C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

[Panthaz89]

This is shiny new toy syndrome if I’ve ever seen it. The top 3 are McDavid Matthews and Mack.

Bedards skating is fine but I think it is ultimately what holds him back from being compared to these 3. Matthews skating isnt elite either but its a lot better than Bedards, and Matthews is 6’3 210

shiny new toy? He's a much bigger gamebreaker than either of Matthews and Mack were as prospects. He flat out dominates the ice with the puck on his stick.

 

[Naster Okan]

I’ve found my way to the salt factory.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Oh god here we go again

Well, I'm sorry you are excited to watch great talent emerge, but you must have a short memory.

Lafreniere was the second two time CHL Player of the Year Twice (and before being drafted). Only equaled by Crosby.

Jack Hughes has numerous records at the NTDP. Most points ever. Most assists ever. You could go on and on.

Matthews held the single season NTDP scoring record (done the season before his draft-season). It eventually got broken years later.

Eichel was the second Hobey Baker Winner as a Freshman. Only equaled by Kariya. Since tied by Fantilli.

Shane Wright had the highest U16 PPG in OHL history. It eventually got broken years later by Misa. He also had the highest ever PPG at the WJC18 for a U17. I'm sure it'll eventually get broken. His team Canada U17 total points record was already broken by Celebrini.

I could go on and on. These individual stats people bring out just aren't that relevant. The guys that tend to be the best in a particular age group usually do break records and win tons of awards. Yeah, we know they are great and dominate against lesser competition. That's great, but it's not the NHL. The NHL game tends to expose flaws. The NHL has exposed flaws in literally all those players once they got there.

The only recent player that stepped into the NHL and pretty much was the dominant player he was at lower levels was Connor McDavid, and that's why he's generational and the others that people want to make generational aren't. It seems like people want there to be 8 generational players per generation. Does that seem odd? Bedard has flaws in his game that will likely put him in the former category, and why he can't reach McDavid's category, unless he simply defies the odds. It's not all about accomplishments pre-NHL. The lower level accomplishments don't. guarantee you a ticket to being generational in the NHL. What does is do you have the absolute generational talent to dominate the best league in the world. Sorry, but I think if you were to be honest about it, the answer is that he doesn't have that but will be an excellent player, like the one's I mentioned above.

He put up the 2nd best offensive numbers, including the best goalscoring numbers, for a CHL prospect in close to 40 years.

If anything can be called a "ton" better, that would be it.

Jack Hughes broke plenty of NTDP scoring records too. I think if you wanted to be objective, they look like similar players in how their games translate to the NHL.

There's nothing wrong with being marginally better than Jack Hughes as a prospect. Jack Hughes was a great prospect, and has since become one of the prolific scorers in the NHL. At the same time, there are drawbacks to his game. He absolutely sucks on face-offs. One of the worst in the league. He's so bad at them that often times New Jersey will put a natural center on his line to take his face-offs. Being 5'10 (potentially a generous listing because he skipped the combine testing and there's no neutral source that has measured him) is part of that. It's hard to battle in the dot with dudes 6 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier.

Bedard, to his credit, didn't skip the measurement and clocked in less than a true 5'10, but tall enough that he rounds up to 5'10. He's not going to have the same weight issue Hughes had early in his NHL career, as he's 185 pounds. He's a lot stockier, but there are probably going to be times he goes into puck battles with dudes that are 210 pounds, and he gets out-muscled. Hughes has this problem. Hughes has improved his defense and scores pretty well on a lot of the metrics, but he's still not a guy that you see in all situations or throwing big hits or being a defensive ace. This part of his game has improved enough that it's not a liability, but yeah there are not many guys that are great defensively being undersized for a reason. It takes a very particularly type of skillset, and neither of these guys have it. Basically everyone has flaws. That isn't a bad thing, unless your expectations are that Bedard is something he isn't.

Bedard does not skate as well as Hughes. Small guys gotta skate at a level someone that is 6'1 or 6'2 doesn't to be successful in the NHL, with few exceptions. Bedard skates well enough, so it won't keep him from being the player he can be, but space is a lot more limited than Junior and when you aren't a dynamite skater, it'll be a test for him to find other ways to impact games. Bedard doesn't pass the puck as well as Hughes either. And that's not some huge slight. He shoots the puck a lot better than Hughes, so it goes with the idea that he's a similar profile, except a lot more shooting than passing.

So I don't know what's offensive about that. Hughes was a borderline MVP candidate in his fourth year. He was billed as Patrick Kane with a chance to stick at center. Being a little better than that is quite good. That is unless you have expectations for Bedard that maybe aren't realistic.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Bedard will be really good

 

[ello]

Bedard had 6x more points than Hughes did in their draft year world juniors lol.

