Player Discussion Buffalo Pickers - The Search For Serviceable Defensemen, Summer of '23 Edition

[MarkusKetterer]

There's an ocean between Miller and Bogosian. Evolving Hockey has Miller at a cumulative career GAR of 42.8, Bogosian at -17.2. To put those numbers in perspective, Dahlin is a 16.5 GAR this season alone.

I think we simply expected a bit too much out of Miller and he got Kreugered along with everyone else. He looked really good under Granato for like 30(?) games before the injury and then he looked like crap for the 10(?) games after coming back from injury. And he's looked good everywhere else but Kreuger Buffalo. He also only played 137 games for us.

Bogosian has been garbage his entire career, everywhere he's gone.

I just expected Miller to hit the net, and even then my hopes were too high

 

[Irie]

There's an ocean between Miller and Bogosian. Evolving Hockey has Miller at a cumulative career GAR of 42.8, Bogosian at -17.2. To put those numbers in perspective, Dahlin is a 16.5 GAR this season alone.

I think we simply expected a bit too much out of Miller and he got Kreugered along with everyone else. He looked really good under Granato for like 30(?) games before the injury and then he looked like crap for the 10(?) games after coming back from injury. And he's looked good everywhere else but Kreuger Buffalo. He also only played 137 games for us.

Bogosian has been garbage his entire career, everywhere he's gone.

I don't think it is quite so cut and dry with either though. Bogosian went to Tampa, played 18 minutes a game throughout the playoffs with solid metrics on a cup winning team. I think he was just deployed in a manner that was more geared to his abilities there.

And as you brought up earlier, Ristolainen's metrics now look quite solid with a reduced role and with a set job.

A lot of players will have their potential untapped, (especially on the offensive side) with Granato's freedom and flexibility to adapt and learn what works and what doesn't for them(which leads to higher celings in develipment). Unfortuantely a lot of players need structure(more-so on the defensive end). They don't process the game or read the ice well enough to react and make the plays the circumstances require.

Miller was good in the offensive zone and adequate in the neutral zone, but he was super inconsistent in the D-zone missing assignments and failing to read the plays as they develop and unable to react to cover his responsibilities - and that was even before the injury.

A lot of D that are Junk in a loose system can be serviceable if told where to be and what to do when they don't have to react quite as much and just do what they are told.

 

[BFLO]

I don't think it is quite so cut and dry with either though. Bogosian went to Tampa, played 18 minutes a game throughout the playoffs with solid metrics on a cup winning team. I think he was just deployed in a manner that was more geared to his abilities there.

And as you brought up earlier, Ristolainen's metrics now look quite solid with a reduced role and with a set job.

A lot of players will have their potential untapped, (especially on the offensive side) with Granato's freedom and flexibility to adapt and learn what works and what doesn't for them(which leads to higher celings in develipment). Unfortuantely a lot of players need structure(more-so on the defensive end). They don't process the game or read the ice well enough to react and make the plays the circumstances require.

Miller was good in the offensive zone and adequate in the neutral zone, but he was super inconsistent in the D-zone missing assignments and failing to read the plays as they develop and unable to react to cover his responsibilities - and that was even before the injury.

A lot of D that are Junk in a loose system can be serviceable if told where to be and what to do when they don't have to react quite as much and just do what they are told.

Bogosian's regular season stats are really bad in Tampa. He overperformed for them in 20 games during one playoff run where he averaged 17:39 Toi. Last playoffs he averaged 12:33 toi.

We're getting off track though.

I want the Sabres to go after the quality older veterans. Schenn, Shattenkirk, McDonaugh, Coburn, Ian Cole, Rutta. Tampa has had great success by having a rotating cast of quality older vets from outisde their org to compliment their core guys in Sergachev, Hedman and Cernak.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I doubt Adams would be willing to pay what Calgary wants for Hanifin given that he only has one season of team control.

What do you think the asking price would be? And what do you think Hanifin asks for long term?

Clearly - you would trade for him with the intention of resigning him. I don't think his next contract would be astronomical - I'd like to think that we know what Dahlin / Power will be making long term before we make this type of move as well.

 

[Irie]

Bogosian's regular season stats are really bad in Tampa. He overperformed for them in 20 games during one playoff run where he averaged 17:39 Toi. Last playoffs he averaged 12:33 toi.

We're getting off track though.

I want the Sabres to go after the quality older veterans. Schenn, Shattenkirk, McDonaugh, Coburn, Ian Cole, Rutta. Tampa has had great success by having a rotating cast of quality older vets from outisde their org to compliment their core guys in Sergachev, Hedman and Cernak.

The thing with Tampa is that they take vets that they target as still effective, and give them a smaller, more defined roles with less responsibility often, and it works out well.

