C Nico Hischier - Halifax Mooseheads, QMJHL (2017, 1st, NJD) II

[93LEAFS]

Do you have a source on this or are these observations and/or estimated numbers?

For the WJC all the ice-time is tracked. For Halifax its an estimation. Here are Hischier's ice-time for the WJC compared against an elite player from Canada (chose Strome). Hischier probably did more penalty killing, but that doesn't fully explain the almost 5 minutes difference in ice-time. Strome's ice time was fairly typical of the forward stars of the tournament.

Hischier
Vs Czech's- 21.03
Vs Swedes- 20.22
Vs Denmark (5 min OT)- 24.46
Vs Finland: 17.26
Vs USA: 21.46

D. Strome
vs Russia: 16.07
vs Slovakia: 14.43
vs Latvia: 13.39
vs USA (round Robin): 19.46
vs Czech's: 16.47
vs Sweden: 16.17
Vs USA (finals 20minute OT): 21.54

In Halifax, watching Hischier, it was pretty clear they were giving him a boatload of ice-time.

There are techniques that pre-date real-time statistics developed for the NHL to track ice-time that have been used in junior in recent years. Hischier's ice-time pre-game among forwards was estimated to be 6th among forwards per game at 23.46. For comparison, a star forward like Sprong only got 21.43. Dubois, a 3rd overall pick last year only got 21.28.

These are only rough estimates, but it does fall inline with the eyetest.

 

[Cheddabombs]

For the WJC all the ice-time is tracked. For Halifax its an estimation. Here are Hischier's ice-time for the WJC compared against an elite player from Canada (chose Strome). Hischier probably did more penalty killing, but that doesn't fully explain the almost 5 minutes difference in ice-time. Strome's ice time was fairly typical of the forward stars of the tournament.

Hischier
Vs Czech's- 21.03
Vs Swedes- 20.22
Vs Denmark (5 min OT)- 24.46
Vs Finland: 17.26
Vs USA: 21.46

D. Strome
vs Russia: 16.07
vs Slovakia: 14.43
vs Latvia: 13.39
vs USA (round Robin): 19.46
vs Czech's: 16.47
vs Sweden: 16.17
Vs USA (finals 20minute OT): 21.54

In Halifax, watching Hischier, it was pretty clear they were giving him a boatload of ice-time.

There are techniques that pre-date real-time statistics developed for the NHL to track ice-time that have been used in junior in recent years. Hischier's ice-time pre-game among forwards was estimated to be 6th among forwards per game at 23.46. For comparison, a star forward like Sprong only got 21.43. Dubois, a 3rd overall pick last year only got 21.28.

These are only rough estimates, but it does fall inline with the eyetest.

That is quite a lot of ice time and kind of gives way to the whole running out steam argument for why his play dipped. Not only did he play a lot more games than he had previously, he was getting relied on heavily in those games. Though using WJC ice time, especially when comparing it to someone like Strome (or really any forward from Canada), is a tad misleading. Of course Canada has the guns available where they don't need to rely on Strome so heavily, or any of their forwards really, because of their depth. Whereas obviously the Swiss are not nearly as deep and if they have an ace like Hischier in their pockets there's no doubt that they'd ride him as much as they could. Even in Halifax, where I've heard they're not the best of teams, that would make sense why they played him so much. Although ~23, almost 24 minutes per game is ridiculous for a forward.

 

[93LEAFS]

That is quite a lot of ice time and kind of gives way to the whole running out steam argument for why his play dipped. Not only did he play a lot more games than he had previously, he was getting relied on heavily in those games. Though using WJC ice time, especially when comparing it to someone like Strome (or really any forward from Canada), is a tad misleading. Of course Canada has the guns available where they don't need to rely on Strome so heavily, or any of their forwards really, because of their depth. Whereas obviously the Swiss are not nearly as deep and if they have an ace like Hischier in their pockets there's no doubt that they'd ride him as much as they could. Even in Halifax, where I've heard they're not the best of teams, that would make sense why they played him so much. Although ~23, almost 24 minutes per game is ridiculous for a forward.

