C Leo Carlsson (2023, 2nd, ANA)

[majormajor]

Are u saying that Fantilli is almost double as good as Carlsson?

No I'm saying that boxscore is on some weird trip.

When one player (Fantilli) has twice the scoring rate of the other, you can't say it is "borderline criminal" he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

That and the idea that Fantilli has had some generous linemate situation is laughable, he's played even minutes with just about everyone and I'd say playing with Troy Terry is better than most (all?) of them.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

No I'm saying that boxscore is on some weird trip.

When one player (Fantilli) has twice the scoring rate of the other, you can't say it is "borderline criminal" he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

That and the idea that Fantilli has had some generous linemate situation is laughable, he's played even minutes with just about everyone and I'd say playing with Troy Terry is better than most (all?) of them.

Unfortunately, under the Ducks new head coach Cronin, he kinda sucks the life out of finesse, scoring forwards. Meat and potatoes scoring forwards like McTavish thrives when healthy b/c he dragged up Vatrano and Strome. But McTavish got hurt around the 20 game mark of the season and everyone's been struggling to put up points.

GF
Columbus = 225 goals (77 games)
Anaheim = 188 goals (77 games)

 

[Boxscore]

All Star level players, Laine, Gaudreau & Co

Laine, Werenski, and Gaudreau have been all-stars. And the latter was 2 years removed from a 115 point season. Are we going to pretend these players didn't exist? Zach Werenski has 52 points this season in an injury-riddled 65 games. The Ducks highest scoring D has 34 points in 76 games. This offseason the Jackets were one of the teams most hockey "experts" believed were going to take a major step. Gaudreau was going into his 2nd season and was more familiar with the team. Laine and Werenski were healthy. The D was bolstered with Severson and Provorov. And the hot shot youngsters were expected to add a jot of excitement with Fanatilli, Johnson, and Marchenko.

 

[Boxscore]

When one player (Fantilli) has twice the scoring rate of the other, you can't say it is "borderline criminal" he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

How is Fantilli's 27 points in 49gp (0.55 ppg) twice the scoring rate of Carlsson's 26 points in 50gp (0.52ppg)?

 

[ZEBROA]

No I'm saying that boxscore is on some weird trip.

When one player (Fantilli) has twice the scoring rate of the other, you can't say it is "borderline criminal" he didn't outshine Leo by a wide margin.

That and the idea that Fantilli has had some generous linemate situation is laughable, he's played even minutes with just about everyone and I'd say playing with Troy Terry is better than most (all?) of them.

I really thought Fantilli would outscore Carlsson with quite a lot. Specialy goals. But overall i dont think any of the two outdone the other. I belive Carlsson has more gears, but who knows, he might never reach them.

 

[majormajor]

I really thought Fantilli would outscore Carlsson with quite a lot. Specialy goals. But overall i dont think any of the two outdone the other. I belive Carlsson has more gears, but who knows, he might never reach them.

He'll reach them.

But I'd probably rather he was in the AHL this last half of the year than with the Ducks though, given how little he's scored. It's important to keep his confidence up.

How is Fantilli's 27 points in 49gp (0.55 ppg) twice the scoring rate of Carlsson's 26 points in 50gp (0.52ppg)?

Fantillli's scoring per minute at 5v5 is literally almost double:

Carlsson played 14:08 per game at 5v5 and scored 1.09 points per 60.

Fantilli played 12:30 per game at 5v5 and scored 2.05 points per 60. Almost double. You can adjust for team 5v5 goals and it still isn't going to be close.

You can see it yourself on Natural Stat Trick.

 

[Boxscore]

Fantillli's scoring per minute at 5v5 is literally almost double:

Who cares? As long as there's special teams, and players expected to take on versatile roles throughout their careers, why would we isolate a specific stat and use that to compare two players who played 49 and 50 games respectively as rookies? That's as absurd as saying, "Carlsson has tripled Fantilli's goals on the PP so he's a special teams dynamo and Fantilli shouldn't sniff the PP."

The universal narrative the day the Ducks selected Carlsson over Fantilli was... "Fantilli is more developed and is going to outscore Carlsson by a lot in the beginning until Carlsson rounds out his game down the line." Most fans were parroting that narrative, pointing to Fantilli's "already explosive offensive game" and that he was stepping into a room with more talent than Carlsson.

I see no reason to pivot now and try to make excuses because these guys pretty much scored on par this season. It is what it is. Pretty much everyone believed Fantilli could likely be the better offensive player while Carlsson could be a more well-rounded player. So what happens if Fantilli never truly blows Carlsson away in the scoring department?

