C Auston Matthews - ZSC Lions, NLA (2016 Draft) IV

[93LEAFS]

Kane was playing in the OHL playoffs that year. London was eliminated a day before the WC started.

Pretty sure USA used to take a stronger team at this point, whereas now they've practically gone all in on an u-23 team with an occasional vet. My guess is the first poster was referencing Kane's WJC. I find Kane, Yakupov and Ekblad are the 3 1st overall prospects that we get by-far the most revisionist history on how they were perceived entering their draft. Kane had serious question marks which mostly proved to be unfounded (how much did he benefit from Gagner, is he too small, is it the Hunter factor like Schremp, and so on) that many considered the 2007 draft to be very weak. Kane success in many ways made it easier to hold a guy like Marner in higher regard, similarly Barkov's success has helped perception of the two Finns. Yakupov supposedly everyone saw the hockey IQ question marks, and the amount of people who had Reinhart or Bennett over Ekblad here was much higher than people would have you believe now.

 

[ijuka]

That argument works for Laine but not for Eichel, Eichel's old too.

Eichel's hype most likely got out of control and out of touch with reality. They didn't want to admit that Connor McDavid was so clearly the best.

 

[ijuka]

I do think that Matthews is probably looking a bit better than Eichel did but seriously, you can't just ignore the NHL rookie season. All players who are playing at a certain level aren't going to end up being the same level in NHL, there are variations. Matthews might end up doing better or worse than projected. Overall, Eichel's rookie season was very good and this should give the edge to Eichels as that's an undeniable fact at this point and it IMO did raise Eichel's stock. And the logic "Matthews had better numbers so he's going to have a 70 point rookie season" is pretty faulty, I hope you can see this. Maybe he has the potential to do that, maybe it's even likely that he'll do slightly better than Eichel, but it's still "what if" and "probably" while Eichel does actually have his rookie season performance.

 

[Liminality]

Thought this was a good idea of just how bad this US team is this year. Good evaluation by JTD.

The US didn't get a single player who finished in the top 25 in points among American players. They got 2 who finished in the top 40 among Americans. Their top scorer who made this team finished 121st in points in the NHL. That was Dylan Larkin. He was the only player they got that finished in top 150 in points. This is the US' D team.

For comparison, Canada got 25% of their top 36 players in points.

If anything, this US team should be worse than they are. Established players just don't want to come and USAH got tired over the years of begging players to come who didn't want to come. They extend invites to all of their top players and always get declined but they don't pressure them to stop declining and instead give young players and veterans who never would make the Olympic team or WCOH team a chance to wear the USA crest cause those players actually want to come. USAH would like to win gold at this event but the players just don't care. That's just the way it is.

Compare that to a team like Finland that has 5 out of their 6 top Finnish point producers in the NHL this year. (2 of those players in NHL's top 50 points for this year)

 

[Auston Marlander]

I do think that Matthews is probably looking a bit better than Eichel did but seriously, you can't just ignore the NHL rookie season. All players who are playing at a certain level aren't going to end up being the same level in NHL, there are variations. Matthews might end up doing better or worse than projected. Overall, Eichel's rookie season was very good and this should give the edge to Eichels as that's an undeniable fact at this point and it IMO did raise Eichel's stock. And the logic "Matthews had better numbers so he's going to have a 70 point rookie season" is pretty faulty, I hope you can see this. Maybe he has the potential to do that, maybe it's even likely that he'll do slightly better than Eichel, but it's still "what if" and "probably" while Eichel does actually have his rookie season performance.

I don't think any sane person would try to compare the 2 today. Eichel has played a rookie season, something Matthews has yet to do, since you know, he hasn't been drafted. it will probably be a couple years before they can be held at par, since rookie year vs year 2 is still a bit of a miss match.

That said, we also cannot hold that against Matthews, all we can do is compare their pre-draft stats until this point next year.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Its difficult to compare Eichel and Matthews because realistically, they play a different style of game. Eichel is seen as more dynamic, Matthews as more complete. That doesn't make either or a better prospect, just simply the style they play.

