Panthaz89
Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Panthers fan
Ah yes i'm the delusional one after pointing out that he would have more of a season like Hughes rookies season than Matthews just because of teammates? You know how stupid that sounds.
C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6
- Thread starter GermanSpitfire
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Breakfast of Champs
Registered User
- Apr 15, 2007
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I still expect him to score 35+ goals as a rookie even on a poor team.
One thing about bedard is that he's not afraid to do it all himself, he's been doing it at the whl level for a few years now. He's going to get a bunch of goals here hes the only reason the team scored, and probably not many where others do the heavy lifting.
One thing about bedard is that he's not afraid to do it all himself, he's been doing it at the whl level for a few years now. He's going to get a bunch of goals here hes the only reason the team scored, and probably not many where others do the heavy lifting.
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 56,885
- 49,545
That would be incredibly disappointing given how often Bedard is compared to Crosby and McDavid. Both of those guys put up big totals as rookies (McDavid pro-rated), so adjustment to the league shouldn't be an excuse if he's on their level as a prospect.
Artorius Horus T
sincerety
2010 - 2022 1st overall rookie seasons
2010 : Tyler Seguin | 11+11=22 (0.30 ppg)
2011 : Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 18+34=52 (0.87 ppg)
2012 : Nail Yakupov | 17+14=31 (0.67 ppg)
2013 : Nathan Mackinnon | 24+39=63 (0.77 ppg)
2014 : Aaron Ekblad | 12+27=39 (0.49 ppg)
2015 : Connor McDavid | 16+32=48 (1.04 ppg)
2016 : Auston Matthews | 40+29=69 (0.84 ppg)
2017 : Nico Hischier | 20+32=52 (0.63 ppg)
2018 : Rasmus Dahlin | 9+35=44 (0.54 ppg)
2019 : Jack Hughes | 7+14=21 (0.34 ppg)
2020 : Alexis Lafreniere | 12+9=21 (0.37 ppg)
2021 : Owen Power | 4+31=35 (0.44 ppg)
2022 : Juraj Slafkovsky | 4+6=10 (0.26 ppg)
Its not easy to score goals and points as a rookie
avg goals : 13.4
avg assists ; 24.7
avg points : 38.1
avg ppg : 0.58
I'm more than satisfied with 20+ goals and 50+ points in 82 games from Bedard in his rookie season
that would put him 3rd best in point totals, after Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon.
Not as good as prospect as McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon but 4th best circa 2010 - today
2010 : Tyler Seguin | 11+11=22 (0.30 ppg)
2011 : Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 18+34=52 (0.87 ppg)
2012 : Nail Yakupov | 17+14=31 (0.67 ppg)
2013 : Nathan Mackinnon | 24+39=63 (0.77 ppg)
2014 : Aaron Ekblad | 12+27=39 (0.49 ppg)
2015 : Connor McDavid | 16+32=48 (1.04 ppg)
2016 : Auston Matthews | 40+29=69 (0.84 ppg)
2017 : Nico Hischier | 20+32=52 (0.63 ppg)
2018 : Rasmus Dahlin | 9+35=44 (0.54 ppg)
2019 : Jack Hughes | 7+14=21 (0.34 ppg)
2020 : Alexis Lafreniere | 12+9=21 (0.37 ppg)
2021 : Owen Power | 4+31=35 (0.44 ppg)
2022 : Juraj Slafkovsky | 4+6=10 (0.26 ppg)
Its not easy to score goals and points as a rookie
avg goals : 13.4
avg assists ; 24.7
avg points : 38.1
avg ppg : 0.58
I'm more than satisfied with 20+ goals and 50+ points in 82 games from Bedard in his rookie season
that would put him 3rd best in point totals, after Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon.
Not as good as prospect as McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon but 4th best circa 2010 - today
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Breakfast of Champs
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- Apr 15, 2007
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Well first of all Seguin was not 1st overall.
Second, league scoring is waay up from MacKinnon 's time as a rookie, his place among the league pts leaders (35th) would be 78 pts this season. Even Matthews rank would be more like 84 pts in the current league.
I think 50 pts, especially how the scoring is up so much, would be quite disappointing from bedard. Not that it would necessarily mean he still wouldn't be capable of putting up 100+ in the future, but definitely very disappointing. I'm expecting 75+ honestly, which isn't even likely to put him in the top 30 for pts. I would actually be less shocked to see him go 85+ than I would under 55, 55 points in today's NHL is actually nothing close to what it was 10 years ago or anything really special. Bedard is far better than Hughes was as a rookie, Hughes didn't have that shot and Bedard will likely score a lot more goals than Hughes did and be able to finish plays much more frequently. Hughes had all the perimeter skills but he wasn't able to get to the middle of the ice in the offensive zone like bedard is, and he was definitely weaker on the puck
75 pts isn't what it was when MacKinnon was entering the league and nobody was scoring 90
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You shouldn't be including the defensemen in this.
Breakfast of Champs
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- Apr 15, 2007
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Ya I'd like to see it without the D and also hall instead of Seguin....who went #1 OA.
