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C Michael McLeod - Mississauga Steelheads, OHL (2016, 12th, NJD)

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Michael McLeod is quietly having a breakout year in the OHL. He currently has 1 goal and 14 points in 9 games, or 1.56 PTS/G. That's impressive enough by itself, but he's only shooting at 3% so far. Last year he shot 12%, quadruple that figure. If we adjust for his bad luck, he'd have 4 goals and 17 points in 9 games, or just a hair under 2 PTS/G.

That would put him past Logan Brown and into Travis Konecny territory. Early still, but that's damn impressive.

He's also +10 and winning 63% of his faceoffs. Seems like a home run.
 
VoidCreature said:
Michael McLeod is quietly having a breakout year in the OHL. He currently has 1 goal and 14 points in 9 games, or 1.56 PTS/G. That's impressive enough by itself, but he's only shooting at 3% so far. Last year he shot 12%, quadruple that figure. If we adjust for his bad luck, he'd have 4 goals and 17 points in 9 games, or just a hair under 2 PTS/G.

That would put him past Logan Brown and into Travis Konecny territory. Early still, but that's damn impressive.

He's also +10 and winning 63% of his faceoffs. Seems like a home run.
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This post is a bit of a reach tbh.
 
MS said:
Probably not, but his linemate Owen Tippett isn't going to keep shooting 20% and clear 70 goals this year to drag McLeod to close to 100 assists, either.
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Drag? So it's all thanks to Owen Tippett, just like it was all thanks to Alex Nylander last year?

I swear, this board just picks favorites. I can't find any rhyme or reason to it.

McLeod is having an excellent start to the year, that's my entire assertion.
 
MS said:
Probably not, but his linemate Owen Tippett isn't going to keep shooting 20% and clear 70 goals this year to drag McLeod to close to 100 assists, either.
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Yea I'd expect his goals : assist ratio to normalize, but wouldn't necessarily expect him to see a big production bump as his shooting percentage increase. Heck, there's probably a few of his assists that came off rebounds from shots that maybe should've gone in.
 
VoidCreature said:
Where did I inflate his assists? He has 13.
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How many of those assists came off of rebounds though? if his shooting percentage was higher his assist count may very well be lower.

Its always dangerous to make any extrapolations from the first couple of weeks, I mean we all do it including myself its just wrong as often as its right.

edit

more or less said the same thing as the person above, teach me to hit reply without finishing up the thread.
 
VoidCreature said:
Drag? So it's all thanks to Owen Tippett, just like it was all thanks to Alex Nylander last year?

I swear, this board just picks favorites. I can't find any rhyme or reason to it.

McLeod is having an excellent start to the year, that's my entire assertion.
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I don't have a horse in this race.

You're claiming that his goalscoring is going to spike due to his low shooting percentage normalizing but ignoring that his high assist totals are being fuelled by the high shooting percentages of his linemates, which will also normalize.

No argument whatsoever that he's having a good start.
 
Let's see if this rebound assist theory is true. If McLeod wasn't a Devils prospect I wouldn't be this thorough, but I'm going to list every assist he has this year, with accompanying video.

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-216-nb-7-miss-4

0:57, behind the back no look pass, goal by Bastian.

1:43, centering pass, shot by Hague, rebound goal by Bastian

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-616-miss-2-wsr-4

According to the box score McLeod had an assist on a shorthanded goal by Bastian in this game, but they don't show it on the replay so I have no idea

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-1216-gue-3-miss-11

:50, cross ice pass, 1st OHL goal by Jacob

1:04, neutral zone pass, goal by Tippett

1:36, box says McLeod got a secondary, though it's not shown on the replay. I'll assume it was a neutral zone pass to Bastian who passes to Hague for the goal

2:29, goal by McLeod

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-1416-miss-4-flnt-5

1:18, cross ice pass to Tippett, who scores

1:29, this one confuses the **** out of me, can't really see the numbers. According to the box it's a secondary assist, so definitely not a rebound

1:42, pass from behind the net to Tippett who scores

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-1516-miss-3-sag-2-ot

:35 drop pass to Tipett who scores

:57, extended give and go by Bastian and Jacob, goal by Bastian, McLeod gets an assist from the faceoff win

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-2016-miss-4-bar-5-so

1:30, pass to the point to Hague deflects to Ryan McLeod who scores

http://ontariohockeyleague.com/video/oct-2316-kit-3-miss-2-ot

:10 cross ice, back door pass to Tippett who scores


So, in summary. 8 of his 13 assists were primary. 5 of them were goals by Tippett. None of them were on rebounds.
 
MS said:
I don't have a horse in this race.

You're claiming that his goalscoring is going to spike due to his low shooting percentage normalizing but ignoring that his high assist totals are being fuelled by the high shooting percentages of his linemates, which will also normalize.

