C Connor Bedard - Regina Pats, WHL (2023 Draft) Part 4

[Vasilevskiy]

Eichel was literally a top 10 scorer in the league before COVID cut the season short, while playing for the buffalo sabres. He was on pace for like 44 goals and 94 points as a 23 year old and was a legitimate Hart contender until buffalo faded.


But all that doesn't matter. He was a world class prospect who goes first in every draft year from 2006-2022 except for 2015.

People don't remember how incredible was Eichel's draft season in the NCAA.
It's completely fair to compare him to Bedard's season... a month ago people compared Fantilli to Bedard and Eichel was easily better than Fantilli.

I do think Bedard is a better offensive player than Eichel but when you have to project a prospect, the toolbox of Eichel could have made him a top 3 player in the league. Unfortunately he has not become that.

 

[Corso]

People don't remember how incredible was Eichel's draft season in the NCAA.
It's completely fair to compare him to Bedard's season... a month ago people compared Fantilli to Bedard and Eichel was easily better than Fantilli.

I do think Bedard is a better offensive player than Eichel but when you have to project a prospect, the toolbox of Eichel could have made him a top 3 player in the league. Unfortunately he has not become that.

I certainly remember and looking back on how he dominated one of college hockey's best conferences I really thought he was flirting with the generational tag and would live up to it as he embarked on his career. I also remember that many posters on here (some who now are saying that they would easily take eichel over bedard) were saying that the difference between McDavid and Eichel was minuscule and basically you could flip a coin as to which was going to have a better NHL career. Hell I'll be honest and say I thought the same as Eichel had me completely glamorized by his point production in the NCAA where, as most poster here assured me, was a much stronger league than the younger CHL.
Of course looking back on it, I believe that very few scouts worth their salt had Eichel over McDavid or anywhere close to McDavid. Bob McKenzie's survey of 10 NHL scouts had all 10 pick McDavid first.....there was NO DEBATE, other than on this forum and their respective play over the past 7 years has borne that out. McDavid is generational and Eichel is not and never was but and this is a big but, the way Eichel played during his freshman year at B.U. had everyone believing he was as close to generational as there was and you can understand why as he seemed to have all the tools to be one. So it's not hard to see why some poster are still saying they would take Eichel over Bedard. They would be wrong of course, as they were 7 years ago when they were saying that they would seriously consider Eichel over McDavid. Bedard is a special player and most NHL scouts know that.

 

[GrizzGreen]

Still has potential to be a much better player. I take my chances with Bedard over 1st round golfer Mathews any day of the week. Bedard at 17 is more mature and a better leader than Mathews could ever be.

So maybe it's time for you to lay off the meth. Stop dancing around, and talking to the lamp post on my street corner.

You take potential over proven talent, not much more to say here with that reductive reasoning lmao

 

[daver]

Best comparison for Bedard's WHL offensive production are McDavid's and Crosby's respective CHL production:

At age 15

Bedard - 28 points in 15 games (1st in team scoring, 20th in the W, 1st in PPG (min. 15 games)

Crosby - N/A

McDavid - 66 points in 63 games 2nd in team scoring, 30th in the O, 29th in PPG (min. 50 games)


At age 16

Bedard - 100 points in 62 games (1st in team scoring, 4th in the W, 3rd in PPG (min. 50 games)

Crosby - 135 points in 59 games (1st in the Q, clear 1st in PPG, won CHL MVP)

McDavid - 99 points in 56 games 2nd in team scoring, 4th in the O, 2nd in PPG (min. 50 games)


At age 17

Bedard - 64 points in 28 games (1st in the W, clear #1 in PPG (min. 20 games)

Crosby - 168 points in 62 games (1st in the Q, dominant #1 in PPG, won CHL MVP)

McDavid - 120 points in 47 games 2nd in team scoring, 2nd in the O, clear #1 in PPG (min. 50 games)


Crosby reached Mario-like domination in the Q but arguably did not have the top end talent that McDavid and Bedard had in their 16/17 year old seasons.