Also maybe league rank for pts or ppg to get an idea of some sort of equivalent in the current higher scoring NHL
- Oct 23, 2014
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Maybe not as low scoring as Hughes' season was but I think he's gonna be more in the 40-50 point range.
He'll have free reign and probably play any situation he wants on a non-competitive team, but also not a lot of talent around him.
It's a shitty team he's going into, but if Bedard is a generational talent a 100+ point rookie season shouldn't surprise anyone.
He'll play with arguably the least support of any generational player entering the league, but accounting for the high scoring era, he should score above a point per game at the bare minimum to live up to the hype.
If he doesn't win Hart/Ross during his ELC it'll also be dissapointing. The guy arguably had the greatest draft season ever.
He'll play with arguably the least support of any generational player entering the league, but accounting for the high scoring era, he should score above a point per game at the bare minimum to live up to the hype.
If he doesn't win Hart/Ross during his ELC it'll also be dissapointing. The guy arguably had the greatest draft season ever.
He's a smarter and more gifted player than Hughes so he probably won't have a Hughes esque rookie season.
Matsun
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I think that no one is expecting a Jack Hughes rookie line form Bedard next season which was 61-7-14-21.
Heck I wouldn't be surprised is he didn't have that kind of line by the end of November.
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 56,885
- 49,545
But that's my point. If he's as good as Crosby/McDavid like some keep insisting, then 40-50 points will be a disappointment. Generational talent doesn't score 40-50 points as rookies, they come out of the gate and produce immediately.
When was the last generational (or even tier slightly down from generational) player scored only 40-50 points over a full season? McDavid did that in HALF a season's worth of games. Crosby scored twice that many as an 18 year old. Even going back to Eric Lindros, he scored at over a 50 goal, 90+ point pace in his rookie season.
Barring him missing time due to injury, Bedard should be in the 70+ range (at least) if he's as good as the hype suggests he is.
Yeah, I think at a minimum you should be expecting a rookie season comparable to Patrick Kane or Matthews if people are confident in labelling him generational. And you have to factor in league wide scoring trends.
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 56,885
- 49,545
Even Matt Duchene scored 55 points as an 18 year old rookie.
That's what separates these "generational" type prospects from your typical 1st overall pick who project to be very good. They're able to come in and be that elite level player pretty much from the start without needing a couple of years flirting with 40 points, followed by another year at 60 points, before finally scoring 80+.
I'm personally not sold on him as in the Crosby/McDavid bracket, but if people are sold on that, they should be expecting a guy who walks into the league as a top 10 player in the league. That's pretty much been the recent standard for guys with that label. I think he'll be an offensive dynamo, but probably closer to Patrick Kane, than the dominant force McDavid and Crosby entered the league in. Generational talents like Crosby and McDavid won Hart Trophies on their ELC.
Castle8130
Registered User
- May 9, 2017
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I put Bedard to a higher standard than most of these guys for two reasons;
1. He is a much more highly touted prospect
2. He is in a higher scoring era
That being said, if he leads the team with 58 points, I don't blame him because it's the teams fault. My expectation is for him to lead the team in scoring and have atleast 30 goals. If he gets 40+ goals or 70+ points, he has exceeded expectations. A 30g + 30a for 60 points is about what I expect with our crap roster.
I think the off season and who the Black Hawks surround with Bedard will be extremely interesting to say the least.
Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
hamzarocks
Registered User
"McGoat" is challenging and falling behind 99 and 66
If Mcdavid doesnt get some playoff rings he will end up 3rd all time not 1st.
Bedard should be a better player then Mcdavid by 2026-2027 at the latest
The team they are on has a big effect. Bedard will be playing for one of the worst NHL teams in recent memory. He and Reichel may be the only good players on the team.
Sidney the Kidney
One last time
- Jun 29, 2009
- 56,885
- 49,545
The Pens in Crosby's rookie season hardly had much to play with. Unless people think about 25 games of an old Lemieux and half a season of Palffy is stacked.
For a lot of the season, Crosby had Colby Armstrong and Michel Oullett on his line. Not exactly the type of linemates that can help a guy jump from 40-50 points (which was the discussion point) to 100+ points like Crosby got.
I agree. I still want to see how he translates to the NHL level first, so I think (right now) he'll be a slight notch below those two. But every thread, every article, I read about him talks about him as the next "generational" prospect, so if that's the case then he should be held to that type of standard.
Breakfast of Champs
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To be fair, I think most people would agree that if those 3 were in the same draft Bedard would likely be the 3rd player taken. I don't think there was a single person disputing Crosby as a generational talent, and although some definitely questioned Mcdavids ability to equal or surpass Crosby, there wasn't much denying he was easily the best prospect since. With bedard it seems like people are at least somewhat split between generational and "elite franchise" level. I personally think he is in the same category as the other 2 and easily the best prospect outside of them since Crosby, but I would agree he is probably going #3 if they are all in the same draft.
I'm not expecting 100 pts or top 3 in ppg like we saw from the other 2, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he got 40 goals and 80 points, which would be good for the best 18 year old season outside of those guys.
