C Trevor Zegras (2019, 9th, ANA)

[JiricekSaveUs]

3 assists half way through the game.

I dig the custom title

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

the AHL is back?

 

[Tralfamadore]

the AHL is back?

Preseason.

 

[All Mighty]

Here is his primary PP assist:


Here is his secondary PP assist:

 

[Brodeur]

Don't worry we won't be winning the 2021 draft lottery. If there is one team the NHL doesn't want getting its 1st #1 overall pick in franchise history its the Ducks.

Highest Anaheim has ever picked is #2 in 2005 with Bobby Ryan.

...just because I get triggered by posts that imply that the lottery is rigged, here's Anaheim's history in the draft lottery:

1995: Anaheim (15.1%)
1996: Anaheim (1.6%) -- would have only moved from #9 to #5
1998: Anaheim (7.9%)
2000: Anaheim (~2%) -- would have only moved from #12 to #8
2001: Anaheim (8.1%)
2002: Anaheim (4.7%) -- would have only moved from #7 to #3
2004: Anaheim (2.7%) -- would have only moved from #9 to #5
2005: Anaheim (~4.2%, two balls out of 48) -- getting the #2 pick is pretty good considering the odds
2010: Anaheim (1.1%) -- would have only moved from #12 to #8
2012: Anaheim (6.2%) -- would have only moved from #6 to #2
2019: Anaheim (6.0%)
2020: Anaheim (8.5%)

They only been in the lottery twice post-2013 when the restriction with how far a team could move up was removed. Outside of the first lottery in 1995, Anaheim's never had more than a 10% shot at the top pick. From 1995-2012, Anaheim's only had a shot at the #1 pick four times and never had overwhelming odds (15.1%, 7.9%, 8.1%, 4.2%).

If you want to look at the inverse:

1995: 84.9% chance of not picking #1
1998: 92.1% chance of not picking #1
2001: 91.9% chance of not picking #1
2005: 95.8% chance of not picking #1
2019: 94% chance of not picking #1
2020: 91.5% chance of not picking #1
1996|2000|2002|2004|2010|2012: 100% chance of not picking #1

 

[Rasp]

...just because I get triggered by posts that imply that the lottery is rigged, here's Anaheim's history in the draft lottery:

1995: Anaheim (15.1%)
1996: Anaheim (1.6%) -- would have only moved from #9 to #5
1998: Anaheim (7.9%)
2000: Anaheim (~2%) -- would have only moved from #12 to #8
2001: Anaheim (8.1%)
2002: Anaheim (4.7%) -- would have only moved from #7 to #3
2004: Anaheim (2.7%) -- would have only moved from #9 to #5
2005: Anaheim (~4.2%, two balls out of 48) -- getting the #2 pick is pretty good considering the odds
2010: Anaheim (1.1%) -- would have only moved from #12 to #8
2012: Anaheim (6.2%) -- would have only moved from #6 to #2
2019: Anaheim (6.0%)
2020: Anaheim (8.5%)

They only been in the lottery twice post-2013 when the restriction with how far a team could move up was removed. Outside of the first lottery in 1995, Anaheim's never had more than a 10% shot at the top pick. From 1995-2012, Anaheim's only had a shot at the #1 pick four times and never had overwhelming odds (15.1%, 7.9%, 8.1%, 4.2%).

If you want to look at the inverse:

1995: 84.9% chance of not picking #1
1998: 92.1% chance of not picking #1
2001: 91.9% chance of not picking #1
2005: 95.8% chance of not picking #1
2019: 94% chance of not picking #1
2020: 91.5% chance of not picking #1
1996|2000|2002|2004|2010|2012: 100% chance of not picking #1

So combined over the years Anaheim had a 68.1% chance of getting pick 1. Thats more likely than not getting it.

Statistically Anaheim need another 31.9% chance over time at pick 1 to get it on average.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

So combined over the years Anaheim had a 68.1% chance of getting pick 1. Thats more likely than not getting it.

Statistically Anaheim need another 31.9% chance over time at pick 1 to get it on average.

