C Berkly Catton - Spokane Chiefs, WHL (2024, 8th, SEA)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What would be his tools/qualities that would make you put Catton in front of guys like Celebrini, Demidov, Eiserman?

I’ve seen him play but not enough yet to actually have a big opinion.

Probably not a clean answer, but I think it's a combination, depending on the player.

So with players like Demidov or Eiserman, they are wingers. For wingers to go ahead of centers, they have to be clearly better than the center, at least as I view it.

And this is probably too much in the weeds, but I'd also be hesitant to take a winger first, unless they are a generational goal-scoring prospect (Ovechkin, maybe Michkov in another draft, Laine was a fair shout at the time). Is Eiserman that? Maybe, I'd probably lean against it, although I'm not suggesting he won't score a lot. Just not sure he'll be one of the yearly Rocket contenders. With players like Demidov that are more of a jack of all trades offensive winger, I think those players are easier in general to acquire. Not easy to acquire, but I'm not sure that's what I'm looking at 1OA, unless they are simply a better prospect than the rest, which may end up being the case with Demidov. We'll see. I also think we've seen with a player like Lafreniere at 1OA that the "sure-thing" two-way winger isn't as high floor as it may seem, and it's probably the least valuable type of winger you can get, so along with being less valuable already than a center, it's the least valuable type of winger.

Back to the point though about how he directly compares to those players, I think Celebrini is a little bigger. He's like 6'0, and Catton 5'11. They both skate very well. I would give Celebrini a slight edge on the defensive end, although I think Catton is pretty good there too. I think where Catton really separates from Celebrini is the pace he can make high skilled plays at. You don't see this that often with players where they can shift-after-shift make very high skilled plays at such a fast pace. Only a few in the NHL do this like McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, Hughes, and probably one or two others you could argue fit into that category. I think Catton projects as that type of player. There's a real electric quality to playing like that.

And I think generally there's a little more skill with Catton. His ability to manipulate the puck, change direction, process the game so quickly, and execute highly difficult passes is something that I think Celebrini can do well, but Catton can do extremely well. If you want to go further to a player like Levshunov, I think he's very good, but probably not a high-end enough player that I'd pass up a center that I think can be one of the most electric players in the NHL. He could end up a 1D, but I wouldn't say he's necessarily up there at this point with the best draft-eligible defensemen of the last 10 years.

tl;dr, So to nit it all together, I think Catton has the right boxes checked that you want out of that first overall pick. He's a center, he's a very good (borderline elite) skater, he's good defensively, and he has the potential offensively to be one of the league's most electric offensive players.

 

[pgfan66]

Yeah, that's a fair take. I'm not sure I agree with it, but I've definitely thought about that. I just can't get past that he didn't even lead the team in scoring or even come close (14 points behind Bertholet in 4 less games). And Bertholet is essentially a nothing prospect, so Catton didn't have a ton of competition to lead the team in scoring. I get the three years age difference and circumstances and stuff that someone who follows the team closely could probably explain, but Celebrini led the whole USHL in scoring, and Eiserman was breaking NTDP records. He actually had a higher PPG than Hagens. We could continue on past Celebrini and Eiserman. Demidov won MHL player of the year. Levshunov was 4th among USHL defensemen in points.

All of this is to say, I'm open to the idea that circumstances explain how it's not as bad as it seems, but I think it's also true that at the club level he wasn't as good as these other guys in his U17 season.

WOWY stats would be interesting here because I’m pretty sure Catton and Bertholet played like 2 minutes apart all season. They were usually together at 5 on 5 and on the PP and have great chemistry. And Bertholet might be a nothing prospect for the NHL, but he’s a high-end junior who, like you said, is 3 years older.

So not really sure what would’ve happened if you put Eiserman or Celebrini in that situation – they definitely could’ve outperformed Catton. But I’m not worried about Catton getting outscored by Bertholet last season.

 

[Tutu to]

Probably not a clean answer, but I think it's a combination, depending on the player.

So with players like Demidov or Eiserman, they are wingers. For wingers to go ahead of centers, they have to be clearly better than the center, at least as I view it.

And this is probably too much in the weeds, but I'd also be hesitant to take a winger first, unless they are a generational goal-scoring prospect (Ovechkin, maybe Michkov in another draft, Laine was a fair shout at the time). Is Eiserman that? Maybe, I'd probably lean against it, although I'm not suggesting he won't score a lot. Just not sure he'll be one of the yearly Rocket contenders. With players like Demidov that are more of a jack of all trades offensive winger, I think those players are easier in general to acquire. Not easy to acquire, but I'm not sure that's what I'm looking at 1OA, unless they are simply a better prospect than the rest, which may end up being the case with Demidov. We'll see. I also think we've seen with a player like Lafreniere at 1OA that the "sure-thing" two-way winger isn't as high floor as it may seem, and it's probably the least valuable type of winger you can get, so along with being less valuable already than a center, it's the least valuable type of winger.