There is no reason to believe Matthews can't be as good of if not better than Eichel. Does that mean he will end up better? No. If you compare their trajectories, Matthews is slightly ahead (aside from the draft year which is almost impossible to compare given the two vastly different situations considering the leagues). Lets just assume they're tight there too.

Matthews might not have as good of a rookie year as Eichel did. Can be a number of reasons for that (usage, doesn't take a big enough step in development, etc). But, saying right now that he isn't as good of a prospect as Eichel was at this time last year seems a little harsh, given their trajectories-comparison wise.

All we know is that both Matthews and Eichel are fantastic prospects with #1C potential. Laine has fantastic potential to be a first-line forward as well. I lean to Matthews when comparing he and Laine, but I don't fault anyone who has fallen in love with Laine, his skill set is undeniable.

 

[ViewsFromThe6ix]

It's not hard at all when you compare their respective careers relative to their age rather than the actual year. I mean, Eichel is a year older the Matthews so why would it matter that their both only intersected for one season? Here, let me break down the comparisons for you:

Jack Eichel

(Draft - 2, 2012-2013)

USHL 35GP 13G 14A 27P (0.77 PPG) [-0.23 PPG]
USDP (U17) 36GP 19G 15A 34P (0.94 PPG) [-0.44 PPG]
USDP (U18) 22GP 10G 8A 18P (0.82 PPG) [-0.03 PPG]
WHC-17 5GP 3G 0A 3P (0.60 PPG) [-0.73 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 1G 1A 2P (0.29 PPG) [-0.71 PPG]

(Draft - 1, 2013-2014)

USHL 24GP 20G 25A 45P (1.88 PPG) [-0.12 PPG]
USDP (U18) 53GP 38G 49A 87P (1.64 PPG) [-0.29 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 5G 5A 10P (1.43 PPG) [-0.72 PPG]
WJC-20 5GP 1G 4A 5P (1.00 PPG) [+0.40 PPG]

(Draft Year, 2014-2015)

NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)
WJC-20 5GP 1G 3A 4P (0.80 PPG) [-0.77 PPG]
WC 10GP 2G 5A 7P (0.70 PPG) [-0.30 PPG]

vs



Auston Matthews

(Draft - 2, 2013-2014)

USHL 20GP 10G 10A 20P (1.00 PPG) [+0.23 PPG]
USDP (U17) 24GP 12G 21A 33P (1.38 PPG) [+0.44 PPG]
USDP (U18) 20GP 12G 7A 17P (0.85 PPG) [+0.03 PPG]
WHC-17 6GP 4G 4A 8P (1.33 PPG) [+0.73 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 5G 2A 7P (1.00 PPG) [+0.71 PPG]

(Draft - 1, 2014-2015)

USHL 24GP 20G 28A 48P (2.00 PPG) [+0.12 PPG]
USDP (U18) 60GP 55G 61A 116P (1.93 PPG) [+0.29 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 7G 8A 15P (2.15 PPG) [+0.72 PPG]
WJC-20 5GP 1G 2A 3P (0.60 PPG) [-0.40 PPG]

(Draft Year, 2015-2016)

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)
WJC-20 7GP 7A 4A 11P (1.57 PPG) [+0.77 PPG]
*WC 6GP 3G 3A 6P (1.00 PPG) [+0.30 PPG]

*WC is still going on

So as you can see, Eichel and Matthews have had 11 directly comparable stats and Matthews has outproduced Eichel in 10 out of those 11. The only stat that is not comparable is Eichel's NCAA season last year and Matthews' NLA season this year:

NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)

vs

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)

Other than those two, why exactly is it so hard to compare Eichel and Matthews' stats?

good post. But apparently Eichel still>Matthews as a prospect. They are the exact same caliber player. Both look like franchise changing centermen.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

It's not hard at all when you compare their respective careers relative to their age rather than the actual year. I mean, Eichel is a year older the Matthews so why would it matter that their both only intersected for one season? Here, let me break down the comparisons for you:

Jack Eichel

(Draft - 2, 2012-2013)

USHL 35GP 13G 14A 27P (0.77 PPG) [-0.23 PPG]
USDP (U17) 36GP 19G 15A 34P (0.94 PPG) [-0.44 PPG]
USDP (U18) 22GP 10G 8A 18P (0.82 PPG) [-0.03 PPG]
WHC-17 5GP 3G 0A 3P (0.60 PPG) [-0.73 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 1G 1A 2P (0.29 PPG) [-0.71 PPG]

(Draft - 1, 2013-2014)

USHL 24GP 20G 25A 45P (1.88 PPG) [-0.12 PPG]
USDP (U18) 53GP 38G 49A 87P (1.64 PPG) [-0.29 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 5G 5A 10P (1.43 PPG) [-0.72 PPG]
WJC-20 5GP 1G 4A 5P (1.00 PPG) [+0.40 PPG]

(Draft Year, 2014-2015)

NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)
WJC-20 5GP 1G 3A 4P (0.80 PPG) [-0.77 PPG]
WC 10GP 2G 5A 7P (0.70 PPG) [-0.30 PPG]

vs



Auston Matthews

(Draft - 2, 2013-2014)

USHL 20GP 10G 10A 20P (1.00 PPG) [+0.23 PPG]
USDP (U17) 24GP 12G 21A 33P (1.38 PPG) [+0.44 PPG]
USDP (U18) 20GP 12G 7A 17P (0.85 PPG) [+0.03 PPG]
WHC-17 6GP 4G 4A 8P (1.33 PPG) [+0.73 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 5G 2A 7P (1.00 PPG) [+0.71 PPG]

(Draft - 1, 2014-2015)

USHL 24GP 20G 28A 48P (2.00 PPG) [+0.12 PPG]
USDP (U18) 60GP 55G 61A 116P (1.93 PPG) [+0.29 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 7G 8A 15P (2.15 PPG) [+0.72 PPG]
WJC-20 5GP 1G 2A 3P (0.60 PPG) [-0.40 PPG]

(Draft Year, 2015-2016)

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)
WJC-20 7GP 7A 4A 11P (1.57 PPG) [+0.77 PPG]
*WC 6GP 3G 3A 6P (1.00 PPG) [+0.30 PPG]

*WC is still going on

So as you can see, Eichel and Matthews have had 11 directly comparable stats and Matthews has outproduced Eichel in 10 out of those 11. The only stat that is not comparable is Eichel's NCAA season last year and Matthews' NLA season this year:

NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)

vs

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)

Other than those two, why exactly is it so hard to compare Eichel and Matthews' stats?

My comparison is more accurate. It lists teams and competition both Matthews and Eichel had faced in the only year they actually intersected. Your premise is based on a what if scenario. One that is less accurate not unless you want to claim a player like Bracco is better than Eichel because he had better numbers than him also.

Here are the teams Eichel and Matthews both played on. Matthews never outproduced Eichel when they faced similar competition. The charts speak for themselves. I would wager Eichel will outproduce Matthews the majority of their seasons when they both play in the NHL. This will be the only way to settle this. Since I don't think the Bracco scenario is an accurate one similar to comparing Matthews numbers to Eichel's stats and prorate this to the NHL either. It's not very accurate. You simply cannot make projections based on different seasons or competition. Head to head competition trumps this.

 

[Maplebeasts]

My comparison is more accurate. It lists teams and competition both Matthews and Eichel had faced in the only year they actually intersected. Your premise is based on a what if scenario. One that is less accurate not unless you want to claim a player like Bracco is better than Eichel because he had better numbers than him also.

Here are the teams Eichel and Matthews both played on. Matthews never outproduced Eichel when they faced similar competition. The charts speak for themselves. I would wager Eichel will outproduce Matthews the majority of their seasons when they both play in the NHL. This will be the only way to settle this. Since I don't think the Bracco scenario is an accurate one similar to comparing Matthews numbers to Eichel's stats and prorate this to the NHL either. It's not very accurate. You simply cannot make projections based on different seasons or competition. Head to head competition trumps this.

