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C Dylan Larkin (2014, 15th, DET)

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Mark Edwards said:
Wouldn't shock me. I'm a huge fan of Larkin. Once I saw him enough to convince myself that he had enough offense so that he could be more than a 3rd liner, his stock obviously increased for me. We have him ranked 9th at HP and I'm not predicting it, but wouldn't be shocked if he went off the board before our ranking.

High end player with seemingly very little bust risk. Nice combo.
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He screams of a Jets type 1st round pick. Bit of a riser, High character, good IQ, great compete, with nice skill. Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, and Larkin that group has allot in common as far as "type of kid"
 
Hes going to go in the ten-fifteen range I'd bet. Lots of good players in that area but I dont see him slipping past the wings who need some center prospects and hes from Detroit
 
Larkin scoring top ten in VO2 means he is close to a sure thing based on history of the test at the combine.

Dissecting the 2014 NHL Draft Combine
Aerobic Fitness - VO2 Max:

An interesting test that gauges half genetics/half current conditioning. The top few scores traditionally rival VO2's of low end, elite marathon runners.

The underlying correlations found are that the top scoring VO2 'maxxers' are either your elite prospects or total duds. If a rated first rounder shows up on this test, he should be a lock selection (Hertl, Baertschi, Klefbom). If he's not highly regarded, run away.

Quite confusing, but not really if you look at this more closely. If a top rated talent all year shows up on this test you can gather that (A) he has the natural skills to make the NHL, (B) he has a high genetic potential to be fit on ice (even if it is only part of the value), and (C) his conditioning is not a question mark and already there. Signs pointing to the ultimate draft pick if there continues to be an established trend.

On the flipside, if you're looking at a lower rated prospect, well, apply those principles and it is a damning statement against his future in the NHL. If a player scores high on this test, yet isn't regarded highly for his talent in season, one could draw the assumption that he was unable to capitalize and impress even with such a great fitness level. It is evident that these players usually do not find that precious development curve.

BUY: Dylan Larkin, Brayden Point
SELL: Alex Schoenborn, Josh Wesley
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newfy said:
Hes going to go in the ten-fifteen range I'd bet. Lots of good players in that area but I dont see him slipping past the wings who need some center prospects and hes from Detroit
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Grew up a Wings fan, no less. It would be pretty awesome to draft him. His stock is so high right now, though, and it seems like guys like Perlini, Honka, and McCann are shuffling down. Worse yet, he has to get past some really shrewd drafting teams in order to get to Detroit. In particular, I think Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas could all steal him away.
 
If Larkin is still on the board at 20, I fully expect the Sharks to take him. He's the prototypical SJ pick: a two-way center with high IQ, decent size and a lack of high-end offensive skill.

That last bit isn't meant to be a knock on Larkin at all; I like him a lot and would be fine with the pick, but he doesn't have huge offensive upside. I see him as a solid 40-50 point center who wins face-offs, kills penalties and wears a letter.
 
Guru Meditation said:
Grew up a Wings fan, no less. It would be pretty awesome to draft him. His stock is so high right now, though, and it seems like guys like Perlini, Honka, and McCann are shuffling down. Worse yet, he has to get past some really shrewd drafting teams in order to get to Detroit. In particular, I think Winnipeg, Nashville, and Dallas could all steal him away.
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Pretty sure that's not true. Take a look at his twitter... he's been a Leafs fan growing up.

Not that that matters at all when it comes to the draft :dunno:
 
Leidi J said:
Pretty sure that's not true. Take a look at his twitter... he's been a Leafs fan growing up.

Not that that matters at all when it comes to the draft :dunno:
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http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?id=622672

He said he's a Wings fan, but it could be argued that he didn't say it in a very convincing way. Plus, the pic of him in a Leafs hat might say otherwise. Oh well, though. It's not like being a fan is any kind of real factor on who drafts him.
 
Birko19 said:
Hoping the Wings take neither, this is one of those drafts where I would like them to take a risk. Larkin comes across like a future Mike Fisher at best.
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All prospects are a risk. I'm really not sure what you mean, you'd prefer the Wings take a guy who has less of a chance to make the NHL?
 
drw02 said:
All prospects are a risk. I'm really not sure what you mean, you'd prefer the Wings take a guy who has less of a chance to make the NHL?
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I think he means picking a guy who is a boom or bust type of player, for example Nylander is that kind of player or even Jakub Vrana.
 
Ray Ferraro said:
I think he means picking a guy who is a boom or bust type of player, for example Nylander is that kind of player or even Jakub Vrana.
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I know, that just seems strange to me. With your 1st round pick you'd usually prefer as sure a thing as you can get. Mid-late round picks are more for the boom/bust players imo.

I wouldn't consider Nylander a boom or bust player. He has elite talent and NHL bloodlines. Vrana is a better example, or maybe someone like Scherbak or Goldobin. But imo their potential upside isn't really significantly higher.
 
drw02 said:
I know, that just seems strange to me. With your 1st round pick you'd usually prefer as sure a thing as you can get. Mid-late round picks are more for the boom/bust players imo.

