Better Goal Scorer.....66 or 8?

[paracord]

"You can bring in differences in era and you can marvel at Ovi's longevity but that is quite a difference in pace. "
The fact that you refuse to look at any context at all and just use a goals/gp number shows how anchored you are in your refusal to change your opinion from the one you WANT/LIKE.

a) It is a FACT that average scoring was higher back when Lemieux played. We can argue the smaller goalies and pads, the worse defensive systems etc. But all data shows this to be fact. Adjusting stats is not perfect, but it is significantly better than taking the raw stats at face value.

b) You're looking at goals and games as a ratio. Therefore to have any meaningful conclusion come from this stat, you need to consider the variables that go in it. And you are completely ignoring (or ignorant) to the games portion of this. Ovechkin has played in 61% more games than Lemieux, which makes maintaining a /gp pace significantly harder.

c) Similar to the above, look at the distribution of those extra 61% more games. Ovechkin has played roughly half of his career games in his 30's (from the 2015/2016 season onwards). Whereas Lemieux played almost DOUBLE the amount of games pre-30 as he did post-30. If he played full seasons in his 30's, it's almost a guarantee that he would have had a lowered goal/gp stat.

Imo if you look at raw goal/gp and can't even consider those 3 points above, you're either blind and ignorant, or refusing to consider context and evidence because it goes against your opinion.

"Ovi is, at least to some extent, a one trick pony, the big shot. "
Wrong - and you saying that is proof of either:
a) A lack of credibility on your understanding of Ovechkin as a player over the course of his 20 year career.
b) A bias that has caused you to find a silly argument to reinforce a dislike to either put Ovi down or prop Lemieux up

The stats on nhl.com only start in 2009/2010 which excludes 2 of Ovi's best years, but since 2009/2010:

1) Ovechkin is first in wrist shot goals
2) Ovechkin is first in Snap shot goals
3) Ovechkin is first in Slap shot goals

So yes, the patented big shot (one-timer on the powerplay) is a classic goal, it does not change the fact that Ovechkin has been the best ALL AROUND shooter in the league over the course of his career.

Go and confuse a slower and more shot-reliant 35-39 year old Ovechkin from the last handful of years, but remember that is just not how Ovechkin was for the other part of his career.

On one hand, you want to use raw numbers. That's fine. They are important, and Ovi will have the most goals.

But obviously that doesn't favor Lemieux since he played far less games.

But then on the other hand, you want to qualify Per-Game numbers, and "adjust" them, since those don't favor Ovi.

It's cool, you think Ovi is a better goal scorer. you're leading about 60-40 right now, which is pretty close given all the hoopla surrounding Ovi right now. I admittedly thought it would be more like 50/50 though!

But no amount of stats would convince me that Lemieux isn't the better goal scorer, and it's not even that close. And I'm sure the opposite for you.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I already did: Your logic is broken.

Your suggested outcome is utterly unnecessary, and obviously untestable.

Your assertion - that it is necessary to "prove" Ovechkin would not have gotten injured had he started his career in the 1980s - is gibberish.

Your suggest outcome is also untestable. That's exactly the point. We do not know with any level of certainty what would have happened, no matter how much you want to pretend otherwise. You believe OV would have stayed healthy. As an old person who actually watched the NHL back in the 80s and 90s, I have serious doubts that anyone would have definitely survived that era unscathed. Especially a big guy like OV who likes to play somewhat physically. Pretending I'm wrong because I asked you to show your work and defend your laughable claim isn't doing much to convince me you're right.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I say Mario because he always remained a big playmaking threat while scoring a million ways.

That said, I don't think anyone is truly "better" at scoring goals than Ovechkin.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Your suggest outcome is also untestable. That's my exactly point.

I suggested no such thing.

Ovie's 20 year career - which I assure you, happened here on planet Earth - needs no caveat or equivocation. No extrapolations, no woulda/coulda/shoulda is necessary.

So you can add a strawman to your list of fallacies.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

On one hand, you want to use raw numbers. That's fine. They are important, and Ovi will have the most goals.

But obviously that doesn't favor Lemieux since he played far less games.

But then on the other hand, you want to qualify Per-Game numbers, and "adjust" them, since those don't favor Ovi.

It's cool, you think Ovi is a better goal scorer. you're leading about 60-40 right now, which is pretty close given all the hoopla surrounding Ovi right now. I admittedly thought it would be more like 50/50 though!

But no amount of stats would convince me that Lemieux isn't the better goal scorer, and it's not even that close. And I'm sure the opposite for you.