Back to the point though about how he directly compares to those players, I think Celebrini is a little bigger. He's like 6'0, and Catton 5'11. They both skate very well. I would give Celebrini a slight edge on the defensive end, although I think Catton is pretty good there too. I think where Catton really separates from Celebrini is the pace he can make high skilled plays at. You don't see this that often with players where they can shift-after-shift make very high skilled plays at such a fast pace. Only a few in the NHL do this like McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, Hughes, and probably one or two others you could argue fit into that category. I think Catton projects as that type of player. There's a real electric quality to playing like that.

And I think generally there's a little more skill with Catton. His ability to manipulate the puck, change direction, process the game so quickly, and execute highly difficult passes is something that I think Celebrini can do well, but Catton can do extremely well. If you want to go further to a player like Levshunov, I think he's very good, but probably not a high-end enough player that I'd pass up a center that I think can be one of the most electric players in the NHL. He could end up a 1D, but I wouldn't say he's necessarily up there at this point with the best draft-eligible defensemen of the last 10 years.

tl;dr, So to nit it all together, I think Catton has the right boxes checked that you want out of that first overall pick. He's a center, he's a very good (borderline elite) skater, he's good defensively, and he has the potential offensively to be one of the league's most electric offensive players.

Off topic but how would you rank Catton,Celebrini,Misa and Gavin McKenna?

Who are their NHL comparisons?

 

[Mathieukferland]

Off topic but how would you rank Catton,Celebrini,Misa and Gavin McKenna?

Who are their NHL comparisons?

Stylistic comparisons not potential

1. Celebrini= Brayden Point

T2. Misa= Tyler Seguin
T2. McKenna= Jonathan Huberdeau

4. Catton= Seth Jarvis

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think he's a step below the top 3 forwards but that's completely fine and if he's the 4th best forward of a class, I don't think you can call it a weak class. It's probably between 2022 and 2023 in terms of quality at the top, of course things change in a hurry when we are talking about draft eligible teenagers.

 

[ValeriKamensky]

Really fun to watch, reminds me Tim Stuzle in his draft season.

 

[Postulates]

Probably not a clean answer, but I think it's a combination, depending on the player.

So with players like Demidov or Eiserman, they are wingers. For wingers to go ahead of centers, they have to be clearly better than the center, at least as I view it.

And this is probably too much in the weeds, but I'd also be hesitant to take a winger first, unless they are a generational goal-scoring prospect (Ovechkin, maybe Michkov in another draft, Laine was a fair shout at the time). Is Eiserman that? Maybe, I'd probably lean against it, although I'm not suggesting he won't score a lot. Just not sure he'll be one of the yearly Rocket contenders. With players like Demidov that are more of a jack of all trades offensive winger, I think those players are easier in general to acquire. Not easy to acquire, but I'm not sure that's what I'm looking at 1OA, unless they are simply a better prospect than the rest, which may end up being the case with Demidov. We'll see. I also think we've seen with a player like Lafreniere at 1OA that the "sure-thing" two-way winger isn't as high floor as it may seem, and it's probably the least valuable type of winger you can get, so along with being less valuable already than a center, it's the least valuable type of winger.

Back to the point though about how he directly compares to those players, I think Celebrini is a little bigger. He's like 6'0, and Catton 5'11. They both skate very well. I would give Celebrini a slight edge on the defensive end, although I think Catton is pretty good there too. I think where Catton really separates from Celebrini is the pace he can make high skilled plays at. You don't see this that often with players where they can shift-after-shift make very high skilled plays at such a fast pace. Only a few in the NHL do this like McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, Hughes, and probably one or two others you could argue fit into that category. I think Catton projects as that type of player. There's a real electric quality to playing like that.

And I think generally there's a little more skill with Catton. His ability to manipulate the puck, change direction, process the game so quickly, and execute highly difficult passes is something that I think Celebrini can do well, but Catton can do extremely well. If you want to go further to a player like Levshunov, I think he's very good, but probably not a high-end enough player that I'd pass up a center that I think can be one of the most electric players in the NHL. He could end up a 1D, but I wouldn't say he's necessarily up there at this point with the best draft-eligible defensemen of the last 10 years.

tl;dr, So to nit it all together, I think Catton has the right boxes checked that you want out of that first overall pick. He's a center, he's a very good (borderline elite) skater, he's good defensively, and he has the potential offensively to be one of the league's most electric offensive players.