More than 2x more than his closest teammate on team Canada (23 vs stankovens 11), all as a 17 YEAR OLD

Im sorry its valid to cite his lack of size and speed as a concern, but his statistical profile at every level has been such an outlier that all of this dialogue about being so certain that he'll never reach Crosby/McDavid levels is peak smartest-guy-in-room syndrome

 

[daver]

Jack Hughes broke plenty of NTDP scoring records too. I think if you wanted to be objective, they look like similar players in how their games translate to the NHL.

How did his draft year compare with other NTDP players like Eichel and Matthews? If I recall, he wasn't anything special in comparison to Eichel or Matthewss' 16 year old season while Bedard's CHL comparables are Wayne, Mario and the arguably the best CHL pre-draft player ever, Crosby.

And whatever Bedard did in the WHL/CHL, he backed up, if not surpassed, in international play. He is the clearly superior player pre-draft than Hughes and is inarguably on the same tier as Lindros, Crosby and McDavid.

It's cool to to the contrarian so long as it is reasonable. This is not one of those cases.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Sorry, but I think if you were to be honest about it, the answer is that he doesn't have that but will be an excellent player, like the one's I mentioned above.

In the same way that McDavid’s skating is a unicorn trait that makes him generational, Bédard has a shot and in zone offensive game that is as good as I’ve seen dating back to Sidney Crosby. Whilst I will agree with you his not-McDavid level skating (which is still 9/10 I would say, similar to a Marner or Barzal skater) will not make him as dangerous in transition as McDavid, due to his bulk and perhaps best ever shot for a prospect, I think he checks the box for generational prospect due to his once in a lifetime shot and hockey iq/vision that is on par with McDavid. As for Lafrenière, Matthews, Eichel, and Hughes, i can tell you having been in person for both the 2015/17/19 CMJ that they are nowhere close to bédard’s level as prospects.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Bedard had 6x more points than Hughes did in their draft year world juniors lol.

More than 2x more than his closest teammate on team Canada (23 vs stankovens 11), all as a 17 YEAR OLD

Im sorry its valid to cite his lack of size and speed as a concern, but his statistical profile at every level has been such an outlier that all of this dialogue about being so certain that he'll never reach Crosby/McDavid levels is peak smartest-guy-in-room syndrome

If you wanted to be fair, you'd note that Hughes was injured and missed multiple games that World Juniors. He also wasn't given the "go to guy" role, nor did he play the year before and get accustomed to it in that sense. The tournaments have also become watered down the last few years due to the war. So when you add it all up, it's not really a great comparison to use their World Juniors at that age when the circumstances were so different.

Yeah, Bedard was great. Excellent. Take nothing away from him for that, but the fact that Hughes didn't light up that World Juniors doesn't mean he wasn't on a similar plane. The circumstances simply didn't line up for him to dominate the World Juniors in his draft year. With different circumstances, maybe he does.

 

[duul]

In the same way that McDavid’s skating is a unicorn trait that makes him generational, Bédard has a shot and in zone offensive game that is as good as I’ve seen dating back to Sidney Crosby. Whilst I will agree with you his not-McDavid level skating (which is still 9/10 I would say, similar to a Marner or Barzal skater) will not make him as dangerous in transition as McDavid, due to his bulk and perhaps best ever shot for a prospect, I think he checks the box for generational prospect due to his once in a lifetime shot and hockey iq/vision that is on par with McDavid. As for Lafrenière, Matthews, Eichel, and Hughes, i can tell you having been in person for both the 2015/17/19 CMJ that they are nowhere close to bédard’s level as prospects.

To liken Bedard's speed to Barzal is absurd. They're nothing alike. Bedard is a below average NHL skater at the moment. It's going to hinder any 18 year old when they're that young going against men and can't skate by them.

McDavid was the best player in the world as a rookie because of his speed and shiftiness. Bedard has neither of those things.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How did his draft year compare with other NTDP players like Eichel and Matthews? If I recall, he wasn't anything special in comparison to Eichel or Matthewss' 16 year old season while Bedard's CHL comparables are Wayne, Mario and the arguably the best CHL pre-draft player ever, Crosby.

And whatever Bedard did in the WHL/CHL, he backed up, if not surpassed, in international play. He is the clearly superior player pre-draft than Hughes and is inarguably on the same tier as Lindros, Crosby and McDavid.

It's cool to to the contrarian so long as it is reasonable. This is not one of those cases.