I'd be curious to know the average ages of the voters picking each guy. I have a feeling that most of the Lemieux votes are coming from old guys who watched them both play, and the OV votes are people born after 1995 that have only seen Youtube videos of Mario.

 

[crowi]

I like to tether my thoughts in to reality rather than pace or could-have-been. Therefore Ovechkin.

 

[TheLegend27]

I'd be curious to know the average ages of the voters picking each guy. I have a feeling that most of the Lemieux votes are coming from old guys who watched them both play, and the OV votes are people born after 1995 that have only seen Youtube videos of Mario.

There could be a nostalgia bias factor in play for those who grew up during Lemieux just like recency bias for those who grew up during Ovi’s era. I mean someone here said that Ovi would be considered the 8th best forward on 1956 Canadians by HOH board and I’m not sure that’s an exaggeration. It’s simple, you value per game numbers then you go with Mario, otherwise it’s Ovi.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I suggested no such thing.

Ovie's 20 year career - which I assure you, happened here on planet Earth - needs no caveat or equivocation. No extrapolations, no woulda/coulda/shoulda is necessary.

So you can add a strawman to your list of fallacies.

You're right, he did last 20 years in his era with tons of new rules that protected superstars from injuries. But, if you want to discount Lemieux because he got hurt and era adjust their goal totals, then shouldn't we era adjust for their health too? Lemieux played in a much more dangerous era, against much bigger, much meaner guys who would rather take your head off than try to poke check. There was no one like that in the NHL during OVs era, and anyone who tried was sent to the box and/or suspended. All the injuries during Lemieux's era is literally why those rules got changed.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I'd be curious to know the average ages of the voters picking each guy. I have a feeling that most of the Lemieux votes are coming from old guys who watched them both play, and the OV votes are people born after 1995 that have only seen Youtube videos of Mario.

Seen all of Mario’s career, didn’t vote for him.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

There could be a nostalgia bias factor in play for those who grew up during Lemieux just like recency bias for those who grew up during Ovi’s era. I mean someone here said that Ovi would be considered the 8th best forward on 1956 Canadians by HOH board and I’m not sure that’s an exaggeration. It’s simple, you value per game numbers then you go with Mario, otherwise it’s Ovi.

There could be some nostalgia, but most of the guys that I think were very good back then that Mario was dominating in everything are already in the Hall of Fame and are generally considered to be some of the best players ever. I don't care how much people want to play with the numbers to make the new guys look better, outscoring Brett Hull is always going to be more impressive than outscoring Jeff Carter.

 

[Midnight Judges]

You're right, he did last 20 years in his era with tons of new rules that protected superstars from injuries. But, if you want to discount Lemieux because he got hurt and era adjust their goal totals, then shouldn't we era adjust for their health too? Lemieux played in a much more dangerous era, against much bigger, much meaner guys who would rather take your head off than try to poke check. There was no one like that in the NHL during OVs era, and anyone who tried was sent to the box and/or suspended. All the injuries during Lemieux's era is literally why those rules got changed.

Then compare Ovechkin's career goal totals and goal rates vs his contemporaries.

And compare Lemieux's career goal totals and goal rates vs his contemporaries - who were subject to all these same exact alleged hardships.

Problem solved.

Incidentally, I've already done that in like 5 different ways on page 1 of this thread. It didn't bode well for Lemieux.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Seen all of Mario’s career, didn’t vote for him.

Even with all the information available, I would never expect everyone to be able to do the work correctly to be able to find the right answer.

Then compare Ovechkin's career goal totals and goal rates vs his contemporaries.

And compare Lemieux's career goal totals and goal rates vs his contemporaries.

Problem solved.

Incidentally, I've already done that in like 5 different ways on page 1 of this thread. It didn't bode well for Lemieux.

The problem is only solved if you wrongly assume their contemporaries were equal, which laughable if you even glance at the guys in the league. Beating Jeff Carter isn't the same as beating Brett Hull.

 

[crowi]

I'd be curious to know the average ages of the voters picking each guy. I have a feeling that most of the Lemieux votes are coming from old guys who watched them both play, and the OV votes are people born after 1995 that have only seen Youtube videos of Mario.

Would be interesting to know what average age of posters on HF is. I'd bet it's 30+. Posting on some obscure forum isn't what youth does these days. Also just because someone picks Ovechkin as the better goal scorer, doesn't mean they haven't seen Mario. I saw plenty of Super Mario in my youth, I remember also being very sad he had injury problems and wasn't dressed in games.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The problem is only solved if you wrongly assume their contemporaries were equal, which laughable if you even glance at the guys in the league. Beating Jeff Carter isn't the same as beating Brett Hull.