Notable International performances:

Bedard (age 16) - wins U18, T1st in scoring, scores 6 goals and 9 points in three Medal Round games

Bedard (age 17) - multiple Canadian WJC records broke and tied through only 4 games

McDavid (age 17) - wins U18. 1st in scoring setting Canadian records in goals and points,

McDavid (age 17) - wins WJC, T1st in scoring

Bedard showed a talent to rise to occasion in the U18s (notably against another generational prospect in Michkov) and so far in the 2023 WJCs. McDavid's resume was as advertised in the U18s and the WJCs. Crosby had the most underwhelming international resume but notably was part of the greatest WJC team ever assembled and was not relied on to lead his team at age 17 like McDavid and Bedard.

The two most notable #1 picks with generational pre-draft CHL resumes are Tavares and Lafreniere. Tavares was never really seen to be as good as his 16 year old season. To a certain extent, Lafreniere never had the vibe that his two seasons in the Q were representative of his offensive ceiling in the NHL (so far he way below expectations).


McDavid was high end speed plus high end hands

Crosby was an overall offensive machine.

Bedard has a generational shot and goalscoring ability plus elite playmaking.

 

[Daximus]

You seem to be basing your argument on physical tools; something that traditionally separates players with similar offensive resumes/ceilings as prospects.

Bedard is clearly superior offensively with no reason to think his offensive ceiling would regress in the NHL as smaller players (if you can actually describe Bedard as small) have been able to excel in the league lately (St. Louis, Kane, Gaudreau). Eichel's offensive ceiling wasn't going to rise just because he was bigger.

What are the comparables for Eichel's age 17/18 season in Hockey East/NCAA to indicate he was close to Bedard offensively?

Bedard is actually slightly bigger than Patty Kane was at the draft and I remember people thinking Kane stood no chance of reaching his potential in the NHL because of his size. Kane went on to have one of the more productive rookie seasons in recent times and I think his career has born out that you don't need to have insane physical tools to be a great player. He is quick, elusive and has great reactions. All things Bedard possesses. Kane had a great shot but I don't think it was ever considered to be on the level that Bedard has.

Really when I look at Patty Kane and then I look at Bedard I see very similar players with Bedard's shot being on a higher tier. They both are quick but not blazing fast, they both have insanely good edgework, can work in tight spaces and can stickhandle around guys in a phone booth. They both have very high end vision and playmaking ability and see the ice extremely well. Both are monsters on the PP.

Bedard just has that uncanny ability where you don't think he's doing much until he gets the puck streaks in on the wing and fires it top corner from distance, or grabs the puck skates into the zone and launches a no look pass to a wide open team mate for the easy one timer. Or he just dangles through 3 guys and dekes out the goalie to launch it top shelf on the backhand. He's a massive triple threat on offence. Lots of players have that elite shot, or elite playmaking or elite stickhandling to generate offence. Very few players have all 3 at such a young age.

 

[ijif]

Eichel and Matthews both had similar NHLe production in their draft years while both being much bigger.

People are putting waaay too much stock into his (incredibly impressive) WJC production.

They were also older than Bedard during their draft seasons. I think that is worth mentioning.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You seem to be basing your argument on physical tools; something that traditionally separates players with similar offensive resumes/ceilings as prospects.

Bedard is clearly superior offensively with no reason to think his offensive ceiling would regress in the NHL as smaller players (if you can actually describe Bedard as small) have been able to excel in the league lately (St. Louis, Kane, Gaudreau). Eichel's offensive ceiling wasn't going to rise just because he was bigger.

What are the comparables for Eichel's age 17/18 season in Hockey East/NCAA to indicate he was close to Bedard offensively?

They're really aren't many comparables for what Eichel did in HE because pretty much nobody has done what he did. But NHLe uses aggregate data.

NHLe Calculator - Frozen Tools

NHL Equivalency calculator from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

Eichel's 71p in 40gp in hockey east translates to 57p in 82gp in the NHL.

Bedard's 64p in 28gp in the WHL also translates to 57p.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I question how NHLe can possibly be a useful tool for a kid whose on pace for the 2nd highest U18 PPG over a full season ever in the WHL. The highest of which was set in 1986. He is basically setting the bar for what an elite of the elite u18 WHL season is at this point. We have never really seen this out of this league yet. When he is setting the bar who can you possibly compare him to?

