C/W Marat Khusnutdinov (2020, 37th, MIN)

[SoundAndFury]

Filatov
Tikhonov
Nichushkin
Dano
Rubstov

Is "moving the goalposts" a saying in hand-egg playing countries? Because that's what you just did. Tikhonov and Filatov moved to NA before KHL was even created, Dano isn't Russian and at this point, it isn't even clear if Nichushkin could be called a bust.

Having said that, Filatov, Tikhonov, Nichushkin, Rubtsov, and let's add Kostin as well here, all left to NA immediately after the draft, for D+1 season. Doesn't seem like a move that paid of for them. So if anything, this list is even further evidence staying in Russia for a couple of years is probably for the best.

 

[2Pair]

Is "moving the goalposts" a saying in hand-egg playing countries? Because that's what you just did. Tikhonov and Filatov moved to NA before KHL was even created, Dano isn't Russian and at this point, it isn't even clear if Nichushkin could be called a bust.

Having said that, Filatov, Tikhonov, Nichushkin, Rubtsov, and let's add Kostin as well here, all left to NA immediately after the draft. Doesn't seem like a move that paid of for them. So if anything, this list is even further evidence staying in Russia for a couple of years is probably for the best.

try again

 

[SoundAndFury]

try again

Don't really see a reason to.

 

[blindpass]

Well, out of 1st round picks in the KHL era none of the forwards picked from Russia legitimately busted (albeit Rubtsov is getting close) while of those who were picked from NA:

Burmi - bust
Yak - bust
Grigorenko - bust
Scherbak - bust
Goldobin - bust
Y. Svechnikov - almost certainly bust

You must agree the list is getting substantial. Longer than what could be called pure coincidence.

Nice move limiting it to forwards so that you can exclude Provorov, Sergachev, Zadorov, Kulikov. This is the problem with anecdotes -- it is much too easy to be selective about what you attend to.

Most of these players you list are not even "busts" relative to their draft position. Yakupov is really the only one that stands out. Players that stay in Russia also tend to get picked later than they would otherwise for a variety of reasons, so a straight up comparison based on draft position will be biased.

Take Burmistrov for example, picked 8th. In the same year we have Gudbranson (4), Connolly (6), McIlrath (10), Fowler (12), Gormley (13), Hishon (17) and others like Forbort (15) that you could argue have had no greater success than Burmistrov, but just wouldn't find the option of going to the KHL for greater success appealing.

I know there's group a dedicated to the hypothesis that Russians are ruined by going to NA too early, and I'm not going to sway them in any way, but I just find the arguments a bit lazy and probably motivated by their preference to keep their talent at home (which is understandable).

I'm curious are Swedish and Finnish players ruined in a similar way? If not, why not? Was it a crazy risk to Auston Matthews' development for him to play his draft year in Switzerland?

 

[Habs76]

Nice move limiting it to forwards so that you can exclude Provorov, Sergachev, Zadorov, Kulikov. This is the problem with anecdotes -- it is much too easy to be selective about what you attend to.

Most of these players you list are not even "busts" relative to their draft position. Yakupov is really the only one that stands out. Players that stay in Russia also tend to get picked later than they would otherwise for a variety of reasons, so a straight up comparison based on draft position will be biased.

Take Burmistrov for example, picked 8th. In the same year we have Gudbranson (4), Connolly (6), McIlrath (10), Fowler (12), Gormley (13), Hishon (17) and others like Forbort (15) that you could argue have had no greater success than Burmistrov, but just wouldn't find the option of going to the KHL for greater success appealing.

I know there's group dedicated to the hypothesis that Russians are ruined by going to NA too early, and I'm not going to sway them in any way, but I just find the arguments a bit lazy and probably motivated by their preference to keep their talent at home (which is understandable).

I'm curious are Swedish and Finnish players ruined in a similar way? If not, why not? Was it a crazy risk to Auston Matthews' development for him to play his draft year in Switzerland?

I think you could make the argument that staying at home tends to be better for Russian forwards, while the North American defensive style develops defenders more efficiently.

 

[blindpass]

I think you could make the argument that staying at home tends to be better for Russian forwards, while the North American defensive style develops defenders more efficiently.

Sure, but all of this is some bizarre mystical thinking. Should Canadian junior forwards be clamoring to play in Russia so that they benefit from whatever magic happens there?

If the argument is that culture shock and being displaced from family might impact 17-20 year olds more significantly then that makes a bit more sense, though this is happening with most North American CHL players to some degree as well.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Nice move limiting it to forwards so that you can exclude Provorov, Sergachev, Zadorov, Kulikov. This is the problem with anecdotes -- it is much too easy to be selective about what you attend to.

