2nd round pick, but if they would be willing to go outside their norms to draft a small player, they would probably go with a North American like Bordeleau, Brisson, Niederbach... I don't even know if we have scouts in Russia and highly doubt we've visited MHL games much at all.
Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
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Huh...I never thought about it before, but that's a pretty good comp.
Especially since Aho went late 2nd, and then became a top 10 player in the draft, and you could make the case for top 5. That'll be Marat.
You're probably actually right. I'm sure they watched some top 10 projected prospect games to make sure they aren't being completely ignorant.
They took 14 Russians from 93-01, and since then they've taken 1 and that was in 09'.
Appears to be a bias...
He has a ton of Aho in his game. I mentioned that on the Canes board a couple weeks ago. Less of a finisher and more of playmaker but similar high-IQ, counterattacking style that has made Aho such a good forechecker and PKer.
Marat would need to continue developing like Aho did which is among the best in his class. But I think his ceiling is a similar level. I hope the Canes take a long look at him at #19 depending on who is there.
emptyNedder
Not seeking rents
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Not sure how he is more of playmaker. Both played 44 games in their respective U20 league. Aho had 34 assists, Khusnutdinov had 25. I get that there is more to playmaking than assists, but hard to say MK is ahead of Aho.
Many watch Khusnutdinov and are super impressed. I can appreciate that. He may play similar to Aho. I can appreciate that. But no way he is more talented as a playmaker. By the way, Aho did that in his 16-year-old season.
Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
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- 29,737
emptyNedder
Not seeking rents
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He specifically said "more of a playmaker" and "I think his ceiling is a similar level." You don't have to be Chomsky to make the connection that if they have a similar ceiling and Aho is more of a finisher, then MK by default is a better playmaker—because if he isn't then they don't have a similar ceiling.
Kevin Musto
Hard for Bedard
- Feb 16, 2018
- 23,045
- 29,737
Yeah, as in Marat's play style is that he's a playmaker more so than a finisher. What about that is so hard to understand?
Apples and oranges to try and directly compare Marat's MHL production to Aho's Jr SM-Liiga stats. My assessment is my eye test comparing what I've seen of Ago over the past 5 years to Khusnutdinov's single 17 year old season.
A large part of putting up points as a pass-first guy is also playing with talent good enough to actually finish your plays. Marat played mostly on the 3rd line, PK1, and PP2. Again it makes it difficult to directly compare to Aho's stats. Just a stylistic comparison overall.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Aho is 6’0. Khusnutdinov is 5’9. What am I missing?
Is Getzlaf similar to McDavid?
Is Getzlaf similar to McDavid?
Khusnutdinov is one of the younger players in the draft. Have you measured him personally?
In any case - is Brayden Point (5'10") similar to Aho? Yes. Is Marchessault (5'9") a similar player stylistically? Yes. A couple of inches of height doesn't make a player Getzlaf vs McDavid. There are plenty of big guys that play small and plenty of small guys that play big. Aho competes hard but he doesn't play like a power forward. Physical size is less and less important in an evolving NHL.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
I don’t actually mind when people say they play similar. What makes no sense is saying Aho is similarly a small forward. He’s not. He’s 6’0.
emptyNedder
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I stated I appreciate the stylistic comparison. It is fully supported by the eye-test. However, "ceiling" isn't about style it is about production. As I stated in an earlier post, this is quite reminiscent of the Moneyball scene when scouts are adamant that a baseball prospect "looks" great because he is a 5-tool player and the ball explodes off his bat. Billy Beane wonders why he is a .230 hitter.
I would agree that MK could have Marchessault's ceiling (except for the 1st VGK season when Marchessault, W. Karlsson, Haula, Smith all produced 20-25% more than in any season before or after).
To recap: I think it is reasonable to call MK's ceiling a hyper-competitive 60-point player; based on his production in junior leagues and international competition it is a stretch to say his ceiling is 85 points in the NHL.