Hughes draft year he was absolutely dominant. His U18 season he had the single season PPG record at the NTDP. Not total points because of less games played, but PPG. People like to talk about Perreault and Smith breaking Matthews record for points in an NTDP season. The only reason Hughes didn't have that record is because he missed a bunch of games because he was away at the World Juniors, and then he had an injury right around those months too. So in essence, he kind of lost his chance to dominate the World Juniors, like Bedard was able to, and then lost his chance at the single season points record because of the injury sustained there. Then at the WJC18 that year, he was one point off Nikita Kucherov's record for most in a WJC18 tournament. Smith has since tied Hughes, which makes it seem less impressive, but I think in general we have to be true that these tournaments have become more watered down since the war.

What's funny is I'm not really being contrarian. I think those who've been around for a while with this stuff and have seen all these players come through recognize that they are all in the same tier. At the time, the hype takes over that they are generational every draft year for clicks and discussion and all that, but when you evaluate it over the long haul, it does tend to check out that there are a bunch of guys of a similar level below McDavid, and people usually order them in very different ways. None are generational, but otherwise great players that will likely have excellent NHL careers.

 

[wetcoast]

He'll be better.

As a player probably but not as a skater.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

In the same way that McDavid’s skating is a unicorn trait that makes him generational, Bédard has a shot and in zone offensive game that is as good as I’ve seen dating back to Sidney Crosby. Whilst I will agree with you his not-McDavid level skating (which is still 9/10 I would say, similar to a Marner or Barzal skater) will not make him as dangerous in transition as McDavid, due to his bulk and perhaps best ever shot for a prospect, I think he checks the box for generational prospect due to his once in a lifetime shot and hockey iq/vision that is on par with McDavid. As for Lafrenière, Matthews, Eichel, and Hughes, i can tell you having been in person for both the 2015/17/19 CMJ that they are nowhere close to bédard’s level as prospects.

If that's your own authentic opinion, I'm not going to tell you that you can't believe that.

However, what I will say is that this overdrive hype gets ramped up every single time one of these players who isn't ultra far off the generational level comes around. Then when they inevitably have a lot of success their draft year because they are the best in the world in their age group for a reason, people come up with all types of arguments why they are actually the exception and they are generational. I'm guilty of it too. I tried to make these arguments for Eichel being as good as McDavid and that he was actually generational too, but in hindsight I see where I made mistakes in doing that and it wasn't so. I sat through and observed these same things said about Matthews, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, and there were times people suggested it for Patrick and Wright before they backed off of it. We will probably hear it next year with Celebrini.

It's kind of just what's normal nowadays when there's a North American prospect that isn't too far from off that generational tag. They have to be billed as generational and how they are actually the exception. It'd be stupid for the media companies and the hockey world not to. It is so much better for hockey for that to be so, but I think trying to take the long view of it, there's a reason why generational is once every ten years. It hasn't been 10 drafts since McDavid. Sure, it's possible that it's not even dispersed every 10 drafts. Maybe it'll be 8 drafts here, 12 drafts there, 10 drafts here, 7 here, 13 there over the course of time, but I think Bedard is probably going to over time be looked at as the next group down from generational in a tier with players like Matthews, Lafreniere, Hughes, Eichel, Dahlin, and maybe one or two others.

 

[Mathieukferland]

If that's your own authentic opinion, I'm not going to tell you that you can't believe that.

However, what I will say is that this overdrive hype gets ramped up every single time one of these players who isn't ultra far off the generational level comes around. Then when they inevitably have a lot of success their draft year because they are the best in the world in their age group for a reason, people come up with all types of arguments why they are actually the exception and they are generational. I'm guilty of it too. I tried to make these arguments for Eichel being as good as McDavid and that he was actually generational too, but in hindsight I see where I made mistakes in doing that and it wasn't so. I sat through and observed these same things said about Matthews, Lafreniere, Hughes, Dahlin, and there were times people suggested it for Patrick and Wright before they backed off of it. We will probably hear it next year with Celebrini.

It's kind of just what's normal nowadays when there's a North American prospect that isn't too far from off that generational tag. They have to be billed as generational and how they are actually the exception. It'd be stupid for the media companies and the hockey world not to. It is so much better for hockey for that to be so, but I think trying to take the long view of it, there's a reason why generational is once every ten years. It hasn't been 10 drafts since McDavid. Sure, it's possible that it's not even dispersed every 10 drafts. Maybe it'll be 8 drafts here, 12 drafts there, 10 drafts here, 7 here, 13 there over the course of time, but I think Bedard is probably going to over time be looked at as the next group down from generational in a tier with players like Matthews, Lafreniere, Hughes, Eichel, Dahlin, and maybe one or two others.

Ok well we will have to agree to disagree which is fine. I can’t speak for others, but for me the guys you mention I never refer to any of them from generational. Eichel, Dahlin, and Celebrini i thought/think were franchise level prospects, and Hughes, Matthews, and Lafrenière I thought were first line elite at the time. Obviously hindsight I would organize that differently based on how their respective NHL careers have turned out, but it is to say I don’t throw out the generational tag for any random prospect.

