I think we agree, just a semantic disagreement. I am using realistic as a synonym for possible, while you are using it as a synonym for probable. I think it's possible based on Steel's play and production that he could be a 1C, I don't think it's probable though, as there are very few prospects (outside of 1st overall picks) who I would consider probable 1c's in the NHL.
Even with 1st overall picks, I think "probable" doesn't always apply. It just depends on the quality of the pick that particular year. In general, I think people tend to underestimate how difficult it is for a player to be, what I'd call, a legitimate #1 center. As far as prospects go, those types of players tend to be quite exceptional.
The same thing applies to, again what I'd call, legitimate #1 defensemen. Just look at someone like Morgan Rielly or Hampus Lindholm. Both of them are, without question, extremely talented. I don't really have any doubt that both of them have the ability, but there is always that extra something that makes a true #1 defenseman, and that's hard to quantify. It just seems to be that ability to put it all together, consistently, at the NHL level. It remains to be seen if either of them can be that guy over the course of a career. I feel that they've both shown the ability to be that caliber of player, but they've also shown they can be less than that. And those are two of the best young defensemen out there. Ekblad is another example. It isn't just about being able to play at that level, but maintaining it. Typically, I think players often find themselves somewhere between the upper level of their play, and the lower, and that usually has them falling short (over the long-term) of that rather elite category.
I'd agree with you on Steel. I think it's realistically possible that Steel could be that guy. I don't think it's probable. As an Anaheim fan, I don't even care though. Steel has elevated his game, and he turns 19 tomorrow. I'm excited to see what he can do with more time and development. If he can even be a legitimate top six talent, that's quite a find at 30th overall.