C Aatu Räty - Jukurit, Liiga (2021, 52nd, NYI)
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Thank you hockeyprofessor for enlightening us peasants with your knowledge, good to see you come back from the ”can he do it on NA size rink” argument!
FinPanda
Barkov Stanley cup champ!
He is arguably the best player on his team, but the coach clearly just doesnt trust him with better linemates or even PP time, unbelievable.
4th in points/gp on even strength, mostly on the 4th line. The three guys ahead of him are the 1st line who gets the most of the PP time.
MasterMatt25
Registered User
Conspiracy Theorist
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- Jan 30, 2016
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Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
Killerjas
Registered User
Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
No no, i want to hear his opinion. And i also want to hear why, not just names. Because obviously there's some deep knowledge at work here. So i need to know why X player is better than Aatu Räty and what are the things this person sees in Aatu Räty's games that make him worse.
Because if you can make a statement like that, then I'm sure he's seen some games from all these potential top picks.
Looking simply at production, it's pretty tough at this point to pick anyone over Aatu Räty in my opinion. Especially when we consider his attributes even outside of pure scoring.
Myklukha? No, those leagues aren't nearly strong enough. He's not even the best 16-year-old on his team, the league's being dominated by some German player.
Myklukha? No, those leagues aren't nearly strong enough. He's not even the best 16-year-old on his team, the league's being dominated by some German player.
MasterMatt25
Registered User
This draft is way too far away, need to wait for the North Americans to hit juniors first.
I wouldn't say that it absolutely won't be Raty, but at this point I don't think we can say there's a clear frontrunner, especially when you consider that the 2003-born Canadians won't enter the CHL until next year(though a few have played some games in the WHL, they can't enter full-time until 2019-20). Also, as far as I know, the best 2003-born Americans haven't even been selected yet for the USNTDP. Finland is unusual in that the best 14,15 and 16-year-olds play in a nationwide league. I don't think any of the other major hockey powers do this(probably for reasons of geography). As such, it's very difficult to say that PLAYER X is the best Canadian/American/Swedish/Russian in their age-group until their draft-1 season.
As for why Raty might not be first overall: He was good(3G, 0A in 6 games played plus possibly 1 assist that he should have been awarded, but wasn't), but hardly dominant at the World Under-17's in November. If you look at all the first-overall picks going back to the 2004-05 lockout, they've almost all been dominant at this tournament when they've played:
Crosby: played in WJC's instead(the World Under-17 tournament used to be held at the same time)
Johnson: 2 points in 5 GP
Kane: 8 points in 5 GP
Stamkos: did not play(must have been injured)
Tavares: 13 points in 5GP as an underager(did not play in 2006-07)
Hall: 8 points in 5GP
Nugent-Hopkins: 5 points in 5GP
Yakupov: Did not play
MacKinnon: 4 points in 5GP(though he scored 8 points in 5GP the previous year as an underager) Also keep in mind that under the old regional system, the Atlantic teams tended to be very weak.
Ekblad: 6 points in 5GP
McDavid: 9 points in 5GP as an underager, played in WJC's in 2013 instead
Matthews: 8 points in 6GP
Hischier: Did not play(I don't think that Switzerland usually sends a team)
Dahlin: Did not play(I believe he played in a European U18 or U20 tournament instead)
I'll grant you that it's probably a bit harder to put up gaudy numbers now than it was before because Canada used to ice 5 regionally-based teams instead of 3 with the most talented players evenly spread throughout. Really good players can no longer run up the score against hopelessly outmatched Canadian regions that were having an off year.
In terms of numbers, Raty's Nuorten SM-Liiga career has thus far not been eye-popping. Scoring 15 points in 22 games places him at a pace well below that of the majority of Finnish first-round forwards at the same age and in the same league according to Eliteprospects. That being said, I'm not sure how reliable Eliteprospects is for older seasons. For example, it claims Kotkaniemi played 23 regular season Nuorten SM-Liiga games in 2016-17, when in fact he only played 17 according to Finhockey. Unfortunately the Finhockey website's archives only go back to the 2013-14 season so older numbers are hard to verify. Also hindering a direct comparison is the fact that unlike most of Finland's recently high-drafted forwards, Raty is a late birthday. The only other one is Mikko Rantanen, who scored at an almost identical pace at the same age and in the same league (at least according to Eliteprospects).
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Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
I dont give a crap about the numbers, why offer opinions on players you have probably not watched? You can not do online scouting through eliteprospects ffs.
I was hoping for some actual insights about his game because i have not seen him play and a lot of people here speak as if they have.
I was hoping for some actual insights about his game because i have not seen him play and a lot of people here speak as if they have.
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I admit I have no idea who’s going first. I just don’t think it’ll be Räty because as has been said, he’s hasn’t even been dominant in his own age group internationally. But I suppose if it’s a weak draft year it’s possible.
Kaako Kappo
Kaako Kappo
I agree. But as for now, I don’t see him as a 1st OA kind of player. Hope he proves me wrong though.
FinPanda
Barkov Stanley cup champ!
You could always watch his World Under 17 games, at least four of which remain archived on Hockey Canada's website. I watched all of his games during the tournament, some of them more than once specifically because I'd heard so much about Raty.
He certainly didn't disappoint. In terms of other Finnish players, he reminds me a lot of Antti Saarela and Anton Lundell at last year's tournament in that he rarely makes super-flashy plays. Mostly he's just really smart, with and without the puck, usually making the simple play. He seems like the kind of player who could very well be more comfortable when he gets away from run and gun junior tournaments and into a professional environment with established systems and the ability to build long-term chemistry with linemates.
