C/W Jesperi Kotkaniemi - Ässät, Liiga (2018, 3rd, MTL) Part II

[newfy]

Claiming a 20-year old defenseman drafted two years ago and without having played one full, healthy season yet has reached his ceiling after his sophomore year... That's absolutely ridiculous and there's no sugar coating it. I respectfully, yet strongly, disagree with your entire analysis of the Coyotes drafting and their prospects/players. I think most would agree there's no justifying your position that these 20-21-22 year old kids have already reached their ceiling, and that reflects a lack of knowledge of drafting and development.

As for comparing Arizona to Buffalo, well, Buffalo has only graduated two prospects in the last 4 years to the NHL. Not even close to Arizona. I'm guessing you saying "this season" means you predict Mittelstadt, Dahlin, and maybe Nylander to get promoted. That's reasonable. 5 players to Arizona's 6, it's close. But saying they had "similar picks"? Really? Come on! Buffalo had THREE top two NHL draft picks, and two top 8 picks! It's not even close. I'm shocked you chose Buffalo as a comparison, considering you mentioned the excuse that Arizona had the luxury of consistent early draft picks as a reason for their successful drafting, when in reality, that is the case for Buffalo and it has been for a long time, much more so than Arizona.

As for Detroit, they've only promoted Larkin since 2014. Also not even really close. Even going back a year, add Mantha and Bertuzzi for Detroit, then you're adding Domi to Arizona. As for the Preds, only Arvi, Fiala and Girard since 2014. It's still not close.

Face it, there are no teams that come close to the Coyotes in promoting solid NHL players to the league since 2014, at least not with comparable picks (Buffalo with six consecutive years drafting in the top 8 overall certainly doesn't compare). And claiming the likes of Chychrun have reached their ceiling is absolutely beyond absurd. There has been no reason to doubt the Coyotes' draft pedigree thus far. They've done a great job drafting and developing their players to reach the NHL, especially recently.

Starting this year, Buffalo will have graduated Reinhart, Eichel, Guhle, Mittlestadt, Dahlin and likely Nylander. Youre acting like they arent comparable situations but to me theyre comparable. A guy like Dalhin makes it less comparable but if you remove him its still close enough for this comparison. When you have a guy like Strome that cant crack the NHL as a third overall while guys after him are drafted getting the odd Norris vote thats fair.

Detroit this year is going to have graduated since 2014 Larkin, at least one of Hronek and Cholowski, Rasmussen and possibly Zadina. Like I said, you include 2013 and youre including Mantha and Bertuzzi on the wings and Mattias Janmark as well. Undrafted free agent Joe Hicketts signed after the 2014 draft and will be on the team as well. So by including one extra draft youre adding 3 players while having a much better team in the earlier stages making harder to graduate guys.

That's bs... Chychrun has reached his ceiling as a 20 year old? Come on...

A big knock on Chychrun was that he was in a mans body and dominant young but didnt progress much in his draft year. I didnt say he had reached his ceiling, just that hes likely pretty close to it, especially compared to other guys his age. Hes a decent young player, but he was pretty well fully developed physically at the time of the draft. NHL ready but a high floor, low ceiling type of player. In a career year he might hit 30 points but I doubt hes much more than that

 

[Mrb1p]

Starting this year, Buffalo will have graduated Reinhart, Eichel, Guhle, Mittlestadt, Dahlin and likely Nylander. Youre acting like they arent comparable situations but to me theyre comparable. A guy like Dalhin makes it less comparable but if you remove him its still close enough for this comparison. When you have a guy like Strome that cant crack the NHL as a third overall while guys after him are drafted getting the odd Norris vote thats fair.

Detroit this year is going to have graduated since 2014 Larkin, at least one of Hronek and Cholowski, Rasmussen and possibly Zadina. Like I said, you include 2013 and youre including Mantha and Bertuzzi on the wings and Mattias Janmark as well. Undrafted free agent Joe Hicketts signed after the 2014 draft and will be on the team as well. So by including one extra draft youre adding 3 players while having a much better team in the earlier stages making harder to graduate guys.



A big knock on Chychrun was that he was in a mans body and dominant young but didnt progress much in his draft year. I didnt say he had reached his ceiling, just that hes likely pretty close to it, especially compared to other guys his age. Hes a decent young player, but he was pretty well fully developed physically at the time of the draft. NHL ready but a high floor, low ceiling type of player. In a career year he might hit 30 points but I doubt hes much more than that

He paced for 25 points, on the coyotes as a 18 and 19 years old... That's a ridiculous statement.

