Outside of truly elite talents (McDavid, maybe Matthews, MacKinnon, Tavares, Stamkos, and Eichel), no players floor is a 2nd line center. Now, the probability of his becoming something less valuable than a 2nd line center (without significant injuries) is probably something like 15-20%. A more realistic floor in a middle 6 winger, and even then, there is always a slight chance a player completely busts, we just saw 1OA player end up not getting a qualifying offer 5 years after being drafted. Players floors are commonly overvalued around here (and in the media at large), similarly, what theit ceiling is, is undervalued. I'd say a reasonable outcome to expect is a 1b/2a center. I'd say RNH was a notably better prospect than Kotkaniemi, and he's basically #2 center, now, Scheifele was probably a worse prospect, but is a bonafide franchise center you can build around. Sam Bennett, Sam Reinhart, and Dylan Strome were on par or slightly better, one is a 3rd line LWer, another is top 6 winger and the last is 3 years after his draft and isn't an established NHLer. Zacha is another reasonable example. Now, I don't mean to just list the bad examples, there are guys who overachieve. But, I do think suggesting any players floor at a 2nd line center is a bit extreme unless they are clearly among the very top tier of prospects. Now, to be optimistic, the odds of him being just a complimentary 3rd line winger, is probably similar to the odds of him becoming a top 5 center in the league.