When he has the puck he's very patient, with a high panic threshold. He rarely makes bad passes, both in the sense that his passes are crisp, and he doesn't give the puck to teammates when it doesn't make sense to pass to that particular player. He's pretty good at receiving bad passes at odd angles. In terms of skating, his technique and agility appear very good(at least to my untrained eye). He's not a speedster who darts around the ice at full throttle all the time, though this may be because his good anticipation means he doesn't generally need to. His defensive play appeared a little lackadaisical at times, but he gets back, keeps his head on a swivel, and doesn't over-commit, which a lot of young players do, leaving trailing players open.
He appeared to have some issues getting his shot through traffic. Often he would try to get a shot off with an opposing player between him and the goalie, which can be a very effective way of catching opposing goalies off-guard, but he doesn't seem to have the timing down yet. It may be that he doesn't have the two-step acceleration to create better separation, but I'm not sure. His play without the puck in the offensive zone is very advanced.
He's very very smart when it comes to buying extra time and space for his teammates when they have the puck, often when he's just passed it. He'll put himself between the player that he wants to pass to(often a defenseman on point), and then pass the puck, forcing the opposing player to skate around him if they want to challenge the puck carrier. At least twice I saw him slash the blade of an opposing player's stick when they were threatening to poke check the Finnish puck carrier, but he did it so lightly that there was never any danger of the stick falling out of their hands. However, the slashes were timed precisely to knock their stick out of position just long enough to give the Finnish puck carrier a clear path through, unless the opposing defenseman wanted to commit to a body check. In short, he's excellent at doing the kinds of things that rarely merit a penalty call, but give teammates extra fractions of a second.
So in summary there's a ton to like about Aatu Raty, at least based on his U17 performance. Enough to easily make him a first-rounder at this point, maybe even in the top 15. That being said, while he does a whole bunch of little things right, I wouldn't say there's one way in which he completely outshines his peers. Most first-overall picks have multiple areas in which they dominate, at least at this level. He's smart, but is he smart enough to pull off a play that makes you wonder if he has eyes in the back of his head? I didn't see any evidence of it. He's dangerous to be sure, but when he got on the ice, you never got the feeling that it was hopelessly tilted against the opposing team and that it was just a matter of time until Raty's line scored. Would it have been easier if he had better linemates? Sure. It was pretty clear they weren't anywhere near his skill level. But you know what? He didn't look that much better with Hirvonen, Jarventie and Suni on the powerplay. And I know I sound like a broken record, but at this level future first-overall picks have a way of making their linemates look way better than they actually are.
You're right, you can't do online scouting on Eliteprospects, but in the long run hockey, like almost everything else in life, comes down to numbers. Here are some numbers relating to Finnish players who spent their last year of eligibility for the World Under-17 Tournament playing in the Nuorten SM-Liiga in the last few years(the only ones for which detailed game info is available).
[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Points/60 Minutes Played[/TD]
[TD]Shot Attempts/ 60 Minutes Played[/TD]
[TD]"Home Plate" Shot Attempts/60 minutes played[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Kotkaniemi[/TD]
[TD]3.33[/TD]
[TD]16.18[/TD]
[TD]11.97[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Kupari[/TD]
[TD]2.37[/TD]
[TD]13.05[/TD]
[TD]10.00[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Kakko[/TD]
[TD]3.70[/TD]
[TD]22.41[/TD]
[TD]13.40[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Lundell[/TD]
[TD]3.76[/TD]
[TD]13.47[/TD]
[TD]10.33[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Hirvonen[/TD]
[TD]3.63[/TD]
[TD]13.85[/TD]
[TD]8.35[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Raty[/TD]
[TD]2.86[/TD]
[TD]11.07[/TD]
[TD]6.96[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Jarventie[/TD]
[TD]2.74[/TD]
[TD]11.23[/TD]
[TD]5.48[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Simontaival[/TD]
[TD]4.04[/TD]
[TD]15.80[/TD]
[TD]10.84[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
I'm not making any claims about statistical models here, I've simply summarized the numbers available to give me a sort of glimpse of the above players in games to which I can't see with my own eyes.
So even when you take Raty's generally limited icetime into account, Raty scores at ~70-86% the rate of Kotkaniemi, Kakko, Lundell and Simontaival, the players on this list who are seen as top 10 material in their respective years. While I don't expect him or anyone else to come close to Kakko's prodigious shot totals, it's interesting that he tries to shoot the puck less than anyone else on the list, even those players thought of as passers more than snipers. The real dip comes when you look just at the shot attempts from the home plate area in front of the net. This is where the most dangerous shots tend to come from, and it's where goalscorers not named Ovechkin or Laine generally ply their trade.
Simontaival and Hirvonen's numbers are probably helped by spending much of their time playing with high-quality linemates, and they're ~11 months older than Raty. Does greater maturity plus more opportunity explain the whole gap in scoring rates? I honestly have no idea. But then again, with the exception of a few Kakko fans, no one is asserting that any of the players in the above list are the best in their respective draft years.
FinPanda
Barkov Stanley cup champ!
He is playing as a 2nd line center tonight against Slovakia on the U18 5-nations tournament.
Linemates are 2020 draft prospect Veeti Miettinen and his brother Aku who is a 2019 draft prospect.
Linemates are 2020 draft prospect Veeti Miettinen and his brother Aku who is a 2019 draft prospect.
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FinPanda
Barkov Stanley cup champ!
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