That's not how probability works, you don't just add up the numbers.

By my math, they'd have a 40.8% cumulative probability of drafting 1st overall since 1995, and 50.0% chance at winning a draft lottery.

 

[Kalv]

 

[Brodeur]

So combined over the years Anaheim had a 68.1% chance of getting pick 1. Thats more likely than not getting it.

Statistically Anaheim need another 31.9% chance over time at pick 1 to get it on average.

As Whiskey mentioned, that's not calculating it correctly. Multiplying the probabilities from the years they were eligible for #1 yielded a 59.2% chances of not winning once, thereby a 40.8% probability that could have won at least once. If the outcome that was expected to happen 59.2% of the time occurs, it's not exactly the most unlikely event ie no real basis to claim there's some conspiracy against your team.

Edit: It appears that you got your (incorrect) 68.1% figure by including the six years that Anaheim was not in a position to move up to the #1 spot even if they had won the lottery. Just a reminder, before 2013 there was a limit with how far a team could move up (you can thank the Orlando Magic for that which is a funny story in itself). When LA won in 1995, they moved from #7 to #3. When New Jersey won in 2011, they moved from #8 to #4.

There's another fallacy in that thinking that "somebody is due" based on a previous drawing's result. If the previous four spins on a roulette wheel were all red, that doesn't mean the odds that the next spin will be suddenly higher for black.

Didn't mean to derail the Zegras thread, he looks fantastic.

 

[BringTheReign]

Howdy all, Kings fan who lives in San Diego here. He looked great against SJ, and I am bummed that he'll probably be in Anaheim before it's safe for us to watch Gulls games in person again. It would've been cool to get to watch him play in-person in the AHL beforehand.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

He looked like Zegras last night, not much else you can say he just has to get adjusted to the pro game, the vision and the execution of those passes is fun to watch

 

[Gliff]

Howdy all, Kings fan who lives in San Diego here. He looked great against SJ, and I am bummed that he'll probably be in Anaheim before it's safe for us to watch Gulls games in person again. It would've been cool to get to watch him play in-person in the AHL beforehand.

I really hope he gets a full season down there. Especially with this being a short season.

 

[NuxFan09]

Anyone know the lines for the Gulls in that game? Who was Zegras playing with? Playing at C?

 

[SmokeyDuck]

Anyone know the lines for the Gulls in that game? Who was Zegras playing with? Playing at C?

Agozzino and Carrick I believe

 

[NuxFan09]

Agozzino and Carrick I believe

Thanks! Pretty good linemates at that level. Can't complain.

 

[Beckett]

Anyone know the lines for the Gulls in that game? Who was Zegras playing with? Playing at C?

He was at wing... no idea what the long term play is.

 

[Mitch Doris]

Here is his primary PP assist:


Here is his secondary PP assist:

Zegras was amazing in the preseason debut, I was lucky enough to catch the stream out here on the EC.

Trevor Zegras Impresses In AHL (Preseason) Debut

Hoping I can catch the next game as well

 

[bsu]

Tonights game will be on youtube as well.

 

[JotAlan]

Tonights game will be on youtube as well.

Do you have a link?

 

[JotAlan]

Anyone know the lines for the Gulls in that game? Who was Zegras playing with? Playing at C?

De Leo and Carrick. Playing in the wing.

 

[bsu]

Do you have a link?

They cancelled the stream unfortunately.

 

[NuxFan09]

How did he play in the latest game?

 

[Kalv]

How did he play in the latest game?

I think there is only one game so far. It is available on YouTube by the way. He got 2 (IIRC) primary assists on PP.

 

[NuxFan09]

I think there is only one game so far. It is available on YouTube by the way. He got 2 (IIRC) primary assists on PP.

Gotcha, thanks. Looking forward to whenever he gets his first look with the Ducks!

 

[All Mighty]

Finished the AHL preseason with 6 assists in 4 games. From what I saw, he still needs to work on some things off of the puck, but when the puck is on his stick, he just makes things happen.

Here is his shootout goal from tonight: