C Michael McLeod (2016, 12th, NJD) Part II

[hototogisu]

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Previous thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1904431

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[Blender]

There were a lot of people predicting he wouldn't put up many points, but I think he's done well enough here to squash that narrative.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

There were a lot of people predicting he wouldn't put up many points, but I think he's done well enough here to squash that narrative.

He has 10 more points than what he scored last year

 

[Eric Sachs]

He has 10 more points than what he scored last year

11, actually.

An 18% increase from last year is pretty sizable. He can't even play in the AHL next year because of his age so I'd expect him to score even more next year when his age actually becomes an advantage..

 

[VoidCreature]

Looking back through the early pages of the first thread, there were a lot of comparisons to Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, Jason Spezza and Blake Wheeler. One brave poster even brought up Mike Modano. It looks like the first concerns about his upside started circulating when Alex Nylander left for the WJC and McLeod didn't produce well in his absence. Stuff about his shot having good velocity, but not being very accurate or well placed.

In his draft +1 he had 14 points in 4 games without Owen Tippett in the lineup. He started slow on the goal scoring, but now has 20 goals in his last 30 games. I haven't watched him extensively, but from the highlights it looks like he's shooting differently. Out of all his goals this year, maybe three of them have been from somewhere other than the blue paint. He's got quick hands, and he's putting the puck through and around goalies from close in. I don't know if he's gotten stronger, but he's driving the net a lot more effectively than he did last year. With his size and speed he looks unstoppable at times.

This is a guy who was projected as a top 5, even top 3 pick for the first three months of the season last year. I'm starting to see why.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

He was 13th in p/g in the OHL. He definitely projects as a top 6 fwd

 

[93LEAFS]

11, actually.

An 18% increase from last year is pretty sizable. He can't even play in the AHL next year because of his age so I'd expect him to score even more next year when his age actually becomes an advantage..

Adjusted for age its about on par with what he did last year. Last year's age and league adjusted ppg was 1.14, this year is 1.11 (with one game left). To keep on par with that, he would need to put up roughly between 110 to 115 over 68 games next season. If he was to play 56 games (because at the very least he should miss some games for NHL camp and WJC), he would need around 95-100. This isn't a situation like Kyrou or Cliff Pu, where their rapid improvement in ppg actually has improved relative to what you expect will naturally occur as a player gets older in junior.

His numbers are fine this year, but I don't think they really move the needle one way or the other on his ability to be a 2nd line or higher center.

 

[The Great Dame]

He has 10 more points than what he scored last year

Are you implying that an increase from 1.07 Pts per game to 1.28 is only a marginal increase? Because it's not, especially given the loss of Alex Nylander.

 

[93LEAFS]

Are you implying that an increase from 1.07 Pts per game to 1.28 is only a marginal increase? Because it's not, especially given the loss of Alex Nylander.

It is marginal given that he is now a year older in a league with an age requirement. He basically kept pace with what is expected. Yes, they lost Alex Nylander, but Tippett, McLeod and Bastian are now a year older, plus they added a very good overrager (Spencer Watson).

 

[Baemon Severson*]

It is marginal given that he is now a year older in a league with an age requirement. He basically kept pace with what is expected. Yes, they lost Alex Nylander, but Tippett, McLeod and Bastian are now a year older, plus they added a very good overrager (Spencer Watson).

No matter how you slice it, being 13th in ppg is pretty impressive, along with his skating, defense and 60% face off percentage

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

not to mention most of the guys ahead of him in points per game are older

 

[93LEAFS]

No matter how you slice it, being 13th in ppg is pretty impressive, along with his skating, defense and 60% face off percentage

He's basically stayed the course as a prospect, which is fine. I don't think he's done anything to raise or decrease his stock. OHL also doesn't really have many elite forward prospects in it this year outside of Strome. It is good that he basically stayed the course, while the other CHL centers drafted around him have had disappointing seasons statistically (both PLD and Brown's age-adjusted numbers rapidly decreased). But, I don't think his numbers improved enough that if you doubted his ability to be an offensive center at the NHL level, that you all of a sudden have to re-evaluate. He didn't have a rapid improvement like Sam Steel where you have to start re-evaluating him.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

He's basically stayed the course as a prospect, which is fine. I don't think he's done anything to raise or decrease his stock. OHL also doesn't really have many elite forward prospects in it this year outside of Strome. It is good that he basically stayed the course, while the other CHL centers drafted around him have had disappointing seasons statistically (both PLD and Brown's age-adjusted numbers rapidly decreased). But, I don't think his numbers improved enough that if you doubted his ability to be an offensive center at the NHL level, that you all of a sudden have to re-evaluate. He didn't have a rapid improvement like Sam Steel where you have to start re-evaluating him.

He was getting a lot of shade thrown his way for being Darren Helm )or basically pigeon-holed as a 3C.) I think he's shown enough to be a 40-50 point two-way force who will give a defense fits. This player profiles as a very good 2C. I mean, things can change, but I think you have to be happy with him at 12th overall.

 

[93LEAFS]

not to mention most of the guys ahead of him in points per game are older

He's still behind a decent amount of people from his own draft class, Mascherin, Debrincat (late birthday), Raddysh, Kyrou, and Pu. Nick Suzuki is younger. Only older guys ahead are Dylan Strome, Palmu, Bracco, Moore, Sherwood, and Watson.

 

[Agent Zuuuub]

Not to mention that he's a physical beast compared to most of the players in the OHL. Mcleod is more skilled but it's like when Lazar scored 41 goals in his draft +1 because of his physical advantage.

His offense translating has to do his lack of hockey IQ.

What's weird is that he actually has pretty good vision, which IMO is a big part of hockey IQ. So maybe things will "click" eventually. He certainly has skill and speed to become a top 6 player or he could become a Paajarvi.

 

[VoidCreature]

Not to mention that he's a physical beast compared to most of the players in the OHL. Mcleod is more skilled but it's like when Lazar scored 41 goals in his draft +1 because of his physical advantage.

His offense translating has to do his lack of hockey IQ.

What's weird is that he actually has pretty good vision, which IMO is a big part of hockey IQ. So maybe things will "click" eventually. He certainly has skill and speed to become a top 6 player or he could become a Paajarvi.

A lot of people throw the word "hockey IQ" around when they have an opinion they can't justify. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you need to be a lot more specific about what you mean. Saying he has bad hockey IQ could mean so many different things, you might as well just say you don't like him.

 

[Baemon Severson*]

I mean, his draft +1 numbers are identical to Horvat's. He also didn't play on a super team like Bo. Not saying he's gonna be better but the comp is interesting

 

[Mathletic]

A lot of people throw the word "hockey IQ" around when they have an opinion they can't justify. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you need to be a lot more specific about what you mean. Saying he has bad hockey IQ could mean so many different things, you might as well just say you don't like him.

I try to follow prospects who are divisive. I tried to pay attention to McLeod this season and see what some like in him. There's a lot to like from him like his effort, skating, and so on. However, I often hear that he's a great defensive player. Personally, that's a part of his game that has often been a letdown for me. He often gets caught out of position, defensively, making bad reads. Also, I think he does a fairly poor job of managing his speed. It's great that he pushes the pace all the time but pro's will adapt to that pretty quickly. Players like Yakupov just can't blow by everybody in the NHL like they did in junior. He has some assets but he doesn't use them particulary well. May also explain why he hasn't done as well against good teams. It's clear he can exploit weak defenses, with his skating, however. Also. he doesn't do that good a job getting open either. He goes to the net, that's great, but at some point you have to get open, so your teammates can feed you the puck. At to that an unimpressive shot, that's all stuff to work on IMO.