I don't see it what baseball has to do with a pass-first center. Khusnutdinov had the highest pass completions and high danger pass completions per 60 that has been tracked so far by Scouching. So I'd say he is "hitting" pretty high based on the stats for that style of player. As I stated before, the thing about playmaking centers is that they require finishers and PP time to generate those points. Khusnutdinov had bottom-6 wingers and PK1 time.
I'm not sure you could find one single resource back in 2015 that said Aho's ceiling is an 85 point Center. If that was the case the Canes should have been considering him at #5 overall and not the 2nd round. That's the thing with projections on ceilings, it's foolhardy to place absolute limits on players.
What we can say about Marat and Aho as comparisons is that they play very similarly in all 3 zones, they are both among the youngest players in the Draft, and both were late risers who developed well during their Draft year. Aho continued that upward developmental path to this day. Marat has maybe a 5% chance of following such an extreme upward trend but that potential exists IMO.
emptyNedder
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Thanks for the details—because I am not trying to be difficult. I have enjoyed many of the Scouching videos and think he has terrific insights.
What baseball and pass-first centers have in common is that ultimately results matter. Take Aho's season with 34 assists in the U20. Neither player who scored tons of goals on that 13-14 team has proven to be much of a scorer since. Aho made them better. The statistics don't show Marat doing that on any team—U20 or international. My guess is that Scouch is in the early phases on analytics regarding passing. So this is where I can make a comparison to baseball. Early on analysts would track % of line drives and think that a hitter with a high percentage of line drivers but average batting average was snake bit. Since then they have refined what they measure. Marat might be the best passer among prospects, but there is also the possibility that if other things were measured more accurately (say speed at which the player receiving the pass is moving, distance receiver has to reach along the ice to control the pass, location of the nearest opponent, etc.) then the good but not elite production might actually be the product of good but not elite skills.
I hope you are correct and that the Canes take MK and he is another Aho. That would be a great outcome. However, what I hope and what I see in the statistics don't always match.
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To me your production argument boils down to the same situation Svechnikov was in as a Rookie. Svech only scored 37 points in 82 games - so he must be a 5-tool player only hitting 0.230, right? If Svechnikov was a great player he would have actually produced more? Clearly that would be a bad take after viewing this year.
I just don't agree with that simplistic of a view. How a player is deployed does matter. Anyone watching Svechnikov in his Rookie year saw that he played almost all of his minutes with bottom-6 talent (Martinook/Wallmark/McGinn) and had limited PP opportunity. And while many outside fans looked at Svechnikov's 37 points and were thinking "this guy isn't all that great" - Canes fans knew he was primed to explode given the right opportunity. I see Khusnutdinov in a similar boat - with bottom-6 minutes playing mostly PK - and I project a higher potential output/ceiling in the future. Just my view on it after watching a handful of his MHL games on Youtube.
emptyNedder
Not seeking rents
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I obviously haven't done a good job explaining myself. Based on the information available on EliteProspects, MK has not been a top producer in any situation the past two seasons. He has been solid—very comparable to Ponomaryov, Guschin, Pashin, though usually MK trailed when taking a points-per-game view. Those are all good prospects.
Of the players you compared him too (Aho, Point, Marchessault) only Marchessault wasn't the best producer in one or multiple situations (league play, international tourneys, international play). That is why I agreed that Khusnutdinov has a ceiling similar to Marchessault.
I am not sure how looking at various players in multiple situations then trying to find patterns is simplistic. In fact, I would argue that supplementing what you see with multiple data points has value.
Those multiple data points would indicate that Svechnikov was historically good in both the USHL as a 16-year-old and the CHL as a 17-year-old. He was also a top point producer at WHC-17, WJC-18, and WJC-20. A multi-year look at production is one of the better counterpoints to those who argued his rookie season was poor and indicative of his future.
Cost Per Pointcast: Draft Debaters Part 4, feat. Will Scouch & Chris Peters
31:41 — Marat Khusnutdinov
31:41 — Marat Khusnutdinov
I am still recovering from the Chomsky reference. Good God, man, it's a hockey board!