You still have not addressed his point on Eichel being a year older, and thus he should be putting up better numbers. When we look at Matthews and Eichel's seasons at the same point in their development, they are very close in production, with Matthews having a small edge in most cases. The guy you quoted also stated that comparing the NLA and NCAA is too difficult, so he didn't give one of Eichel or Matthews an edge. Also your statement has been proven false about Matthews never outproducing Eichel while facing similar competition, at similar ages in the same international tournaments and league play (USNDP) other than their draft seasons and NLA ( due to difficulty in comparing leagues and situations), Matthews has usually outdone Eichel as far as pure production goes.

 

[MiniMoose]

My comparison is more accurate. It lists teams and competition both Matthews and Eichel had faced in the only year they actually intersected. Your premise is based on a what if scenario. One that is less accurate not unless you want to claim a player like Bracco is better than Eichel because he had better numbers than him also.

Here are the teams Eichel and Matthews both played on. Matthews never outproduced Eichel when they faced similar competition. The charts speak for themselves. I would wager Eichel will outproduce Matthews the majority of their seasons when they both play in the NHL. This will be the only way to settle this. Since I don't think the Bracco scenario is an accurate one similar to comparing Matthews numbers to Eichel's stats and prorate this to the NHL either. It's not very accurate. You simply cannot make projections based on different seasons or competition. Head to head competition trumps this.

Erm Matthews was a year younger and Eichel would obviously get more ice time than Matthews so their usage wasn't the same. You cant really compare them in this setting

 

[dubey]

Deceptive of The Winter Soldier/Interactif of only comparing their stats when they played together, when Eichel is a full year ahead in that particular season he illustrated.

Makes more sense to compare them at similar points in their career in the same leagues and tournaments:

Age 17:
Eichel: 87 points in 53 games in the USDP program (1.64 PPG)
15 points in 12 U18 + U20 games

Matthews: 116 points in 60 games in the USDP program (1.93 PPG)
18 points in 12 U18 + U20 games

Age 18:
Eichel: 11 points in 15 U20 + WC games
Matthews: 17 points in 13 U20 + WC games

But he did feel they were comparable not so long ago

Matthews will be a much better player than Eichel IMO

 

[Leafs at Knight]

It's not hard at all when you compare their respective careers relative to their age rather than the actual year. I mean, Eichel is a year older the Matthews so why would it matter that their both only intersected for one season? Here, let me break down the comparisons for you:


NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)

vs

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)

Other than those two, why exactly is it so hard to compare Eichel and Matthews' stats?

Good post, thanks. I still believe they are very close to each other, and will be throughout their careers.

 

[Semantics]

Here are the teams Eichel and Matthews both played on. Matthews never outproduced Eichel when they faced similar competition. The charts speak for themselves.

Who do you think you're fooling here?

 

[Not Sure]

Erm Matthews was a year younger and Eichel would obviously get more ice time than Matthews so their usage wasn't the same. You cant really compare them in this setting

He got more ice time and he faced harder competition. If Eichel decided to fly over and play in this tournament he would be placed ahead of Matthews. This whole argument is rediculous, until Matthews produces in the NHL Eichel right now is the better player, in fact so are guys like Larkin who have also produced in the NHL. This can be revisited after Matthews is drafted and starts playing, but comparisons between players who played different leagues, or on different lines, at different times is pure speculation and opinion. You will never know what Eichel would have done in Matthews position or Matthews in Eichel's. If you want to compare players you're better off comparing aspects of their game. Who has better shot, skating, vision etc. It would still be opinion but at least people couldn't try hiding behind numbers when they don't understand what they're looking at.

 

[Leaf19]

My comparison is more accurate. It lists teams and competition both Matthews and Eichel had faced in the only year they actually intersected. Your premise is based on a what if scenario. One that is less accurate not unless you want to claim a player like Bracco is better than Eichel because he had better numbers than him also.