I was going to do it for Keller and Nylander (neither are really PKers though) so I figured I'd say myself the time, they are very similar to Strome. Among the top teams, the ice-time stay fairly similar, especially if they avoid close games or trailing. No other team really had an elite player to use as a comparable.

In the end, I think in most cases these things balance out. When you are talking about players who clearly drive their team's offense (and not a secondary scorer), the lesser ice-time somewhat counteracts the teammate advantage. Also, bad teams also can stack top lines, Hischier played with a quality offensive player in Fortier all year.

Having looked at 1st round forwards from the CHL and their numbers for every draft since 2005 and age/league adjusted numbers, I don't see that guys who played for bad teams are unfairly punished. Methods could obviously be significantly helped by getting accurate TOI stats and so on, but that is probably wishful thinking.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I was going to do it for Keller and Nylander (neither are really PKers though) so I figured I'd say myself the time, they are very similar to Strome. Among the top teams, the ice-time stay fairly similar, especially if they avoid close games or trailing. No other team really had an elite player to use as a comparable.

In the end, I think in most cases these things balance out. When you are talking about players who clearly drive their team's offense (and not a secondary scorer), the lesser ice-time somewhat counteracts the teammate advantage. Also, bad teams also can stack top lines, Hischier played with a quality offensive player in Fortier all year.

Having looked at 1st round forwards from the CHL and their numbers for every draft since 2005 and age/league adjusted numbers, I don't see that guys who played for bad teams are unfairly punished. Methods could obviously be significantly helped by getting accurate TOI stats and so on, but that is probably wishful thinking.

Interesting, I appreciate the analysis! Do you think Hischier still puts up as many points as he did if they toned down his minutes, or at least had as good a year he did? And do you think he would have been less likely to "burn out" as a result?

 

[93LEAFS]

Interesting, I appreciate the analysis! Do you think Hischier still puts up as many points as he did if they toned down his minutes, or at least had as good a year he did? And do you think he would have been less likely to "burn out" as a result?

I think he might have had a stronger second half (but there is also the rumored wrist injury). It all depends on how they cut a players minutes. If they took him completely off the PK, slightly reduced his 5v5 but kept him in offensive situations it probably won't have a drastic effect. But, the issue is, usually, you see a more balanced cut in ice-time with a well-rounded player or players are kept off the ice in blow-outs.

Granted, Hischier's numbers for the first few weeks in the QMJHL weren't blowing the competition away. So, he may have been due for a natural regression anyway. Without info on his oiSH%, it's hard to tell when he was getting puck-luck or not. You can guess off of shot generation, but individual shooting percentages are always going to be erratic.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

For the WJC all the ice-time is tracked. For Halifax its an estimation.

Got it, thanks. I was assuming you were estimating the Q numbers, but hopeful someone had released data I hadn't seen yet.

I was actually asking, not questioning. I know that's often not the case.

 

[93LEAFS]

Got it, thanks. I was assuming you were estimating the Q numbers, but hopeful someone had released data I hadn't seen yet.

I was actually asking, not questioning. I know that's often not the case.

No problem, I didn't take it as a challenge or anything. Between boredom and resources, I thought I had some simplistic sources that could illustrate my point. esTOI is far from perfect, but it's better than me just stating something and going off the eye test.

This draft will be really interesting. Its so wide open I have no idea what to expect. Hopefully, your team finds its self a quality number 1c.

 

[goonybird]

Can attest to Hischier almost never coming off the ice in Halifax.

 

[Hockeypete49]

Wow really starting to soak this all in. I really think that the bevs are picking Patrick leaving Nico to become a Flyer. This young man is going to look good in Orange and Black next year and he is just what the team needs.

Watched a replay of the prospects game and that sold me on both players.

 

[Hockeypete49]

I'm not seeing into the future. I'm simply telling you how all the players were viewed prior to the draft. Patrick is very comparable to Monahan who went 6th in that draft. You'll get a good prospect, be happy, but your sarcasm is misplaced.

Hope you are right because if they redid that draft Monahan would be selected way higher!!

 

[MichaelJ]

Wow really starting to soak this all in. I really think that the bevs are picking Patrick leaving Nico to become a Flyer. This young man is going to look good in Orange and Black next year and he is just what the team needs.

