C Nico Hischier - Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL (2017, 1st, NJD) II

[Missionhockey]

Could it be that he's shot is he's weak point?

I'm not the biggest fan of all this analytics but the right analytics has its place if you use it correct. But looking at Nico what that do him good is how hard he works and compete, on top of that he oozes skill and iq.

I don't think so, I haven't looked at any stats but most of Nico's shots come from in tight. I think he smothers himself a little actually.

 

[93LEAFS]

Clearly the only game you’ve watched him play was when the leafs played the devils. Still salty eh?

No, salty is the definition of you in the Liljegren thread all summer. All my points are based on underlying analytics. I've seen at least 5 of his games this year. My point has less to do with the player, and more to do with the underlying numbers and what they indicate. Maybe he should have a goal or two more (as he has an iXGF of 5.21 in all situations), but that would be more than counteracted by the expected decrease in assists.

I could easily be wrong on Hischier and have underestimated him, but the two guys I grouped him with the most coming out of the Q, were Duchene and RNH, RNH rode unsustainable numbers in an injury-shortened season. Duchene had a solid year while having high, but not unsustainable numbers. I'll say the same thing about any player whose numbers appear to be inflated, which is why I offered up Matthews whose numbers are also likely to regress, and why I picked Marner and Laine as the most likely rookies to regress this year.

 

[VoidCreature]

Courtesy of Todd Cordell;

5v5 points, 5v5 chances

Nico Hischier - 9 - 31
Jamie Benn - 8 - 37
David Pastrnak - 8 - 25
Evgeni Malkin - 7 - 30
Filip Forsberg - 7 - 23
Sidney Crosby - 6 - 32

Looks like an elite player to me. If you watch him, he has a tremendous amount of room to grow as well.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Could it be that he's shot is he's weak point?

I'm not the biggest fan of all this analytics but the right analytics has its place if you use it correct. But looking at Nico what that do him good is how hard he works and compete, on top of that he oozes skill and iq.

No, I am talking highway robbery saves from point blank on slam dunk shots. He was so damn snakebitten in the first ten games.

 

[BruinLVGA]

Courtesy of Todd Cordell;

5v5 points, 5v5 chances

Nico Hischier - 9 - 31
Jamie Benn - 8 - 37
David Pastrnak - 8 - 25
Evgeni Malkin - 7 - 30
Filip Forsberg - 7 - 23
Sidney Crosby - 6 - 32

Looks like an elite player to me. If you watch him, he has a tremendous amount of room to grow as well.

Bolded is the "scary" part: imagine Hischier with his talent, smarts and then add on experience and a fully grown adult physique. Wowza.

 

[Foppberg]

Sigh.... Thanks lottery balls.

 

[Cleatus]

Sigh.... Thanks lottery balls.

Lol, I'm sure Nolan Patrick is going to be a pretty damn good player himself... Unless he turns out to be really injury prone, but have faith.

Winnipeg just needed 1 more win last year to get him, which kills me because he's a hometown talent.

 

[Foppberg]

Lol, I'm sure Nolan Patrick is going to be a pretty damn good player himself... Unless he turns out to be really injury prone, but have faith.

Winnipeg just needed 1 more win last year to get him, which kills me because he's a hometown talent.

Oh, this is awkward. Makar, not Patrick.

But yes I think Patrick will be a pretty good player, I'm high on Makar but watching Nico and knowing he slipped through our fingers stings.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Bolded is the "scary" part: imagine Hischier with his talent, smarts and then add on experience and a fully grown adult physique. Wowza.

And he is just so damn easy to root for. All indications point to him just being a wonderful kid off the ice.

 

[BruinLVGA]

And he is just so damn easy to root for. All indications point to him just being a wonderful kid off the ice.

Yes, indeed. Folks from Valais - a beautiful place, by the way - are in general down to earth, genuine people. Glad he was raised like that.

 

[Adonis Creed]

Hischier a GEM. Very well-rounded defensive game. VERY VERY HIGH Hockey IQ. Greatd hands, passing and pace to his game.

Just need to stay focus and he'll be a perfect #1 center with Selke potential.

 

[chokei]

How has his skating looked? I remember that it was mentioned as one of his strengths before the draft, one user compiled many videos where he analyzed Nico's skating and compared it to McDavid and others.