Here are the teams Eichel and Matthews both played on. Matthews never outproduced Eichel when they faced similar competition. The charts speak for themselves. I would wager Eichel will outproduce Matthews the majority of their seasons when they both play in the NHL. This will be the only way to settle this. Since I don't think the Bracco scenario is an accurate one similar to comparing Matthews numbers to Eichel's stats and prorate this to the NHL either. It's not very accurate. You simply cannot make projections based on different seasons or competition. Head to head competition trumps this.

How is your comparison more accurate? You have to compare Apples to Apples and Oranges to Oranges. Obviously if you look at Eichel and Matthews in the SAME year Eichel will have vastly outproduced Matthews since he would have an entire year of development on him. Don't forget that Eichel is also a late birthday just like Matthews so I don't get why you're comparing Eichel at 18 vs Matthews at 17, Eichel at 17 vs Matthews at 16. Compare Eichel at 18 vs Matthews at 18, Eichel at 17 vs Matthews at 17. Out of the 12 different samples of stats that we have on these two, 11 of them are directly comparable (meaning they're in the exact same league/tourney). The NLA/NCAA is the only stat that is not comparable without difficult judgement involved.

You said Matthews has never outproduced Eichel when facing similar competition. I just showed you that Matthews actually outproduced Eichel in 10 out of 11 situations in which they faced similar competition (aka competition in their own age group).

What you are doing is bending the stats to fit your agenda (not that I'm surprised). Interactif>The Mentalist>The Winter Soldier> what's next? seems like when people finally figure you out you move onto the next alias

I'm not saying Matthews is better as a prospect than Eichel was, or vice versa. I don't even want to get into that debate because I'm just happy with who we've got. However, you saying that Eichel and Matthews' stats can't be compared is just not accurate. It took me about 20 minutes to compare them.

 

[KGL]

When comparing Matthews and Eichel in a logical fashion, Matthews has consistently outproduced Eichel. Not debatable.

 

[TimeZone]

It's not hard at all when you compare their respective careers relative to their age rather than the actual year. I mean, Eichel is a year older the Matthews so why would it matter that their both only intersected for one season? Here, let me break down the comparisons for you:

Jack Eichel

(Draft - 2, 2012-2013)

USHL 35GP 13G 14A 27P (0.77 PPG) [-0.23 PPG]
USDP (U17) 36GP 19G 15A 34P (0.94 PPG) [-0.44 PPG]
USDP (U18) 22GP 10G 8A 18P (0.82 PPG) [-0.03 PPG]
WHC-17 5GP 3G 0A 3P (0.60 PPG) [-0.73 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 1G 1A 2P (0.29 PPG) [-0.71 PPG]

(Draft - 1, 2013-2014)

USHL 24GP 20G 25A 45P (1.88 PPG) [-0.12 PPG]
USDP (U18) 53GP 38G 49A 87P (1.64 PPG) [-0.29 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 5G 5A 10P (1.43 PPG) [-0.72 PPG]
WJC-20 5GP 1G 4A 5P (1.00 PPG) [+0.40 PPG]

(Draft Year, 2014-2015)

NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)
WJC-20 5GP 1G 3A 4P (0.80 PPG) [-0.77 PPG]
WC 10GP 2G 5A 7P (0.70 PPG) [-0.30 PPG]

vs



Auston Matthews

(Draft - 2, 2013-2014)

USHL 20GP 10G 10A 20P (1.00 PPG) [+0.23 PPG]
USDP (U17) 24GP 12G 21A 33P (1.38 PPG) [+0.44 PPG]
USDP (U18) 20GP 12G 7A 17P (0.85 PPG) [+0.03 PPG]
WHC-17 6GP 4G 4A 8P (1.33 PPG) [+0.73 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 5G 2A 7P (1.00 PPG) [+0.71 PPG]

(Draft - 1, 2014-2015)

USHL 24GP 20G 28A 48P (2.00 PPG) [+0.12 PPG]
USDP (U18) 60GP 55G 61A 116P (1.93 PPG) [+0.29 PPG]
WJC-18 7GP 7G 8A 15P (2.15 PPG) [+0.72 PPG]
WJC-20 5GP 1G 2A 3P (0.60 PPG) [-0.40 PPG]