For Buffalo, adding aging vets would help with the depth issue, but when everyone is healthy, adding guys like Schenn/Rutta/Cole really would just add to the current logjam in the third pairing. They would be upgrades, but I don't think they are the solution for the top 4 or Power's partner.

McDonaugh is not the same as the others though, he was #1 D when Tampa acquired him, and his presence gave them the luxury of not needing those other vets they brought in to be featured players. They could all just slide in and play secondary support roles.

Picking up a McDonaugh type player (who was 28 when acquired) would be amazing and would make a lot of sense with an extension, but who really is a comp there? A second tier #1 D who is strong defensively at that age? Sanheim might be the closest comparable in my mind. Toews would be great, though a bit different - Not as much O, but solid D. Doubt any of them are available. Pelech? Definitely not available. Any comparable player would be a major add with a huge pricetag.

As for Bogosian, he is about to turn 33. Comparing his skills this season and during last years playoffs to his ability during their 2019 cup run has to take into account that he is in heavy decline now due to his age. He started to really hit a wall during his season in Toronto.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

The thing with Tampa is that they take vets that they target as still effective, and give them a smaller, more defined roles with less responsibility often, and it works out well.

For Buffalo, adding aging vets would help with the depth issue, but when everyone is healthy, adding guys like Schenn/Rutta/Cole really would just add to the current logjam in the third pairing. They would be upgrades, but I don't think they are the solution for the top 4 or Power's partner.

McDonaugh is not the same as the others though, he was #1 D when Tampa acquired him, and his presence gave them the luxury of not needing those other vets they brought in to be featured players. They could all just slide in and play secondary support roles.

Picking up a McDonaugh type player (who was 28 when acquired) would be amazing and would make a lot of sense with an extension, but who really is a comp there? A second tier #1 D who is strong defensively at that age? Sanheim might be the closest comparable in my mind. Toews would be great, though a bit different - Not as much O, but solid D. Doubt any of them are available. Pelech? Definitely not available. Any comparable player would be a major add with a huge pricetag.

As for Bogosian, he is about to turn 33. Comparing his skills this season and during last years playoffs to his ability during their 2019 cup run has to take into account that he is in heavy decline now due to his age. He started to really hit a wall during his season in Toronto.

I agree with this x1000.

I appreciate this thread & the contributions of everyone - but we shouldn't be in a position where we need to 'dumpster dive' for serviceable veterans or unproven players you hope have untapped potential.

Adams has more tradeable assets available to him than ANY team in the league. He also has among the most cap space in the league to work with. In the scheme of things - he also doesn't have many holes to fill - other than this it's pretty much a #1 goalie.

There is absolutely no excuse to go bargain hunting here. Identify the BEST guy for the role & pay whatever it takes in terms of assets / cap space to secure him.

 

[Jim Bob]

What do you think the asking price would be? And what do you think Hanifin asks for long term?

Clearly - you would trade for him with the intention of resigning him. I don't think his next contract would be astronomical - I'd like to think that we know what Dahlin / Power will be making long term before we make this type of move as well.

I think he would want something in the Brodin/Pelech/Krug neighborhood as he will be a young UFA.

And my guess is that Calgary would want a 1st+ for him.

That does not seem like the type of deal that would interest Adams. Adams could change how he approaches things. But, until I see evidence of that, I am not going to expect him to change his direction in that regard.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I think he would want something in the Brodin/Pelech/Krug neighborhood as he will be a young UFA.

And my guess is that Calgary would want a 1st+ for him.

That does not seem like the type of deal that would interest Adams. Adams could change how he approaches things. But, until I see evidence of that, I am not going to expect him to change his direction in that regard.

So circa 6m AAV? That sounds reasonable & I'd be OK with it, personally.

I'd be willing to move the '24 R1 for him, or possibly some other combination such as Jokiharju + '23 R2. Or maybe Calgary might covet a guy like Rosen instead of a high pick if they wanted somebody closer to the NHL?

The evidence is already there - he was in on Chychrun. Hanifin isn't a million miles away in terms of age / ability etc. The main difference is contract status - but that should be reflected in their respective trade value.

 

[Jim Bob]

So circa 6m AAV? That sounds reasonable & I'd be OK with it, personally.

I'd be willing to move the '24 R1 for him, or possibly some other combination such as Jokiharju + '23 R2. Or maybe Calgary might covet a guy like Rosen instead of a high pick if they wanted somebody closer to the NHL?

The evidence is already there - he was in on Chychrun. Hanifin isn't a million miles away in terms of age / ability etc. The main difference is contract status - but that should be reflected in their respective trade value.

Chychrun was under team control for way more than one season. That major difference is why I would be surprised if Adams were in on Hanifin.

I also do not know if Hanifin plays the style of game that Adams wants to add to the top 4.

 

[Jim Bob]

Who are the most underrated defensemen in the NHL?