You could say the same thing about Eichel in the NCAA.

 

[Daximus]

You could say the same thing about Eichel in the NCAA.

Oh I'm not disputing that Eichel had one hell of a season in the NCAA and the fact he was actually able to put up a challenge to McDavid was incredible. Very similar situation where he put up probably the best U19 NCAA season since Kariya in 93.

But his NHLe was actually substantially lower than Bedard's is right now if that is the marker you want to use.

Eichels draft year NHLe was 41.
Bedards is currently 57.

Edit: My bad did the wrong calculation they are even.

My point still stands though, NHLe is a bad tool for using as the be all end all of evaluating talent.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Oh I'm not disputing that Eichel had one hell of a season in the NCAA and the fact he was actually able to put up a challenge to McDavid was incredible. Very similar situation where he put up probably the best U19 NCAA season since Kariya in 93.

But his NHLe was actually substantially lower than Bedard's is right now if that is the marker you want to use.

Eichels draft year NHLe was 41.
Bedards is currently 57.

Edit: My bad did the wrong calculation they are even.

My point still stands though, NHLe is a bad tool for using as the be all end all of evaluating talent.

It's a terrible tool as the end all be all. But Eichel was the total package as well. World class skating, extremely powerful, long reach, a missile of a shot, great vision, hands, and creativity. He could do a lot of things that Bedard simply couldn't.

 

[daver]

It's a terrible tool as the end all be all. But Eichel was the total package as well. World class skating, extremely powerful, long reach, a missile of a shot, great vision, hands, and creativity. He could do a lot of things that Bedard simply couldn't.

Except play hockey at a higher level.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

It's a terrible tool as the end all be all. But Eichel was the total package as well. World class skating, extremely powerful, long reach, a missile of a shot, great vision, hands, and creativity. He could do a lot of things that Bedard simply couldn't.

Eichel no doubt had some incredible tools but I think Bedard has him beat with his shot, creativity, vision, and hands.

Time will tell obviously but I think Bedard thinks the game a step ahead of Eichel as well.

 

[wetcoast]

It's super impressive, it doesn't mean he's on the same level as McDavid or Crosby.

I agree with this but he is also a level higher than hughes as a draft year prospect and that's the hill that you appear to be dying on here.

Of course we don't know how Bedard's NHL career will ultimately turn out but it's a reasonable and fair take heck even a more likely one that he will exceed Hughes career path.

 

[Daximus]

It's a terrible tool as the end all be all. But Eichel was the total package as well. World class skating, extremely powerful, long reach, a missile of a shot, great vision, hands, and creativity. He could do a lot of things that Bedard simply couldn't.

I think Bedards shot arsenal is noticeably better at the same age, not that Eichels is bad by any means I just think Bedard is ahead with his total shot package. Eichel is definitely faster but Bedard is far shiftier and his edgework is better IMO plus he can stickhandle as well as anyone. I also think Bedards vision, IQ, ability to read the play and passing is on another level as a prospect. Eichel has him beat substantially in two way game. Bedards best as a counter attacker, he can read plays so well that his bread and butter is just picking off passes before the other team even enters the zone and while he's not a blazing fast speedster once he has a step on you, good luck getting the puck back. For a small guy he protects it extremely well and with his ability to get a shot off from anywhere in any position he's a threat to score even when you think you have him covered.

 

[Dack]

He was unlucky to not get 3+ points against the Czechs. He could legitimately have had 20+ points in 4 games.

 

[Tanknomore]

You take potential over proven talent, not much more to say here with that reductive reasoning lmao

I take a Bedard that could potentially be as good as McDavid. Is only 17, over a Mathews that will be 26 , a soon to be free agent, does not have much leadership, has slowed down this year, etc. Etc. So how is that for reasoning.

No rebuilding team would ever tade Bedard over any player on the NHL. That's includes McDavid. Unless that said team was already a cup contender then I could see it. But Bedard over Mathews in a trade, get real Leaf fans. Keep dreamin' thinking Mathews is worth that.