 

[newfy]

He paced for 25 points, on the coyotes as a 18 and 19 years old... That's a ridiculous statement.

You think he'll hit much more than 30? He was physically ready, and still slipped to 16. You start getting much higher than 30 and youre talking a 40 point dman that was physically ready at the draft. You dont think scouts would've taken him higher than 16?

He might do something like that in a Kyle Quincey type of way, where hes playing a bunch of PP mins that he wouldnt on a bunch of other teams because his team is bad but hes not some offensive minded dman that has the skill to be a consistent producer. I used to be a season ticket holder in Sarnia even, rooting for him but theres a reason he fell when he was that NHL ready

 

[Mrb1p]

You think he'll hit much more than 30? He was physically ready, and still slipped to 16. You start getting much higher than 30 and youre talking a 40 point dman that was physically ready at the draft. You dont think scouts would've taken him higher than 16?

He might do something like that in a Kyle Quincey type of way, where hes playing a bunch of PP mins that he wouldnt on a bunch of other teams because his team is bad but hes not some offensive minded dman that has the skill to be a consistent producer. I used to be a season ticket holder in Sarnia even, rooting for him but theres a reason he fell when he was that NHL ready

The 16th overall thing is not a good argument. The draft is not a science. Theres plenty of players that fall or go early.

Saying hes gonna be a 30 pts Dman at most is kind of ridiculous. Now you're comparing him to Kyle Quincey? ....

 

[JohnLennon]

Starting this year, Buffalo will have graduated Reinhart, Eichel, Guhle, Mittlestadt, Dahlin and likely Nylander. Youre acting like they arent comparable situations but to me theyre comparable. A guy like Dalhin makes it less comparable but if you remove him its still close enough for this comparison. When you have a guy like Strome that cant crack the NHL as a third overall while guys after him are drafted getting the odd Norris vote thats fair.

Detroit this year is going to have graduated since 2014 Larkin, at least one of Hronek and Cholowski, Rasmussen and possibly Zadina. Like I said, you include 2013 and youre including Mantha and Bertuzzi on the wings and Mattias Janmark as well. Undrafted free agent Joe Hicketts signed after the 2014 draft and will be on the team as well. So by including one extra draft youre adding 3 players while having a much better team in the earlier stages making harder to graduate guys.

To you, they might be comparable. But in reality, Buffalo had six years of consecutive top 8 overall picks, including three top 2 overall picks, so no, they're not comparable at all. Buffalo is literally one of the last teams that should be praised for their drafting prowess, as one of their biggest problems over the past decade has been their inability to draft quality talent outside the top 10 overall picks. Your comparison to Buffalo just further illustrates a lack of knowledge of drafting and development in the NHL today, along with the claim that a 20-year old defenseman is close to his ceiling. Absurd.

Detroit promoting 2, possibly 3 players since 2014 is very unimpressive and doesn't really compare to Arizona at all.

 

[newfy]

The 16th overall thing is not a good argument. The draft is not a science. Theres plenty of players that fall or go early.

Saying hes gonna be a 30 pts Dman at most is kind of ridiculous. Now you're comparing him to Kyle Quincey? ....

I think you have trouble reading sometimes or intentionally misread to make a point. I said he would need to be in a situation like Quincey was, not that hes like Quincey at all. Quincey got on a team that somehow needed him to play PP minutes he shouldnt have been playing to hit a career high that was higher than his skillset said it should be and put up 38 points. The team finished bottom 5 that year.

I also said a career year I doubt hes much more than 30 points. So maybe 35 but not much more than 30, go look at NHL.com and look who scored around 30 points as dmen. Theres a lot more offensively gifted guys than Chychrun there

 

[newfy]

Detroit promoting 2, possibly 3 players since 2014 is very unimpressive and doesn't really compare to Arizona at all.

If you want to stick to 2014 sure, but youre being intentionally obtuse if you cant tell theyre graduating at least 7 since 2013 with lower picks while being known for slow with putting prospects into the NHL. A difference of one draft and you dont think that compares. Ok bud have a good day, youre wasting my time

 

[Mrb1p]

I think you have trouble reading sometimes or intentionally misread to make a point. I said he would need to be in a situation like Quincey was, not that hes like Quincey at all. Quincey got on a team that somehow needed him to play PP minutes he shouldnt have been playing to hit a career high that was higher than his skillset said it should be and put up 38 points. The team finished bottom 5 that year.