 

[LuGBuG]

Scoring per minute. Lol.

Carlsson looks like a real gem. I am more then happy with the pick.

 

[Kshahdoo]

The real discussion will start when Michkov joins the league...

 

[majormajor]

Who cares?

I do not care. I'm a huge Leo Carlsson fan and I like Fantilli a lot too. But you're the guy who said it was "borderline criminal" that Fantilli didn't outshine him! So maybe you might be interested in learning how their scoring actually compared in year one. I guess not!

As long as there's special teams, and players expected to take on versatile roles throughout their careers, why would we isolate a specific stat and use that to compare two players who played 49 and 50 games respectively as rookies? That's as absurd as saying, "Carlsson has tripled Fantilli's goals on the PP so he's a special teams dynamo and Fantilli shouldn't sniff the PP."

5v5 scoring rate is a standard workhorse measure that I use regularly to evaluate players. It's not a niche stat. It's very useful for looking at rookies especially because some of them get 2 or 3 times as much ice time as others, and some play on PP1 while others get zero PP time.

I see no reason to pivot now and try to make excuses

That's all you've done going back two pages in this discussion! Try working on the self awareness.

 

[Leonardo87]

2 Goals tonight, 4 points in his last 3 games.

 

[HanSolo]

What a crap pick (smoked one off the crossbar earlier; the only reason he didn't rain down hats at Honda Center by now)

 

[Boxscore]

5v5 scoring rate is a standard workhorse measure that I use regularly to evaluate players.

That's great that you use it. You can use any tool to measure, or have any opinion of, any player you like. But that doesn't mean it carries more weight than other measurements and opinions.

I stand by the fact that the moment Carlsson was drafted ahead of Fantilli, most of the people these forums, on social, etc. swore that Fantilli was going to offensively outclass Carlsson, especially early in their careers. If we're being fair, I think you may want to acknowledge that. That fact that these kids scored on par doesn't discredit Fantilli as much as it shows that Carlsson can be as potent offensively as him. I don't see a problem with that.

I'm a Leafs fan, not a Ducks or Jackets fan. I have no horse in this race whatsoever... other than I preferred Carlsson to Fantilli by a hair on draft day and my opinion was in the large minority, which is also okay.

 

[190Octane]

Missed in the shootout… bust!

 

[HanSolo]

Missed in the shootout… bust!

Michkov would've scored.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I have zero concern that Carlsson will be anything less than an elite center. He's going to be great.

But this is some shoddy work. Columbus does not have a better situation for a young scorer to come into. Both Columbus and Anaheim lack leadership, they both have a lot of talented misfits and young unripened talent.


Carlsson played 14:08 per game at 5v5 and scored 1.09 points per 60.

Fantilli played 12:30 per game at 5v5 and scored 2.05 points per 60. Almost double. You can adjust for team 5v5 goals and it still isn't going to be close.

That's cool and all, but games are not only played at 5v5. You are missing the total landscape of a player.

2023-24
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PP G	PP A	PP Pts		ES G	ES A	ES Pts
Carlsson	51​	12​	16​	28​	-9	3​	5​	8​		9​	11​	20​
Fantilli	49​	12​	15​	27​	-21	1​	2​	3​		11​	13​	24​

Of course, Carlsson is still playing and has added to his point total recently. Past three games, Carlsson's notched 3g + 1a = 4 pts and a +2 rating. It maybe premature to close the book on Carlsson's stats. Even with Carlsson's recent offensive burst, there are many factors to consider.

Fantilli scoring more at 5v5 could mean he's got a better scoring 5v5 team than Carlsson.

• Per Natural Stat Trick 5v5 GF:
  • Columbus = 164 GF (#11 best)
  • Anaheim = 120 GF (#30 best)
    Columbus has a +44 GF at 5v5 advantage over the Ducks! Guess team 5v5 scoring environment matters.

But what about factoring in the PP productions? Fantilli is vastly lacking in this area.

• Per Natural Stat Trick PP GF:
  • Columbus = 31 PP GF (#32 best)
  • Anaheim = 40 PP GF (#26 best)
    The difference in GF between the two aren't as expansive as they are at 5v5. That should mean Fantilli's PP points should be a lot closer to Carlsson's productions since both team's PP suck.

But wait, there's more...