 

[daver]

Not sure why Eichel is being talked about here. If he was one of the best prospects from 2010 onwards, he certainly hasn't met the hype.

Downplaying Bedard by pointing out that Eichel has disappointed despite high expectations makes more sense.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Not sure why Eichel is being talked about here. If he was one of the best prospects from 2010 onwards, he certainly hasn't met the hype.

Downplaying Bedard by pointing out that Eichel has disappointed despite high expectations makes more sense.

He's had 1-2 seasons where he began to live up to the hype. But in large part he's failed to meet expectations. I do think much of his struggles are due to his situation and injuries though.

Could definitely happen to Bedard.

 

[gimbznyr]

Not sure why Eichel is being talked about here. If he was one of the best prospects from 2010 onwards, he certainly hasn't met the hype.

Downplaying Bedard by pointing out that Eichel has disappointed despite high expectations makes more sense.

Because he is American. Notice how one poster is hung up on Hughes and Eichel while making multiple comments regarding the "Canadian hype machine"...Lots of brainlet takes in here for a guy shattering records at the wjc for a 17 year old

 

[lomiller1]

NHLe is far from the ultimate argument, but coupled with other factors it can be a reliable tool in projecting talent. Eichel being the bigger guy AND better skater are two hugely important factors that scouts consider, especially for centers.

It can be, but you need to keep in mind that there needs to be actual comparables for it to work. There are no real comparables for Bedard, his WHL numbers are just too far above other 17 year olds put up in that league for NHLe to have anything to grasp onto. Makar's NHLe suffered from similar issues in the AJHL, his NHLe was fairly low even though he was producing at the upper level of what was reasonably possible in that league. Bedard is doing the same, but in a higher caliber league that has produced a LOT of great NHL players over the years.

You also need to take into account who he's playing with in Regina. There is very little talent around him which limits hit opportunity to get points via assist. His play in the U20's backs this up, give him someone to pass too and he's instantly the best playmaker in the world under 20 years old, and he's been the best U20 player in the world since he was 16.

 

[Daximus]

It can be, but you need to keep in mind that there needs to be actual comparables for it to work. There are no real comparables for Bedard, his WHL numbers are just too far above other 17 year olds put up in that league for NHLe to have anything to grasp onto. Makar's NHLe suffered from similar issues in the AJHL, his NHLe was fairly low even though he was producing at the upper level of what was reasonably possible in that league. Bedard is doing the same, but in a higher caliber league that has produced a LOT of great NHL players over the years.

You also need to take into account who he's playing with in Regina. There is very little talent around him which limits hit opportunity to get points via assist. His play in the U20's backs this up, give him someone to pass too and he's instantly the best playmaker in the world under 20 years old, and he's been the best U20 player in the world since he was 16.

It's a similar thing to Eichel's numbers as well in the NCAA there was a solid body of work for guys producing at lower clips than him but as of this millenium there hasn't been anyone who has produced like that so it makes it much tougher to find comparables. Eichel becomes the new comparable that you can look at and say yeah okay this is the bar for what an elite NCAA draft season can look like.

Bedard is doing the exact same thing for the WHL. No one has produced like him in 37 years and the last guys that produced like him produced in a league that had much higher average scoring.

NHLe does well in leagues like the Q and OHL where we have the benchmarks for what an elite producing season can look like but players like Eichel and Bedard are basically setting the mold. You can't even really compare them to each other because the crossover isn't full proof between the WHL and NCAA. And there are a lot more factors at play them simply just trying to convert the production.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

You just witnessed history folks.

 

[gimbznyr]

You just witnessed history folks.

He ain't no Hughes :

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Bedard is dominant against WJC talent to a degree McDavid simply wasn’t.

Super weak competition this year . He’s gonna be great no doubt but there’s like 3 half decent teams in the tournament outside of Canada

 

[peconcan]

Super weak competition this year . He’s gonna be great no doubt but there’s like 3 half decent teams in the tournament outside of Canada

I don’t like calling it due to weak competition when nobody else has even close to as many points as him. I’m not saying he’s Gretzky but it’s like when people say Gretzky only put up his numbers due to the era he played yet nobody else came even close to him