C/W Marat Khusnutdinov (2020, 37th, MIN)
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You again say some weird stuff I don't even know how to comment...
Zine
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2002
- 12,463
- 2,698
Khusnutdinov’s numbers were massively inflated last year. Still, if a 20 year old can play between Gusev and Jaskin and not look out of place he’s doing something right.
And assessing a young player’s potential based on Rotenberg current roster selections is ignorant. Matvei Michkov says hello.
We’ll get a better sense of Khusnutdinov’s current game in the coming months with his play on Sochi.
Circulartheory
Registered User
But don't you see the fallacy in your perspective? How can one guage the ability of the AHL to develop if one doesn't play in the AHL?
Anyways, I did look over every roster, I looked at all 438 NHL players that are on active rosters for this season. But to keep it simple, lets confine the argument to the top 98 scorers (I lost track of 2 when I was counting) and here are the results:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Top 98 Scorers in 2022-23[/TD]
[TD]
98
[/TD][TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]***Players who step right into the NHL[/TD]
[TD]
21
[/TD][TD]
21%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]***(No AHL) Players who played only juniors/NCAA post draft then straight into NHL[/TD]
[TD]
26
[/TD][TD]
27%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]***(No AHL) Players who played in Europe post draft then straight to NHL[/TD]
[TD]
12
[/TD][TD]
12%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Players with 1 AHL exp[/TD]
[TD]
26
[/TD][TD]
27%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Players with 2 AHL exp[/TD]
[TD]
8
[/TD][TD]
8%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Players with 3+ AHL exp[/TD]
[TD]
5
[/TD][TD]
5%
[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]
- Now here is the key flaw your in the thinking, 21 players jump right into the NHL as they were too skilled. Meaning they didn't need to go to the AHL, which neither supports nor detracts your argument. I think we should also remove the players with jump straight from juniors/NCAA because we are talking pro-level development. This is 47 players that are just too skilled that no time (AHL/KHL/SHL/SM-Liiga etc.) is needed
So what happens when we remove 21+26 players ...
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]51 Players of the Top 98 Scorers[/TD]
[TD]
51
[/TD][TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]***(No AHL) Players who played in Europe post draft then straight to NHL[/TD]
[TD]
12
[/TD][TD]
24%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Players with 1 AHL exp[/TD]
[TD]
26
[/TD][TD]
51%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Players with 2 AHL exp[/TD]
[TD]
8
[/TD][TD]
16%
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Players with 3+ AHL exp[/TD]
[TD]
5
[/TD][TD]
10%
[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]
Now its not causation but if you are looking for any pattern, it seems to be that any player that isn't so skilled that can just jump from player vs 20yr olds to playing grown adults, needs developlement.
And those that make up that portion of top NHL 98 scorer, 76% have at least one year (or 20+games) in the AHL for development. 36% have at least 2 years.
These numbers are greater that the 24% in purely Europe.
..
Now back to the topic on hard, Marat Khusnutdinov.
He is not a junior so he can't develop in the juniors or NCAA. And he was never a star forward. He is projected to be a swiss-army knife type on the 2nd/3rd line. Great versatility, speed, tenancity and can throw in a bit of skill. Because he isn't a star forward, a year in the AHL, if he wants to follow the trend of successful players, could help him hone his skills.
Last edited:
Zine
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2002
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The AHL can be a good tool for learning the physical North American style, but it's generally not too optimal for traditional skill development.
A lot of the Russian dudes have said it's very physical but not really creative hockey.
I suppose the benefits of the AHL are predicated on where a player is in his development and the style of game he plays.
RayMartyniukTotems
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- Jul 8, 2022
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No the best route for any youngster is to stay put and become a regular on their Team and then become a differnce maker Marat will never become a Difference Maker by competing with 4-5 other Forward prospects on the Wild! The Proof is the success of Kaprizov and his 4-5 years in the KHL and then Instant success in the NHL when he arrived...same as PForsberg,TSelanne as for your Argument about the Prospects playing not playing in the NHL,hogwash and the AHL is still a Garbage League and a Place where top Prospects go to "Die'!
Wasted Talent
Registered User
- Aug 9, 2011
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Forsberg and Selänne?
Couldn't find any more recent examples than guys who retired 10 or more years ago?
Well, it depends on who your teammates and coach are, but in general, I would agree. AHL isn't nearly as tough as it used to be, but it is still pretty rugged, and the reffing lets a lot more things go, which hurts skill players, IMO. Still you see small, weaker, skill guys like Petan and Mayhew thrive in the AHL.
In general, I think it's best for Russians to stay in the KHL, Swedes, in SHL, etc, to develop, but there are always exceptions. 18-22 yo's should be spending time working on their game, and don't need the distraction of adapting to a totally new country, culture, language in the mix. Hell, I would say that it's better for 18-22 yo North Americans to stay in college for some of the same reasons. Even then, a guy from Sicamous, BC might have problems adapting to life at Boston College. I grew up with a first round draft pick from Montreal who came home from BU because he didn't like the city.
AHL is good for players who are very close to NHL ready, as being on that team allows you to get the proverbial "cup of coffee" during the season at the big club due to injury/trades, performance, etc., that can turn into a long term NHL gig. If Marat is near NHL ready at the beginning of next year(assuming that he doesn't re-sign in the KHL), then the AHL would be a good place for him. He would be in his D +5 year, having multiple years playing against men in a vg league, and Iowa would be a place where he could not only acclimatize to the culture, but also the Wild organization, while getting looks in development, rookie, and training camps, with the very real possibility of getting in some NHL games during the season, if he doesn't outright win a spot.