Because it's an accepted fact that Russians can't develop Ds locally. It's not a "nice move", it's how it is. Nobody is even trying to deny it.

Just FYI, I'm not Russian and I couldn't care less where their prospects play. However, at this point, evidence, lazy or not, stacks against Russian forwards leaving early. I actually used to argue quite a lot in favor of players playing wherever they want but over the years, it definitely seems like there is something in the water when it comes to Russian guys going to NA.

I mean this isn't exact science, at the end of the day people are going to believe what they want to believe but while Russia developed Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Panarin, Kaprizov etc., best forward that was developed in NA is... Namestnikov I guess? Fair enough, now there is Svechnikov. But behind him quality just falls off the cliff.

 

[blindpass]

Because it's an accepted fact that Russians can't develop Ds locally. It's not a "nice move", it's how it is. Nobody is even trying to deny it.

Just FYI, I'm not Russian and I couldn't care less where their prospects play. However, at this point, evidence, lazy or not, stacks against Russian forwards leaving early. I actually used to argue quite a lot in favor of players playing wherever they want but over the years, it definitely seems like there is something in the water when it comes to Russian guys going to NA.

I mean this isn't exact science, at the end of the day people are going to believe what they want to believe but while Russia developed Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Panarin, Kaprizov etc., best forward that was developed in NA is... Namestnikov I guess? Fair enough, now there is Svechnikov. But behind him quality just falls off the cliff.

Sure, but what are the base numbers? The vast majority of Russians stay in Russia, so the fact that more succeed isn't saying much. Nothing I've around here constitutes scientific evidence.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Sure, but what are the base numbers? The vast majority of Russians stay in Russia, so the fact that more succeed isn't saying much. Nothing I've around here constitutes scientific evidence.

That's why my first list was 1st rounders only. If we were to accept the fact that all first-rounders have somewhat similar ceiling the difference between those who stayed in Russia and those who left is night and day.

 

[Atas2000]

Nice move limiting it to forwards so that you can exclude Provorov, Sergachev, Zadorov, Kulikov. This is the problem with anecdotes -- it is much too easy to be selective about what you attend to.

Nice move from you... in a thread discussing a forward.

 

[wetcoast]

Because it's an accepted fact that Russians can't develop Ds locally. It's not a "nice move", it's how it is. Nobody is even trying to deny it.

Just FYI, I'm not Russian and I couldn't care less where their prospects play. However, at this point, evidence, lazy or not, stacks against Russian forwards leaving early. I actually used to argue quite a lot in favor of players playing wherever they want but over the years, it definitely seems like there is something in the water when it comes to Russian guys going to NA.

I mean this isn't exact science, at the end of the day people are going to believe what they want to believe but while Russia developed Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Panarin, Kaprizov etc., best forward that was developed in NA is... Namestnikov I guess? Fair enough, now there is Svechnikov. But behind him quality just falls off the cliff.

The whole idea that Russian prospects can't be developed in NA is always retroactive, some of the prime guys like Panarin were never called at the time so this is all a moot point.

I really wish we could get back to discussing Khusnutdinov who is an outstanding center prospect for Minny.

 

[AKL]

Regardless of past case studies, why should there be any rush to get him to North America? He's playing in the Russian junior league right now, and he's doing well there, but he's not exactly lighting the world on fire. There's nothing to suggest he should be playing in a higher tier men's league at this point. If the SKA organization thinks he should be moved up, let them move him up to the VHL and see how he does there first. If he starts lighting up the VHL, and for whatever reason doesn't get a shot in the KHL, then you can start to consider bringing him over to the AHL.

All the talk of needing him to come play in Iowa next year so we can keep an eye on him is ridiculous. VHL to AHL is a massive jump. Again, one that there is no evidence he's ready for. There's just no reason to force it.

 

[57special]

TBH, I am not sure if Marat is an outstanding prospect. He seems to be more of a fun one to watch because of his speed in the open ice. Still very young, so I won't complain, as the Wild have turned into a slow team and need to get some speed at forward. I guess we'll have to trust Brackett on this one.

 

[Habs76]

Sure, but all of this is some bizarre mystical thinking. Should Canadian junior forwards be clamoring to play in Russia so that they benefit from whatever magic happens there?

If the argument is that culture shock and being displaced from family might impact 17-20 year olds more significantly then that makes a bit more sense, though this is happening with most North American CHL players to some degree as well.