I wouldn't consider Nylander a boom or bust player. He has elite talent and NHL bloodlines. Vrana is a better example, or maybe someone like Scherbak or Goldobin. But imo their potential upside isn't really significantly higher.
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I don't think Nylander is a boom/bust either but then again I don't think Nylander will be available at 15. I'm talking about someone like Scherbak for example, he kind of reminds me of Malkin or perhaps Nichushkin is a better comparison. I would rather take a shot at that than Larkin.
 
Dylan Larkin

Gets talked about less than either Milano or Tuch. Shot up from nowhere and landed ranked ahead of both in Bob McKenzie's compilation based on input from various scouts around the National Hockey League. He's ranked all the way up to 12th overall by NHL scouts. Ahead of much more heralded Sonny Milano (18th) and Alex Tuch(17th). Nobody talks about him, though.

What's the story? Tell me everything there is to know about this kid.

How does he compare to JT Compher, for example?

He's ranked higher than Milano and Tuch despite a fairly significant disparity in points per game this season (USDP and USHL combined):

Larkin 86gp 82pt
TUch 87gp 96pt
Milano 83gp 125pt
 
Speculation but maybe because some scouts believe Tuch and Milano have been feeding off Eichel's skill, obviously they still have skill but maybe some points have been fed off?
 
He's a similar player to Compher, a responsible two-way player that is good in every facet of the game, but not elite in any. He's got good wheels, solid offensive instincts, and is a good competitor. I question what his offensive upside is, but he's a relatively safe pick because at the very worst, his well-rounded game makes him a good third liner.
 
What puts Larkin ahead is the way he approaches the game. From what I've seen he creates a lot of things without the puck. He constantly moves his feet, causes a lot of turnovers. He seems really determined to help make things easier for his teammates by creating space in the offensive/neutral zone or backchecking really hard to support the defensemen. Milano may have a greater offensive upside but Larkin looks effective overall.

Milano strikes me as a one dimensional forward. Very effective and creative in the offensive zone and could be a difference maker, but looks too passive without the puck. He can be gritty at times but shows some defensive deficiencies.

I'm really not high on Tuch. From what I've seen he doesn't use his size that often and doesn't really initiate plays. He looked like he benefited from playing with Eichel and Milano. As a Habs fan he reminded me a lot of a playoff version of Pacioretty.
 
Normally I wouldn't ask people how am amateur in Michigan stacks up to an amateur in Edmonton, because usually anyone who offers an opinion is full of **** and hasn't seen both play. However, because Curtis Lazar has such a high profile and has been on so many national broadcasts, I think I can get some informed opinions on this one:

How does Larkin compare to Lazar?
 
Ray Ferraro said:
Speculation but maybe because some scouts believe Tuch and Milano have been feeding off Eichel's skill, obviously they still have skill but maybe some points have been fed off?
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There's no doubt they benefit from Eichel, but they all benefit from each other. My feeling from the games I've seen is that Tuch is the guy who benefits most on that line, while Milano generates quite a lot. I think Tuch's the better prospect though, and I'd take either over Larkin. I'd still be thrilled to have Larkin in the system as he fits in with a lot of the prospects Buffalo has (Girgensons, Compher, Larsson to name a few), but I'd slot him third among these 2014 forwards. I have them all pretty close on my board, and that's with a good chunk of the 1st round being close to begin with.

If I got to watch more of the USNTDP I could see switching that opinion around because Larkin is my kind of player.
 
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I can't for the life of me understand why anybody would rank Tuch above Larkin. Tuch was in a much, much better situation to put up points. I'm skeptical of how his offensive game will round out.

Larkin, to me, offers everything Tuch does, but better, with the exception of size. But size doesn't really mean anything when you have the complete game of Larkin.
 
hockeyfreak7 said:
Larkin, to me, offers everything Tuch does, but better, with the exception of size. But size doesn't really mean anything when you have the complete game of Larkin.
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Agreed. Larkin may not have Tuch's size, but he offers way more grit and seems like a real trouble to play against.
 
I read he is committed to University of Michigan. So, it looks like Larkin is probably not a guy who will break the Red Wings mold by entering the NHL young, as was suggested by one of the NBCSN hosts. He's probably more of a part of the long-term plan.

His rank has been pretty steady, meaning that he's likely a pretty sure bet. I like this pick.
 
DetroitRed said:
I read he is committed to University of Michigan. So, it looks like Larkin is probably not a guy who will break the Red Wings mold by entering the NHL young, as was suggested by one of the NBCSN hosts. He's probably more of a part of the long-term plan.

His rank has been pretty steady, meaning that he's likely a pretty sure bet. I like this pick.
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Definitely won't be rushed, but that's nothing new for the Wings. This really helps the center depth in the prospect pool, and it seems like he's got a bit of size too.
 
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