WarriorofTime
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- Jul 3, 2010
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AHL bad development league? What?
It has more to do with the CHL Transfer Agreement and NCAA eligibility rules that most star players don’t need much if any AHL time. The players that become superstars are just simply already old enough when they go pro that they don’t need the AHL.
That’s not an indictment on the AHL itself.
It has more to do with the CHL Transfer Agreement and NCAA eligibility rules that most star players don’t need much if any AHL time. The players that become superstars are just simply already old enough when they go pro that they don’t need the AHL.
That’s not an indictment on the AHL itself.
SoundAndFury
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- May 28, 2012
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I suppose that's a more accurate way of putting it. Although Barys has no import limit, so "not a top-6 KHL forward on a competitive team as his skillset dictates he can't play any other role" would be the most precise.
RayMartyniukTotems
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The point with Forsberg and Selanne is that they took their time,Trained,develop their bodies,Strength,Skills and Matured Physically,Mentally and Emotionally... and when they came over they were ready and not relegated to 3rd-4th Line roles or put on the "Farm"!
The point is that you're making a general statement about player development and the examples you use are completely irrelevant, wheb you consider how much has changed since they played.
RayMartyniukTotems
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Making it more in tune to today? Well Kaprizov doesn't become the player he is by coming over at 20-21 instead of 23-24! Those extra years matured him Physically,Mentally and Emotionally and he got to Train his Body and work on his skills in a far better League than the AHL with all its has-beens,Never-Will-Be's and Maybe's
You are full of bluster and bias, short on facts. You have no idea how Kaprizov would've developed if he had come over, and no, the KHL is not a "far better league". It might be better, it might not. We won't really know till they have series with each other.
My personal opinion is that the AHL is probably a bit less good than the KHL, and that KHL teams would win 6 out of 10 games, but a lot would depend on the reffing, and venue. I do think that the top AHL teams would do very well against the bottom KHL teams, and vice versa. AHL is a vg league.
Kaprizov is so talented that I think nothing would have held him back from being a star in the NHL. In retrospect, he could've come over at least one, and probably two years earlier. He is not a normal case, though, he is an exception.
Al Lagoon
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- Feb 22, 2012
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Most of the great Detroit Euros of the Cup years spent time in Europe, and/or the AHL, and arrived fully fledged players in their early 20s
Koslov, Federov, Konstantinov, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, Lidstrom.
Don't mind let players mature at home or the minors.
Koslov, Federov, Konstantinov, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Holmstrom, Lidstrom.
Don't mind let players mature at home or the minors.
I'd say his IQ is questionable. It's especially obvious now, when he plays on the same line with Michkov. Matvei is on the whole another level being 2.5 years younger.
JiricekSaveUs
Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
- May 2, 2018
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I think that his IQ is quite good actually. You’re comparing him to Michkov who has some of the best offensive instincts I’ve ever seen. Pretty unfair. I don’t think his offensive instincts are great, which is probably more to what you’re alluding to, but he plays a complete game and makes good reads all over the ice. I just don’t think he’s particularly dynamic.
First, he's obviously not a play driver even on KHL level. Solid supporting player at best. Second, he's not very creative with the puck. Yeah, he's still pretty young, but at the very least he has to show some progress in his development, and I don't see any.
Dr Jan Itor
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JiricekSaveUs
Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
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Svedu
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- Apr 23, 2019
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He always had a good motor. He could become a good and responsible fourth liner in the NHL and perhaps a PK-killer and- if he can develop his defensive IQ etc.
Not every player has to become a great top6. They already have Rossi and Ek and will probably find another C in the future as well.
Not every player has to become a great top6. They already have Rossi and Ek and will probably find another C in the future as well.
Guadana
Registered User
He will become a lot better third liner in nhl than most. May be even middle six two way complimentary player like Haula. He isn't fourth liner in nhl, he is better.
Son of Petter
Who wants to walk with Elias?
Agreed. I don’t mind the Haula comparison there in terms of usage. I like this kid and believe in Minny’s drafting.
Svedu
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- Apr 23, 2019
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Disagree. He's not better than other prospects at the same age who became fourth and third liners like Armia, Kupari etc.
I mean is it certain that he's a better prospect than Aatu Räty, Kupari, Tuomaala? Prospects with probably third line as their ceiling.
I mean I would consider Lambert to have a lot more upside than Khusnutdinov right now.
If he's anywhere near a top6 he should be producing a whole lot more with Michkov in the nearest future.
Haula is a somewhat good comparison though, and he was never projected to be anything more than a decent- or even good third liner.
Guadana
Registered User
I said he will be good third liner, not bad or soft third liner. MAY BE middle six - it does mean he isnt your second line driver, it mean he can be good complimentary player in your second line if everything will go well. I didnt say he has solid top-6 future. Like Haula who was good complimentary piece in his good seasons. But mostly Im just waiting good two way third liner with decent game and production for third line. It is literally what I said. Khusnutdinov is better two way player than Raty or Kupari. I cant compare with Armia and Kupari because I didnt saw them enough.
For 37 pick having good two way player, who will produce 35-45 points is a good outcome. May be more in a good season on a good line.
Lambert is a player with higher ceiling, but with more problems in all around game.
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