Getting stronger can never hurt especially for younger players, altough I'm not so sure that more strength would make Nico so much better as some are expecting/hoping. Would be impressive though if he could become as strong as someone like Datsyuk was. He played a game absolutely not based on power but he was so strong around the puck.

 

[Cleatus]

Oh, this is awkward. Makar, not Patrick.

But yes I think Patrick will be a pretty good player, I'm high on Makar but watching Nico and knowing he slipped through our fingers stings.

Oh whoops, lol.

That kind of sucks then, but on the bright side, I'm sure Makar will be a pretty big boost to Colorado's defence when he's ready to play.

 

[Cheddabombs]

How has his skating looked? I remember that it was mentioned as one of his strengths before the draft, one user compiled many videos where he analyzed Nico's skating and compared it to McDavid and others.

Getting stronger can never hurt especially for younger players, altough I'm not so sure that more strength would make Nico so much better as some are expecting/hoping. Would be impressive though if he could become as strong as someone like Datsyuk was. He played a game absolutely not based on power but he was so strong around the puck.

His skating is good. He's not really blowing by many people but he's still a fast skater. His edge-work is fantastic, those quick stops and starts are really something and he's constantly using that to his advantage when controlling the puck along the boards.

The biggest deterrent in his game right now is he's simply young and still filling out. He gets pushed off the puck rather easily on occasion. But of course he's 18 and that'll change over time. What's great is that he doesn't let that stop him from still competing hard in the corners and fighting for those pucks.

 

[Blender]

How has his skating looked? I remember that it was mentioned as one of his strengths before the draft, one user compiled many videos where he analyzed Nico's skating and compared it to McDavid and others.

Getting stronger can never hurt especially for younger players, altough I'm not so sure that more strength would make Nico so much better as some are expecting/hoping. Would be impressive though if he could become as strong as someone like Datsyuk was. He played a game absolutely not based on power but he was so strong around the puck.

I think getting stronger will do wonders for Nico. As mentioned in this thread, his edge work is great, but if defensemen can nail him down he just gets shoved right off the puck. Getting stronger will allow him to retain possession even better than he can now, and give him that extra second to separate himself instead of being pushed over.

 

[Scorcho]

The fact he has a 13% oiSH, and the fact his team has more goals (14) than their xGF (9), when he is on the ice. Those are simply the underlying numbers. Those are simply the underlying numbers, maybe he's a great player, but no one holds over 10 long term in recent memory outside of Crosby and Stamkos.

As stated earlier, but maybe not caught before the edit, I'll repeat this about a player on my own team.

For example, I've watched every single minute of Matthews this year, and he's riding a 13.6% oiSH at the moment. I can't think of any instances of him really being lucky, and I can think of chances he should have converted. But, even with all the watching I've done, I know his numbers at 5v5 are bound to regress, simply due to the fact converting at that rate isn't going to hold over a long period of time.

ahhh, I was wondering when a leafs fan would bring up xGF....

 

[Missionhockey]

How has his skating looked? I remember that it was mentioned as one of his strengths before the draft, one user compiled many videos where he analyzed Nico's skating and compared it to McDavid and others.

Getting stronger can never hurt especially for younger players, altough I'm not so sure that more strength would make Nico so much better as some are expecting/hoping. Would be impressive though if he could become as strong as someone like Datsyuk was. He played a game absolutely not based on power but he was so strong around the puck.

Well...he's not McDavid for sure. I think the best way to describe it is either deceptive or tricky. There are a lot of times a defenseman will think he has him trapped along the boards coming down the wing and Nico will squeak by him. He's pretty quick, but I agree with a lot of reports predraft that don't characterize him as a burner. He's not Mackinnon, but IMO he controls the play a lot more subtly like Datsyuk or Kuznetsov.

 

[BruinLVGA]

ahhh, I was wondering when a leafs fan would bring up xGF....

Just tell them that Matthews in 16-17 at the 17 games mark had 12 points while Hischier - who supposedly is not even in the same galaxy as Matthews - at the same mark has 14. Then just sit back and enjoy.