The Athletic's Harman Dayal shines a spotlight on 10 high-end NHL players who fly under the radar.

theathletic.com

This is an interesting list. I'm sure Sabres fans agree with one guy on it.

 

[Chainshot]

Who are the most underrated defensemen in the NHL?

The Athletic's Harman Dayal shines a spotlight on 10 high-end NHL players who fly under the radar.

theathletic.com

This is an interesting list. I'm sure Sabres fans agree with one guy on it.

Of note to that list, 2 of those guys were waiver wire guys, 3 were traded for non-premium returns (Walman, Siegenthaler, and Jensen) and one was unprotected in an expansion draft so yes, it is very much a matter of looking everywhere for contributions. Buffalo could use a Walman or Siegenthaler type of trade - finding someone who is good before they become good so they aren't paying the premium for the finished product.

That's the point. Look at everyone.

 

[TehDoak]

Of note to that list, 2 of those guys were waiver wire guys, 3 were traded for non-premium returns (Walman, Siegenthaler, and Jensen) and one was unprotected in an expansion draft so yes, it is very much a matter of looking everywhere for contributions. Buffalo could use a Walman or Siegenthaler type of trade - finding someone who is good before they become good so they aren't paying the premium for the finished product.

That's the point. Look at everyone.

I disagree at this point.

The time for taking on project D-men has passed. It's time for finished products. Our bottom pair is already overflowing with guys (Stillman, Bryson, Clague, Joker, Lybushkin). Unless they want to do some serious purging of bad d-men this summer, I don't think that is something we can fit.

 

[Chainshot]

I disagree at this point.

The time for taking on project D-men has passed. It's time for finished products. Our bottom pair is already overflowing with guys (Stillman, Bryson, Clague, Joker, Lybushkin). Unless they want to do some serious purging of bad d-men this summer, I don't think that is something we can fit.

Perhaps the better term would be "established". Younger, cost controlled defensemen who are quality come from many places, not just UFA lists. Especially not UFA lists. There are good defensemen out there who aren't going to break the bank and who aren't going to cost a pile of assets. How do I know that? Because people like Valimaki and Forsling go on waivers and guys like Siegenthaler get traded by cap strapped teams. They weren't projects, they were shrewd acquisitions.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Looking at RD UFA, sorted by TOI (excluding some obvious no's, like Klingberg/Shattenkirk)

In (X:XX) I'm including their PK TOI/game

Dumba (1:47)
Mayfield (2:52)
Holl (3:00)
Severson (1:06)
Hamonic (3:17)
Clifton (1:18)
Gudas (2:28)
E. Johnson (35+) (2:03)

Hamonic, Holl, and Mayfield seem to be taking top unit minutes on upper tier PKs (Ottawa is 8th, NYI 10th, and Toronto is 13th). Severson, Dumba, and Clifton seem to be 2nd unit guys. (though Boston's PK is #1).

Just some random thoughts when looking at the UFA class.

I've mentioned Holl a few times. He gets shit on a lot by Toronto fans, but he's been one of their top 2 PKers in terms of ice time for the past 3 or 4 seasons. His on ice goals against/60 shorthanded has also steadily improved each season regardless of the Leafs kill %. In fact his worst GA/60 would be better than all of the Sabres regular PKers this season. It would only be worse than a few who rarely PK, so there's too small of a sample size.

 

[TehDoak]

Perhaps the better term would be "established". Younger, cost controlled defensemen who are quality come from many places, not just UFA lists. Especially not UFA lists. There are good defensemen out there who aren't going to break the bank and who aren't going to cost a pile of assets. How do I know that? Because people like Valimaki and Forsling go on waivers and guys like Siegenthaler get traded by cap strapped teams. They weren't projects, they were shrewd acquisitions.

Yeah we don't need either of the bolded.

Give me the full UFA price on a reasonable term at this point. Give me someone who is experienced and can mentor these kids.

I'm fine with adding an ELC contract for Rochester, or some prospects to re-fill the d pipeline.

We have the cap space (both short and long term) to add 6-10M+ D-man. No more half measures here.

 

[Chainshot]

Yeah we don't need either of the bolded.

Give me the full UFA price on a reasonable term at this point. Give me someone who is experienced and can mentor these kids.

I'm fine with adding an ELC contract for Rochester, or some prospects to re-fill the d pipeline.

We have the cap space (both short and long term) to add 6-10M+ D-man. No more half measures here.

A cost-controlled quality defenseman who is in their age-range is not needed?

More than any UFA off the heap of this summer's UFA list, a quality assistant to work with the defensemen would be higher on my list than anyone else.

 

[Jim Bob]

Adams needs to trade for Jiricek or he's a fraud and should be fired immediately!

Am I doing it right?