I think it would be more likely than not

Eiserman set the record at U17 Worlds, Destroyed the NTDPs u17 single season goal record and came within 3 of the U18 one as an August 06 birthday. He also lead the u18s this year in goal scoring as a third line winger. He will probably smoke the overall NTDP goal record as well.

 

[WeThreeKings]

He was unreal today.. and seems to score or set-up the big goals for Canada this tournament.

I like the Stutzle comparison someone put above. Similar style, definitely.

 

[JackSlater]

Probably not a clean answer, but I think it's a combination, depending on the player.

So with players like Demidov or Eiserman, they are wingers. For wingers to go ahead of centers, they have to be clearly better than the center, at least as I view it.

And this is probably too much in the weeds, but I'd also be hesitant to take a winger first, unless they are a generational goal-scoring prospect (Ovechkin, maybe Michkov in another draft, Laine was a fair shout at the time). Is Eiserman that? Maybe, I'd probably lean against it, although I'm not suggesting he won't score a lot. Just not sure he'll be one of the yearly Rocket contenders. With players like Demidov that are more of a jack of all trades offensive winger, I think those players are easier in general to acquire. Not easy to acquire, but I'm not sure that's what I'm looking at 1OA, unless they are simply a better prospect than the rest, which may end up being the case with Demidov. We'll see. I also think we've seen with a player like Lafreniere at 1OA that the "sure-thing" two-way winger isn't as high floor as it may seem, and it's probably the least valuable type of winger you can get, so along with being less valuable already than a center, it's the least valuable type of winger.

Back to the point though about how he directly compares to those players, I think Celebrini is a little bigger. He's like 6'0, and Catton 5'11. They both skate very well. I would give Celebrini a slight edge on the defensive end, although I think Catton is pretty good there too. I think where Catton really separates from Celebrini is the pace he can make high skilled plays at. You don't see this that often with players where they can shift-after-shift make very high skilled plays at such a fast pace. Only a few in the NHL do this like McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, Hughes, and probably one or two others you could argue fit into that category. I think Catton projects as that type of player. There's a real electric quality to playing like that.

And I think generally there's a little more skill with Catton. His ability to manipulate the puck, change direction, process the game so quickly, and execute highly difficult passes is something that I think Celebrini can do well, but Catton can do extremely well. If you want to go further to a player like Levshunov, I think he's very good, but probably not a high-end enough player that I'd pass up a center that I think can be one of the most electric players in the NHL. He could end up a 1D, but I wouldn't say he's necessarily up there at this point with the best draft-eligible defensemen of the last 10 years.

tl;dr, So to nit it all together, I think Catton has the right boxes checked that you want out of that first overall pick. He's a center, he's a very good (borderline elite) skater, he's good defensively, and he has the potential offensively to be one of the league's most electric offensive players.

I appreciate the detailed explanation for your opinion.

I don't know much about this player, might watch some highlights from the current tournament before following him more this upcoming season.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think it would be more likely than not

Eiserman set the record at U17 Worlds, Destroyed the NTDPs u17 single season goal record and came within 3 of the U18 one as an August 06 birthday. He also lead the u18s this year in goal scoring as a third line winger. He will probably smoke the overall NTDP goal record as well.

But before Eiserman was doing this Cole Caufield was setting those records (yes, not as good, but same type of arguments made), and similarly I think he'll score a lot, but I'm not exactly expecting him to be challenging for the Rocket yearly. Setting NTDP records in an area doesn't automatically translate to being one of the few best in that area.

It's a fair argument that his records suggest a player who COULD be that level of goal-scorer in the NHL, but I think when you consider the overall picture, I don't know that I think his goal-scoring attributes project are truly in that tier of being top 2-3. Most of his damage is done by his shot, and I think it's good, but probably not going to be top 2-3 in the world. We had this discussion recently comparing Michkov and Eiserman, and I stated that I think Michkov has that level of truly elite level goal-scoring attributes that Eiserman lacks (and Bedard has that level of truly elite goals-scoring attributes too). There has to be some cutoff. There can't be a yearly Rocket contender (or two) every draft.

I think Eiserman doesn't have that level, but that's only my opinion at this point. Could certainly be proven wrong.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Off topic but how would you rank Catton,Celebrini,Misa and Gavin McKenna?

Who are their NHL comparisons?

Don't have as good of an answer on McKenna yet, so I'll stick to the other three.

I think I like Misa the most out of the three, although I don't think Catton's ceiling is too different. Even Celebrini could end up the best. It's reasonably close between the three. Would have Celebrini a little lower than the other two for now though.

Comparisons. These are rarely exact.