 

[VoidCreature]

Over the last 30 years, five 18 year-olds recorded at least 10 assists through their first 17 games. They are Patrick Kane, Alexandre Daigle, Sidney Crosby, Ryan O'Reilly and Nico Hischier.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=cumulative&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=Y&age_min=18&age_max=18&is_playoffs=N&group_set=single&series_game_min=1&series_game_max=7&team_game_min=1&team_game_max=84&player_game_min=1&player_game_max=17&game_type[]=R&game_type[]=OT&game_type[]=SO&pos=S&game_month=0&c1stat=assists&c1comp=gt&c1val=10&order_by=points

I can't find Daigle, but the highest career all-situational on-ice shooting percentages in a given season for each player are as follows;

Crosby - 2012-13, 14.15%
Kane - 2012-13, 13.23%
Hischier - 2017-18, 13.13%
O'Reilly - 2014-15, 10.56%

If this is the caliber of player Hischier is, his shooting percentage may be repeatable in a career year.

 

[haak84]

One thing is for sure is that Nico is not a man child like an Matthews, McDavid or Ovechkin. I don't think that is a negative when considering his work ethic and current production. He has a frame that could withstand at least 30 pounds more muscle. In turn, that will maximize his skills and abilities over time unlike players who come into the league already close to their peak. I also do not think being a speedster all the time is to his benefit- he is better when he controls the flow of the game. Don't get me wrong he still has the ability to turn on the jets but more intelligent players appreciate the aspect of time and space.

 

[The Noot]

The fact he has a 13% oiSH, and the fact his team has more goals (14) than their xGF (9), when he is on the ice. Those are simply the underlying numbers. Those are simply the underlying numbers, maybe he's a great player, but no one holds over 10 long term in recent memory outside of Crosby and Stamkos.

As stated earlier, but maybe not caught before the edit, I'll repeat this about a player on my own team.

For example, I've watched every single minute of Matthews this year, and he's riding a 13.6% oiSH at the moment. I can't think of any instances of him really being lucky, and I can think of chances he should have converted. But, even with all the watching I've done, I know his numbers at 5v5 are bound to regress, simply due to the fact converting at that rate isn't going to hold over a long period of time.

Probably a dumb question, but how can xGF be of predictive value for Hischier when there is no data of himself available so far to draw a comparison?

If this was his Draft +2 season and we had at least a season's worth of data of his play at our disposal and the discrepancy between his team's xGF and his actual GF was this big, I could see your point.

While I definitely think that jumping from 9 to 14 is too much to be entirely caused by him, I don't see how him being an unknown variable and him being better than the average player on the Devils could also be a part of this.

 

[Laineux]

I can't find Daigle, but the highest career all-situational on-ice shooting percentages in a given season for each player are as follows;

Crosby - 2012-13, 14.15%
Kane - 2012-13, 13.23%
Hischier - 2017-18, 13.13%
O'Reilly - 2014-15, 10.56%

If this is the caliber of player Hischier is, his shooting percentage may be repeatable in a career year.

You should take into account that 12-13 wasn't a full season, and the sample size for Crosby was less than 40 games.

The oish% that Hischier has simply isn't sustainable over a long period of time. It might last 20 games, 40 games or even 80 games if he's extremely lucky, but it isn't going to last 250 games, which I think is more important than whether it's theoretically possible over a lucky career year.

 

[GeNeXt]

You should take into account that 12-13 wasn't a full season, and the sample size for Crosby was less than 40 games.

The oish% that Hischier has simply isn't sustainable over a long period of time. It might last 20 games, 40 games or even 80 games if he's extremely lucky, but it isn't going to last 250 games, which I think is more important than whether it's theoretically possible over a lucky career year.

Well hopefully it counterbalances. His shooting percentage could drop, but if he can help generate more scoring chances and possession as he becomes more adapted to the NHL, then a regressed shooting percentage won't be that big of a deal.

 

[holyprime]

Since when is a shooting percentage of 13% high, or even worse, unsustainable?

 

[93LEAFS]

Probably a dumb question, but how can xGF be of predictive value for Hischier when there is no data of himself available so far to draw a comparison?

If this was his Draft +2 season and we had at least a season's worth of data of his play at our disposal and the discrepancy between his team's xGF and his actual GF was this big, I could see your point.

While I definitely think that jumping from 9 to 14 is too much to be entirely caused by him, I don't see how him being an unknown variable and him being better than the average player on the Devils could also be a part of this.

I don't think Corsica's model has built-in adjustments for players like DTMAboutHart's model, so it is comparing people on a more level playing field. I preferred DTMAboutHart's model, but since that no longer exists Corsica is the go to. No player holds above 13% oiSH long term at 5v5, so even more than the disparity in xGF and GF that is more telling in an expected regression throughout the season.