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Win the Bedard lottery then trade the 1OV for Jiricek, and CLB '23 and '24 1st Rd picks with no conditions

 

[TehDoak]

A cost-controlled quality defenseman who is in their age-range is not needed?

More than any UFA off the heap of this summer's UFA list, a quality assistant to work with the defensemen would be higher on my list than anyone else.

The age-range thing, to me, has always been doublespeak from management for we want Cheap contracts.
The avalanche had Makar and Girard last year (both 23). They had a leader in Erik Johnson (33). They added Toews (27), Jack Johnson (35) and Manson (30).

We have a D core of Dahlin (22), Power (20), and Samuelsson (22). We need to add some GOOD veteran D-men to this group.

 

[Chainshot]

The age-range thing, to me, has always been doublespeak from management for we want Cheap contracts.
The avalanche had Makar and Girard last year (both 23). They had a leader in Erik Johnson (33). They added Toews (27), Jack Johnson (35) and Manson (30).

We have a D core of Dahlin (22), Power (20), and Samuelsson (22). We need to add some GOOD veteran D-men to this group.

They plucked Toews in a theft three years ago when he was 24. Similarly he Penguins brought in Marino at 22. That's the sort of value deal that gets teams far.

Also, using the Avs - One of their core defense was in-house (Makar), three were trades (Girard from Nashville, Toews the Isles, EJ from the Blues) and JJ/Manson as UFA (where Jack was originally a PTO - another value - to earn his deal, then brought back in trade this deadline).

My personal favorite, Clifton, is only 28. He was a non-tender for the Coyotes who signed an AHL deal before moving up to the Bruins. Again... value. There are a lot of paths to getting better defensemen than just "sign XYZ UFA's this summer" and the Sabres need to be moving on all those fronts.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

They plucked Toews in a theft three years ago when he was 24. Similarly he Penguins brought in Marino at 22. That's the sort of value deal that gets teams far.

Also, using the Avs - One of their core defense was in-house (Makar), three were trades (Girard from Nashville, Toews the Isles, EJ from the Blues) and JJ/Manson as UFA (where Jack was originally a PTO - another value - to earn his deal, then brought back in trade this deadline).

My personal favorite, Clifton, is only 28. He was a non-tender for the Coyotes who signed an AHL deal before moving up to the Bruins. Again... value. There are a lot of paths to getting better defensemen than just "sign XYZ UFA's this summer" and the Sabres need to be moving on all those fronts.

I don't think anybody is seriously suggesting that UFAs are the best route. This year's class - more than most years - seems weak.

But that doesn't mean they need to go bargain hunting either. Adams has everything he could ever need to swing a trade for an established player. He needs to take advantage of it.

 

[Bendium]

I disagree at this point.

The time for taking on project D-men has passed. It's time for finished products. Our bottom pair is already overflowing with guys (Stillman, Bryson, Clague, Joker, Lybushkin). Unless they want to do some serious purging of bad d-men this summer, I don't think that is something we can fit.

Please purge this set and reload it. PLEEEEEEAAAASSSSSSEEEE!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Chainshot]

I don't think anybody is seriously suggesting that UFAs are the best route. This year's class - more than most years - seems weak.

But that doesn't mean they need to go bargain hunting either. Adams has everything he could ever need to swing a trade for an established player. He needs to take advantage of it.

So per my question in the OP, you are advocating for... who?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

So per my question in the OP, you are advocating for... who?

Who is potentially available?

There were guys moved before the TDL that we either suspect or hope Adams was in on - Chychrun, Hronek, Gavrikov, Ekholm, Sandin, Orlov & so on. More guys during the previous offseason too. It's the same every year - this calibre of player is often available for the right price. Adams just needs to pony up for the right guy instead of hoping he can find a diamond in the rough or fix a reclamation project...

Of course that doesn't mean he can just pick anyone in the league & make a trade happen. But i expect some good options to be available:

- Some guys who were heavily rumoured to be moved by the TDL but didn't. Parayko sticks out here...

- Teams in the midst of a cap crunch - eg could one of Vegas' guys shake loose? I won't even mention TB since they always find a way...

- Teams looking to re-tool. Or someone with depth at the position looking to make a hockey trade? Calgary might be a good example here... Andersson/Weegar would be the dream - a guy like Hanifin more realistic...

- 2024 UFAs who might not resign - examples could be Hanifin again, Devon Toews, Gustav Forsling, one of Pesce/Skjei in Carolina...

- 2023 or 2024 RFAs due a raise - obviously more unlikely but needs to be considered. Maybe another opportunity for a hockey trade with one of our good young forwards included ? Vince Dunn is obviously pick of the bunch but there are other guys there.

- Or someone else that nobody yet knows coukd be available.

 

[Chainshot]

Sounds like the story being spun up out of Vancouver is a concern about skating that has teams scared of Livingston. Still interested in Cornell’s Sam Malinski too.