Catton-Stuetzle (Catton an inch shorter)
Misa-Marner (Center version of Marner)
Celebrini-Hischier (Celebrini with a better shot)

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Really fun to watch, reminds me Tim Stuzle in his draft season.

I completely agree. I was thinking about this comparison too.

One of the reasons why I think Catton is being underrated by some, and he'll eventually become better than some of these other players is his ability to make highly skilled plays at such a fast pace.

That's not to say these other players can't play fast or make highly skilled plays, but Catton does it relentlessly and is able to make some absolutely incredible plays at that speed that not many players can make. That's similar to Stuetzle. It brings a real electric quality to his game.

 

[JotAlan]

Did anyone watch him today against Czechia?

On his day, he's unstoppable. He can absolutely take over a game.

My absolute favorite player in the 2024 draft as of now. He has the raw talent to be a superstar in the NHL.

All due respect to the others in the 2024 draft, if he plays to his potential all season, I don't think there's any debate who 1OA is. Hope he has a better supporting cast in Spokane this season than last season.

What would your top 15 forwards with the most potential look like between the 2023 and 2024 drafts?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What would your top 15 forwards with the most potential look like between the 2023 and 2024 drafts?

Interesting question. In no order and done very quickly.

2023: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Perreault, Benson, But, Wood, Shaugabay (hot-take, I know), Sale

2024: Catton, Celebrini, Eiserman, Demidov

Maybe it'd have a few more 2024 draft-eligible if we knew more about the 2024 draft class. I think the 2023 draft class looks better at forward and 2024 draft class looks better at defense.

 

[JotAlan]

Interesting question. In no order and done very quickly.

2023: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Perreault, Benson, But, Wood, Shaugabay (hot-take, I know), Sale

2024: Catton, Celebrini, Eiserman, Demidov

Maybe it'd have a few more 2024 draft-eligible if we knew more about the 2024 draft class. I think the 2023 draft class looks better at forward and 2024 draft class looks better at defense.

I liked. But I was curious. Try sorting in order lol

 

[JotAlan]

If he keeps advancing at this pace is it possible to get 100 points this season even with the team being one of the worst in the league?

 

[wetcoast]

If he keeps advancing at this pace is it possible to get 100 points this season even with the team being one of the worst in the league?

100 points is really tough as only 2 guys did it last season.

 

[FourQuarters]

If he keeps advancing at this pace is it possible to get 100 points this season even with the team being one of the worst in the league?

I think his situation is similar to that of Cristall last season, when his team's attack is totally dependent on him, the risk of injury increases and opposing D-men focus on him. And the Chiefs' roster is even worse than the Rockets'.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Led the tournament in goals and tied for most points as the captain of the winning team. Best player at the Hlinka Gretzky.

 

[tnfrs]

Don't have as good of an answer on McKenna yet, so I'll stick to the other three.

I think I like Misa the most out of the three, although I don't think Catton's ceiling is too different. Even Celebrini could end up the best. It's reasonably close between the three. Would have Celebrini a little lower than the other two for now though.

Comparisons. These are rarely exact.

Catton-Stuetzle (Catton an inch shorter)
Misa-Marner (Center version of Marner)
Celebrini-Hischier (Celebrini with a better shot)

I think youre absolutely spot on about Misa. I havent watched enough Celebrini to give a strong enough assessment but everything you've said about Catton in this thread i agree with not that it matters but Catton gets underrated a lot and I think Celebrini might get over rated based on his speed. Catton will be captain canada for the next few years and if they both play at WJC itll be a good chance to see them head to head. I think Catton might be a slightly watered down Johnathan Toews personally but Stutzle is a great comp too

 

[JotAlan]

What are your expectations for Catton this season? Around 80-90 points on whl? Leader in wjc u18?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What are your expectations for Catton this season? Around 80-90 points on whl? Leader in wjc u18?

Top 10 WHL scorer and one of the best players at the U18’s, if Spokane doesn’t make the playoffs. Don’t think it’s impossible either he could make Canada’s WJC20 team.

 

[JotAlan]

I think his situation is similar to that of Cristall last season, when his team's attack is totally dependent on him, the risk of injury increases and opposing D-men focus on him. And the Chiefs' roster is even worse than the Rockets'.

I agree. But Cristal was on pace for 120 and I think Catton is more talented. So if he doesn't get injured I think he can eclipse 100 points this season.

 

[wetcoast]

I agree. But Cristal was on pace for 120 and I think Catton is more talented. So if he doesn't get injured I think he can eclipse 100 points this season.

I agree that Catton is more talented but it takes more than just talent to be top 10 scoring in the Dub but it all depends on how Connor Roulette and Lucas Kral do in support.

 

[JotAlan]

2+2 in the first pre-season game. I have the impression that the team will be much better than last season and Catton will fly