No argument whatsoever that he's having a good start.
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I mean, I guess. What if Tippett continues to shoot 20%, or close to it? 12% is about the average in the OHL, and his shot is really strong. Patrick Kane benefited a lot from playing with Panarin, and vice versa. I'm sure Backstrom loves having Ovi taking shots on his passes. Does that invalidate their abilities, though?
 
VoidCreature said:
I mean, I guess. Patrick Kane really benefited from playing with Panarin, and vice versa. I'm sure Backstrom loves having Ovi taking shots on his passes. Does that invalidate their abilities, though?
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Ugh. :help:

I'm not invalidating anything or making any comment on McLeod's ability.

You said that he was an off to a good start and that he was unlucky it wasn't even better because he'd been unlucky in terms of shooting percentage. All I'm saying is that while he might have been unlucky in terms of his shots, his linemates have, conversely, been shooting at an unsustainably high rate.

You can't just say 'he's been unlucky or he'd have more goals and more points!' without also acknowledging that he's been lucky in terms of his assists.
 
MS said:
Ugh. :help:

I'm not invalidating anything or making any comment on McLeod's ability.

You said that he was an off to a good start and that he was unlucky it wasn't even better because he'd been unlucky in terms of shooting percentage. All I'm saying is that while he might have been unlucky in terms of his shots, his linemates have, conversely, been shooting at an unsustainably high rate.

You can't just say 'he's been unlucky or he'd have more goals and more points!' without also acknowledging that he's been lucky in terms of his assists.
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I'm not sure he's been lucky in that regard, though. Maybe on a couple of his assists, like the drop passes. But many of them have been of the cross ice variety. If you force the goalie to move your chances of scoring on the shot dramatically increase.

Your point is noted, though. We'll see how the rest of the season goes for him.
 
VoidCreature said:
I'm not sure he's been lucky in that regard, though. Maybe on a couple of his assists, like the drop passes. But many of them have been of the cross ice variety. If you force the goalie to move your chances of scoring on the shot dramatically increase.

Your point is noted, though. We'll see how the rest of the season goes for him.
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Right now he's on pace for over 100 assists/70 games. There hasn't been a player record 100 assists in the OHL for almost 25 years. I feel pretty comfortable thinking those numbers are going to normalize. Likewise, I don't think Tippett will continue to score at a 70-goal pace.

We'll see what happens.
 
VoidCreature said:
I mean, I guess. What if Tippett continues to shoot 20%, or close to it? 12% is about the average in the OHL, and his shot is really strong. Patrick Kane benefited a lot from playing with Panarin, and vice versa. I'm sure Backstrom loves having Ovi taking shots on his passes. Does that invalidate their abilities, though?
Click to expand...

What if McLeod continues to shoot at 3%?

McLeod is as likely to continue to shoot at that percentage as Tippet is as likely to continue to shoot at 20%.

Meaning, over the course of the year, but with probably normalize.
 
Roo Mad Bro said:
What if McLeod continues to shoot at 3%?

McLeod is as likely to continue to shoot at that percentage as Tippet is as likely to continue to shoot at 20%.

Meaning, over the course of the year, but with probably normalize.
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I don't think this is true, but I agree in principle. How many top line fwds (thats what McLeod is in the OHL) in the NHL shoot 3% in a season...it never happens. Conversely, there have been examples of good players shooting 20%
 
SMantzas said:
I don't think this is true, but I agree in principle. How many top line fwds (thats what McLeod is in the OHL) in the NHL shoot 3% in a season...it never happens. Conversely, there have been examples of good players shooting 20%
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True, but I was trying to get at the fact that McLeod's goal totals are unlucky while his assist totals are lucky.
 
If anyone can pull of a 3% shot percentage, it's a muffin-thrower like McLeod. Todd Marchant clone.
 
Looks like he's gone scoreless in his last 3, still only 1 goal in 12 games? I haven't been able to watch any games, can anyone comment?
 
WhiskeyYourTheDevils said:
Looks like he's gone scoreless in his last 3, still only 1 goal in 12 games? I haven't been able to watch any games, can anyone comment?
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He doesn't have great offensive IQ and Tippett is driving the line. He'll obviously score at a higher rate soon just based on shot percentage rising, but I have seen little improvement in his game from last year. Great skater and can create chances out of thin air, but doesn't have the hands or shot to capitalize. He plays the game faster than he thinks it. His linemate Tippett is the same way, but he has an amazing shot and good scoring instincts. Sauga for a bunch of reasons looks good on paper but is a very flawed team. Maybe Spencer Watson will help balance out the scoring when he returns (they just acquired him by trade).
 

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