I also said a career year I doubt hes much more than 30 points. So maybe 35 but not much more than 30, go look at NHL.com and look who scored around 30 points as dmen. Theres a lot more offensively gifted guys than Chychrun there

Yeah and I think you're talking about a player you havent really seen play. Chychruns ability to shoot and walk the line alone should make him a staple on the PP in the future.

 

[JohnLennon]

If you want to stick to 2014 sure, but youre being intentionally obtuse if you cant tell theyre graduating at least 7 since 2013 with lower picks while being known for slow with putting prospects into the NHL. A difference of one draft and you dont think that compares. Ok bud have a good day, youre wasting my time

I mentioned 2014 long before you mentioned anything about Detroit. I get you're a Wings fan, and you want to get the affirmation that your team is good, but they haven't done anything particularly special compared to other teams in the league over that period. Stretching the timeline so your favourite team looks better is biased, and even if we did stretch it to 2013 and included those players, that's still only 4 players who have graduated to the NHL (Larkin, Mantha, Bertuzzi, Janmark) compared to the Coyotes' 6 players (Keller, Chychrun, Fischer, Perlini, Dvorak, Domi). That's a substantial difference considering the short timeline. This year, the Wings will probably get Zadina, maybe Hronek and others, but the Coyotes will probably get Strome, maybe Merkley and others.

Also, you mentioned how you believe Chychrun has probably reached his ceiling at 20 years old (ignoring the fact that you're touting Hronek as a potential NHL graduate... at 20 years old), so I don't think I'm the one being obtuse here. Take care bud.

 

[Saekk]

Oh, new posts about Kotkani... never mind.

 

[schnapshot]

 

[kelsier]

Not here to criticize the Eagle but rather whoever it was that made this analysis. The instant impression I got from watching the clip was that when he delayed the pass to draw in more defenders, his guy was already floating away from the net as opposed to towards it. Then I rewind to check if the initial look was false, but it didn't seem like it. Had he actually made the pass sooner the forward could have attacked the net from the middle and no one would have got to him in time, but instead at the time he received the pass the guy was already too far out of position to make the best of it as he was forced to make a turn from the left side and try finish on his backhand with not much space to manoeuvre.

Just woke up like ~20 mins ago so maybe my lying eyez are deceiving me. I just might have another look later on if others disagree with the assessment. Anyway, we're like a month away from seeing the Eagle in action in the FEL. With his draft # I have pretty hefty expectations of him for the coming seasons and I'll be keeping my fingers crossed.

 

[schnapshot]

Not here to criticize the Eagle but rather whoever it was that made this analysis. The instant impression I got from watching the clip was that when he delayed the pass to draw in more defenders, his guy was already floating away from the net as opposed to towards it. Then I rewind to check if the initial look was false, but it didn't seem like it. Had he actually made the pass sooner the forward could have attacked the net from the middle and no one would have got to him in time, but instead at the time he received the pass the guy was already too far out of position to make the best of it as he was forced to make a turn from the left side and try finish on his backhand with not much space to manoeuvre.

Just woke up like ~20 mins ago so maybe my lying eyez are deceiving me. I just might have another look later on if others disagree with the assessment. Anyway, we're like a month away from seeing the Eagle in action in the FEL. With his draft # I have pretty hefty expectations of him for the coming seasons and I'll be keeping my fingers crossed.

I mean, if you’re talking about the first half of the clip (where JK delays the pass), there’s no backhand involved as his teammate fans on the shot. He had plenty of space to shoot but simply never got the shot off.

If you’re talking about the second half of the video (I’m guessing you are because of the backhand part), he’s not delaying it on purpose, you can see that his first pass attempt hits the defender’s skate and comes back to JK. On the second try, he hits his teammate with a pretty slick pass.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Hopefully #73 Kivenmaki (Wings 7th round pick this year) gets to play on that line, looks like these two could be really fun to watch together.

As for Detroit, they've only promoted Larkin since 2014. Also not even really close. Even going back a year, add Mantha and Bertuzzi for Detroit, then you're adding Domi to Arizona. As for the Preds, only Arvi, Fiala and Girard since 2014. It's still not close.

