Desjardins had a look at CHL player production at age 22 in NHL.
He was able to identify performance curves ( ranges that show how draft yr and draft +1 yr production Translates to nhl based on age.
Each yr has a base level of performance based on sept 16 birth date .
With expected in crease in production the further ( younger ) they are from sept 16 (1/365) to sept 15 365/365.
Draft yr (17) is .50 base + (x/365 x .25)
Draft +1 yr (18) .40 base + (x/365 x .10)
many know that I created the theories that most hockey analytics is based on. Things like HD danger shot density area. ( homeplate)
I further looked into draft -1 (16) and draft +2, (19) draft +3 (20)
Age translation (success):
Draft -1: .75 base + (x/365 x .25); .75 to 1.00
Draft: .50 base + (x/365 x .25); .50 to .75
Draft +1 .40 base + (x/365 x .10); .40 to .75
Draft +2 .35 base + (x/365 x .05); .35 to .40
Draft +3 .32 base + (x/365 x .03); .32 to .35
a 16 yr old getting 1 Ppg in a season is far superior than a 20 yr old getting 1.00 ppg in chl.
Q. Byfield
.50 + (288/365 X .25) = .697 translation.
45gm 32g 82P = 82/45 = 1.8222
1.8222 x .697 = 1.270 x 82 nhl gm = 104 xNHLP
lafrieniere
.50 + (26/365 x .25) = .518
52gm 35g 112P = 112/52 = 2.154
2.154 x .518 = 1.116 x82gm = 91-92 xHLP
this allows identification of players like debrincitt #39 rd2 2016
.50 + (94/365 x .25) = .564
60gm 50g 101P = 101/60 = 1.6833
1.6833 x .564 = .949 x 82 = 78 xNHLP
top CHL/cdn tier 2 (AJHL, BCHL, etc.) NHLE 2020 draft.
104 xPT byfield #2 LAK
91 xPT lafreniere #1 NYR
89 xPT Rossi #9 MIN
86 xPT Perfetti #10 WPG
82 xPT Jarvis #13 CAR
71 xPT Chromiak RD 5 #128 LAK,
69 xPT bourque #30 DAL
65 xPT Holloway draft-1 in AJHL #14 EDM,
65 xPT Perreault #27 ANA
65 xPT Lapierre #22 WSH
64 xPT Grieg #28 OTT
62 xPT Forester #23 PHI
62 xPT Mercer #18 NJD
62 xPT Zary #24 CGY
59 xPT Quinn Rd 1 #8 BUF
58 xPT Vierling RD 5 #127 NYR
57 xPT Finley RD 2 #57 TMP
57xPT Nieghbors #26 STL
57 xPT Weisblatt #31 SJS
56xPT Savoie RD 4 #100 EDM
56xPT Tullio RD 5 #126 EDM
56xPT Sokolov RD 2 #61 OTT
55 xPT Wisdom RD 4 #94 PHI
54 xPT Francis RD 5 #143 CGY
Just the math side of league age translation for prospects.
But if The mechanics (human Machine action) are their it is a great sign.