Your feeling the need to highlight the #10 goal scorer of Ovie's career vs the #1 goal scorer of Lemieux's career demonstrates a disinterest in honest discussion.

Joe Nieuwendyke, not Brett Hull, is more like Lemieux's analog to Jeff Carter.

Regardless, I compared Ovechkin and Lemieux both to the first and tenth best goal scorers of their generations at the 5, 10, and 15 year marks, both in terms of GPG and raw goals. Those are completely reasonable ways of looking at things. Again, it doesn't look good for Mario.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Would be interesting to know what average age of posters on HF is. I'd bet it's 30+. Posting on some obscure forum isn't what youth does these days. Also just because someone picks Ovechkin as the better goal scorer, doesn't mean they haven't seen Mario. I saw plenty of Super Mario in my youth, I remember also being very sad he had injury problems and wasn't dressed in games.

Mario first retired 28 years ago, so even if the average is 30+, that still leaves a lot of people who only have minimal childhood memories of him in his prime, if any at all. I'm not saying it's be 100% in each group, but I'd be a little bit surprised if the older crowd doesn't skew Mario and the "younger" posters towards OV.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Your feeling the need to highlight the #10 goal scorer of Ovie's career vs the #1 goal scorer of Lemieux's career demonstrates a disinterest in honest discussion.

Joe Nieuwendyke is more like Lemieux's analog to Jeff Carter.

Should I bring back the list of guys that finished top 3 during the first 7 of OV's Rocket winning seasons so you can pick someone so much better than 2008-09 Rocket runner up Jeff Carter?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Should I bring back the list of guys that finished top 3 during the first 7 of OV's Rocket winning seasons so you can pick someone so much better than 2008-09 Rocket runner up Jeff Carter?

All that amounts to is people assuming the legendary names of their childhood are immortal Gods compared to the current generation. It's an existential illusion.

The talent pool has grown.

 

[TheLegend27]

You're right, he did last 20 years in his era with tons of new rules that protected superstars from injuries. But, if you want to discount Lemieux because he got hurt and era adjust their goal totals, then shouldn't we era adjust for their health too? Lemieux played in a much more dangerous era, against much bigger, much meaner guys who would rather take your head off than try to poke check. There was no one like that in the NHL during OVs era, and anyone who tried was sent to the box and/or suspended. All the injuries during Lemieux's era is literally why those rules got changed.

Here’s the thing - Mario’s lack of durability both hurts and boosts his argument here. Mario only played 170 games after age 31, resulting in 77 goals in 170 games(.45 GPG). His coveted .75 would plummet had he matched the games Ovi has played in his 30s. He might end up with most goals of all time, but the GPG would be much less spectacular.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Even with all the information available, I would never expect everyone to be able to do the work correctly to be able to find the right answer.

yep that’s how nearly 2/3 feel, it’s also ok if you’re in the minority,

 

[paracord]

I'd be curious to know the average ages of the voters picking each guy. I have a feeling that most of the Lemieux votes are coming from old guys who watched them both play, and the OV votes are people born after 1995 that have only seen Youtube videos of Mario.

I would very much agree with that. If you didn't watch Lemieux play, I could see how this would be close.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

All that amounts to is people assuming the legendary names of their childhood are immortal Gods compared to the current generation. It's an existential illusion.

The talent pool has grown.

The talent pool has grown so that the average player is much better, but there were clearly much fewer extreme outliers that could easily outclass the average player for most of OV's prime, which is why the list of guys competing with him for the Rocket during those first 7 wins are mostly those 2nd tier guys like Jeff Carter.

 

[paracord]

Here’s the thing - Mario’s lack of durability both hurts and boosts his argument here. Mario only played 170 games after age 31, resulting in 77 goals in 170 games(.45 GPG). His coveted .75 would plummet had he matched the games Ovi has played in his 30s. He might end up with most goals of all time, but the GPG would be much less spectacular.

Maybe, but maybe not. He also missed 200+ games when he was scoring over a goal per game between '89 and '94. Those likely wash out later seasons, or greatly diminish their effects. And in 2001, he still was scoring at .814 goals per game as a 35+ year old, more than his career average. I'd be willing to bet the late 90s would have been very high scoring for him, given that a prime Jagr was still on that team, if he hadn't retired in 1997.

I don't think there's any way he goes too much below his current .75 gpg given playing all the 90s and until about 2003.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

yep that’s how nearly 2/3 feel, it’s also ok if you’re in the minority,

More people being wrong doesn't change the truth.