 

[Eric Sachs]

I try to follow prospects who are divisive. I tried to pay attention to McLeod this season and see what some like in him. There's a lot to like from him like his effort, skating, and so on. However, I often hear that he's a great defensive player. Personally, that's a part of his game that has often been a letdown for me. He often gets caught out of position, defensively, making bad reads. Also, I think he does a fairly poor job of managing his speed. It's great that he pushes the pace all the time but pro's will adapt to that pretty quickly. Players like Yakupov just can't blow by everybody in the NHL like they did in junior. He has some assets but he doesn't use them particulary well. May also explain why he hasn't done as well against good teams. It's clear he can exploit weak defenses, with his skating, however. Also. he doesn't do that good a job getting open either. He goes to the net, that's great, but at some point you have to get open, so your teammates can feed you the puck. At to that an unimpressive shot, that's all stuff to work on IMO.

Still haven't seen any stats to back up this claim. Would love to see them, honestly. Seems like it mostly grew from anecdotal evidence and well, I'd like to see actual evidence.

 

[Mike27Devils]

I try to follow prospects who are divisive. I tried to pay attention to McLeod this season and see what some like in him. There's a lot to like from him like his effort, skating, and so on. However, I often hear that he's a great defensive player. Personally, that's a part of his game that has often been a letdown for me. He often gets caught out of position, defensively, making bad reads. Also, I think he does a fairly poor job of managing his speed. It's great that he pushes the pace all the time but pro's will adapt to that pretty quickly. Players like Yakupov just can't blow by everybody in the NHL like they did in junior. He has some assets but he doesn't use them particulary well. May also explain why he hasn't done as well against good teams. It's clear he can exploit weak defenses, with his skating, however. Also. he doesn't do that good a job getting open either. He goes to the net, that's great, but at some point you have to get open, so your teammates can feed you the puck. At to that an unimpressive shot, that's all stuff to work on IMO.

Do you watch games? He constantly makes him self available for passes on the rush and in the zone. I think one of his attributes actually is making him self available for easy passes. That's a pretty curious statement from what I've seen of him.

 

[Mathletic]

Still haven't seen any stats to back up this claim. Would love to see them, honestly. Seems like it mostly grew from anecdotal evidence and well, I'd like to see actual evidence.

vs. top-12 teams
McLeod: 26 pts in 28 gp (0.93 ppg)
Pu: 47/39=1.21
Tippett: 33/30=1.1
Kyrou: 64/46=1.39
Suzuki: 53/35=1.51
Cirelli: 28/31=0.93
Thomas: 36/40=0.9
Strome: 43/21=2.05

PPG vs. top-12 teams / PPG overall
McLeod: 0.72
Pu: 0.89
Tippett: 0.87
Kyrou: 0.98
Suzuki: 1.02
Cirelli: 0.72
Thomas: 0.90
Strome: 0.96

Do you watch games? He constantly makes him self available for passes on the rush and in the zone. I think one of his attributes actually is making him self available for easy passes. That's a pretty curious statement from what I've seen of him.

You said it, on the rush.

 

[Cheddabombs]

I like the McLeod pick

 

[evnted]

he's been lights out since returning from WJC. hope that's more indicative of his play than the initial part of the season. also hope i get to watch MISS in the playoffs this year. sadly only get to see highlight reels for now, but did catch a bunch of BWK with Quenneville last year so im optimistic

 

[Baemon Severson*]

vs. top-12 teams
McLeod: 26 pts in 28 gp (0.93 ppg)
Pu: 47/39=1.21
Tippett: 33/30=1.1
Kyrou: 64/46=1.39
Suzuki: 53/35=1.51
Cirelli: 28/31=0.93
Thomas: 36/40=0.9
Strome: 43/21=2.05

PPG vs. top-12 teams / PPG overall
McLeod: 0.72
Pu: 0.89
Tippett: 0.87
Kyrou: 0.98
Suzuki: 1.02
Cirelli: 0.72
Thomas: 0.90
Strome: 0.96



You said it, on the rush.

28 games is not a huge sample size, and he's nearly PPG in those games anyway. I'm not sure you proved much here. You make it seem like he's .5 ppg or something

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I like how nearly a point per game is "not doing well against top teams"

I am sure the Crosbys and McDavids of the world are putting all their points up against the 1995 Devils trap