Face it, there are no teams that come close to the Coyotes in promoting solid NHL players to the league since 2014, at least not with comparable picks (Buffalo with six consecutive years drafting in the top 8 overall certainly doesn't compare). And claiming the likes of Chychrun have reached their ceiling is absolutely beyond absurd. There has been no reason to doubt the Coyotes' draft pedigree thus far. They've done a great job drafting and developing their players to reach the NHL, especially recently.

I don't see any reason to be impressed with the Yotes promoting prospects considering how bad the team has been.

29th
24th
28th
29th

Any team could promote lots of kids and be one of the worst teams in the league.

 

[kelsier]

I mean, if you’re talking about the first half of the clip (where JK delays the pass), there’s no backhand involved as his teammate fans on the shot. He had plenty of space to shoot but simply never got the shot off.

If you’re talking about the second half of the video (I’m guessing you are because of the backhand part), he’s not delaying it on purpose, you can see that his first pass attempt hits the defender’s skate and comes back to JK. On the second try, he hits his teammate with a pretty slick pass.

Yeah I was referring to the second scoring chance there. I just looked at it over after emptying a cup of coffee and using some eyelid for the blurry waking vision. You're correct, it seems he did try to pass the puck sooner (had it not been blocked the line mate would have had an open lane to the net). Guess the comment also was just a bit deceiving with the "similar play moment later".

 

[schnapshot]

Yeah I was referring to the second scoring chance there. I just looked at it over after emptying a cup of coffee and using some eyelid for the blurry waking vision. You're correct, it seems he did try to pass the puck sooner (had it not been blocked the line mate would have had an open lane to the net). Guess the comment also was just a bit deceiving with the "similar play moment later".

Or maybe the similar play was about stealing the puck and creating something, or the play in general, we’ll never know

His vision is something else. He just needs to have better balance...

 

[kelsier]

Or maybe the similar play was about stealing the puck and creating something, or the play in general, we’ll never know

His vision is something else. He just needs to have better balance...

Hah, indeed.

I actually watched maybe a third of his last season in Ässät and it amazed me how huge he looked. Didn't at all seem like a 17 year old, almost the opposite actually. He has a huge frame and broad shoulders, which is a bit deceiving cause he's not that heavy yet. Was measured as 182lbs in the combine and I was almost in disbelieve that another Finn (Kupari), who I had kept an eye on was actually heavier than he was and yet Kupari looks much smaller on the ice. Jesperi has tons of room to bulk up and once he's fully mature I doubt he's going to be tossed around a lot. At the moment he needs to focus on getting some real muscle in the legs to become the faster skater and improve the balance. He's quite far from being finished product.

Yup, it was his vision that impressed me even in the WJHC at 16-17 and I've wanted to keep an eye on him ever since. His mean-streak and want to show that he can be dominant player on the ice at the same tournament this year was really entertaining thing to see. I like that kind of an attitude and many successful athletes have this quality. I hope it doesn't regress as he proceeds to adulthood. Was really surprised Jesperi became the 3rd overall player picked though. Nonetheless while I take no thing for granted, I believe he has a chance to become of treasured player. We will just have to see what the future unfolds.

 

[The Ooh Wow]

Didn't at all seem like a 17 year old, almost the opposite actually.

What's that, a 71 year old?

 

[NotProkofievian]

What's that, a 71 year old?

A -17 year old or a 1/17th year old.

 

[DatDude44]

Thoughts on his ceiling/ floor? Any player comparables?

 

[Hostile Offer]

Thoughts on his ceiling/ floor? Any player comparables?

I don't know if it has been mentioned before but I see a lot of Logan Couture in his game. I also feel that's pretty much his upside.

 

[tooji]

His ceiling is Barkov/Kopitar. His floor is selling slushies at a Finnish 7/11

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

His ceiling is Barkov/Kopitar. His floor is selling slushies at a Finnish 7/11

Bob mckenzie said that Kotkaniemi is guaranteed to be at least a 2nd line center in the nhl

 

[GHJimmy]

Bob mckenzie said that Kotkaniemi is guaranteed to be at least a 2nd line center in the nhl

Mckenzie states so many shit that half are not true, with his iq and hockey sense, he's atleast potential 1st line

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Mckenzie states so many **** that half are not true, with his iq and hockey sense, he's atleast potential 1st line

McKenzie isn't saying that he cant be..all he's saying is that at worst he becomes a 2nd line center...I think that's a pretty good complement.