My evaluation of Bédard’s game as generational, beyond his output (because, I think you would agree, if production determined generational status we would be talking about Gabriel Perrault as generational and Jordan Dumais as a franchise player) is that his skillset is so unique in terms of combing the ability to score from anywhere within 35 feet, vision that is akin to that of the very best à la Kane/McDavid, and the body strength and lateral movement of a Crosby or Kaprizov. Yes, his straight line speed in not McDavid, but his body deception and utilisation of his power to exploit off footed defensive is on par with the best transition threats even if his straight line speed is not as rapid as McDavid or MacKinnon

 

[Mathieukferland]

To liken Bedard's speed to Barzal is absurd.

I never said his speed, I said his skating. The way in which Marner and Barzal are able to move laterally very quickly and change direction is very similar to Bédard. The edge work if you will is what is similar, though I would agree his straight line speed is more similar to Marner than it is Barzal

 

[Naster Okan]

“Below average NHL skater”

 

[Tutu to]

For first OA picks:
McDavid
Matthews
Mackinnon
Bedard
Power

As a prospect Mackinnon doesn’t even come close to Bedard. I’m not even sure he would go second in this draft.

 

[Tutu to]

“Below average NHL skater”

I don’t understand how people see that. Of course he’s not McDavid in terms of skating but I feel Mitch Marner is a good comparable.

His overall skating will be well above average and better than Matthews.

 

[Panthaz89]

To liken Bedard's speed to Barzal is absurd. They're nothing alike. Bedard is a below average NHL skater at the moment. It's going to hinder any 18 year old when they're that young going against men and can't skate by them.

McDavid was the best player in the world as a rookie because of his speed and shiftiness. Bedard has neither of those things.

yeah and Wayne and Mario weren't good because they weren't as fast as McDavid clearly.....turns out hockey players are better than others at different things and Bedard isn't a below average skater that is beyond silly he's one of the best skaters.

 

[wetcoast]

For first OA picks:
McDavid
Matthews
Mackinnon
Bedard
Power

McDavid
Bedard
Dahlin
Matthews
Mack
Power

when it's all said and done.

No it isnt. Matthews is just a lot bigger, so it looks like he isn’t moving fast. But he gets around better than Bedard.

-signed someone who watched both Matthews and Bedard well over 30 times this year and 5 times live.

Even is AM is the better skater Bedard just has way more hockey IQ and the "it" factor.

 

[prongertheman9]

Why are some American posters so obsessed with tying to convince us that Hughes and Bedard were the same tier of prospect. It’s bizarre

 

[EmeticDonut]

All this idle speculation on how Bedard will compare to players who already have years in the league makes me want the season to just start already.

 

[Darkstar]

“Below average NHL skater”

Hawks win the Draft Lottery, and he suddenly went from generational to a tiny Dylan Strome.

 

[daver]

Hughes draft year he was absolutely dominant. His U18 season he had the single season PPG record at the NTDP. Not total points because of less games played, but PPG. People like to talk about Perreault and Smith breaking Matthews record for points in an NTDP season. The only reason Hughes didn't have that record is because he missed a bunch of games because he was away at the World Juniors, and then he had an injury right around those months too. So in essence, he kind of lost his chance to dominate the World Juniors, like Bedard was able to, and then lost his chance at the single season points record because of the injury sustained there. Then at the WJC18 that year, he was one point off Nikita Kucherov's record for most in a WJC18 tournament. Smith has since tied Hughes, which makes it seem less impressive, but I think in general we have to be true that these tournaments have become more watered down since the war.

Source? Looks like Matthews was just as productive at age 16: https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0065622015.html

And Eichel was three points off Hughes' draft year pace while on a team with less overall offensive support.

Again, Hughes' comparables are Matthews and Eichel while Bedard's are Wayne, Mario and Crosby.

Top 3 - 5 player in the league ceiling vs. Generational player ceiling.

 

[bigdog16]

Why are some American posters so obsessed with tying to convince us that Hughes and Bedard were the same tier of prospect. It’s bizarre

Why are Canadian posters obsessed with trying to convince us that Bedard is a McDavid/Crosby level prospect.

His ceiling isn’t as high as Mackinnon or Matthews who are truly elite big strong fast centers. We still don’t even know if Bedard will be a center at the next level.

 

[ijuka]

Why are Canadian posters obsessed with trying to convince us that Bedard is a McDavid/Crosby level prospect.

His ceiling isn’t as high as Mackinnon or Matthews who are truly elite big strong fast centers. We still don’t even know if Bedard will be a center at the next level.

23 points in 7 games at u-20s. MacKinnon at the same age scored 1 point. Matthews 3 points.