• Even Strength Defensive Zone Starts (Scroll down to Skater Advanced Statistics)
  • Carlsson = 49.2%
  • Fantilli = 37.2%
    That looks like a much favorable starting point for Fantilli, especially when factoring in points/60 because Fantilli is already starting in the OZone more than Carlsson.

We haven't even addressed the the +/- stat either.

 

[Boxscore]

The real discussion will start when Michkov joins the league...

I don't think it will. If we believe the word on the street, Michkov was only interested in playing in Philly (or with a select few teams) and that he wasn't interested in the Ducks. And, if that's true, then the Ducks would have been insane to draft him ahead of Carlsson, unless they were confident they could convince him to sign or felt they could flip him for a trade return better than Carlsson (highly unlikely).

Michkov will be in the "where does he rank among the best in his draft" conversation, but the Carlsson vs. Fantilli thing will be a topic of conversation and debate among Ducks fans for a decade lol. And, to that, I say, "Sleep well, Ducks fans, you have a gem!"

 

[Kshahdoo]

I don't think it will. If we believe the word on the street, Michkov was only interested in playing in Philly (or with a select few teams) and that he wasn't interested in the Ducks. And, if that's true, then the Ducks would have been insane to draft him ahead of Carlsson, unless they were confident they could convince him to sign or felt they could flip him for a trade return better than Carlsson (highly unlikely).

Michkov will be in the "where does he rank among the best in his draft" conversation, but the Carlsson vs. Fantilli thing will be a topic of conversation and debate among Ducks fans for a decade lol. And, to that, I say, "Sleep well, Ducks fans, you have a gem!"

It was said the only team he really didn't wanna play for was Arizona. I think he would be crazy to refuse to live and play in California...

 

[majormajor]

That's cool and all, but games are not only played at 5v5. You are missing the total landscape of a player.

2023-24
Player	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	PP G	PP A	PP Pts		ES G	ES A	ES Pts
Carlsson	51​	12​	16​	28​	-9	3​	5​	8​		9​	11​	20​
Fantilli	49​	12​	15​	27​	-21	1​	2​	3​		11​	13​	24​

Of course, Carlsson is still playing and has added to his point total recently. Past three games, Carlsson's notched 3g + 1a = 4 pts and a +2 rating. It maybe premature to close the book on Carlsson's stats. Even with Carlsson's recent offensive burst, there are many factors to consider.

Fantilli scoring more at 5v5 could mean he's got a better scoring 5v5 team than Carlsson.

• Per Natural Stat Trick 5v5 GF:
  • Columbus = 164 GF (#11 best)
  • Anaheim = 120 GF (#30 best)
    Columbus has a +44 GF at 5v5 advantage over the Ducks! Guess team 5v5 scoring environment matters.

But what about factoring in the PP productions? Fantilli is vastly lacking in this area.

• Per Natural Stat Trick PP GF:
  • Columbus = 31 PP GF (#32 best)
  • Anaheim = 40 PP GF (#26 best)
    The difference in GF between the two aren't as expansive as they are at 5v5. That should mean Fantilli's PP points should be a lot closer to Carlsson's productions since both team's PP suck.

But wait, there's more...

• Even Strength Defensive Zone Starts (Scroll down to Skater Advanced Statistics)
  • Carlsson = 49.2%
  • Fantilli = 37.2%
    That looks like a much favorable starting point for Fantilli, especially when factoring in points/60 because Fantilli is already starting in the OZone more than Carlsson.

We haven't even addressed the the +/- stat either.

The discussion boxscore started was strictly about offensive production. I haven't said anything about how these two players stack up overall on the season. Didn't even imply it. You're welcome to delve further into that.

I did say though that if you were to adjust for team 5v5 scoring, the scoring rates still wouldn't be close. Columbus scores 36% more 5v5 goals than Anaheim, the gap between Fantilli and Carlsson's 5v5 scoring rates is a lot bigger than that.

 

[Boxscore]

The discussion boxscore started was strictly about offensive production. I haven't said anything about how these two players stack up overall on the season. Didn't even imply it. You're welcome to delve further into that.

I did say though that if you were to adjust for team 5v5 scoring, the scoring rates still wouldn't be close. Columbus scores 36% more 5v5 goals than Anaheim, the gap between Fantilli and Carlsson's 5v5 scoring rates is a lot bigger than that.

Well, if the NHL is going to remove penalties, then we should revisit. Until then, I don't know how it's fair to isolate overall production to one stat, when we can just look at the offense overall lol. PPs happen and PP goals can win games just as much as a 5v5 goal, no?