(Draft Year, 2015-2016)

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)
WJC-20 7GP 7A 4A 11P (1.57 PPG) [+0.77 PPG]
*WC 6GP 3G 3A 6P (1.00 PPG) [+0.30 PPG]

*WC is still going on

So as you can see, Eichel and Matthews have had 11 directly comparable stats and Matthews has outproduced Eichel in 10 out of those 11. The only stat that is not comparable is Eichel's NCAA season last year and Matthews' NLA season this year:

NCAA 40GP 26G 45A 71P (1.78 PPG)

vs

NLA 36GP 24G 22A 46P (1.28 PPG)

Other than those two, why exactly is it so hard to compare Eichel and Matthews' stats?

Excellent post. I really didn't feel like digging all of that up myself.

 

[snizzbone*]

Winter Solider probably doesn't realize that Eichel is also a late bday just like Matthews. Eichel missed the 2014 draft by a month or so. He's about 11 months older than Matthews.

 

[TimeZone]

Winter Solider probably doesn't realize that Eichel is also a late bday just like Matthews. Eichel missed the 2014 draft by a month or so. He's about 11 months older than Matthews.

Perhaps this is the case. Some people just can't admit when they're wrong however.

 

[Sabre Dance]

Who cares who is better, Eichel and Mathews are both great #1 center prospects. Should be a fun rivalry. I only wish Mathews were Canadian. Don't want to root against a great American hockey player.

 

[Not Sure]

Who cares who is better, Eichel and Mathews are both great #1 center prospects. Should be a fun rivalry. I only wish Mathews were Canadian. Don't want to root against a great American hockey player.

Don't worry, he'll end up signing an offer sheet to go home to play in Arizona ASAP. Am I doin it rite?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Winter Solider probably doesn't realize that Eichel is also a late bday just like Matthews. Eichel missed the 2014 draft by a month or so. He's about 11 months older than Matthews.

I would be remiss to not mention, for accuracy sake. You forgot to mention Matthews is even a later Birthday. Missed the 2015 draft by hours. And also it's actually closer to 10 and a half months than 11 months that Eichel is older than Matthews. Which is ironic to the situation we have in this year's draft if we are to be consistent in our evaluation.

 

[Leaf19]

Great post. Really puts things into perspective. Pretty clear who is superior offensively.

Yeah, but Matthews is like super old for his draft year, which is like 40 dog years, which is like 5 hockey years. Come on man.

excellent post. Thanks for taking the time to compile this together. As for Winter Soldier, he's out to lunch.

good post. But apparently Eichel still>Matthews as a prospect. They are the exact same caliber player. Both look like franchise changing centermen.

Good post, thanks. I still believe they are very close to each other, and will be throughout their careers.

Excellent post. I really didn't feel like digging all of that up myself.

Thanks guys, no problem. It's good to put things into context as I always see things like 'Matthews has outproduced Eichel at the same age' thrown around but I've never seen stats to back it up. When I checked them out for myself, I was surprised that Matthews not only held his own but outproduced Eichel quite a bit in some cases. However, their NLA and NCAA seasons can't really be compared directly. One is a mens league and the other still has some young men and is a very good league. Both produced at a high level in each respective league but only a scout or someone who has watched both extensively could give you an accurate comparison of these two seasons.

 

[KGL]

Winter Soldier, I'm curious what changed so much between Matthews and Eichel in the span of three months, considering you had Matthews equal (or higher) than Eichel just a few months ago:

1. Mcdavid (there would be no disagreement)
2. Matthews (or Eichel)
3. Eichel (or Matthews)
4. Pujujarvi
5. Laine

Matthews - Eichel - even

Eichel = Matthews

 

[dubey]

Winter Soldier, I'm curious what changed so much between Matthews and Eichel in the span of three months, considering you had Matthews equal (or higher) than Eichel just a few months ago:

~it is a mystery~