Watched a replay of the prospects game and that sold me on both players.

All signs so far point to Hischier being NJ's pick. I think Philly will be happy with Patrick

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

All signs so far point to Hischier being NJ's pick. I think Philly will be happy with Patrick

What are the signs?

 

[hradekbr]

All signs so far point to Hischier being NJ's pick. I think Philly will be happy with Patrick

Everytime I hear Ray Shero talk about the two I become more and more confident their going to take Patrick #1.....

 

[Cheddabombs]

What are the signs?

A few people in the industry, I think Button, Marek, and Hradek have all sort of alluded to the Devils preferring Nico slightly. And because these are people that should have some connections some have connected the dots. It's still early though and I think it's all smoke and mirrors for now.

Everytime I hear Ray Shero talk about the two I become more and more confident their going to take Patrick #1.....

He's spoken highly of both, I really don't know which way he'll lean.

 

[RememberTheName]

I remember someone saying how every time Shero would talk about the two he would refer to Patrick first and talk more about him so that might be saying something

 

[Zippy316]

What are the signs?

Primarily this references the fact that as soon as the Devils won #1, Button immediately flipped his top 15 to reflect the Devils picking Hischier #1 and not Patrick.

There also have been some connected media members inferring the Devils like Hischier more.

 

[Keep Sorokin Me Babe]

I remember someone saying how every time Shero would talk about the two he would refer to Patrick first and talk more about him so that might be saying something

In 2015, Arizona's GM was talking about options at 3rd overall and was really hyping up Marner by calling him an electrifying player etc, but they ended up taking Strome. Not sure what really was the point of this. If anything, you're disappointing your fanbase by getting their hopes high on one player and then selecting another

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

If Arizona knew Toronto wanted Marner pretty badly, they might have been doing that in an attempt to get them to trade them assets to swap picks. Shero could be throwing the same kind of smoke if he thinks Philly favors one or the other. I doubt Hextall cares to budge tho

 

[93LEAFS]

If Arizona knew Toronto wanted Marner pretty badly, they might have been doing that in an attempt to get them to trade them assets to swap picks. Shero could be throwing the same kind of smoke if he thinks Philly favors one or the other. I doubt Hextall cares to budge tho

This approach rarely works (unless you are Rick Dudley). Usually, to scare another team into trading up one spot, you need to imply a bidding war for your pick is going on for a team to move up and select their guy.

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

This approach rarely works (unless you are Rick Dudley). Usually, to scare another team into trading up one spot, you need to imply a bidding war for your pick is going on for a team to move up and select their guy.

There might be one this year from one of the teams who dropped out of the top 3. Maybe they really had their heart set on Nico/Nolan. Worth a shot, you've got 7 weeks to try to do the best thing for your team

 

[93LEAFS]

There might be one this year from one of the teams who dropped out of the top 3. Maybe they really had their heart set on Nico/Nolan. Worth a shot, you've got 7 weeks to try to do the best thing for your team

Columbus tried something similar last year, and the Oilers basically called their bluff.

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

Columbus tried something similar last year, and the Oilers basically called their bluff.

The oilers already had McDavid. That pick last year was choosing which color icing they wanted on their cake

 

[NHL Dude 120]

Devils and flyers fans how would he project in your lineup

 

[ghdi]

Devils and flyers fans how would he project in your lineup

For the Devils, I'd reckon Hischier on the wing, 2nd line to start. Its not easy to project this far out.

I think Patrick would slot in as #2 center if he's the pick right off the bat. Either pick needs to be playing with some of our few more talented offensive players though at least how its currently composed.

The wildcard here is McLeod. He could make the team out of camp. Same with Quenneville. If we add someone via trade or UFA that could change the dynamic further as well. Its just too soon to really make a stable projection. This year is a bit anomalous with the ED and the fact the Devils have a surplus of cap space to add other players.

 

[hradekbr]

Devils and flyers fans how would he project in your lineup

Not sure he would make Philly's opening night roster. Would be tough for him to fit into their top 6, and playing him on the 3rd line would just be a waste