And, let's say we throw the entire stat book out the window and resort to the eye test. Carlsson just flat-out has looked better than Fantilli in the games they've played. Bigger goals, more eye-popping plays. And, to be brutally honest, this was the area I expected Fantilli to beat Carlsson in for a few years. I've been extremely impressed by Carlsson. He's smooth as butter, big, smart, and his goal scoring mitts are WAY better than most gave him credit for heading into the season.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I stand by the fact that the moment Carlsson was drafted ahead of Fantilli, most of the people these forums, on social, etc. swore that Fantilli was going to offensively outclass Carlsson, especially early in their careers. If we're being fair, I think you may want to acknowledge that. That fact that these kids scored on par doesn't discredit Fantilli as much as it shows that Carlsson can be as potent offensively as him. I don't see a problem with that.

Got it now......you were somehow ''offended'' by that and now you feel the need to totally downgrade Fantilli.

One thing you are missing constantly. This is nothing against Carlsson who probably will be a great player for years to come but the fact you talk a lot of nonsense about Fantilli. Though, we now understand why.

 

[Gliff]

The real discussion will start when Michkov joins the league...

Michkov could be a top 5 player in the league and it wouldn't make a difference in the world to me. He wanted to play in a big market and Anaheim aint it. I would much rather take the safe-bet big #1 center who will spend his whole career here over Michkov who legit may have never stepped foot in Anaheim.

Fantilli is the guy that Carlsson should actually be compared to for Anaheim, and I'm very happy with the decision.

 

[coooldude]

As a sharks fan, and therefore highly credible because my future pain will correlate strongly to Ducks success, I'm more worried about Carlsson's career than if they had drafted Fantilli.

Off topic, but I'm less worried about Gauthier, except he'll be annoying.

I hate that Michkov bleeds into every thread because of about three posters who are everywhere, but I firmly believe that either directly or indirectly he signaled to both ANA and SJS that he wasn't very interested to play for them. The agent is on the record about Arizona, but the full quote was about non hockey markets, which I believe he meant included the CA teams and probably CBJ also. Grier was very terse and annoyed when asked if they had talked to him and answered only "we talked to every Russian player we wanted to." Either way, ANA got a gem in Carlsson, if he can stay healthy.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

As a sharks fan, and therefore highly credible because my future pain will correlate strongly to Ducks success, I'm more worried about Carlsson's career than if they had drafted Fantilli.

Off topic, but I'm less worried about Gauthier, except he'll be annoying.

I hate that Michkov bleeds into every thread because of about three posters who are everywhere, but I firmly believe that either directly or indirectly he signaled to both ANA and SJS that he wasn't very interested to play for them. The agent is on the record about Arizona, but the full quote was about non hockey markets, which I believe he meant included the CA teams and probably CBJ also. Grier was very terse and annoyed when asked if they had talked to him and answered only "we talked to every Russian player we wanted to." Either way, ANA got a gem in Carlsson, if he can stay healthy.

I’m just excited about the ducks and sharks matchup in about 2-3 years…. Should be a lot of fun. I hate the debates on fantilli michkov carlsson…. It’s getting old real quick … all 3 will be solid players. Hope they all pan out and are very successful.

Gauthier likely won’t be the game changer that guys like zegras and carlsson can be…. But man he’s gunna have a lot of chances to be a really good goal scorer…. Zegras and carlsson are both such good passers/play makers…. They just need a guy that can put the puck in the net…. Which is something we lack at the moment. He basically fits like a glove in terms of needs for us…. And hopefully Colangelo can have a similar it (in more of a depth role)

 

[Leto]

As a sharks fan, and therefore highly credible because my future pain will correlate strongly to Ducks success, I'm more worried about Carlsson's career than if they had drafted Fantilli.

Off topic, but I'm less worried about Gauthier, except he'll be annoying.

I hate that Michkov bleeds into every thread because of about three posters who are everywhere, but I firmly believe that either directly or indirectly he signaled to both ANA and SJS that he wasn't very interested to play for them. The agent is on the record about Arizona, but the full quote was about non hockey markets, which I believe he meant included the CA teams and probably CBJ also. Grier was very terse and annoyed when asked if they had talked to him and answered only "we talked to every Russian player we wanted to." Either way, ANA got a gem in Carlsson, if he can stay healthy.

As a side note, there were reports prior to the draft that Columbus was going to have a meeting with Michkov. At the draft, Kekalainen indicated they did not meet him in the end. It's not clear whether Michkov refused or Columbus canceled it, but Columbus was on the record about drafting a center.​