I mean, I think the point is that Russia may or may not have the right practices in place to develop defenseman whereas both countries are definitely capable of producing different, but similarly successful offensive talent.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

Back to back games as the 13th forward for SKA. Marat played 3 and a half minutes yesterday. It’s very interesting how much confidence Bragin, and the Russian brass in general, seem to have in Khusnutdinov. He’s in a very good spot with a good program and will likely be the number 1 center for Russia at the next two WJC games.

 

[Kshahdoo]

1st KHL point

 

[DANOZ28]

i know its still early but im hoping for big things from this prospect. if hes a mix of a little zucker plus a little hemi (kaprizov) he will be fun to watch.

 

[AKL]

i know its still early but im hoping for big things from this prospect. if hes a mix of a little zucker plus a little hemi (kaprizov) he will be fun to watch.

What if he's not a mix of those two players?

 

[grN1g]

Can I be calling him our future 1c yet?

 

[57special]

no. Semi- hemi is out, too.

 

[Killerjas]

Can I be calling him our future 1c yet?

No, he has a long path to make it. I think his height will keep from being a 1st line C. He is more of a 2nd liner if all things pan out.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

Regardless of past case studies, why should there be any rush to get him to North America? He's playing in the Russian junior league right now, and he's doing well there, but he's not exactly lighting the world on fire. There's nothing to suggest he should be playing in a higher tier men's league at this point. If the SKA organization thinks he should be moved up, let them move him up to the VHL and see how he does there first. If he starts lighting up the VHL, and for whatever reason doesn't get a shot in the KHL, then you can start to consider bringing him over to the AHL.

All the talk of needing him to come play in Iowa next year so we can keep an eye on him is ridiculous. VHL to AHL is a massive jump. Again, one that there is no evidence he's ready for. There's just no reason to force it.

He's played in three straight KHL games now. Although in one he hardly got any ice time, another was a blow-out and in yesterday's game another SKA forward got injured in the first period so they were down to 12 forwards, which is probably the reason for Khusnutdinov's increased ice time (I'd guess).

However, from what I saw, he doesn't look all that out of place at the KHL level. He was quite sound defensively: he boxed out players in front of his net, was good at covering his point man in the defensive zone (he played mostly right wing last game I think), didn't lose track of his assignments, and made smart decisions when he got the puck to clear the zone, either by finding an open man to keep possessoin or chipping it off the glass instead of trying to force through something more high risk.

On the offensive side of the game, I'd like to see him shoot more and assert himself more. It could be that he's a young kid in the KHL and therefore defers to older players now though. For example, in the last game he was on a two-on-one with the puck and when the defender came over to take him, Marat tried a pass but it was blocked by the defender. It would have been nice to see him shoot (particularly shoot for a rebound there), instead of trying to force a pass. But most of his other time in the o-zone he made lots of short, Kucherovesque passes of a couple meters to open players that changed the point of attack, cycled well and wasn't afraid to go into the corners and fight for loose pucks. He drew a hooking penalty too. We'll see if he can stay up, since there's a lot of depth ahead of him, but from what I saw, he doesn't look out of his depth in the KHL at the moment. I'm not sure he'll produce tons of points there this year, but I don't think anyone is expecting him to do that.

Regarding the AHL talk, I hate to point anyone towards the train wreck that is the Podkolzin thread, but if you sort through the debris there, there is a lot of discussion about the low success rate of Russian prospects coming over to NA too soon (pages 11-13). Warning: may cause

 

[De Montreal]

Scott Gomez-ish?

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

He didn't play all that much last game, just a couple of shifts in the first period. But one of those was on the penalty kill. SKA took only that one penalty all game, so he wasn't out there again, but still pretty impressive to get that role from the coaching staff. Something to look out for in the upcoming games.

He's also had a full face mask the past two games (insert covid joke here?). Not sure why.

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

He played exclusively on the penalty kill today. Last game was mostly all on the penalty kill as well, with a few shifts on full strength. During the last game in the third, his man pushed off him, got a tiny bit of space and one-timed the puck into the net. I was wondering if that was going to be it for him for the night, since it was late in the third and that tied the game (I believe). But he got another shift on full strength, which was good to see.

In today's game he trapped the 20cm taller Svedberg in his own zone along the boards for about 15 seconds. It was kind of funny to see. He really reads the play well and is pretty impressively defensively, especially on the backcheck hounding players and forcing them to make plays. It'd be nice to see him get some more regular time at even strength, but that will come if he keeps playing the way he is.